2021 NBA Draft Safari

[I'mWithDan]

Makes sense...

Although...

Were Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook elite scorers? his archetype aren't necessarily elite scorers out of the gate.

They weren't but they also played in a very different era IMO. It is tough to get excited about a PG prospect who can't shoot at an elite level right now.

To be fair, Suggs data isn't bad......I was just pointing out that relative to how easy it is to find a PG, his profile isn't one that screams he should be drafted in the top 3 for example.

So it isn't saying he is bad. He actually profiles above an average 1st round guard.....but you just see the exponentially higher offensive level guys like Dame and Kyrie played at....someone like JA had similar numbers to those guys, Trae as well.......and you additionally see how much more efficient they were as scorers. To me, it is concerning Suggs lags so considerably given the talent around him....and the fact that not only is he not a great outside shooter but he also does not generate FT's at the rate you typically see from elite guard prospects. The number that really stands out with Suggs is, for someone who finishes around the rim, his FTA per 2PFGA is exceptionally low for a lead guard type. Out of the recent guys (Lillard, Steph, Trae, Kyrie, Ja, etc.), his number there is by far the lowest.......which is a concerning marker relative to his 3PT%.......as you typically need at least one of those to score at an elite rate as a smaller player.

I do really like his all around game but he would be a guy, if I were a GM, who I would be really uneasy taking over guys like Green. Because there's a decent chance that he's just a really good player but lacks some of the offensive pop to be a star guard.

 

[I'mWithDan]

14 points and 50% shooting isnt elite for a freshman on a loaded team? His only non elite stat is 3 point shooting at 33%, but he takes 3.4 a game.

Dame his freshman year at a mid major scored only 11.5 on 43% shooting. He was a better 3 point shooter, but still only 37%. Suggs was a far better scorer than Dame as a freshman and passing isnt even close, and Suggs is on a much bigger stage.

Ja scored 12.7 as a Freshman on 46% shooting and 31% from 3 point. He did have very good passing numbers though.

Kyrie didnt have a freshman season really.

Not sure you are proving your point on him. He is so calm, smooth, vision. I really like Suggs. This is such a loaded class.

I am always beating the drum that development is never linear though......and I see little evidence that NBA outcomes are defined by age. From what I see, they are most reliably defined by production the year you enter the draft. That is why I really don't prescribe to the "when X player was a freshman" line of thinking.......because the leap from scoring at 40+ PP100 (like Steph) and 26 PP100 (Suggs), is such a colossal gap, that any single prospect cannot reliably close it with any sort of certainty in my opinion, even if they have more time.

I also think that line of thinking assumes improvement when in reality, the opposite could be true as well. It is possible he's not even as good of a scorer as he has shown and that his offensive numbers are inflated by operating with ideal spacing and with high level shooters able to convert his opportunities to assists. We won't know until he does something at a high level, like score........and guys who do it in college, regardless of age, succeed at exponentially higher rates than guys that don't.

That isn't to say Suggs won't succeed.......I just like the phrase "the data is the data". Even Kyrie as a freshman, granted in a smaller subset of games, was just so far out there in comparison to Suggs.....in every shooting / scoring / FT generation metric. I just wanted to point it out......that I think Suggs is possibly the "you won't get fired drafting this guy but you're also not going to build a team around him" type of player. Like, Mike Conley esque career is a possibility with him, relative to how he grades in comparison to other elite guard prospects.

 

["MVP"]

Based on current mocks?

I'd prefer Sengun, Wagner out of the guys I see mocked lower than 8. Not sure I'd even take Ziaire in the lottery. Watched him in high school and had big-time concerns that were not eased at all during his freshman season. I don't believe he has star potential.

1a. Mobley
1b. Green
3. Suggs
4. Cunningham
5. Kuminga
6. Barnes
7. Johnson
8. Sengun (could move up as I have a chance to see more)
9. Wagner
10. Moody

Guys later in the draft (no specific order):
Davion Mitchell
Neemias Queta
Joel Ayayi
Daishen Nix
Jay Huff
Quentin Grimes
Isaiah Livers

My big board is nearly identical to this, but I have Kuminga & Barnes flipped, and with Davion Mitchell at 9 and Jaden Springer at 10. I think Mitchell is too similar to Sexton and not nearly as good to really make sense for us, but I'd be excited with any of the other options.

I have really wanted to get on board with both Wagner and Moody. Two longer, athletic wings that theoretically fit really well in the modern NBA. But I've left feeling underwhelmed every time I've watched them. Doesn't help that Wagner was just awful with all eyes on him last night and Moody was disappointing throughout the tournament.

 

[NtG]

When I watched Green's highlights, he reminded me of KPJ.

 

[foucault87]

I like Suggs a lot. My quick board for the top 7. I might write more thoughts later.

Mobley
Green
Cade
Suggs
Kuminga
Barnes
Wagner

These are the guys I'm convinced will be good. I think Sengun is probably 8 on there, in the same tier as Wagner and Barnes. Nathan has really sold me on him.

My question is, whats with Jalen Johnson? I know his kit is really exciting but the character issues are a big red flag for me. I would feel more comfortable taking him (or a similar player) in a few years once the blue collar culture of our team is more established. I think it is too fledgling to risk on a lottery pick right now (as we saw with KPJ).

 

[Nathan S]

I noticed that Eurobasket.com actually maintains a top-100 ranking of European basketball clubs. It's not perfect, but it's good enough to help put prospect production in context. Here I've arranged the top teams by their Eurobasket.com rating (vertical axis) and country (horizontal axis).

Spain pretty clearly has the most talent; this is why Garuba still frequents the first round of most mocks despite averaging just 4 points and 4 rebounds per game. This is also why I was so high on Doncic pre-draft; he wasn't putting up big numbers and winning MVP just anywhere, he was doing it in Europe's strongest league.

Turkey arguably comes in #2, though Italy might have something to say about that. Sengun's team, Besiktas, ranks 6th out of all Turkish teams, and 48th overall in Europe.

By the time you get down to Israel and Lithuania, things start to look significantly different. These are still legit pro leagues with some depth, but prospects like Deni for Maccabi and Jokubaitis for Zalgiris never have to face any of Europe's truly elite teams in domestic competition. The level of competition here is more similar to major-conference NCAA competition.

If you keep going, you see a few more leagues of note. Serbia, like Israel and Lithuania, lacks a single elite club but does put a respectable 6 teams in the top-100. Jokic is a good example of a player who developed there.

Top clubs from Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, and Slovenia typically compete against each other in the regional Adriatic League, which is comparable to, say, the French or Greek league. This allows prospects like Roko Prkacin in Croatia to face somewhat stronger competition than he sees domestically in Croatia, where the level of competition is probably similar to mid-major NCAA basketball.

One last thing to note is that even the best team in Spain's 2nd league doesn't crack the top-100 teams in Europe. This is true for all 2nd leagues, so guys like Juhann Begarin (French 2nd league) should be viewed with caution; they're facing something like low-major NCAA competition. This doesn't mean players from those leagues can't be good (Giannis played in the Greek 2nd league), but you definitely can't take their stats at face value.

 

[Futuredome]

1.Green
2.Mobley
3.Kuminga
4.Cal C
5.Suggs
6.Barnes

 

[MD13]

Compared to the other two, Suggs has a very projectable shot either when stationary or off the dribble. I think he is going to be a pretty good 3pt shooter.

I can definitely see that and I agree to an extent. I think @I'mWithDan has touched on this point as well, but the way to be an elite player as a PG is almost purely through being an elite scorer and good (or better) playmaker. With the prevalence of off the dribble 3's to provide spacing and beat non-switching defensive coverages, the NBA has gone away from Kidd archetypes. Even with the added value of being a good defender/rebounder/playmaker, those are all secondary to being a #1 option scorer. The spacing for teams almost doesn't work in today's game unless your PG is a very good shooter.

The game is just so much more forgiving when you're a 6'7-6'10 athletic combo forward. I'm very confident that Barnes will be an excellent player if he can just hit the 38% mark on catch and shoot 3s, forget shooting off the dribble.

 

[Nathan S]

One really confusing thing to me about this draft is that James Bouknight is routinely mocked above Cam Thomas. I'm not really trying to start an argument, I just can't think of a single reason to prefer Bouknight, other than maybe he's slightly less bad on defense. Anyone have any insights on this?

 

[Derek]

One really confusing thing to me about this draft is that James Bouknight is routinely mocked above Cam Thomas. I'm not really trying to start an argument, I just can't think of a single reason to prefer Bouknight, other than maybe he's slightly less bad on defense. Anyone have any insights on this?

Probably just one of those things where the mocks haven't caught up to reality yet

This summer, people will be talking about Thomas as a guy shooting up draft boards while Bouknight is falling.

 

[Nathan S]

Probably just one of those things where the mocks haven't caught up to reality yet

This summer, people will be talking about Thomas as a guy shooting up draft boards while Bouknight is falling.

Looking more into it, I guess Bouknight had a relatively strong finish to his freshman season, and that got him in the mock draft conversation going into this season. The anticipated jump in scoring happened, but the nascent point guard skills people were talking about apparently didn't materialize.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I don't do a ton of big board stuff......I more so am really interested in how prospect bands appear in mocks.......and what guys might be undervalued relative to their production vs. historical bench marks. This is Kevin O'Conner's big board, from The Ringer.

GS - Total Impact
GS/ADJ - Impact Less Scoring
PDIFF - Impact relative to historical position data

I think this is a pretty common top 14-15. Maybe only Dosunmu is slightly overrated.......but some version of 1-14 seems to be more of a consensus here thus far.

Data is still saying Mobley is the only elite analytical profile here......and there's really no one edging even close to one. It is pretty curious no one else got over that 1.1 mark in PDIFF.......typically you get several per lottery. Barnes, Johnson and Franz tend to all be really underrated by people, relative to their production and NBA position.

Kuminga and Keon are the classic tools over production guys you see in the middle of the lottery. It always makes me chuckle that that purple band will be there no matter what. Tools are irresistible in the mid lotto.

I still think Green's numbers are most impressive......just profiling as an average 1st round SG against pro competition. LaMelo performed well against pro competition and was ready to play right away.....curious if Green will be similar.

I know Cade gets a luke warm response here but he landed in the average band in all 3 calculations......JUST average you say? Yes, it is actually very impressive for a wing prospect. People love Barnes but even he fell short of that universal baseline in all 3. Franz and Johnson both hit that as well, which speaks to the potential wing talent in this draft. 4 truly good wing players in the top 12 or so picks is exceptionally good relative to past drafts.

Looking at the history of the wing position in the possession era, relative to their PDIFF scores, the 2021 NBA draft will have 4 of the top 40 drafted players in that metric, all-time. If you isolate for just lottery wings, it is even more exciting......4 of the top 22. So prior to this draft, you typically would only get 1.5 of those truly good wing profiles in an average lottery year. This one has 4......which is hopefully a good omen, if the Cavs don't have lottery luck.

 

[Nathan S]

I don't do a ton of big board stuff......I more so am really interested in how prospect bands appear in mocks.......and what guys might be undervalued relative to their production vs. historical bench marks. This is Kevin O'Conner's big board, from The Ringer.

I think this is a pretty common top 14-15. Maybe only Dosunmu is slightly overrated.......but some version of 1-14 seems to be more of a consensus here thus far.

Data is still saying Mobley is the only elite analytical profile here......and there's really no one edging even close to one. It is pretty curious no one else got over that 1.1 mark in PDIFF.......typically you get several per lottery. Barnes, Johnson and Franz tend to all be really underrated by people, relative to their production and NBA position.

Kuminga and Keon are the classic tools over production guys you see in the middle of the lottery. It always makes me chuckle that that purple band will be there no matter what. Tools are irresistible in the mid lotto.

I still think Green's numbers are most impressive......just profiling as an average 1st round SG against pro competition. LaMelo performed well against pro competition and was ready to play right away.....curious if Green will be similar.

I know Cade gets a luke warm response here but he landed in the average band in all 3 calculations......JUST average you say? Yes, it is actually very impressive for a wing prospect. People love Barnes but even he fell short of that universal baseline in all 3. Franz and Johnson both hit that as well, which speaks to the potential wing talent in this draft. 4 truly good wing players in the top 12 or so picks is exceptionally good relative to past drafts.

Looking at the history of the wing position in the possession era, relative to their PDIFF scores, the 2021 NBA draft will have 4 of the top 40 drafted players in that metric, all-time. If you isolate for just lottery wings, it is even more exciting......4 of the top 22. So prior to this draft, you typically would only get 1.5 of those truly good wing profiles in an average lottery year. This one has 4......which is hopefully a good omen, if the Cavs don't have lottery luck.

This is great stuff; would you mind adding a few more guys who're occasionally found in the lottery of various mock drafts?

Sengun (you saw that coming )
Williams
Nix
Thomas
Christopher
Garuba

Here are per-100 numbers for the international guys:

	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	Height	Age (1/1/2021)
Usman Garuba	63	31	961.6	5.441001987	11.58406875	0.4696969697	4.09537784	6.962142327	0.5882352941	1.345624147	4.621926419	0.2911392405	1.52114034	2.749753692	0.5531914894	4.738937214	10.2384446	14.97738181	2.925269885	2.281710511	1.872172727	3.159291476	6.611109941	13.74876846	80	18.8
Alperen Sengun	29	27	831.1	13.20808844	20.48864451	0.6446540881	12.95036964	19.07119111	0.6790540541	0.2577187988	1.417453394	0.1818181818	10.17989255	12.95036964	0.7860696517	7.344985767	9.600025256	16.94501102	4.574508679	2.448328589	3.092625586	4.187930481	5.927532373	36.85378823	82	18.4

 

[DeeThree]

I really want Suggs

Jalen Suggs - NBADraft.net

Specializing in drafts with top players on the NBA horizon, player profiles, scouting reports, rankings and prospective international recruits.

www.nbadraft.net

How would Mobley fit on the Cavs?

 

[DeeThree]

Here's my current projections for the upcoming draft..

Tier A (superstar potential):

Jalen Suggs
Jalen Green
Cade Cunningham
Evan Mobley

Tier B (star or near star potential)

Jonathan Kuminga

Yeah , I agree with that.