The season will depend, as it always does, on health first.
If the rotation and Clase stay reasonably healthy, the foundation for a contending season is in place. The defense up the middle should be much improved...catchers, Gimenez at short, and Straw in center. And no Harold around to butcher everything will be a plus, although Naylor will be an adventure. Eddie, Harold, Gamel, Johnson, and Luplow combined for over 350 games in the OF last season. Amed and Kwan...if they stick in the corners...will be a big improvement.
Run prevention will be the name of the game, and the team is built for it. Even without our rotation intact last year and less than stellar defense, we gave up three runs or less in almost half our games, and went 60-16 in those.
76 games of 3 or less runs is the lowest total we've had in a full season since 2016, also 76 games. In the others we've had between 81 and 94.
Nobody on our offense over performed last season, so I dont expect regression from any position. But we should get an extra 140 combined games from Straw and Franmil. (There are the offensive additions.) Plus, two players I expect to produce much better this year are Franmil and Gimenez. Now, all we need is one other kiddie (Kwan? Miller? Bradley?) to turn into a productive MLB bat.
It is true that Chicago, Minnesota, and Detroit made additions. But pitching is still the name of the game.
Chicago lost 24 starts from Rodon and will lose at least ten from Lynn. Thats 30+ starts from their two best pitchers last year. How did losing 30 starts from our rotation work last year?
Minnesotas rotation is Gray, ?,?,?,?. Detroits is Rodriguez and 520 combined MLB IP.
*****************
We began the off season as a 87 win team. We've done nothing external to improve it, while the others did. Our FO and a lot of fans expect the unknown to vastly improve this team. I expect them to be partially right.
If we stay reasonably healthy, 84 wins...give or take...and second place. But if Chicago loses another SP, things could be interesting.
