2021 Season | Series #43 | Twins @ Indians | Sep. 6-9

[KluberSociety]

I don't know what everyone's obsession is with having "power bats" in the "corner outfield".

When you put a good fielder in LF or RF they are a lot better relative to the average LF/RF than they would be relative to the average CF, so they provide a lot of value that way. That was a lot of Mookie Betts's value in Boston. He could have played a decent CF, but he also could've played a great RF and they already had a great CF in JBJ so they put him in RF and the two were a baseball vacuum.

Zimmer has a great UZR in RF but probably would be struggling to put up a zero UZR in CF. When you move someone from a tougher position to an "easier" position they can excel. Another reason why it's not bad to have a bunch of people to play SS, because you can move them to 2B or 3B usually pretty easily and they can excel there.

I don't really know what Franmil could do in the OF if he loses weight as suggested, but I'd be also worried about his injury risk because he'll still be a big guy and we can't lose his bat. Seems like a lot of risk for very little gain.

Harold does get a worse rap than he deserves in OF, primarily because he looks so ugly doing it, particularly with his misplays off the wall and weak throws. They make a memorable visual impact but he does make up for some of it by generally moving around well. I've seen people suggest that Harold should never play OF again and then those same people suggest that Naylor is capable of playing OF when Naylor not only fails the eye test but he is far beyond Harold bad when it comes to the defensive metrics. He just doesn't get to baseballs.

If I were GM, I'd make sure that Franmil and Naylor never touched the OF again except in NL parks. There really just is no reason for it. Especially when we have athletic players like Amed who can assuredly play a strong corner outfield in the case that he gets bumped from SS which I would hope happens some time next year. Sure we could also trade them for a "real" OF but I like the flexibility now.

 

[KluberSociety]

Franmil's UZR by position and year:

2020 LF: -0.5

2018 RF: -4.4
2019 RF: -3.0
2021 RF: -0.1

Total career UZR: -7.9

Harold's UZR by position and year:

2019 LF: -1.6
2021 LF: -1.3

2019 CF: +1.4
2021 CF: -1.3

2019 RF: -2.7
2021 RF: -0.5

Total career UZR: -6.7

You were saying?

I'd prefer to look at UZR/150 which gives Franmil -8.6, Naylor -13.9, and Harold -6.2. It only makes the contrast bigger on a per game basis.

Yes, Naylor has been over twice as bad relative to the average outfielder as Harold according to UZR. Let that sink in.

 

[33Y0]

I'd prefer to look at UZR/150 which gives Franmil -8.6, Naylor -13.9, and Harold -6.2. It only makes the contrast bigger on a per game basis.

Yes, Naylor has been over twice as bad relative to the average outfielder as Harold according to UZR. Let that sink in.

Just my two cents: move Naylor to first maybe and keep Franmil at DH.

 

[xmasbuck]

Just my two cents: move Naylor to first maybe and keep Franmil at DH.

you can never have too many first basemen who can't hit left handed pitching

 

[CDAV45]

I don't know what everyone's obsession is with having "power bats" in the "corner outfield".

When you put a good fielder in LF or RF they are a lot better relative to the average LF/RF than they would be relative to the average CF, so they provide a lot of value that way. That was a lot of Mookie Betts's value in Boston. He could have played a decent CF, but he also could've played a great RF and they already had a great CF in JBJ so they put him in RF and the two were a baseball vacuum.

Zimmer has a great UZR in RF but probably would be struggling to put up a zero UZR in CF. When you move someone from a tougher position to an "easier" position they can excel. Another reason why it's not bad to have a bunch of people to play SS, because you can move them to 2B or 3B usually pretty easily and they can excel there.

I don't really know what Franmil could do in the OF if he loses weight as suggested, but I'd be also worried about his injury risk because he'll still be a big guy and we can't lose his bat. Seems like a lot of risk for very little gain.

Harold does get a worse rap than he deserves in OF, primarily because he looks so ugly doing it, particularly with his misplays off the wall and weak throws. They make a memorable visual impact but he does make up for some of it by generally moving around well. I've seen people suggest that Harold should never play OF again and then those same people suggest that Naylor is capable of playing OF when Naylor not only fails the eye test but he is far beyond Harold bad when it comes to the defensive metrics. He just doesn't get to baseballs.

If I were GM, I'd make sure that Franmil and Naylor never touched the OF again except in NL parks. There really just is no reason for it. Especially when we have athletic players like Amed who can assuredly play a strong corner outfield in the case that he gets bumped from SS which I would hope happens some time next year. Sure we could also trade them for a "real" OF but I like the flexibility now.

Did you really just use Mookie Betts as an example of a no power/good fielder example? I think you should probably find a better example if you can.

Zimmer would make an ideal 4th OF and provide value with his speed and defense. The hope would be his bat continues to get better.

I wish them nothing but the best, but Harold and Naylor can go away. I'd much rather have Bradley at 1B than Naylor, and I'm not sure I want Bradley at 1B. The jury is still out for him IMO.

I don't know what everyone's obsession is with not having "power bats" in the "corner outfield". We need a more potent offense and the guys that typically have those type of bats are often corner players. You can say "just put an above average fielder in the corners and they'll provide value that way" if you want. That's perfectly viable, but you have that now and how's that working out for ya?

 

[KluberSociety]

Did you really just use Mookie Betts as an example of a no power/good fielder example? I think you should probably find a better example if you can.

Zimmer would make an ideal 4th OF and provide value with his speed and defense. The hope would be his bat continues to get better.

I wish them nothing but the best, but Harold and Naylor can go away. I'd much rather have Bradley at 1B than Naylor, and I'm not sure I want Bradley at 1B. The jury is still out for him IMO.

I don't know what everyone's obsession is with not having "power bats" in the "corner outfield". We need a more potent offense and the guys that typically have those type of bats are often corner players. You can say "just put an above average fielder in the corners and they'll provide value that way" if you want. That's perfectly viable, but you have that now and how's that working out for ya?

Hitting is irrelevant with the Mookie example. He turned from an a mediocre 2B to an average CF to a great RF. If someone was to hit like Amed and play prime Mookie defense in RF, they'd be the 2nd most valuable position player on the team now. Now I don't expect that level of defense but take some away and you're still left with a valuable player.

Naylor is still young, and has hitting potential. He doesn't strike out much and has power. He just hasn't really put the two together, and maybe never will, but it's way too early to give up on him.

CJ Cron is not going to make this offense good, nor change it in a particularly meaningful way. You make 11% of something marginally better and it doesn't become good.

There's no easy fixes to the offense. Multiple players have to come through in multiple positions to get better or make it through the farm system, even if we sign 2 offense-first free agents. I do hope we sign someone who can help us out and I think we will, but the majority of the help has to come from within.

 

[sportscoach]

Did you really just use Mookie Betts as an example of a no power/good fielder example? I think you should probably find a better example if you can.

Zimmer would make an ideal 4th OF and provide value with his speed and defense. The hope would be his bat continues to get better.

I wish them nothing but the best, but Harold and Naylor can go away. I'd much rather have Bradley at 1B than Naylor, and I'm not sure I want Bradley at 1B. The jury is still out for him IMO.

I don't know what everyone's obsession is with not having "power bats" in the "corner outfield". We need a more potent offense and the guys that typically have those type of bats are often corner players. You can say "just put an above average fielder in the corners and they'll provide value that way" if you want. That's perfectly viable, but you have that now and how's that working out for ya?

We haven't had contact bats or legit power bats the last couple seasons it felt like... Guys just haven't panned out like we hoped

 

[CDAV45]

Hitting is irrelevant with the Mookie example. He turned from an a mediocre 2B to an average CF to a great RF. If someone was to hit like Amed and play prime Mookie defense in RF, they'd be the 2nd most valuable position player on the team now. Now I don't expect that level of defense but take some away and you're still left with a valuable player.

Naylor is still young, and has hitting potential. He doesn't strike out much and has power. He just hasn't really put the two together, and maybe never will, but it's way too early to give up on him.

CJ Cron is not going to make this offense good, nor change it in a particularly meaningful way. You make 11% of something marginally better and it doesn't become good.

There's no easy fixes to the offense. Multiple players have to come through in multiple positions to get better or make it through the farm system, even if we sign 2 offense-first free agents. I do hope we sign someone who can help us out and I think we will, but the majority of the help has to come from within.

Cron is a very productive hitter and that isn't a recent development. The problem with Cron is that we already have a DH, but he'd be a good companion with Bradley at 1B. This is also where Reyes being able to play some OF(not full time) could help get Cron's bat in the lineup.

While the theoretical addition of Cron wouldn't take this meager offense to the best in the league, a bat like his would certainly go a long way in improving it.

So again, let's look at where the focus on improving this lineup should be placed:
1) We have received little to no production from our C.
2) Our corner OF has been less than stellar.
3) Bradley's ability to hit MLB pitching is still on trial.

For S&G's let's pretend that Yan Gomes was our C this season and Cron was our DH which means Reyes plays LF except when Cron is at 1B. How much would the offense be improved by simply adding those 2 bats to the lineup? I think it would be significant and several of the late inning 1 run losses might not have been so. Give me that and a healthy pitching staff and this team is in control of a WC spot at the least. Possibly battling for the division, or at least making it a helluva lot more interesting than it is currently.

KS, I do agree that the answers to these offensive questions could come from within. I've said it before and my sentiment has not changed. I don't care how they improve this lineup, but it needs improved.

 

[CDAV45]

We haven't had contact bats or legit power bats the last couple seasons it felt like... Guys just haven't panned out like we hoped

No Coach, they haven't and improving the contact rate and/or the power would certainly help matters. Ideally both would be improved.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I wish them nothing but the best, but Harold and Naylor can go away. I'd much rather have Bradley at 1B than Naylor, and I'm not sure I want Bradley at 1B. The jury is still out for him IMO.

I agree with this. Harold is a .260-.270 singles hitter who is poor defensively. Not what anybody wants in a corner outfielder. I don't think he has the extra base pop you want in a DH and besides, that job is taken.

Naylor is also bad defensively and, like Harold, does not have the ability to consistently elevate the ball and take advantage of his strength. He's another line drive and ground ball hitter who makes tons of outs hitting sharp ground balls into the shift. A .700 OPS guy who is bad defensively is not want you want in a corner outfield position. Defensively he should be at first base but he's blocked by Bradley, who also hits left-handed.

However, Naylor is only 24 and reportedly the front office loves him. If he has an option they could start him in Columbus next season with the excuse that he needs more time to recover from his injury. The only way I can see these guys playing for the Guardians is in a left-field platoon. They both have an .800 OPS against opposite arm pitching. That's not an ideal option - I'd rather have one good defender with an .800 OPS playing every day, but that might not be in the cards in 2022, although I'm hoping that either Kwan or Oscar Gonzalez hits himself onto the team in spring training.

 

[sportscoach]

I currently have Kwan over Gonzalez mostly because Kwan can play a legit OF...

 

[CDAV45]

I agree with this. Harold is a .260-.270 singles hitter who is poor defensively. Not what anybody wants in a corner outfielder. I don't think he has the extra base pop you want in a DH and besides, that job is taken.

Naylor is also bad defensively and, like Harold, does not have the ability to consistently elevate the ball and take advantage of his strength. He's another line drive and ground ball hitter who makes tons of outs hitting sharp ground balls into the shift. A .700 OPS guy who is bad defensively is not want you want in a corner outfield position. Defensively he should be at first base but he's blocked by Bradley, who also hits left-handed.

However, Naylor is only 24 and reportedly the front office loves him. If he has an option they could start him in Columbus next season with the excuse that he needs more time to recover from his injury. The only way I can see these guys playing for the Guardians is in a left-field platoon. They both have an .800 OPS against opposite arm pitching. That's not an ideal option - I'd rather have one good defender with an .800 OPS playing every day, but that might not be in the cards in 2022, although I'm hoping that either Kwan or Oscar Gonzalez hits himself onto the team in spring training.

Do you know Naylor's option status? I don't ever want to come across as if I don't like the kid. I love his attitude and "balls to the wall" play, but I don't see the offensive upside that many do. I can't emphasize enough how badly I hope that I'm wrong. If he could spend some time in Columbus next season while things get sorted out then that would be a good thing IMO.

I can't help but wonder what kind of hitter Harold would be if he didn't swing at everything. He has no discipline, but his bat to ball ability is evident by his batting average. Defensively he is a turd that brings no value whatsoever with the glove, and if he has much power he rarely taps into it. He's not the answer to improving this lineup IMO and is only an indication of how terrible our OF has been. While I'm certainly a supporter of this FO, they should probably catch more shit for fielding such a terrible OF for multiple years now.

 

[MadThinker88]

Josh Naylor still has all 3 options remaining to him.

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[Wham with the Right Hand]

I can't help but wonder what kind of hitter Harold would be if he didn't swing at everything. He has no discipline, but his bat to ball ability is evident by his batting average. Defensively he is a turd that brings no value whatsoever with the glove, and if he has much power he rarely taps into it. He's not the answer to improving this lineup IMO and is only an indication of how terrible our OF has been. While I'm certainly a supporter of this FO, they should probably catch more shit for fielding such a terrible OF for multiple years now.

Harold is poor defensively, does not hit for power, has no plate discipline, never walks, and is hitting .266 with an OBP of only .302. His OPS is .707 - not what you need from a corner outfielder, especially one who is a defensive liability. I can see why he was available.

But Harold does have some serious strengths. With runners on he's hitting .325, with RISP he's hitting a crazy .375, and with RISP and two out it's .323. He's definitely the guy you want at the dish with ducks on the pond. But leading off an inning he's hitting .152 and with nobody on it's .227. Maybe he just focuses better in the more important at-bats.

Harold has one problem - he can't hit with two strikes. When he puts the ball in play (or strikes out) when the count is 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2 he's hitting .187. On 3-2 counts, however, he's hitting .400. When the pitcher has two strikes on him and does not have to throw a strike on the next pitch Harold will chase and get himself out. He's very antsy with two strikes.

In all other counts besides the two-strike counts listed above, Harold is hitting .353. He's a monster when he gets ahead in the count and the pitcher has to put the ball in the zone. If Harold could ever develop the ability to be more relaxed with two strikes and treat it as any other pitch with no fear of being called out he could probably raise his average at least 40 points. There's a huge difference between .353 and .187. If he would just pretend the count is 0-0 and trust his batting eye, plus understanding that he is most likely to get a breaking ball off the outside corner, he could be a heck of a spray hitter that consistently lines singles and doubles all over the park and probably hits .300, not to mention getting to more 3-2 counts and drawing more walks. On 3-2 counts Harold has gotten a hit or a walk 14 times in 23 AB's.

I haven't checked but I suspect Amed Rosario has the same profile. Most hitters do. They let the count get into their heads. Their thinking is probably, "I have two strikes, I need to swing at anything close because I can't count on the umpire not to call me out on a close pitch." The result is they make more outs by expanding their zones than if they just ignored the count and swung at only the good pitches to hit.

I'm wondering if switching to the electronic pitch tracker to call balls and strikes would raise batting averages since hitters would not fear being called out on a pitch 3" off the plate, which we see several times every game.

 

[CDAV45]

I currently have Kwan over Gonzalez mostly because Kwan can play a legit OF...

Yeah, it's unfortunate that Gonzalez isn't even an average defensive OFer, because there is some serious thunder in his bat. If he were then the decision would be easy.

I view Kwan more as a CFer, but if he continues to perform well then by all means put him in a corner. I don't think that he can post a 351/424/558/982 line over the course of a full season, but he doesn't really need to. Just continue to perform well.

Fuck it! Call them both up and see what happens. What is there really to lose at this point?

I have to say that Call might deserve a look as well. He's 26 and won't be a factor after this season IMO. He's a very good defensive OFer and is slashing 267/360/451/811 with good power.