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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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Cade is such an interesting case.

He scored 20 points on 13 shots, against a good defense but didn't particularly have a good game.

The turnover thing just lingers with him. Tonight, there were a few more TO's due to indecision.

A lot of his value assessment is wether you think his TO's will correct. George, for example, turned the ball over a lot too but eventually improved. He has a career AST/TO ratio of 1.3 in the NBA, after having a negative one in college.
 
Cade is such an interesting case.

He scored 20 points on 13 shots, against a good defense but didn't particularly have a good game.

The turnover thing just lingers with him. Tonight, there were a few more TO's due to indecision.

A lot of his value assessment is wether you think his TO's will correct. George, for example, turned the ball over a lot too but eventually improved. He has a career AST/TO ratio of 1.3 in the NBA, after having a negative one in college.

How good is George if you take away his elite defense and athleticism, though?
 
How good is George if you take away his elite defense and athleticism, though?

George is not an elite athlete. He declined athletic testing at the combine. No elite athlete declines athletic testing. Is he an elite defender? Sure. But he uses length, lateral movement and good instincts. I think Cade has those things.

Cade has the tools to be a good defender. It shows up in all his metrics IMO. I think Cade is a good but not great athlete......but laterally, there is a lot to like on defense. Again, he's not elite there but at 6'8", he moves well. He plays hard, he does a good job using his length to re-route players.

94.8 DRTG, 3.7 BLK/STL per 100, 3.1 DPM. Those are good numbers across the spectrum of wings. I also think we tend to fall in to this trap with wings specifically, that we think they won't improve. When some of these guys improve a lot.

To me, his value assessment is honestly singularly tied to his turnovers because that is what would keep him from being able to explore / develop becoming a more dynamic playmaker. Is that a result of less than ideal spacing? Fewer transition plays? Being guarded by 6'1" inch guys that try at 100% effort?

My struggle with evaluating him as the season has gone on is the turnover thing has been a constant. It has actually been worse in conference play. One coaching critique I would have, relative to his turnovers specifically is I think he is just sucking up too much dribble action in their offense. Obviously, he has unique skills for a guy his size but he should be moved around far move, especially relative to his size, ability to draw fouls and his 3PT shooter to this point. It is just a lot of standing around, a lot of dribbling and I really don't think it resembles what an NBA team would do or should do with him.

I think at this point, he's probably not going to go #1, just my personal opinion.......but I also think he's a guy who could go 5-6 in the draft and still be the best player. That is kind of the tough thing for me. Green is the most exciting combination of skill / athleticism........I like Mobley a lot, although he has pulled back here. But guys like Suggs, Kuminga.....I don't know, they just don't do it for me. Will Suggs be good? Probably, yes.......will he be a star? He just tends to not look that way statistically.......but even he is in a situation where things like his AST numbers are probably inflated relative to his team......but his scoring volume is severely diminished for that same reason.

I kind of don't envy the GM that picks 1 or 2 in this draft. I think it is a year where there are a lot of good choices but no great one.......and those types of drafts are ones where the best players go in entirely random spots.
 
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The reason people are loving those clips is that, until the last two games, Green has played well, but hasn't been able to make a jumper to save his life.

Yes. Even in G-League, he just has some spectacularly athletic plays around the rim. Lobs, hanging in the air and absorbing contact, showing just a ton of flexibility and fluidity in traffic. But he hasn't shot it well. If that kid has a jumper, he's an electric offensive prospect.
 
The thing that stands out with Green, is he is just performing at an exceptionally high level, relative to his age vs. good competition.

Screen-Shot-2021-02-23-at-9-21-34-AM.png


I think the surprising number for me is Green's impact less scoring (ADJ). Not only is he a really exciting offensive prospect......but he might (gasp) be a two way player. Kuminga is performing admirably less scoring but still lagging Green. And scoring wise, Green just has such better markers and skills to me.

Green is performing on a similar level as LaMelo was, in the Aussie pro league. It is just such a strong indication that Green might be the best guy in this draft.

I thought Green would be good......but having just turned 19, performing above that median PDIFF number in a pro league, it is just so, so good. He's also doing it on more modest usage numbers as well. If he continues on this trajectory, I'd have a tough time not drafting him #1.
 
Hmm, sorry guys. I stand corrected. I updated numbers.

Screen-Shot-2021-02-23-at-9-35-22-AM.png


So I'm probably taking Jalen Green #2. :chuckle:

If Mobley sticks there......his PDIFF score is on par with Ben Simmons'.......so maybe there is an elite prospect in this draft.

EDIT: Haha, good timing @Derek
 
To speak to outcomes, relative to what Mobley is achieving.

Full Season 1.28 or better in PDIFF

Zion Williamson - #1 in VORP from 2020, possible All-Star this year
Anthony Davis - All-NBA
Kevin Durant - MVP
Brandon Clarke - #2 in VORP from 2020
Steph Curry - MVP
DeAndre Ayton - 16/11 career averages as 22 year old
Ben Simmons - ALL-NBA
Karl-Anthony Towns - ALL-NBA
Joel Embiid - ALL-NBA

So yeah, pretty good group to get in to if he can sustain it.

6 of 9 the guys that achieved this were #1 overall picks. Emiid was #3, maybe #1 if healthy. Steph was #7 and Clarke #21.

6 of the 9 guys are all All-NBA players already......with Zion a likely 7th at some point.

1.25 or better is effectively a lock a guy is one of the best players in their draft. 19/20 players to hit or exceed that mark achieved VORP status (RIP Denzel Valentine.....lol).

Mobley has just slowly ascended the entire season here and now finally looks like a consensus #1 pick......at least once all the mock drafters realize it. :chuckle:
 
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George is not an elite athlete. He declined athletic testing at the combine. No elite athlete declines athletic testing. Is he an elite defender? Sure. But he uses length, lateral movement and good instincts. I think Cade has those things.

Cade has the tools to be a good defender. It shows up in all his metrics IMO. I think Cade is a good but not great athlete......but laterally, there is a lot to like on defense. Again, he's not elite there but at 6'8", he moves well. He plays hard, he does a good job using his length to re-route players.

94.8 DRTG, 3.7 BLK/STL per 100, 3.1 DPM. Those are good numbers across the spectrum of wings. I also think we tend to fall in to this trap with wings specifically, that we think they won't improve. When some of these guys improve a lot.

To me, his value assessment is honestly singularly tied to his turnovers because that is what would keep him from being able to explore / develop becoming a more dynamic playmaker. Is that a result of less than ideal spacing? Fewer transition plays? Being guarded by 6'1" inch guys that try at 100% effort?

My struggle with evaluating him as the season has gone on is the turnover thing has been a constant. It has actually been worse in conference play. One coaching critique I would have, relative to his turnovers specifically is I think he is just sucking up too much dribble action in their offense. Obviously, he has unique skills for a guy his size but he should be moved around far move, especially relative to his size, ability to draw fouls and his 3PT shooter to this point. It is just a lot of standing around, a lot of dribbling and I really don't think it resembles what an NBA team would do or should do with him.

I think at this point, he's probably not going to go #1, just my personal opinion.......but I also think he's a guy who could go 5-6 in the draft and still be the best player. That is kind of the tough thing for me. Green is the most exciting combination of skill / athleticism........I like Mobley a lot, although he has pulled back here. But guys like Suggs, Kuminga.....I don't know, they just don't do it for me. Will Suggs be good? Probably, yes.......will he be a star? He just tends to not look that way statistically.......but even he is in a situation where things like his AST numbers are probably inflated relative to his team......but his scoring volume is severely diminished for that same reason.

I kind of don't envy the GM that picks 1 or 2 in this draft. I think it is a year where there are a lot of good choices but no great one.......and those types of drafts are ones where the best players go in entirely random spots.

What is Cade good at, athletically? You say he "moves well" but he doesn't look very quick either straight line or laterally. I can't even remember the last time he dunked in game. The whole premise for him at #1 was that he's so overwhelmingly skilled as a ballhandler and passer that it would make up for his sub-par athleticism...but those skills just don't look nearly as good as advertised.

And the idea that his teammates are holding him back rings more and more hollow. He goes to the bench with 4 fouls, and his team immediately goes on a 13-0 run. And it's not the first time something like that happened.

I agree that he should be used differently; in particular, he's one of the best shooters in the draft, and it's an absolute travesty that he has the lowest 3-point attempt rate out of all of Oklahoma State's main 3-point shooters. Freeing him up on the perimeter should be their #1 priority. Overall, at the NBA level I think he profiles as a floor-spacing wing with plus intangibles and average defense. That would make him a useful player, but not a star. In a weak draft, maybe you draft a player like that in the mid lottery, but not in a draft like this.
 
The best thing going for Cade is his mug. He looks good. Great haircut, wide shoulders. Masculine.

The shoulders are promising. I don't think he has the quickness to handle the transition to SF at the NBA level, but if he fills out to ~230 pounds he can just keep playing PF, and I think he could be successful there.
 
I mean, 6 turnovers...lol...if that's "deliberate methodical" Cade, I'd hate to see what happens to him when the game speeds up in the NBA. And 6 turnovers is basically what he's been averaging lately, as crazy as that sounds.
My man,
Every player in the history of basketball (especially people to handle the ball a lot) have had multiple turnover games! Hell players like LBJ, Kidd, Curry, etc have had several 7-8 turnover games in their careers! TOs are a part of the game!
 
My man,
Every player in the history of basketball (especially people to handle the ball a lot) have had multiple turnover games! Hell players like LBJ, Kidd, Curry, etc have had several 7-8 turnover games in their careers! TOs are a part of the game!
Despite him pointing out the 6 turnovers in a single game, the larger issue is that Cunningham averages more turnovers than assists, which is rarely (if ever) seen from top-tier perimeter players.
 

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