2021 Series #26 | Indians @ Rays | July 5-7, 2021

[CATS44]

Tigers are worse and they're the team that started this slide.

Actually, Detroit has been a better team this year, and much better over the last month.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

True, there are no right answers for Tito, especially playing Houston and Tampa. It's like he's playing chess but all his pieces are pawns.

 

[CATS44]

It looks like after the break, Plesac and Peacock will join the rotation.

I wouldn't be surprised if TMac is called up several weeks from now. While the rest of the kids have been getting their brains beat in up here (acting partly as sacrificial lambs, while he is being protected in Columbus, away from the spotlight), he is being quietly worked on.

Unless the team goes on a tear right now (highly doubtful), I dont see a major move, unless it addresses 2022 and 2023.

I also don't see us getting much, if any, return for our one year vets, because there isn't a market. Eddie is hurt and what contender outside the division has a big need for a 2B? Given the volume of kids we have that will be R5 eligible, any return would have to be far down the road.

But when it comes to trades, the FO is creative, if anything at all, so you can never discount a major trade. And it usually comes out of the clear blue sky.

 

[macbdog]

Every fucking game I watch there's always 6 runs on the board before I can sit down

You either need to sit down sooner or not sit down at all.

 

[CDAV45]

It looks like after the break, Plesac and Peacock will join the rotation.

I wouldn't be surprised if TMac is called up several weeks from now. While the rest of the kids have been getting their brains beat in up here (acting partly as sacrificial lambs, while he is being protected in Columbus, away from the spotlight), he is being quietly worked on.

Unless the team goes on a tear right now (highly doubtful), I dont see a major move, unless it addresses 2022 and 2023.

I also don't see us getting much, if any, return for our one year vets, because there isn't a market. Eddie is hurt and what contender outside the division has a big need for a 2B? Given the volume of kids we have that will be R5 eligible, any return would have to be far down the road.

But when it comes to trades, the FO is creative, if anything at all, so you can never discount a major trade. And it usually comes out of the clear blue sky.

Sorry CATS if I missed a conversation about this somewhere. I've been out of town and busy as hell so my time on the board has been lessened. Has anyone actually posted the number of prospects that need protected? There are several players on the current 40 man that can go away without issue. I suspect that after the missed 2020 season, several teams will be or are in the same situation so maybe the Indians benefit from the R5 even if it means they lose a valuable prospect or 2, but that is total speculation on my part.

Any trade will likely be aimed at improving this team in 22 and beyond. That's as safe a bet as there is IMO.

I think they need to trade TMac if possible. Not because I don't like the kid or because I don't think he can pitch, but because I fear his durability will always be a concern.

Edited to say that the best way to help alleviate the roster crunch is to trade multiple players for one. That likely means taking on a contract and they certainly have the space to do so. Within reason of course.

 

[sportscoach]

Sorry CATS if I missed a conversation about this somewhere. I've been out of town and busy as hell so my time on the board has been lessened. Has anyone actually posted the number of prospects that need protected? There are several players on the current 40 man that can go away without issue. I suspect that after the missed 2020 season, several teams will be or are in the same situation so maybe the Indians benefit from the R5 even if it means they lose a valuable prospect or 2, but that is total speculation on my part.

Any trade will likely be aimed at improving this team in 22 and beyond. That's as safe a bet as there is IMO.

I think they need to trade TMac if possible. Not because I don't like the kid or because I don't think he can pitch, but because I fear his durability will always be a concern.

Edited to say that the best way to help alleviate the roster crunch is to trade multiple players for one. That likely means taking on a contract and they certainly have the space to do so. Within reason of course.

Indians I am pretty sure are committed to TMac, so I don't think he goes anywhere. Plesac will go before TMac. I will gladly bet on that one...

I agree with Cats that trading a Hernandez, Eddie, Wittgren etc will net us a lower prospect, but that's actually not a bad thing. We need prospects that don't need to be Rule 5 protected til 23 or later anyways... I'll take a few lotto tickets right now for the organization of we trade those guys.

This Rule 5 will be an odd ball year I think. With the prospects missing time, it slowed some players development down and now we have to figure, is any team going to pick a player that haven't played above A Ball yet?

Next season, Hernandez, Eddie, Shaw, Parker, DJ Johnson will all be gone from the 40 man. At the moment, Naylor, Hill and Luplow have three of those spots. Leaving only two spots open, so we will have to move on from other players hence why the rumor of someone like Wittgren getting moved makes sense. One of Mercado/Zimmer will likely be gone, if not both depending on what the plans are with Amed (one will be our 4th OF in a sense cause of defensive replacement). I think Chang is gone as well, but I actually think he will succeed on his new team (Urshela in a sense). I'm also not sure if we keep both Maton and Hill as well. So that's another area a player could be moved. Luplow and HRam are on the bubble for different reasons (one is health and the other is poor defense).

We also don't know the CBA either, they I am sure are gonna fight to get service time changed some, so that's the one area I don't know how they are going to change the effect on when a players MLB clock starts.. A Lot of unknown factors in 22.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think the key will be what happens immediately after the break when the Indians start the second half with 10 games against Oakland (50-40), Houston (54-35), and Tampa (52-36). They're playing Oakland and Houston on the road. So far this season they're 0-4 against Houston (at home) and 0-3 against Tampa.

Hoynes had this:

Right now the rotation looks like this: Plesac, McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Eli Morgan. Bieber and Civale are “weeks away’ from rejoining the rotation according to Chris Antonetti, president of baseball operations. Who knows what the rotation will look like when the Indians come out of the break for a six-game trip to Oakland and Houston?

Ten games against three of the best teams in the A.L. with that rotation plus somebody else not yet identified, probably Peacock. Wow. Going 2-8 or even 1-9 is very realistic. These aren't the Royals and they won't be swinging at pitches up around their eyeballs like the Royals do.

Eddie Rosario is also expected to be out for a couple of weeks or more. How about that outfield of Zimmer, Mercado, and Johnson? Hey, they all got a single last night.

But if the Tribe can win these last two games against the Royals and go 5-5 coming out of the break with Bieber, Civale, and Rosario poised to return around Aug. 1 the front office might just decide to hang onto Eddie, Cesar, and Wittgren and go for it. They're 28-12 when the Big Three start. If McKenzie puts together a couple of starts coming out of the break where he throws the ball like he did last night and if Quantrill can build off his last start where he pitched into the 6th inning against the Astros we might just have a contending team.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

By the way, Jose Ramirez in 2019 hit .320 in July, .321 in August, and .333 in September after hitting .214 through June 30. If he and Franmil get going in the second half, look out.

 

[CDAV45]

I think the key will be what happens immediately after the break when the Indians start the second half with 10 games against Oakland (50-40), Houston (54-35), and Tampa (52-36). They're playing Oakland and Houston on the road. So far this season they're 0-4 against Houston (at home) and 0-3 against Tampa.

Hoynes had this:

Right now the rotation looks like this: Plesac, McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Eli Morgan. Bieber and Civale are “weeks away’ from rejoining the rotation according to Chris Antonetti, president of baseball operations. Who knows what the rotation will look like when the Indians come out of the break for a six-game trip to Oakland and Houston?

Ten games against three of the best teams in the A.L. with that rotation plus somebody else not yet identified, probably Peacock. Wow. Going 2-8 or even 1-9 is very realistic. These aren't the Royals and they won't be swinging at pitches up around their eyeballs like the Royals do.

Eddie Rosario is also expected to be out for a couple of weeks or more. How about that outfield of Zimmer, Mercado, and Johnson? Hey, they all got a single last night.

But if the Tribe can win these last two games against the Royals and go 5-5 coming out of the break with Bieber, Civale, and Rosario poised to return around Aug. 1 the front office might just decide to hang onto Eddie, Cesar, and Wittgren and go for it. They're 28-12 when the Big Three start. If McKenzie puts together a couple of starts coming out of the break where he throws the ball like he did last night and if Quantrill can build off his last start where he pitched into the 6th inning against the Astros we might just have a contending team.

It seems so unlikely that OF mix could provide much of anything and the beginning of August seems a lifetime away right now. It's not impossible, but it's highly improbable unless they make a move or 2. I'd still look toward next season with any move I made, but CA and MC could surprise us.

Would you pursue someone like Jon Gray at this time? The only way I would do that if there was an agreement to an extension and that doesn't seem to be inline with what they're doing. I'm just not interested in giving up anything of value for a short term piece.

My present entertainment itch is being scratched by figuring out which players are worth keeping and which ones need to go. I'm done with Zimmer, Mercado, Chang, one of Hedges/Perez, and Johnson is getting close. I'd love to see a move made to pick up a young OF with some offensive potential, but I'm not expecting it.

 

[CDAV45]

Indians I am pretty sure are committed to TMac, so I don't think he goes anywhere. Plesac will go before TMac. I will gladly bet on that one...

I agree with Cats that trading a Hernandez, Eddie, Wittgren etc will net us a lower prospect, but that's actually not a bad thing. We need prospects that don't need to be Rule 5 protected til 23 or later anyways... I'll take a few lotto tickets right now for the organization of we trade those guys.

This Rule 5 will be an odd ball year I think. With the prospects missing time, it slowed some players development down and now we have to figure, is any team going to pick a player that haven't played above A Ball yet?

Next season, Hernandez, Eddie, Shaw, Parker, DJ Johnson will all be gone from the 40 man. At the moment, Naylor, Hill and Luplow have three of those spots. Leaving only two spots open, so we will have to move on from other players hence why the rumor of someone like Wittgren getting moved makes sense. One of Mercado/Zimmer will likely be gone, if not both depending on what the plans are with Amed (one will be our 4th OF in a sense cause of defensive replacement). I think Chang is gone as well, but I actually think he will succeed on his new team (Urshela in a sense). I'm also not sure if we keep both Maton and Hill as well. So that's another area a player could be moved. Luplow and HRam are on the bubble for different reasons (one is health and the other is poor defense).

We also don't know the CBA either, they I am sure are gonna fight to get service time changed some, so that's the one area I don't know how they are going to change the effect on when a players MLB clock starts.. A Lot of unknown factors in 22.

First off, nobody ever said that the return for Cesar or Eddie or Wittgren would be for prospects that have to be on the 40 man. That was inaccurately implied.

As has been pointed out by folks here many times, there are several fringe players on the 40 man that can be designated or given their outright release. I counted 10 on the 40 man now that wouldn't be missed or are gone after this season. That 10 didn't include any on the 60 day IL or Shaw, who I'd like to see resigned. Factor in an astute trade or 2 and there could easily be 3-4 more spots opened up. With just about every team facing this dilemma, I think the concern is a bit overblown.

I doubt either Plesac or TMac go anywhere, but TMac's inconsistency and durability concerns probably make him a better candidate to be traded. His youth, upside, and inexpensive cost might make him a bit more attractive to other teams, but it's hard to say. If Plesac gets his shit together and begins to fit in better with the culture then he could be a mainstay. That's all speculation on my part.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It seems so unlikely that OF mix could provide much of anything and the beginning of August seems a lifetime away right now. It's not impossible, but it's highly improbable unless they make a move or 2. I'd still look toward next season with any move I made, but CA and MC could surprise us.

Would you pursue someone like Jon Gray at this time? The only way I would do that if there was an agreement to an extension and that doesn't seem to be inline with what they're doing. I'm just not interested in giving up anything of value for a short term piece.

My present entertainment itch is being scratched by figuring out which players are worth keeping and which ones need to go. I'm done with Zimmer, Mercado, Chang, one of Hedges/Perez, and Johnson is getting close. I'd love to see a move made to pick up a young OF with some offensive potential, but I'm not expecting it.

I'll admit I know nothing about Jon Gray, but a quick glance at his splits reveals he has a 5.16 ERA and batters are hitting .315 against him away from Coors Field. They're hitting .160 against him at home. If I were going to trade for a starting pitcher I would look for splits that were the opposite of what Gray has.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about Mercado. After starting out 0-for-9 he's 6-for-19 with 3 walks for an OBP of .409. And it's not just the numbers - he just looks more relaxed and comfortable at the dish. His first two at-bats last night were fly balls to the right field corner and the right field warning track, so even his outs were pretty well hit. I also like that he's going to the opposite field and not trying to pull everything.

The outfield is not as bad off as it looks right now. After the break I could see an OF of Rosario in left, Harold in right, and Mercado in center. Offense on the corners, defense in the center. Not great, but not awful, especially if Harold and Eddie are hitting up the their capabilities and Mercado can just chip in with a little offense.

If Quantrill and McKenzie can just pitch up to the level of their last starts we could have an elite rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, and Quantrill. But has Tristan made a breakthrough or was last night's performance an outlier against a bad team? What about Quantrill's five strong innings against the Astros - best offense in the A.L? Was that an anomaly or did he figure something out?

The thing is we don't have much to sell and I'm with you on not giving up anything of value for a short term piece. I say just roll with what he have and if everybody is healthy (except Naylor) in the second half they could make a strong playoff run, especially with six strong teams in the East and West beating up on each other.

 

[xmasbuck]

has Tristan made a breakthrough or was last night's performance an outlier against a bad team

I tend to believe last nights performance was part of the process of Triston becoming a major league pitcher with a pretty high ceiling

still

in 15.2 innings v kc this season he's given up 1 ER - leaving him with 34 innings and 29 runs v everybody else

 

[CDAV45]

I'll admit I know nothing about Jon Gray, but a quick glance at his splits reveals he has a 5.16 ERA and batters are hitting .315 against him away from Coors Field. They're hitting .160 against him at home. If I were going to trade for a starting pitcher I would look for splits that were the opposite of what Gray has.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about Mercado. After starting out 0-for-9 he's 6-for-19 with 3 walks for an OBP of .409. And it's not just the numbers - he just looks more relaxed and comfortable at the dish. His first two at-bats last night were fly balls to the right field corner and the right field warning track, so even his outs were pretty well hit. I also like that he's going to the opposite field and not trying to pull everything.

The outfield is not as bad off as it looks right now. After the break I could see an OF of Rosario in left, Harold in right, and Mercado in center. Offense on the corners, defense in the center. Not great, but not awful, especially if Harold and Eddie are hitting up the their capabilities and Mercado can just chip in with a little offense.

If Quantrill and McKenzie can just pitch up to the level of their last starts we could have an elite rotation of Bieber, Civale, Plesac, McKenzie, and Quantrill. But has Tristan made a breakthrough or was last night's performance an outlier against a bad team? What about Quantrill's five strong innings against the Astros - best offense in the A.L? Was that an anomaly or did he figure something out?

The thing is we don't have much to sell and I'm with you on not giving up anything of value for a short term piece. I say just roll with what he have and if everybody is healthy (except Naylor) in the second half they could make a strong playoff run, especially with six strong teams in the East and West beating up on each other.

I wouldn't be concerned about Gray's splits. It's an anomaly IMO. I'm fine with going with what they have. Once Bieber and Civale return they should be able to fill the last 2 spots adequately with Quantrill, McKenzie, Mejia, Hentges, Morgan, or my new favorite Garza. There's depth, it just needs refined.

I don't blame anyone for being optimistic on guys like Mercado and Zimmer. There's certainly talent in both players. I just feel that Mercado will always be a hitter that tends to get long after a brief hitting streak. Especially if he pops a few HR's. Defensively there can't be any complaints because both are very good. I'll admit that I fiend for a big bat in RF, and I have for quite some time. I was watching a bit of the Tampa/Toronto game today and couldn't help but think how awesome it would be if we had Teoscar.

There's plenty to sell, and the biggest share of it probably isn't on the major league roster. I do think there is a good market for BP guys like Wittgren and Maton. Cesar would be a good fit for a few teams with the best one being in our division. I'm not certain what the market for Eddie would look like even if he didn't get injured. It will be interesting to see what happens, if anything happens at all.