2021 NBA Draft Safari

[I'mWithDan]

My man,
Every player in the history of basketball (especially people to handle the ball a lot) have had multiple turnover games! Hell players like LBJ, Kidd, Curry, etc have had several 7-8 turnover games in their careers! TOs are a part of the game!

For me, having started to watch him more closely, it isn't necessarily the end result.

More concerning has been the way he turns it over.

Like last night, the two that really stood out where the ones where he just made really bad decisions against pressure.

One, he spun paint side, in to a double team......which is basically something they teach you not to do in 3rd grade.

The other, he tried to force his way through 3 players, instead of kicking it cross court to a wide open shooter.

Those are getting concerning. Just that they are lower BBIQ plays, from a guy that needs to be a point forward to have unique skill.

I'm more in the middle on Cade. I'd say positive middle. I think I take him 3rd. Mobley / Green / Cade. Prior to this year I would have taken him 1st. But he's pretty close to being behind Barnes for me here, and being more of a guy you begrudgingly take 5th......which is a pretty big fall for someone who, for 2+ years, was considered the consensus #1 in this draft.

 

[Derek]

Mobley needs to hit the weight room! The NBA has SGs that weigh more than him!

Yep, he certainly would need to hit the weight room as most young bigs do.

Crazy how dominant he's been with his slight frame.

 

[MD13]

Yes. Even in G-League, he just has some spectacularly athletic plays around the rim. Lobs, hanging in the air and absorbing contact, showing just a ton of flexibility and fluidity in traffic. But he hasn't shot it well. If that kid has a jumper, he's an electric offensive prospect.

Once he learns the sneaky NBA vet moves to exaggerate contact and draw fouls, he's going to be impossible to guard going to the rim. He's fast enough to blow by you, seems to have at least a decent handle, he can jump over you or simply hang in the air long enough to outlast you, and I think he's got the build to fill out over time.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Despite him pointing out the 6 turnovers in a single game, the larger issue is that Cunningham averages more turnovers than assists, which is rarely (if ever) seen from top-tier perimeter players.

This isn't entirely true.

Oladipo, George and Tatum all had negative AST/TO ratios in college.

Is it ideal? No......but that is 3 All-Star players on the wing, out of the 10 SG's / SF's who made the ASG.

30% having a negative AST/TO ratio isn't a small number.

You feel far better about Cade if it is positive.......the negative number isn't as concerning at face value, for me, it is just the way he is turning it over right now.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

The shoulders are promising. I don't think he has the quickness to handle the transition to SF at the NBA level, but if he fills out to ~230 pounds he can just keep playing PF, and I think he could be successful there.

Oh man... if he filled out his frame and played a swing 4, he'd be dangerous. He does have the shoulders for it, and unlike Barnes, he has the floor vision to be dangerous when facing up bigger defenders.

Gerald Wallace on offense with a jump shot.

As a 3, he's giving me Chandler Parsons or Mike Miller at the next level vibes. At least with Miller before the injuries, I like him as a 6'8 interchangeable wing beside Tmac. He's just a step too slow and his burst is not bursty enough at this level.

I've seen this before with prep guys when they get to college. Xavier Henry baffled me not having the burst he showed in preps at the college level in Kansas. Then Quentin Grimes a few years ago did the same thing when he got to Lawrence. Top heralded 5 star recruit that just lacked BURST.

The advantage Cade has over those two guys is he's 6'8 and it looks like he can easily fill his frame out and be a dangerous swing 4 with guard skills. Those guys were both like 6'4-6'5 and locked in as 2's

What I'm whispering in his ear if I want him to have more success at the next level:

But at this point in time its clear what helped him on the prep scene, wont be carrying over to college or the pro's, so he's going to have to adjust his approach to the game. Harrison Barnes would have been a better pro-prospect if he had been developed more as a 4 once it was clear his game wasnt as "bursty" as it looked in Iowa, but he had Henson, Zeller and McAdoo impacting his floor time as a big and his "pr falcon team" around him wanted him to be something he never was or could be as a dynamic wing.

Cade can adjust his game and be a solid and dynamic pro. OSU should do with him, what Hamilton did last year with Patrick Williams and what he's doing right now with Scotty Barnes. Be my board crasher and 4 man initiator who can create for others but that's not your primary role in my offense. Put 3 guards out there with Cade and a big man and watch him start taking advantage of bigger slower defenders. (shrugs)

 

[MD13]

Yep, he certainly would need to hit the weight room as most young bigs do.

Crazy how dominant he's been with his slight frame.

I think his improvement over the season has a lot to do with the way he's being used. Early in the season I watched a few games and it seemed like almost all of his touches were coming on straight block post ups. Now I watch highlights and it seems like he's getting the ball more as a roll man and at the top of the key where he can triple threat and blow by his man with either hand.

I think long term, forcing post ups is good for him to make him comfortable with expanding his offensive game (KAT). That said, it always annoys me how college coaches just shoehorn their bigs like that.

 

[Derek]

This isn't entirely true.

Oladipo, George and Tatum all had negative AST/TO ratios in college.

Is it ideal? No......but that is 3 All-Star players on the wing, out of the 10 SG's / SF's who made the ASG.

30% having a negative AST/TO ratio isn't a small number.

You feel far better about Cade if it is positive.......the negative number isn't as concerning at face value, for me, it is just the way he is turning it over right now.

What did I say that was wrong?

I said it was rare, and you provided a few of those rare exceptions. Still, none of those guys were considered playmakers coming out of college like Cunningham is supposed to be.

Also, my point was more in regards to NBA production than college.

 

[MD13]

Oh man... if he filled out his frame and played a swing 4, he'd be dangerous. He does have the shoulders for it, and unlike Barnes, he has the floor vision to be dangerous when facing up bigger defenders.

Gerald Wallace on offense with a jump shot.

As a 3, he's giving me Chandler Parsons or Mike Miller at the next level vibes. At least with Miller before the injuries, I like him as a 6'8 interchangeable wing beside Tmac. He's just a step too slow and his burst is not bursty enough at this level.

I've seen this before with prep guys when they get to college. Xavier Henry baffled me not having the burst he showed in preps at the college level in Kansas. Then Quentin Grimes a few years ago did the same thing when he got to Lawrence. Top heralded 5 star recruit that just lacked BURST.

The advantage Cade has over those two guys is he's 6'8 and it looks like he can easily fill his frame out and be a dangerous swing 4 with guard skills. Those guys were both like 6'4-6'5 and locked in as 2's

What I'm whispering in his ear if I want him to have more success at the next level:

But at this point in time its clear what helped him on the prep scene, wont be carrying over to college or the pro's, so he's going to have to adjust his approach to the game. Harrison Barnes would have been a better pro-prospect if he had been developed more as a 4 once it was clear his game wasnt as "bursty" as it looked in Iowa, but he had Henson, Zeller and McAdoo impacting his floor time as a big and his "pr falcon team" around him wanted him to be something he never was or could be as a dynamic wing.

Cade can adjust his game and be a solid and dynamic pro. OSU should do with him, what Hamilton did last year with Patrick Williams and what he's doing right now with Scotty Barnes. Be my board crasher and 4 man initiator who can create for others but that's not your primary role in my offense. Put 3 guards out there with Cade and a big man and watch him start taking advantage of bigger slower defenders. (shrugs)

Rch, slight disagreement there on Harrison Barnes. I think he's got really good burst and athleticism, problem is he's one of the stiffest top wing prospects I've seen. There's no lateral movement or stop/start in his game, everything is a straight line drive. NBA athletes are too good to be beaten if you only have one way to attack them.

Edit: he also has a very basic handle which doesn't help things.

 

[I'mWithDan]

What did I say that was wrong?

I said it was rare, and you provided a few of those rare exceptions. Still, none of those guys were considered playmakers coming out of college like Cunningham is supposed to be.

Also, my point was more in regards to NBA production than college.

I just wanted to clarify the point slightly, that is all. A negative AST/TO ratio says nothing to me about success rate.

I missed KD in that look but he maybe isn't worth mentioning with any mortals. So it is 4/11 SG/SF prospects, that went on the be All-Stars, had negative AST/TO ratios. Over 1/3rd of All-Star prospects would have been similarly dinged.

For Cade though, the reason I would specifically be concerned is that really only George was a guy who generated a higher volume of assists (5+) but also had a negative AST/TO ratio. So relative to how he is used, it is really tough to decipher how much it swings his outcome, as really only one guy has done it.

I understand what your point was but just wanted to clarify, at face value, the AST/TO ratio is not what I see as the problem. It is that he is a higher volume assist player and also a high volume turnover guy.......and there are just so few cases with that specific profile, which probably makes his outcomes far more volatile.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I think his improvement over the season has a lot to do with the way he's being used. Early in the season I watched a few games and it seemed like almost all of his touches were coming on straight block post ups. Now I watch highlights and it seems like he's getting the ball more as a roll man and at the top of the key where he can triple threat and blow by his man with either hand.

I think long term, forcing post ups is good for him to make him comfortable with expanding his offensive game (KAT). That said, it always annoys me how college coaches just shoehorn their bigs like that.

I agree with this 100%

Listened to an interview with Jason Hart (assistant coach, one of my favorite PG's from Syracuse) where he touched on Mobley for a brief moment in the interview and talked about how he and his Mobley's father are intent on diversifying his all around offensive game as opposed to letting him do what comes easier with back to basket.

Last night, that little streaky guard had it going early (think he scored 20 in the 1st half) so USC fed him, but Mobley has definitely shown more as he's gotten stronger and developed more than I expected coming into the season. His perimeter game with the ball doesnt look awkward at all. It reminds me of Bosh. His timing as a defender is even better and his length looks even better than Bosh.

He's been my runaway #1 since like game 3 or 4. It took a few games for his

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Rch, slight disagreement there on Harrison Barnes. I think he's got really good burst and athleticism, problem is he's one of the stiffest top wing prospects I've seen. There's no lateral movement or stop/start in his game, everything is a straight line drive. NBA athletes are too good to be beaten if you only have one way to attack them.

Edit: he also has a very basic handle which doesn't help things.

Fair enough. Agree to disagree.

I havent watched every game for him, probably 6 in full, so I'll defer to your take on him.

I keep coming back to lack of burst when I watch him. Last night they kept rotating between and box and 1 (to slow down McClung when he was getting whereever he wanted) and a 2-3 but in both, Cade was on the back right block. I felt he wasnt impacting the defense either and wondered if he should be on one of the top wing spots in those zones to make a difference.

Just not impressed with him howler

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Rch, slight disagreement there on Harrison Barnes. I think he's got really good burst and athleticism, problem is he's one of the stiffest top wing prospects I've seen. There's no lateral movement or stop/start in his game, everything is a straight line drive. NBA athletes are too good to be beaten if you only have one way to attack them.

Edit: he also has a very basic handle which doesn't help things.

I totally misread this.

You were saying you think Barnes has good burst.

My bad brotha!

 

[MD13]

Fair enough. Agree to disagree.

I havent watched every game for him, probably 6 in full, so I'll defer to your take on him.

I keep coming back to lack of burst when I watch him. Last night they kept rotating between and box and 1 (to slow down McClung when he was getting whereever he wanted) and a 2-3 but in both, Cade was on the back right block. I felt he wasnt impacting the defense either and wondered if he should be on one of the top wing spots in those zones to make a difference.

Just not impressed with him howler

The stiffness was about Barnes LOL. I've watched even less Cade than you have, so I defer to everyone else here.

The one thing that makes me hesitate is that guys like him (multi skilled big wings with good jumpers) tend to over perform in the NBA. I wasn't super impressed with Tatum as a freshman at Duke, but all of those missed jumpers started turning into 3s and he started nailing more. And driving to the rim seemed to be easier for him in the NBA than duke, but that just might be my perception.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

The stiffness was about Barnes LOL. I've watched even less Cade than you have, so I defer to everyone else here.

The one thing that makes me hesitate is that guys like him (multi skilled big wings with good jumpers) tend to over perform in the NBA. I wasn't super impressed with Tatum as a freshman at Duke, but all of those missed jumpers started turning into 3s and he started nailing more. And driving to the rim seemed to be easier for him in the NBA than duke, but that just might be my perception.

I actually liked Tatum's potential at Duke and felt he picked the wrong school to show his full skillset. I had NO IDEA he was going to work this hard to be what he is now though.

Did you see that stop-pivot-turnaround from like 18ft at the top of the key the other day against NOLA? He's going through some growing pains this year in some of his decision making but if he gets better he can literally be the best player in the league in the next 2 years.

 

[Derek]

The stiffness was about Barnes LOL. I've watched even less Cade than you have, so I defer to everyone else here.

The one thing that makes me hesitate is that guys like him (multi skilled big wings with good jumpers) tend to over perform in the NBA. I wasn't super impressed with Tatum as a freshman at Duke, but all of those missed jumpers started turning into 3s and he started nailing more. And driving to the rim seemed to be easier for him in the NBA than duke, but that just might be my perception.

It wouldn't surprise me if Tatum would have performed (and struggled) similarly to Cade if he were thrust into a lead playmaking role as a college freshman.

Ideally, Cade needs to go somewhere where there is an established lead playmaker, and a coach with a legit system that will allow him to grow as a playmaker while playing primarily off the ball.