2021 Draft Lottery

[foucault87]

I hate this argument. People use it with per 36 in NBA all the time. It ignores the fact that guys are often playing against backups and the question as to why they're not getting more minutes.

Because weighted statistics are bad?

 

[CavsKermit]

So you just need sexton to shoot more from 3 and he will be much better scorer and 3 pt threat than herro right?

Don't try to sell me herro as a one dimensional shooter as a positive against sexton who does things better than herro, 3 pt shooting included.

Sexton had his best season from 3 after a hot start and slowly took fewer and fewer attempts as the season went on. He shot .400 from 3 pre all star break and .343 afterwards.

Herro had his worst season from 3 last year after shooting considerably better his rookie year. He shot .347 from 3 pre all star break and .373 afterwards.

This infinite growth curve you have for Sexton doesn't exist.

 

[CavsKermit]

Because weighted statistics are bad?

Because it ignores all the reasons that a team isn't starting a player. If it was as simple as give the player more minutes and he'll produce according to extrapolations, then teams would do that.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Patrick Williams averaged 9.2 points at FSU.

Patrick Williams College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Patrick Williams - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more

www.sports-reference.com

FSU prioritize the upperclassmen for play. Barnes and Patrick Williams had to conform their game to what FSU needed not the other way around.

One quick hit on this comparison - yes, they are similar types of prospects entering the draft.

The difference that must be factored in is that last year's draft had poor top-tier talent. It ended up a good overall draft because of depth.

This draft has both great top-tier talent and depth. Really the best top-tier draft since 2018 with Ayton, Luka and Trae - might end up better and take on 2012 status when it's all said and done.

So just because Williams was a top four pick last year doesn't necessarily make Barnes a good pick for the Cavs at #3.

I say all that as a huge Barnes fan, I just prefer him in a trade-down if the Cavs take him.

 

[Derek]

Because it ignores all the reasons that a team isn't starting a player. If it was as simple as give the player more minutes and he'll produce according to extrapolations, then teams would do that.

Barnes was FSU’s best player and played 25 mpg, which was only 4 less than their leader. The reasons for bringing him off the bench had nothing to do with any shortcomings.

 

[daddywags]

Sexton had his best season from 3 after a hot start and slowly took fewer and fewer attempts as the season went on. He shot .400 from 3 pre all star break and .343 afterwards.

Herro had his worst season from 3 last year after shooting considerably better his rookie year. He shot .347 from 3 pre all star break and .373 afterwards.

This infinite growth curve you have for Sexton doesn't exist.

I believe Sexton played injured a lot last season, especially as the season wore on.

 

[Ozone]

Sexton had his best season from 3 after a hot start and slowly took fewer and fewer attempts as the season went on. He shot .400 from 3 pre all star break and .343 afterwards.

Herro had his worst season from 3 last year after shooting considerably better his rookie year. He shot .347 from 3 pre all star break and .373 afterwards.

This infinite growth curve you have for Sexton doesn't exist.

Got a statline on how many times he passed up a three that was wide open vs double teamed, after the breakout games against the Nets?
He would do a lot better next to Green or some other floor spacer defense attention grabber and if they can shift line ups around to justify keeping Garland and Sexton with Green and Okoro
that is a solid 4 man rotation in the back court

 

[sailfish]

I hate this argument. People use it with per 36 in NBA all the time. It ignores the fact that guys are often playing against backups and the question as to why they're not getting more minutes.

All these guys are high level players on their college teams and aren’t playing if the game is a blowout, assuming that’s what you mean about playing against backups. Some of these teams are deeper than others, however, so the minutes can vary. Looking at the per 40 minutes stats gives you an apples to apples comparison of their impact on the game over a specific time period. The one outlier might be a guy who is surrounded by talent versus a guy who is on a weak team that has to do everything.

 

[Ozone]

I believe Sexton played injured a lot last season, especially as the season wore on.

I mean we know he had a groin issue but imo coaching has something to do with it.I think since both guards passed up threes more than they should have all season, although Sexton did it for defensive attention reasons imo mostly and Garland did it to make a better % play to a big or because he lacked confidence in his shot

 

[CavsKermit]

Got a statline on how many times he passed up a three that was wide open vs double teamed, after the breakout games against the Nets?
He would do a lot better next to Green or some other floor spacer defense attention grabber and if they can shift line ups around to justify keeping Garland and Sexton with Green and Okoro
that is a solid 4 man rotation in the back court

Sexton won't be starting if he's still on the roster when the season begins which is why it's best to move him before we get to that point.

In terms of contested threes, they keep stats on that. You're free to look them up yourself. But Sexton was rarely doubled at the three point line. Most of the *doubling* on Sexton resulted from him driving into a crowded paint. Sexton was occasionally trapped when the other team needed a turnover because his handle is a bit a lose and he isn't good at anticipation.

 

[sailfish]

Barnes was FSU’s best player and played 25 mpg, which was only 4 less than their leader. The reasons for bringing him off the bench had nothing to do with any shortcomings.

Bingo.

 

[daytripper]

Sexton had his best season from 3 after a hot start and slowly took fewer and fewer attempts as the season went on. He shot .400 from 3 pre all star break and .343 afterwards.

Herro had his worst season from 3 last year after shooting considerably better his rookie year. He shot .347 from 3 pre all star break and .373 afterwards.

This infinite growth curve you have for Sexton doesn't exist.

Herro has only played two seasons and regressed his 2nd season. I guarantee most Cav fans would have their pitchforks out if one of our young players (Sexton, Garland, Okoro) were to regress so much. The difference is our players are all hard workers that get better every season. Herro spends more time living his best life with insta models in Miami than trying to improve on his weaknesses. Despite the crappy season in terms of wins, our young players are already back in the gym trying to get better.

If Pat Riley is willing to trade a player so soon coming off the bubble success you have to know there is a huge issue.
Edit: Last time Riley dumped a young 2nd/3rd player with 'potential' was Beasley..

 

[foucault87]

Sexton won't be starting if he's still on the roster when the season begins which is why it's best to move him before we get to that point.

In terms of contested threes, they keep stats on that. You're free to look them up yourself. But Sexton was rarely doubled at the three point line. Most of the *doubling* on Sexton resulted from him driving into a crowded paint. Sexton was occasionally trapped when the other team needed a turnover because his handle is a bit a lose and he isn't good at anticipation.

You haven't watched a game this year have you?

 

[inliner311]

One quick hit on this comparison - yes, they are similar types of prospects entering the draft.

The difference that must be factored in is that last year's draft had poor top-tier talent. It ended up a good overall draft because of depth.

This draft has both great top-tier talent and depth. Really the best top-tier draft since 2018 with Ayton, Luka and Trae - might end up better and take on 2012 status when it's all said and done.

So just because Williams was a top four pick last year doesn't necessarily make Barnes a good pick for the Cavs at #3.

I say all that as a huge Barnes fan, I just prefer him in a trade-down if the Cavs take him.

I agree I think Barnes should be looked at with a trade down. I would say I'd prefer a trade down with hopefully Orlando if Mobley gets taken by Houston and we are left with Green. I think the fit and overlapping talent of Green warrants debating to trade down and go after better fits.

Im just not sure who pairs well with Barnes and the rest of the roster at #8 if we can get #5 and #8 from Orlando.

Who would everyone like at #8 if we can trade down and get both #5&#8?

 

[Randolphkeys]

I agree I think Barnes should be looked at with a trade down. I would say I'd prefer a trade down with hopefully Orlando if Mobley gets taken by Houston and we are left with Green. I think the fit and overlapping talent of Green warrants debating to trade down and go after better fits.

Im just not sure who pairs well with Barnes and the rest of the roster at #8 if we can get #5 and #8 from Orlando.

Who would everyone like at #8 if we can trade down and get both #5&#8?

We agree that a trade down is a strong option if Mobley goes to Houston. I love Suggs, but he should be a lock at 4. I'm stoked for a Barnes/Sengun combo at 5 & 8. Wagner and Johnson are also great options.