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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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I think the scoring numbers are correct; it's just the free throws that're messed up...for my model, I'm calculating "real" free throws by FT = PTS - 2*2P - 3*3P for G-League prospects. He still doesn't have a great free throw rate, but it's not horrendously bad either.

Yeah...kind of in that 6-7 per 100 range, which is perfectly fine.

Median for guards is 8 in the possession database I have......but those are also numbers against college competition.

If one of his smaller weaknesses is FTR and he's in the ballpark of the college median, that is pretty good.
 
I wasn't sure if FTr factored into your formula at all. I know it's obviously an important number in the NBA, but IIRC its predictive value coming from the NCAA (or other levels) is a bit murky.

I found a very slight positive effect for higher FTr (holding made FT constant of course). Doesn't matter too much for most prospects, but apparently better to get to the line and miss your free throws than to not get to the line at all, at least if we're projecting future NBA success.

Yeah...kind of in that 6-7 per 100 range, which is perfectly fine.

Median for guards is 8 in the possession database I have......but those are also numbers against college competition.

If one of his smaller weaknesses is FTR and he's in the ballpark of the college median, that is pretty good.

Issue is that, combined with his very poor offensive rebound rate, points to him being weak around the rim. That's a tricky one for me...the classic high-2PT-rate but low-FT, low-ORB guard is, like, a B athlete who makes a lot of midrange shots but rarely/never finishes strong. In some ways Green is totally different from that; he's clearly an elite vertical athlete who can get all the way to the rim and finish strong. But he also doesn't have a great frame to absorb contact, especially going up against grown men.
 
Issue is that, combined with his very poor offensive rebound rate, points to him being weak around the rim. That's a tricky one for me...the classic high-2PT-rate but low-FT, low-ORB guard is, like, a B athlete who makes a lot of midrange shots but rarely/never finishes strong. In some ways Green is totally different from that; he's clearly an elite vertical athlete who can get all the way to the rim and finish strong. But he also doesn't have a great frame to absorb contact, especially going up against grown men.

More explosive version of Caris LeVert?

LaVert had a pretty pedestrian OREB rate against college competition.

Similar lanky frames too.
 
More explosive version of Caris LeVert?

LaVert had a pretty pedestrian OREB rate against college competition.

Similar lanky frames too.

Could be...LeVert's never been a very efficient scorer, but makes up for it by being an exceptional passer for a wing. Green in contrast really needs to excel as a scorer to reach the ceiling people are envisioning.

I think it's possible because the difference in level of competition from NCAA to G-League is pretty substantial, but I'm not yet convinced that he's a lock to be an elite NBA scorer.
 
Could be...LeVert's never been a very efficient scorer, but makes up for it by being an exceptional passer for a wing. Green in contrast really needs to excel as a scorer to reach the ceiling people are envisioning.

I think it's possible because the difference in level of competition from NCAA to G-League is pretty substantial, but I'm not yet convinced that he's a lock to be an elite NBA scorer.
Out of curiosity... if KPJ were a current draft prospect (using just his G-League stats), how would he rate?

Not sure if this will be a useful exercise at all, but it's at least interesting considering we at least have an idea of what he can do on the NBA court. Might help with other G-League prospect projections.
 
Out of curiosity... if KPJ were a current draft prospect (using just his G-League stats), how would he rate?

Not sure if this will be a useful exercise at all, but it's at least interesting considering we at least have an idea of what he can do on the NBA court. Might help with other G-League prospect projections.

Cool idea! He comes in at +0.7 offense, -2.8 defense. That's a little worse overall than Green (-0.2 offense, -1.8 defense), and significantly worse than Kuminga (-0.7 offense, -0.1 defense).

If KPJ were the same age as Green, his rating would be +1.8 offense, -1.7 defense.
 
Lots of young players who're the best or co-best players on top teams this year:

18-year-olds: Moody (#12 Arkansas)
19-year-olds: Suggs (#1 Gonzaga), Wagner (#2 Michigan), Barnes (#11 FSU), Cunningham (#17 OK State)
20-year-olds: Ayayi (#1 Gonzaga), Dickinson (#2 Michigan), Butler (#3 Baylor), McBride (#6 WV), Liddell (#7 OSU), Robinson-Earl (#10 'Nova), Shannon (#18 TT)

Did I miss anyone?
 
I've mentioned Kadary Richmond a couple times...exceptionally gutsy performance from him this evening with 6 points, 9 assists, and 4 steals playing on one leg in a must-win game for Syracuse. Would be a great pick as a project guard in the late first/early second if he declares.
 
I've mentioned Kadary Richmond a couple times...exceptionally gutsy performance from him this evening with 6 points, 9 assists, and 4 steals playing on one leg in a must-win game for Syracuse. Would be a great pick as a project guard in the late first/early second if he declares.

For Kadary
As a general rule, I advise against Syracuse perimeter players. He's an exception and kinda baffled me that he chose Cuse and Boeheim. Definitely not a program known for allowing slashing guards to play to their strengths or to learn how to initiate offense. He would have done himself so much better if he had gone to a program with a NBA veteran PG on staff. Ironically, he could have played for former Cuse PG Jason Hart out at USC, let them put the ball in his hands and play with the Mobleys finishing and been a lottery prospect.

That game was jekyll and hyde for the youngster. In the first half he fed us as soon as he came in giving us like 2-3 buckets in transition off bad passing and decision making. But like you said, when it was winning time, he made plays and created opportunities for the shooters.

For UNC
Caleb Love needs another year in Chapel Hill. Come back to school next year and assert himself with a much better Kessler as a hub down there, an even better and experienced Bacot and let's see what he's got for the pros then.

It's going to be a really good ACC tourney with 5 or 6 blue bloods on the bubble
 
For Kadary
As a general rule, I advise against Syracuse perimeter players. He's an exception and kinda baffled me that he chose Cuse and Boeheim. Definitely not a program known for allowing slashing guards to play to their strengths or to learn how to initiate offense. He would have done himself so much better if he had gone to a program with a NBA veteran PG on staff. Ironically, he could have played for former Cuse PG Jason Hart out at USC, let them put the ball in his hands and play with the Mobleys finishing and been a lottery prospect.

That game was jekyll and hyde for the youngster. In the first half he fed us as soon as he came in giving us like 2-3 buckets in transition off bad passing and decision making. But like you said, when it was winning time, he made plays and created opportunities for the shooters.

For UNC
Caleb Love needs another year in Chapel Hill. Come back to school next year and assert himself with a much better Kessler as a hub down there, an even better and experienced Bacot and let's see what he's got for the pros then.

It's going to be a really good ACC tourney with 5 or 6 blue bloods on the bubble

What's funny is, he was moving like a 45-year-old man out there, and in some ways...it actually helped him? When he slowed down just a little, he started to really see the court and just made play after play. I assume he'll go back to school for at least one more year, and if he's back to 100% athletically and showing that level of basketball IQ, he'll be a real problem.

For UNC, I'm hoping all their freshmen return. There's so much young talent on that team...they just need some time to gel and they'll be really fun to watch next year.
 
Quite a duel so far this evening. Butler leading the way for Baylor with an efficient 18 points, McBride with 11 points, 7 dimes, and 0 turnovers for WVU.

EDIT: And we go to OT. Butler up to 22 points and 6 dimes. McBride 17 points, 7 dimes, 2 steals and 2 blocks. Could be the game of the season so far.

Wow, spoiled by a huge blown call in the final seconds. Sad...NCAA needs the challenge rule.
 
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Illinois is beating the piss out of TTUN

Really taking them behind Schembechler Hall and beating them like the scUM they are :chuckle:
 
Illinois is beating the piss out of TTUN

Really taking them behind Schembechler Hall and beating them like the scUM they are :chuckle:

As a WVU fan, I'll always appreciate them for stealing Beilein so that we could get an even better coach :chuckle:
 
Cade has to be in my top-10 after that game, but I think that game also shows why he's not a great fit for the Cavs unless we're willing to take the plunge into a big roster overhaul. He's most impactful when he has the ball in his hands and he's looking to score, and the Cavs already have two core players (Sexton and Garland) who need to have the ball in their hands to make a positive impact. The same could be said for Moody and Green. They're elite scoring prospects, but so good that you restructure the roster to build around them? I'm not sure.

Looking at players who provide more all-around impact, Sengun, Mobley, Barnes, Kuminga, Suggs, Springer, and Wagner are all in the picture for top-10 picks, with Liddell, Champaigne, McBride, Jackson, Butler, and Josiah-Jordan James all interesting options a little further down.

Speaking of Sengun, he had another excellent game today with 28 points, 12 boards, and 3 assists. He was facing off against a pretty tough frontcourt, Rashard Kelly who some may remember as a gritty energy-guy big for Wichita State, and Mouhammadou Jaiteh who was once considered a possible first-round pick before his development plateaued. Here are a couple highlights that show some of his skills: in one case, blocking the 3 and running the court for the fast-break layup, and in the other case sneaking underneath for the rebound and using a pass fake to create space for the finish.


It's also noteworthy that he made another 3 in this game...he's 4/9 from deep in his last 6 games after going 2/16 in his first 23 games. Given his youth, form, and solid free throw percentage, I think there's room for continued growth there.
That’s the problem.....our most ball dominate players are barely 6’2! We need a player with size that get to the rim, look over the top of defenses, handle the ball and be able shoot over and in the faces of defenders! Not to mention rebound and occasionally post up! There’s no way I take Mobley first (if we had the first pick). I’ve watched Kumnga and Green and although they are great scorers they don’t others around them better! Cade does! He’s the total package!
 
Illinois is beating the piss out of TTUN

Really taking them behind Schembechler Hall and beating them like the scUM they are :chuckle:

It is is shaping up like the inverse of OSU and Michigan in football.

Where Ohio State has to take pleasure in other teams beating them.

Will be fascinating to watch Howard these next few years.

The amount of NBA talent they are about to have will be fun.

Two possible guys in the lottery pool for 2020 and two others who were top 50 players.
 

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