2021 NBA Draft Safari

[Mcreek]

Just trade the pick now. A 7th or 8th pick won’t help this franchise move forward. Another year to tank and hope to get back on the top 5 next year is a guarantee .personally I would package the pick with Sexton to get another young player or move up in this draft . All the impact players gone leaves Cavz with nothing more than a project at 7 or 8. Knowing The Cavz they will draft another 6’2” guard like Davion Mitchell

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

If all things went ideally for each prospects development/potential, how do you guys rank these guys for their best case scenario ceiling?

Dont think fit, dont worry about draft order or team needs. If each guy got to a coach and program where they are optimally developed with perfect fit around them, how do you see their ceiling?

Here is my top 10 ceilings:

1. Mobley
2. Green
3. Kuminga
4. Suggs
5. Barnes
6. Cade
7. Jalen Johnson
8. Keon Johnson
9. Kai Jones
10. Moody

 

[MirORich]

Just a few reminders:

-Yes, our floor went down by one spot to a worst case scenario of 9 instead of a worst case scenario of 8
-And yes, if neither us our OKC moves into the top 4 on lotto night, than they pick before us. Could be them 5 and us 6. Could be them 6 and us 7, etc.

However:

-Our odds of moving up to #1 or into top4 did not lessen as a result of this coin flip loss
-If OKC moves up into the top4, the coin flip loss may not affect us at all(dependent on who else jumps in to the top4)

We've had good luck in the lottery: 2011, 2013, and 2014
We've had shit luck in the lottery: 2019 and 2020

We'll see what plays out in about a month. Prepping for any one slot is actually pointless. We should still be making scenarios for the fact that we could literally pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. So there is no projected lotto pick that is not worth discussing as they are in still in play until we know the actual results on lotto night.

 

[MirORich]

If all things went ideally for each prospects development/potential, how do you guys rank these guys for their best case scenario ceiling?

Dont think fit, dont worry about draft order or team needs. If each guy got to a coach and program where they are optimally developed with perfect fit around them, how do you see their ceiling?

Here is my top 10 ceilings:

1. Mobley
2. Green
3. Kuminga
4. Suggs
5. Barnes
6. Cade
7. Jalen Johnson
8. Keon Johnson
9. Kai Jones
10. Moody

My only question/concern with this I guess is how many bigs would you include in the top10 players currently in the NBA? Lets say the answer is AD and Jokic. Do you think Mobley can be at that level if he hits his ceiling? Then looking at the wings in this draft, do you think any can reach the Kawhi/Jimmy Butler level if they reach their ceilings?

I love Mobley, just trying to sort out whether I think his game if he hits his ceiling would be more impactful to winning in todays NBA than Cade, Barnes, or Kuminga if they hit their highest end ceiling?

That said, if the Cavs picked 1-3 and selected Mobley, I would have ZERO issue with it.

 

[MirORich]

Just trade the pick now. A 7th or 8th pick won’t help this franchise move forward. Another year to tank and hope to get back on the top 5 next year is a guarantee .personally I would package the pick with Sexton to get another young player or move up in this draft . All the impact players gone leaves Cavz with nothing more than a project at 7 or 8. Knowing The Cavz they will draft another 6’2” guard like Davion Mitchell

If you want another tank, the answer is to draft another young player, give him 35 mpg right out of the bat and watch the losses compile. Trading the pick for a vet is actually less likely to result in a tank and more likely to lower our long term ceiling.

 

[Cavatt]

My only question/concern with this I guess is how many bigs would you include in the top10 players currently in the NBA? Lets say the answer is AD and Jokic. Do you think Mobley can be at that level if he hits his ceiling? Then looking at the wings in this draft, do you think any can reach the Kawhi/Jimmy Butler level if they reach their ceilings?

I love Mobley, just trying to sort out whether I think his game if he hits his ceiling would be more impactful to winning in todays NBA than Cade, Barnes, or Kuminga if they hit their highest end ceiling?

That said, if the Cavs picked 1-3 and selected Mobley, I would have ZERO issue with it.

Hollinger says don't draft a center in the top 10. I don't think Philly is upset though. Is Mobely a potential MVP candidate? Way too early to tell.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

My only question/concern with this I guess is how many bigs would you include in the top10 players currently in the NBA? Lets say the answer is AD and Jokic. Do you think Mobley can be at that level if he hits his ceiling? Then looking at the wings in this draft, do you think any can reach the Kawhi/Jimmy Butler level if they reach their ceilings?

I love Mobley, just trying to sort out whether I think his game if he hits his ceiling would be more impactful to winning in todays NBA than Cade, Barnes, or Kuminga if they hit their highest end ceiling?

That said, if the Cavs picked 1-3 and selected Mobley, I would have ZERO issue with it.

I dont compare him to Embiid or Jokic, I compare him to Bosh, AD or JJJ

I believe he can guard 1-5 right now and his best position when he gets to the pros will be as a 4 in the same mold as Bosh or Jaren Jackson Jr. He doesnt have the offensive skillset AD showed by this time but I believe he can show Bosh's offensive skillset as he develops.

 

[Henry Tuttle]

What the hell is the point in waiting another month to do the actual lottery? Wouldn't it be at least somewhat helpful to have an extra month to prepare for your actual draft position? It definitely wouldn't hurt!

 

[I'mWithDan]

If all things went ideally for each prospects development/potential, how do you guys rank these guys for their best case scenario ceiling?

I would probably land somewhere in this ballpark.

1. Cade
2. Green
3. Mobley
4. Barnes
5. Suggs
6. Sengun
7. Wagner
8. Kuminga
9-10. There's too many guys in this slot

I honestly don't love Kuminga's ceiling from what I personally see. I think all of the guys above him have exhibited playmaking skills that he has not. And the likelihood Kuminga's ceiling involves a developed playmaking game, I think, is probably pretty low.

I don't know, maybe I am reacting too much to a small sample size but when you see his production vs. a lot of guys my stuff was high on last year, who ended up in the G-League (and produced), there is just a wide gulf there. Guys like Nwora, Reed.....who were standouts against that competition level. Kuminga is younger obviously but I thought it was somewhat concerning how he didn't really do anything that stood out statistically on a per 100 basis.....it was just all "meh".

I would put Cade & Green ahead of Mobley, as I think if everything goes right, those guys can be offensive engines.....whereas Mobley is more like Bosh or Bosh+.......a great player but I'm not sure his ceiling is that of a truly transcendent offensive player. Maybe I am wrong there though.

I also think this is a pretty interesting class, where the ceilings kind of 6-12 are all in the same area code. I had trouble picking once I got past Suggs but if I had to bet on guys in that group, relative to their production and age, it would probably be Sengun & Wagner.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I would put Cade & Green ahead of Mobley, as I think if everything goes right, those guys can be offensive engines.....whereas Mobley is more like Bosh or Bosh+.......a great player but I'm not sure his ceiling is that of a truly transcendent offensive player. Maybe I am wrong there though.

The more I am watching on Green I believe he has truly transcendent offensive player upside.

You ranked Barnes ahead of Suggs... I want to but I cant get over the Westbrook with a jumper offensive flashes Suggs showed early in the season and then in the Championship game when his teammates like Kispert and Ajayi were pissing their leg, he still impacted the game on both ends once he got past that early foul trouble. He's tough, he's talented and he's got good feel for both ends.

I want to say their intangibles are similar and then I would give the nod to Barnes for his size, but Suggs if he can develop that jumper and really weaponize it... watch out

 

[MD13]

So one thing I still don't have a clue of is why Davion Mitchell is now a consensus top 10 pick? To be honest I'd even be surprised with him in the late lottery. Seems to me he's got so many red flags that usually lead to people like him being drafted in the back half of the 1st, but just because Baylor won everyone now has him on top.

He's small (6'1"), old (22), he wasn't even the main go-to creator on his team (at the very least split roles with Butler), he had a sudden huge jump in 3pt% that wasn't backed up by a FT% increase (consistently mid 60's). I get that people love the intangibles and everything, but how does that make him a head and shoulders better prospect than guys like Jalen Brunson, accomplished college guards who could be really good picks in the 20s or later?

edit: to be clear I'm not even arguing whether he as a player is worth the draft slot or not. I'm just arguing that clearly, to pick him top 10, NBA teams would have to go against a ton of history and bias against prospects like him.

 

[Nathan S]

So one thing I still don't have a clue of is why Davion Mitchell is now a consensus top 10 pick? To be honest I'd even be surprised with him in the late lottery. Seems to me he's got so many red flags that usually lead to people like him being drafted in the back half of the 1st, but just because Baylor won everyone now has him on top.

He's small (6'1"), old (22), he wasn't even the main go-to creator on his team (at the very least split roles with Butler), he had a sudden huge jump in 3pt% that wasn't backed up by a FT% increase (consistently mid 60's). I get that people love the intangibles and everything, but how does that make him a head and shoulders better prospect than guys like Jalen Brunson, accomplished college guards who could be really good picks in the 20s or later?

Totally agree...I basically have him and McBride swapped on my big board. Only edge Mitchell has is the championship, and as you point out, Butler was arguably the more important player for that championship win.

 

[MD13]

Totally agree...I basically have him and McBride swapped on my big board. Only edge Mitchell has is the championship, and as you point out, Butler was arguably the more important player for that championship win.

Yeah, the only old guard prospects who have been drafted that highly recently are your offensive juggernauts. Dame, CJ, Jimmer, etc. The guys who could theoretically carry a whole offense as the centerpiece. I just don't see what he's done to deserve teams bucking on years and years of drafting trends to pick him there. If Baylor lost in the elite 8, do we even have this discussion?

 

[Ozone]

Fingers crossed for top 6. I got a good feeling.

lay off the white Russians there dude lol
no I hope they get lucky and not winning the stupid coin flip aint that big a hit anyway the problem is having no clue what gm will be making the pick and if it is Koby is he going to continue the quest for a superstar if they do fall out of the top 6 by simply drafting a project that will be overplayed next season and all but assure them of a shot at the top 4 again? I would say yes smh

 

[Ozone]

Maybe? I don't really understand high school recruiting ranks at all, but I see he was the RSCI #23 recruit. Presumably he would've been up in the top-10 or top-5 if he had the skills to match his athleticism, but I'm not sure he does. Kinda reminds me of Scottie Lewis, who was the RSCI #9 recruit the year before.

Its just crazy how bad some of these kids look in a college system on limited usage and I have seen way too many turn out a lot better than I expected in a couple seasons with nba spacing, of course he wont find that here so I think its pretty safe to assume he is not too high on the board other than being SEC. I actually like his teammate Jaden Springer as the better pro but his production was also limited in college.