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This is exactly why he would owe money to Cam Johnson and Saadiq Bey. They championed that and paid immediate dividends for their GM's
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This is exactly why he would owe money to Cam Johnson and Saadiq Bey. They championed that and paid immediate dividends for their GM's
Add Mikal Bridges to that list
Derek
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I don't know if this is correct, but my thinking with later firsts is different than most.
I think most would say that a bad team like the Cavs should swing for the fences if they acquired a mid/late 1st while a decent/good team should look for a role player.
I think you should flip that. Bad teams should be looking for guys that can play basketball. Swing for the fences at the top of the draft. If you're decent/good, you don't need that role player, you need to swing for the fences.
That's why Denver was a perfect spot for guys like MPJ or Bol Bol. If they pan out, it raises your ceiling. If they don't, you're still a good team.
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My thinking exactly and the reason I hated Chris Grants willingness to do the opposite
He routinely played it safe in the top 5 and then swung for the fences later
Except the Dion draft. Where he swung and missed on Dion then took the safe Senior Center Tyler Zeller who also sucked.
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That said though @Derek ,
The reason I agree with @NMCav for THIS drafts late lotto/mid firsts is because of the depth and guys with top of lotto potential who are projected to be on the board with Duarte.
Kai Jones, Ziaire Williams, Thor... Those kids if they went back to school and showed better could all be top 10 picks next year despite being projected out of the lotto this year.
So I would go with his thinking up until about those two Knick picks and then switch to yours depending on what it cost to get there and who we got at 3
The reason I agree with @NMCav for THIS drafts late lotto/mid firsts is because of the depth and guys with top of lotto potential who are projected to be on the board with Duarte.
Kai Jones, Ziaire Williams, Thor... Those kids if they went back to school and showed better could all be top 10 picks next year despite being projected out of the lotto this year.
So I would go with his thinking up until about those two Knick picks and then switch to yours depending on what it cost to get there and who we got at 3
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I was posting some love for you just as you posted this.
Damnit I still can't believe he made that Dion pick
That whole night I was shocked. I was super confused when they said Dion Waiters. Then when they gave me hope and traded up and took Tyler Zeller I was wondering what was going on. Nothing against Zeller he was a class act but you knew right away he wasn't a NBA player.
Derek
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Even in that draft, you had the "too old role player" Draymond Green slip to the second round.
Also, important to note that Duarte has had quite the path to the NBA. It's not like he ever really sucked (Zeller couldn't get off the bench for UNC until his junior year). He lived in the Dominican Republic for most of his life. Played two years of HS ball in the states, had a D1 offer, but had to go JUCO, then finally ended up at Oregon.
To me, guys like that scream late bloomer with tremendous work ethic.
Derek
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He also wasn't a class act. He was notoriously bad in the locker room leaking stuff to the media.
Green was 22. Not 24. And Gilbert was told by Tom Izzo to draft Green and ignored him. We took the too old player in Zeller (23) and had it explode in our faces.
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Just because I'm often wrong, I'd just like the record to show that I brought up Duarte way back and got laughed off because he was 24. 
Guy just has a rock solid NBA profile. Two way player, great shooter, tough, good size.
My calculation factors age.......and he is still just powering through it. With his age penalty, he is getting credit for only around 85% of his actual production......still just doesn't matter. It says that he probably still should be a pick in the 14-20 range.
Guy just has a rock solid NBA profile. Two way player, great shooter, tough, good size.
My calculation factors age.......and he is still just powering through it. With his age penalty, he is getting credit for only around 85% of his actual production......still just doesn't matter. It says that he probably still should be a pick in the 14-20 range.
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Some additional context on Duarte. PDIFF is the all encompassing metric I like, that compares players to their peers.
In the possession era, the guys who broke through that age penalty, 23.5 or older, to post 1.0 PDIFF or better:
Brandon Clarke
Cameron Johnson
That is the list.
I point this out as it is very possible Duarte is the guard exception here.
Would I draft just any 24 year old? I mean, no......but the other two guys that stood out on this "old" list have had NBA success.
In the possession era, the guys who broke through that age penalty, 23.5 or older, to post 1.0 PDIFF or better:
Brandon Clarke
Cameron Johnson
That is the list.
I point this out as it is very possible Duarte is the guard exception here.
Would I draft just any 24 year old? I mean, no......but the other two guys that stood out on this "old" list have had NBA success.
Derek
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It seems like you're drawing some arbitrary lines with these guys
22 = not too old
23 = too old
Duarte is not a sure thing, nobody is. He's just a really good college basketball player that I think could step in and help our team inch toward respectability.
Desmond Bane is another guy, who was highly productive as a four-year player at TCU, and fell in the draft because he was "old and lacking upside". Well, the Grizzlies got themselves a 40%+ shooter on the wing with the last pick in the 1st round.
My model actually doesn't like Duarte much at all. The combination of low free throw rate, low offensive rebound rate, and low foul rate suggests that he lacks physicality, which is an issue because he's already a bit undersized compared to typical 3&D prospects at 6'6" 190 with a 6'7" wingspan and middling athleticism.
Still better than Kispert though.
Still better than Kispert though.