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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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FTR you’d like to see for sure......with Green though, the one truly unique marker is that scoring prospects tend to not do a whole lot else. So seeing him posting 4 AST and 3 BLK/STL per 100 is pretty wild.

I think he is the one guy I have been most impressed with this year, maybe save Barnes. Just the package of size, athleticism and refined skill.
He and Mobley are 1a/b for me. Green looks like the type of wing I've always wanted on the Cavs, but again, it's also just 11 games. We'll see how he progresses from here.
 
For Nathan and ImWithDan (since yall have data), and anyone else that wants to play, what is your top 10 for the 2021 Draft and are there any guys you *especially* like for the Cavaliers? Maybe a guy you'd shift the rebuild or current roster for?
 
My top 10 are:
Evan Mobley
Jalen Green
Jonathan Kuminga
Cade Cunningham
Scottie Barnes
Jalen Suggs
Alpernen Sengun
Franz Wagner
Jalen Johnson
Moses Moody

I especially like Mobley, Kuminga, Cunningham, Barnes, Sengun and Wagner for the Cavaliers as is. I'd consider moving on from guys on the roster for Green and *maybe* Suggs.
 
I'd previously knocked Cade for his lack of a "signature" game, and well, suffice to say that's not an issue anymore. With Mobley and Suggs going through rough patches, the top of this draft looks as muddled as ever.


@I'mWithDan for Green, are you adjusting free throw rate to account for the special G-League rules?
 
I'd previously knocked Cade for his lack of a "signature" game, and well, suffice to say that's not an issue anymore. With Mobley and Suggs going through rough patches, the top of this draft looks as muddled as ever.


@I'mWithDan for Green, are you adjusting free throw rate to account for the special G-League rules?
I had forgotten about the different G-League rules.

With that in mind, his FTr should actually be about double what basketball reference has.
 
For Nathan and ImWithDan (since yall have data), and anyone else that wants to play, what is your top 10 for the 2021 Draft and are there any guys you *especially* like for the Cavaliers? Maybe a guy you'd shift the rebuild or current roster for?

Cade has to be in my top-10 after that game, but I think that game also shows why he's not a great fit for the Cavs unless we're willing to take the plunge into a big roster overhaul. He's most impactful when he has the ball in his hands and he's looking to score, and the Cavs already have two core players (Sexton and Garland) who need to have the ball in their hands to make a positive impact. The same could be said for Moody and Green. They're elite scoring prospects, but so good that you restructure the roster to build around them? I'm not sure.

Looking at players who provide more all-around impact, Sengun, Mobley, Barnes, Kuminga, Suggs, Springer, and Wagner are all in the picture for top-10 picks, with Liddell, Champaigne, McBride, Jackson, Butler, and Josiah-Jordan James all interesting options a little further down.

Speaking of Sengun, he had another excellent game today with 28 points, 12 boards, and 3 assists. He was facing off against a pretty tough frontcourt, Rashard Kelly who some may remember as a gritty energy-guy big for Wichita State, and Mouhammadou Jaiteh who was once considered a possible first-round pick before his development plateaued. Here are a couple highlights that show some of his skills: in one case, blocking the 3 and running the court for the fast-break layup, and in the other case sneaking underneath for the rebound and using a pass fake to create space for the finish.


It's also noteworthy that he made another 3 in this game...he's 4/9 from deep in his last 6 games after going 2/16 in his first 23 games. Given his youth, form, and solid free throw percentage, I think there's room for continued growth there.
 
@I'mWithDan for Green, are you adjusting free throw rate to account for the special G-League rules?

I am not. I’d have to take a look at how it might change his per 100 scoring. It is possible he’s even underrated from his already strong profile.
 
I am not. I’d have to take a look at how it might change his per 100 scoring. It is possible he’s even underrated from his already strong profile.

Main thing that hurts him in my draft rater is his very poor offensive rebound rate of just 0.8 per 100 possessions. It's a testament to his skill that he's a very effective scorer despite his lack of functional strength, but it's definitely an issue for him. Compare, e.g. to Kobe who as an 18-year-old rookie averaged 2.2 offensive rebounder per 100 possessions...that's a massive difference.
 
Oh yeah, and if you're looking for something to watch this evening, consider tuning in to Utah State-Nevada at 7. Neemias Queta is trying to drag Utah State into the tournament, following up a pair of 30-point double-doubles against Boise State a week ago with a 16-point 17-rebound game in a critical 3-point win over Nevada on Friday. Could contribute for us right away and long-term as a backup behind Allen.
 
@I'mWithDan for Green, are you adjusting free throw rate to account for the special G-League rules?

I looked in to it.....I'm not entirely sure if his FTR would double.......so I just did 1.75.

If his FTR would increase 1.5-1.75 times and you assume he can shoot the same percentage, it does bump him up a tier.

It would also put his per 100 scoring at a hair below 30 points, which is pretty damn impressive given the competition level vs. college.

Screen-Shot-2021-03-01-at-11-25-40-AM.png


So bumps him up a tier in both overall profile and in scoring efficiency. Pretty crazy numbers relative to it being pro competition.

Really interested to see how he fills out his frame here.
 
I looked in to it.....I'm not entirely sure if his FTR would double.......so I just did 1.75.

If his FTR would increase 1.5-1.75 times and you assume he can shoot the same percentage, it does bump him up a tier.

It would also put his per 100 scoring at a hair below 30 points, which is pretty damn impressive given the competition level vs. college.

Screen-Shot-2021-03-01-at-11-25-40-AM.png


So bumps him up a tier in both overall profile and in scoring efficiency. Pretty crazy numbers relative to it being pro competition.

Really interested to see how he fills out his frame here.

I think the scoring numbers are correct; it's just the free throws that're messed up...for my model, I'm calculating "real" free throws by FT = PTS - 2*2P - 3*3P for G-League prospects. He still doesn't have a great free throw rate, but it's not horrendously bad either.
 
By my amateur calculations, Green's FTr should be about .308

Using @Nathan S's formula, he has the equivalent of 34 FTM this year at a 77.8% clip, which would be about 44 FTA.
 
By my amateur calculations, Green's FTr should be about .308

Using @Nathan S's formula, he has the equivalent of 34 FTM this year at a 77.8% clip, which would be about 44 FTA.

Free throw attempts is a less important variable, but yeah, that's exactly how I'm calculating it: "real" free throws made divided by free throw percentage.
 
Free throw attempts is a less important variable, but yeah, that's exactly how I'm calculating it: "real" free throws made divided by free throw percentage.
I wasn't sure if FTr factored into your formula at all. I know it's obviously an important number in the NBA, but IIRC its predictive value coming from the NCAA (or other levels) is a bit murky.
 

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