2021 NBA Draft Safari

[I'mWithDan]

There aren't many good quantitative ways to measure athleticism...even combine data isn't great except for extreme outliers. Dunks per field goal attempt seems like a reasonable data point to me. I don't expect him to dunk the ball every possession, but at his size, it's strange to go 3 months and 200+ field goal attempts without a dunk.

He hasn't dunked in 200+ FG attempts? I don't feel like rewatching all his film but he has dunked several times in the 5-6 games I have watched.

I'm kind of curious if there is correlation between on ball usage and dunks. I suspect with bigger players, it actually has a negative effect. That is why I'm not sure how indicative it is of athleticism. Again, that is more of just my gut feel watching his tape and seeing how few dunk opportunities he has, relative to how defenses sag and rotate against OSU.

I think my biggest takeaway from 5-6 games of film with Cade, if I were his coach, I would say "Cade, you are being given zero space to drive, relative to defensive help, I want you to shoot more 3's. If you have a good look, it needs to go up."

Cade's 3PT volume should be far higher than it is......relative to his skill as a shooter and the way he is being defended. His coaches could help him, by using him off ball better......but he also needs to just start taking self created 3's even more. I think his split was around 50/50 last time I looked......if he's going to be dominating possession of the ball, that needs to be more like 70/30 on increased volume.

I'm not making the case to take him #1 at this point......but I just think qualitatively, there are a lot of explanations for why people have found him to be a little flat (relative to his hype), that can be remedied with better deployment of him as a player and the expectation that he can improve on his weaknesses.

 

[Derek]

Plus we do have to remember he IS JUST A FRESHMAN. And a lot of his turnovers last game game against Tech’s zone defense! I believe he handled/protected the ball pretty good against man to man defense! And trust me the NBA’s version of zone is nowhere near as tough as a college team’s zone defense.
I would still take Cade at one. Just too many skills to ignore!

Nobody is criticizing him based on a single game. It’s his whole body of work.

Compared to other guys that were heralded as big point guards, Cade is severely lacking.

He’s still a good prospect, but at this point is seems clear that he is not quite as advertised.

 

[Nathan S]

Vertically, I don't think he's a better athlete than Cade. Luka's first step is quicker though.

I also think competition matters but so does spacing......and that video is a great example of it.

It is why I think Cade will be a better creator in the NBA.

Drop Luka in the college game, where 5 guys constantly lay off terrible shooters and I suspect you never see a highlight like that.

I get the spacing argument, but why is it unique to him? His teammates don't seem to have trouble dunking, even when Cade's not in the game. No other elite wing prospect I've scouted has had so much trouble dunking. And I can hardly remember any players going from not dunking in college to dunking in the NBA. And those aren't all terrible shooters around him...I see Walker open in at least a couple of those pics you posted earlier, and he's a fine shooter, Cade just isn't a reliable decision maker in traffic.

He hasn't dunked in 200+ FG attempts? I don't feel like rewatching all his film but he has dunked several times in the 5-6 games I have watched.

I'm kind of curious if there is correlation between on ball usage and dunks. I suspect with bigger players, it actually has a negative effect. That is why I'm not sure how indicative it is of athleticism. Again, that is more of just my gut feel watching his tape and seeing how few dunk opportunities he has, relative to how defenses sag and rotate against OSU.

I think my biggest takeaway from 5-6 games of film with Cade, if I were his coach, I would say "Cade, you are being given zero space to drive, relative to defensive help, I want you to shoot more 3's. If you have a good look, it needs to go up."

Cade's 3PT volume should be far higher than it is......relative to his skill as a shooter and the way he is being defended. His coaches could help him, by using him off ball better......but he also needs to just start taking self created 3's even more. I think his split was around 50/50 last time I looked......if he's going to be dominating possession of the ball, that needs to be more like 70/30 on increased volume.

I'm not making the case to take him #1 at this point......but I just think qualitatively, there are a lot of explanations for why people have found him to be a little flat (relative to his hype), that can be remedied with better deployment of him as a player and the expectation that he can improve on his weaknesses.

Can you find some examples of him dunking in conference play, or at all since the first few games of the season? I genuinely tried but couldn't find any. Happy to eat crow on this if I'm wrong. Agree with everything about him focusing more on 3-point shooting. But I think the easy and obvious explanation for why he's not dunking is that he has very little vertical athleticism.

 

[MD13]

I was trying to think of big ball handler wings without great athleticism who underachieve in the league, and Evan Turner came to mind. Not a perfect comparison as he was older and his major weakness was his inability to shoot, which won't be a problem with Cade.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I was trying to think of big ball handler wings without great athleticism who underachieve in the league, and Evan Turner came to mind. Not a perfect comparison as he was older and his major weakness was his inability to shoot, which won't be a problem with Cade.

YIKES!

Evan Turner with a jump shot is a really good comp that my "non-analytic coaching mind" agrees with

 

[Man Called X]

YIKES!

Evan Turner with a jump shot is a really good comp that my "non-analytic coaching mind" agrees with

But wouldn't Evan Turner with an actual jumper been a hell of a player?

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Here is what I see a lot on film with Cade......where I think the dunk expectation / thought is interesting but maybe not indicative of much.

This was a converted, downhill drive at the rim. How is he dunking here?

Or here.....this ends up being an And1 but is he expected to dunk this against pressure from 3 players and a 4th in the lane?

Or downhill off a screen.....this ends up being an easy finish on a reverse.

Downhill, off a screen, splitting 3 defenders and then finishing over a contest

Again, common theme......tons of congestion. He still converts this play, at the rim, over a contest.

These plays are pretty indicative of what you see in his film. Just bodies all around him.

In the NBA, downhill off a ball screen, you are maybe seeing 1 help side guy or a trailing big. Many times you are just angling to beat the help side player to the rim, with space to run / jump.

If you see more than 1 help side guy, it is just a player racking up easy assists to wide open shooters. ISO play and P&R play is just so much easier in the NBA. Like this is indicative of an NBA play:

That is the one thing that has really stood out diving in to Cade's film more. It is a lot of half court basketball where it is just 5 defensive guys in a really crowded space. It is also additional indictment that they need to use him in ways where this is hard (for 5 defensive guys to just stand and watch).......around screens, initiating more offense where he is receiving an initial pass to to the wing, pin downs, etc.......the fact that he has so many of the screen-capped plays above, where he is finding ways to score against ridiculous congestion should be encouraging. As that should get easier at the NBA level IMO......especially all the wash he deals with at 17-21 feet, as he is trying to navigate on ball screens.

I wish I could give you "old school rep" for this

Really good work and THIS is a language I can understand for this debate

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

But wouldn't Evan Turner with an actual jumper been a hell of a player?

I feel like he would have had an impact on winning but not have been a star player.

He was pretty much a liability until he accepted his limitations as a reserve at the end there.

I'm reading the Trust the Process/Philadelphia 76ers book right now and they just went from wishing Andrew Bynum would get healthy to projecting Evan Turner was the savior of the franchise. It's funny @howler1313 just brought him up in regard to Cade comp as we are talking about pro projections. That pick literally cost Ed Stafanski his job and led to Hinkie

 

[MD13]

I feel like he would have had an impact on winning but not have been a star player.

He was pretty much a liability until he accepted his limitations as a reserve at the end there.

I'm reading the Trust the Process/Philadelphia 76ers book right now and they just went from wishing Andrew Bynum would get healthy to projecting Evan Turner was the savior of the franchise. It's funny @howler1313 just brought him up in regard to Cade comp as we are talking about pro projections. That pick literally cost Ed Stafanski his job and led to Hinkie

You know, I actually really liked Evan Turner that year. But iirc, the guy I was most impressed with was Boogie. Seemed like he would always just trash whichever big man happened to be matched up with him. Never understood why people liked Favors more. Shame that the injuries have basically ended Boogie's career way too early.

Anyways, regarding Turner, he's the worst case I can come up with of a guy who had all the skills but the athleticism severely handicapped his game in the NBA. It only took me a few games of watching him in the league to realize that every shot he was taking was such a high degree of difficulty because he could never create any space for himself.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I was trying to think of big ball handler wings without great athleticism who underachieve in the league, and Evan Turner came to mind. Not a perfect comparison as he was older and his major weakness was his inability to shoot, which won't be a problem with Cade.

Evan Turner was a 3 year college player, who eventually developed in to an NBA prospect. I suspect Cade would be averaging 30 points a game if he were still in college 2 years from now.

I honestly think George looks similar on film. You see some dunking in George's college film.......he caught a few lobs off ball, a few off the dribble but you don't see the spectacularly athletic plays, like from someone like a Josh Jackson type wing. He's not seeking people out to posterize every chance he gets.......but George shows a lot of similar play to Cade. Where he is using his length to shoot over guys, using his length to finish around the rim, to raise up off the dribble.....but he's really not an overly bouncy guy vertically. I think George matured and his athleticism got a little better......but even now, he's more of a glider / long strider. In terms of vertical athleticism, I think they are very similar.

Athleticism can be harder to quantify.......but if Cade is a comparable athlete to George, with his shooting profile, that is still a really valuable prospect profile. The dunking thing seems more subjective to me.....what it means exactly. Cade has a lot of film in high level HS comp, EYBL, etc. He's dunked between his legs in a game, he's done a windmill in a game......I just don't see the athleticism concern. Not to the extent where it dramatically changes how you view him as a player.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Anyways, regarding Turner, he's the worst case I can come up with of a guy who had all the skills but the athleticism severely handicapped his game in the NBA. It only took me a few games of watching him in the league to realize that every shot he was taking was such a high degree of difficulty because he could never create any space for himself.

I'll be honest and say I didn't realize how bad of a shooter Turner was. 29% career 3PT shooter on 900+ career attempts.

In this alternate universe, it would be interesting to see how much better of an offensive player he would have been, had he just been able to shoot. Everything else the same.

 

[MD13]

Evan Turner was a 3 year college player, who eventually developed in to an NBA prospect. I suspect Cade would be averaging 30 points a game if he were still in college 2 years from now.

I honestly think George looks similar on film. You see some dunking in George's college film.......he caught a few lobs off ball, a few off the dribble but you don't see the spectacularly athletic plays, like from someone like a Josh Jackson type wing. He's not seeking people out to posterize every chance he gets.......but George shows a lot of similar play to Cade. Where he is using his length to shoot over guys, using his length to finish around the rim, to raise up off the dribble.....but he's really not an overly bouncy guy vertically. I think George matured and his athleticism got a little better......but even now, he's more of a glider / long strider. In terms of vertical athleticism, I think they are very similar.

Athleticism can be harder to quantify.......but if Cade is a comparable athlete to George, with his shooting profile, that is still a really valuable prospect profile. The dunking thing seems more subjective to me.....what it means exactly. Cade has a lot of film in high level HS comp, EYBL, etc. He's dunked between his legs in a game, he's done a windmill in a game......I just don't see the athleticism concern. Not to the extent where it dramatically changes how you view him as a player.

I'll have to disagree with you there IWD. I think George, particularly before his broken leg, was MUCH more athletic than Cade has ever shown on tape. He's also a bit bigger, right?

Look at this clip for example. Not only does he have the burst to blow by prime and fully engaged LeBron, but that explosiveness to finish over Birdman is something I'm extremely doubtful Cade can do.


This one's just for fun:

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll have to disagree with you there IWD. I think George, particularly before his broken leg, was MUCH more athletic than Cade has ever shown on tape. He's also a bit bigger, right?

Look at this clip for example. Not only does he have the burst to blow by prime and fully engaged LeBron, but that explosiveness to finish over Birdman is something I'm extremely doubtful Cade can do.


This one's just for fun:

I'm speaking to his college film. I would imagine Cade at 24-25 will look different physically, than he does now. '

Athletic project is almost an impossibility but regardless that the audio is horrendous.......it is more a lot of craftiness / smoothness, than it is just pure athletic ability. They needed to sprinkle in some practice dunks for more hype. Even when he does dunk, there just isn't verticality at all to me.


I think George is a bit better athlete but at the same age, it seems somewhat marginally so to me. Will be interesting to see how Cade matures......or if he is plenty athletic but he's been throttled from a lack of spacing.

 

[foucault87]

Somehow I read through this discussion thinking we were comparing Cade to Devean George and was very confused

 

[MirORich]

Ignite pulling out a close win down the stretch.

Kuminga fouled out with a minute to go but had his best all around stat stuffing game

17p
5-11fg
2-3 3P
7 rebounds
5 assists
2 steals
2 blocks

Green had a rough night shooting(4-15) but made a clutch three and another basket in the final two minutes.