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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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Imagine Ben Simmons with Draymond's brain

This kid is 19 yrs old and he's processing both his teammates and his opponents strengths and weaknesses while making decisions in-game. Certain guys have a LeBron/Magic/Draymond reign-man ability to think the game while also having crazy physical gifts to impact it like Barnes, then you have guys with reign-man ability to think the game while watching it from their keyboard like me and Schmitz.

I've watched quite a few of these prospects videos with Schmitz now, I was impressed with Jalen Green's humility, Cade's introspection, Davion's confidence and maturity, Scottie has all of that in spades compared to each. Only Davion's maturity was missing from this session.

 
One thing I find interesting it trying to ballpark rating adjustment relative to pro competition.

Green is really who this matters most for me.

Numbers in ( - ) would estimate the scoring impact improvement you might have seen had Green been playing against college competition.

What is generally wild in an exercise like this is, this is merely a measure of scoring improvement and illustrates why scoring is and should be such an important component in assessing modern NBA prospect value. A 20% improvement on a per 100 basis (5.2 points), vaults someone from a median prospect to a near elite one. Even a 15% improvement is such a drastic shift upward.

Screen-Shot-2021-07-16-at-10-48-03-AM.png


All of these are just such obtainable PTS marker too for a wing....it is very possible he would have seen an even larger scoring improvement than this. I also think it illustrates how solid the rest of his profile generally is, even though he gets downgraded (I think somewhat unfairly) as a more one dimensional player, a large jump in scoring only marginally effects is GS/ADJ number, a marker of impact less scoring.
 
RchfldCavRaised said:
Imagine Ben Simmons with Draymond's brain

This kid is 19 yrs old and he's processing both his teammates and his opponents strengths and weaknesses while making decisions in-game. Certain guys have a LeBron/Magic/Draymond reign-man ability to think the game while also having crazy physical gifts to impact it like Barnes, then you have guys with reign-man ability to think the game while watching it from their keyboard like me and Schmitz.

I've watched quite a few of these prospects videos with Schmitz now, I was impressed with Jalen Green's humility, Cade's introspection, Davion's confidence and maturity, Scottie has all of that in spades compared to each. Only Davion's maturity was missing from this session.

Click to expand...

I've been looking at a lot of data and it is still just so tough to believe Barnes will be a star.

I personally like him a great deal but his scoring markers say his stardom is pretty unlikely.

Only 4 of 29 All-Star players scored at less than 26.5 PTS per 100:

DeAndre Jordan
Bam Adebayo
Russell Westbrook
Andre Drummond

You can expand it out to the VORP list for this scoring measure but again, not many sexy names here:

Monte Morris
Donte DiVencenzo
Immanuel Quickley
Devonte Graham
Jaxson Hayes
Dwight Powell
Mo Bamba
Jerami Grant
OG Anunoby
Kyle Anderson
Aaron Gordon
Dejounte Murray
Xavier Tillman
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jarrett Allen
Tyrese Haliburton
DeAndre Jordan
Nicolas Claxton
Bam Adebayo
Robert Williams
Russell Westbrook
Lonzo Ball
Zach Lavine
Andre Drummond
Willie Cauley-Stein
Chandler Parsons
Terance Mann
Steven Adams
Nerlens Noel
Gorgui Dieng
Montrezl Harrell
Matisse Thybulle

SGA and Halliburton are the two young guys everyone probably likes.

I just point this out as the other side of the coin on Barnes. My personal opinion is his skills, at his size, are just so unique that he may overcome this. But guys that he is mentioned as being similar to are generally average NBA offensive players that scored at FAR higher rates in college. Green, while obviously older, was at 30.1. Simmons was at 30.1 as well. Think about how limited their offensive games are at the next level. If Barnes is potentially worse than either, its tough to wrap your head around what his ceiling actually is. Obviosuly BBIQ helps.......but there is certainly a limit to it.
 
Not drafting Mobley because you have Jarrett Allen is the kind of stuff that gets your whole front office fired a few years later.

I’m so confused why people - including maybe our own GM - see Allen as some massive cornerstone for the franchise that dictates whether or not we should take the best prospect in the draft or not. We acquired Allen for nothing. He doesn’t bring anything irreplaceable to the table. And if he wants $20-25 mil per year I would honestly prefer to let him go because I generally don’t think teams should feel so obligated to pay role players near-max contracts.
 
All4One1ForAll said:
Not drafting Mobley because you have Jarrett Allen is the kind of stuff that gets your whole front office fired a few years later.

I’m so confused why people - including maybe our own GM - see Allen as some massive cornerstone for the franchise that dictates whether or not we should take the best prospect in the draft or not. We acquired Allen for nothing. He doesn’t bring anything irreplaceable to the table. And if he wants $20-25 mil per year I would honestly prefer to let him go because I generally don’t think teams should feel so obligated to pay role players near-max contracts.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of people don’t know Mobley game enough to understand what he brings to the table, him and Allen are too completely different players, now we will see Mobley play the 5, when teams go small…….
 
I'mWithDan said:
I've been looking at a lot of data and it is still just so tough to believe Barnes will be a star.

I personally like him a great deal but his scoring markers say his stardom is pretty unlikely.

Only 4 of 29 All-Star players scored at less than 26.5 PTS per 100:

DeAndre Jordan
Bam Adebayo
Russell Westbrook
Andre Drummond

You can expand it out to the VORP list for this scoring measure but again, not many sexy names here:

Monte Morris
Donte DiVencenzo
Immanuel Quickley
Devonte Graham
Jaxson Hayes
Dwight Powell
Mo Bamba
Jerami Grant
OG Anunoby
Kyle Anderson
Aaron Gordon
Dejounte Murray
Xavier Tillman
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jarrett Allen
Tyrese Haliburton
DeAndre Jordan
Nicolas Claxton
Bam Adebayo
Robert Williams
Russell Westbrook
Lonzo Ball
Zach Lavine
Andre Drummond
Willie Cauley-Stein
Chandler Parsons
Terance Mann
Steven Adams
Nerlens Noel
Gorgui Dieng
Montrezl Harrell
Matisse Thybulle

SGA and Halliburton are the two young guys everyone probably likes.

I just point this out as the other side of the coin on Barnes. My personal opinion is his skills, at his size, are just so unique that he may overcome this. But guys that he is mentioned as being similar to are generally average NBA offensive players that scored at FAR higher rates in college. Green, while obviously older, was at 30.1. Simmons was at 30.1 as well. Think about how limited their offensive games are at the next level. If Barnes is potentially worse than either, its tough to wrap your head around what his ceiling actually is. Obviosuly BBIQ helps.......but there is certainly a limit to it.
Click to expand...

Westbrook is the comparison that pops out here, tbh. Freak athlete with a great motor and sky-high basketball IQ, but questionable scoring touch and a shaky jumpshot.
 
Nathan S said:
Westbrook is the comparison that pops out here, tbh. Freak athlete with a great motor and sky-high basketball IQ, but questionable scoring touch and a shaky jumpshot.
Click to expand...
Does he really have high BBIQ though? I think a big part of high BBIQ is knowing your limitations and knowing risk/reward, and Russ has always been completely blind in that regard.

Still, that comparison would be pretty yikes for Barnes if he ends up a similar player.
 
I'mWithDan said:
I've been looking at a lot of data and it is still just so tough to believe Barnes will be a star.

I personally like him a great deal but his scoring markers say his stardom is pretty unlikely.

Only 4 of 29 All-Star players scored at less than 26.5 PTS per 100:

DeAndre Jordan
Bam Adebayo
Russell Westbrook
Andre Drummond

You can expand it out to the VORP list for this scoring measure but again, not many sexy names here:

Monte Morris
Donte DiVencenzo
Immanuel Quickley
Devonte Graham
Jaxson Hayes
Dwight Powell
Mo Bamba
Jerami Grant
OG Anunoby
Kyle Anderson
Aaron Gordon
Dejounte Murray
Xavier Tillman
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jarrett Allen
Tyrese Haliburton
DeAndre Jordan
Nicolas Claxton
Bam Adebayo
Robert Williams
Russell Westbrook
Lonzo Ball
Zach Lavine
Andre Drummond
Willie Cauley-Stein
Chandler Parsons
Terance Mann
Steven Adams
Nerlens Noel
Gorgui Dieng
Montrezl Harrell
Matisse Thybulle

SGA and Halliburton are the two young guys everyone probably likes.

I just point this out as the other side of the coin on Barnes. My personal opinion is his skills, at his size, are just so unique that he may overcome this. But guys that he is mentioned as being similar to are generally average NBA offensive players that scored at FAR higher rates in college. Green, while obviously older, was at 30.1. Simmons was at 30.1 as well. Think about how limited their offensive games are at the next level. If Barnes is potentially worse than either, its tough to wrap your head around what his ceiling actually is. Obviosuly BBIQ helps.......but there is certainly a limit to it.
Click to expand...
So the bolded here and probably Ball and Westbrook are the only guys who are comparable at all in terms of playmaking. Just interesting there that it's a lot of bigs that don't have passing ability here.

All the guys WITH passing ability on this list are the guys who are actually stars or close to it. Bam, SGA, Simmons, Haliburton, Westbrook. I tend to think Barnes prob falls in as a similar outcome to these guys, which is why I would take him at 4, but not before Green or Mobely.
 
howler1313 said:
Does he really have high BBIQ though? I think a big part of high BBIQ is knowing your limitations and knowing risk/reward, and Russ has always been completely blind in that regard.

Still, that comparison would be pretty yikes for Barnes if he ends up a similar player.
Click to expand...

Yeah agree on the IQ part. What if you had a 6'8" Westbrook that made better decisions?
 
RchfldCavRaised said:
Imagine Ben Simmons with Draymond's brain

This kid is 19 yrs old and he's processing both his teammates and his opponents strengths and weaknesses while making decisions in-game. Certain guys have a LeBron/Magic/Draymond reign-man ability to think the game while also having crazy physical gifts to impact it like Barnes, then you have guys with reign-man ability to think the game while watching it from their keyboard like me and Schmitz.

I've watched quite a few of these prospects videos with Schmitz now, I was impressed with Jalen Green's humility, Cade's introspection, Davion's confidence and maturity, Scottie has all of that in spades compared to each. Only Davion's maturity was missing from this session.

Click to expand...

I love Barnes, was thrilled getting him at 5, but now sitting where we are at, I really, really want Mobley. I think both will be special, just like Mobley more.
 
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