2021 Draft Prospects Thread

[AZ_]

Or...

They could resign Conklin and not worry about a replacement until 2024 or 2025 or even 2026.

Sure, but the salary cap is going down in the short term.

With all four other lineman including Jed Wills needing new contracts before your proposed extension here.

You're going to have to prepare your self for this type of inevitability.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Or...

They could resign Conklin and not worry about a replacement until 2024 or 2025 or even 2026.

Right...but you don't know if that can happen until you're right at the edge. And if you need a replacement then, it is really going to cost you. There also remains the issue of that swing tackle position that needs to be filled now that Hubbard is likely done. I think it makes more sense to have that swing guy also be the guy you're developing.

We just seem much better long-term on the interior of the line than we are at the tackle positions. If you do it right, and with a guy like Callahan, you should be able to set up a pipeline of younger, cheaper talent to move into the OL over the years, without spending big bucks or high draft picks. I just think that is the most sustainable model in the long term.

 

[col63onel]

Correct.

While it was reported as a 3-year deal (and for practical purposes it was), the Browns technically signed Conklin to a 5-year deal with two automatic void years in 2023/2024 tacked on the end so they could stretch his bonus money out over five years instead of three.

I have a feeling Conklin would do something like a 4/5 year deal after 2023. He clearly signed this deal with the intent at getting back into FA at age 28. Getting some guaranteed money through his age 32/33 season might be appealing. I don't see him signing another short deal to get back in FA at age 30 or so. Maybe something around 15 a year average value that we can get out of 3 years without a lot of dead money.

 

[CBBI]

Sure, but the salary cap is going down in the short term.

With all four other lineman including Jed Wills needing new contracts before your proposed extension here.

You're going to have to prepare yourself for this type of inevitability.

Snarkiness aside, I am prepared for this.

Let's address a few things.

1. The salary cap is going down this offseason. That's factual. But even the most pessimistic projections seem to believe it's going to be a 2 year issue at most and a lot of people think things will be back to business as usual by 2022. Is that the case? We'll see.

2. A contract extension for Jed Wills wouldn't even kick in until 2025 most likely, so IMO that is not something we need to really worry about in regards to Conklin potentially being on the roster in 2023 and 2024.

3. I already said I think Tretter is going to be replaced by Harris in 2022. That's 10M in savings on the OL right there. I also think it's very likely that 2021 is Teller's last year in Cleveland as well given a variety of factors. Assuming 2021 is going to be both of those player's last in Cleveland and they're going to be replaced by cheaper options, I think it's arguably even more important to ensure Conklin remains in town even if costs big $.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

What is everybody's hierarchy in terms of positional needs?

RB/QB
TE
OL
WR
DL
LB
DB

That goes from lowest need to highest need, IMO. OL is just not a need right now.

I hate drafting for need, but at the same time, if there's no room to develop the talent, it's not a wise investment. So, for me, tight end is the lowest "need" because there just isn't an opportunity for a tight end to come in, make the roster, and develop at the same rate as a player who wouldn't be fourth on the depth chart.

I think nearly every other position is available, except guard. Bitonio, Teller, Forbes, and the rest of our depth makes it difficult to see drafting a guard-only player in the first four rounds.

 

[CBBI]

Say whatever you want about Baker Mayfield and his ability to be an elite QB or whatever else, but one thing that is factual is that he has one of the widest gaps in the entire NFL when it comes to succeeding without pressure v. not succeeding under pressure.

Mayfield is one of the very best QB's in the league in a clean pocket and one of the worst under pressure.

If the Browns are going to move forward with him on a long-term contract like so many on this board want them to do, then significant investment in the OL, even at bigger financial numbers than would normally be deemed appropriate, seems like a must.

I understand it would be very difficult to keep this OL together financially, but the fewer moving pieces the better IMO.

I hate to sound like that blowhard dickhead Pete Smith, but gun to my head if I had to pick which 15M a year player to move forward with, I would pick Conklin 10 times out of 10 over Beckham or Landry given Mayfield's issues with pressure.

Fair or not, I think Mayfield's ability to handle pressure (or lack thereof) is going to be something that Berry keeps in the forefront of his mind when he's building out the offensive line on a year-to-year basis.

 

[AZ_]

Snarkiness aside, I am prepared for this.

Let's address a few things.

1. The salary cap is going down this offseason. That's factual. But even the most pessimistic projections seem to believe it's going to be a 2 year issue at most and a lot of people think things will be back to business as usual by 2022. Is that the case? We'll see.

2. A contract extension for Jed Wills wouldn't even kick in until 2025 most likely, so IMO that is not something we need to really worry about in regards to Conklin potentially being on the roster in 2023 and 2024.

3. I already said I think Tretter is going to be replaced by Harris in 2022. That's 10M in savings on the OL right there. I also think it's very likely that 2021 is Teller's last year in Cleveland as well given a variety of factors. Assuming 2021 is going to be both of those player's last in Cleveland and they're going to be replaced by cheaper options, I think it's arguably even more important to ensure Conklin remains in town even if costs big $.

Even Harris would be getting a new contract at the end of 2023.

Its just way too far out there to project needing to keep Conklin, which ultimately becomes less necessary if you keep developing talent behind him.

Its about giving yourself options.

 

[CBBI]

Even Harris would be getting a new contract at the end of 2023.

Its just way too far out there to project needing to keep Conklin, which ultimately becomes less necessary if you keep developing talent behind him.

Its about giving yourself options.

No argument with that. Options are always preferred.

I am just trying and prioritize what is right in front of us.

The Browns lack playable bodies, both starters and depth, at every level of the defense. They arguably lack long-term answers at WR and OG too depending on what happens with Teller. One of the few areas I'm very confident that the Browns are set for the next two years is offensive tackle.

If the no questions asked best player on the board in the 3rd round is tackle? So be it. Pick him.

The Browns will *eventually* need a replacement for Conklin, but to me it's far enough away that the odds are high there will be equally talented players at other positions that will contribute sooner.

I just don't see it as a major priority at the moment.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Say whatever you want about Baker Mayfield and his ability to be an elite QB or whatever else, but one thing that is factual is that he has one of the widest gaps in the entire NFL when it comes to succeeding without pressure v. not succeeding under pressure.

Mayfield is one of the very best QB's in the league in a clean pocket and one of the worst under pressure.

If the Browns are going to move forward with him on a long-term contract like so many on this board want them to do, then significant investment in the OL, even at bigger financial numbers than would normally be deemed appropriate, seems like a must.

I understand it would be very difficult to keep this OL together financially, but the fewer moving pieces the better IMO.

I hate to sound like that blowhard dickhead Pete Smith, but gun to my head if I had to pick which 15M a year player to move forward with, I would pick Conklin 10 times out of 10 over Beckham or Landry given Mayfield's issues with pressure.

Fair or not, I think Mayfield's ability to handle pressure (or lack thereof) is going to be something that Berry keeps in the forefront of his mind when he's building out the offensive line on a year-to-year basis.

in all fairness, the inability to succeed under pressure is something that I believe developed his 2nd year in the NFL. In college he was absolutely great when faced with the blitz. Not saying he will return to "great", but i do think its something that he can re-develop

 

[CBBI]

in all fairness, the inability to succeed under pressure is something that I believe developed his 2nd year in the NFL. In college he was absolutely great when faced with the blitz. Not saying he will return to "great", but i do think its something that he can re-develop

There’s a significant difference between being good against the blitz and good under pressure though. If I said against pressure instead of under pressure by mistake then that’s on me.

Being good against the blitz simply means a QB has success when the defense sends more than 4 rushers. It has nothing to do with if they actually create pressure or not.

 

[bob2the2nd]

There’s a significant difference between being good against the blitz and good under pressure though. If I said against pressure instead of under pressure by mistake then that’s on me.

Being good against the blitz simply means a QB has success when the defense sends more than 4 rushers. It has nothing to do with if they actually create pressure or not.

yes because i imagine there is 0 correlation to blitzing and pressuring the QB???

edit: in fact baker was 3rd in the nation in IQR his senior year of college when faced with pressure.

so yeah I have hopes he can turn things around

 

[Randolphkeys]

yes because i imagine there is 0 correlation to blitzing and pressuring the QB???

edit: in fact baker was 3rd in the nation in IQR his senior year of college when faced with pressure.

so yeah I have hopes he can turn things around

I would question that statistic because Baker had a pretty cushy situation at Oklahoma. He had an NFL caliber surrounding cast at Oklahoma. The only guy who hasn't had a successful NFL career was the center, who became an offensive line coach at the school.

He rarely felt any pressure in college unless a defense blitzed and exposed a huge hole in the secondary. When the defense did blitz, he had starting NFL caliber playmakers facing single coverage.

 

[CBBI]

yes because i imagine there is 0 correlation to blitzing and pressuring the QB???

edit: in fact baker was 3rd in the nation in IQR his senior year of college when faced with pressure.

so yeah I have hopes he can turn things around

No see you're still missing the point. Just because a team blitzes doesn't mean that they put the QB under duress. Blitzes get successfully picked up all the time.

Let's say you're a QB. The defense sends a blitz of 5 guys. Your running back picks up the blitz perfectly and no one gets near and and you go on to complete a long pass. You've just completed a pass against pressure, but you didn't complete a pass under pressure because you weren't under duress to make the throw.

Let's say the defense sends the house, 7 or 8 guys. If you throw a hot route immediately upon receiving the snap way before the defense gets anywhere close to you, that is completion against pressure, not a completion under pressure.

Baker's stats against pressure in 2020 were fine. His stats under pressure were very bad.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Say whatever you want about Baker Mayfield and his ability to be an elite QB or whatever else, but one thing that is factual is that he has one of the widest gaps in the entire NFL when it comes to succeeding without pressure v. not succeeding under pressure.

Mayfield is one of the very best QB's in the league in a clean pocket and one of the worst under pressure.

If the Browns are going to move forward with him on a long-term contract like so many on this board want them to do, then significant investment in the OL, even at bigger financial numbers than would normally be deemed appropriate, seems like a must.

I understand it would be very difficult to keep this OL together financially, but the fewer moving pieces the better IMO.

I hate to sound like that blowhard dickhead Pete Smith, but gun to my head if I had to pick which 15M a year player to move forward with, I would pick Conklin 10 times out of 10 over Beckham or Landry given Mayfield's issues with pressure.

Fair or not, I think Mayfield's ability to handle pressure (or lack thereof) is going to be something that Berry keeps in the forefront of his mind when he's building out the offensive line on a year-to-year basis.

I was just thinking this the other day. If we commit to Baker and sign him to an extension, we absolutely MUST maintain a strong offensive line. That will be #1 priority over anything else on the offense.

Also, I hope our assistant coaches are being indoctrinated in Bill Callahan's expertise. I want to keep this going for DECADES.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I hate drafting for need, but at the same time, if there's no room to develop the talent, it's not a wise investment. So, for me, tight end is the lowest "need" because there just isn't an opportunity for a tight end to come in, make the roster, and develop at the same rate as a player who wouldn't be fourth on the depth chart.

I think nearly every other position is available, except guard. Bitonio, Teller, Forbes, and the rest of our depth makes it difficult to see drafting a guard-only player in the first four rounds.

Literally the only way I'd take a TE in this draft is if Pitts somehow fell to our first pick, which he won't.