2022 Cleveland Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Team president Chris Antonetti believes the Guardians’ best baseball is in front of them....Antonetti also believes Cleveland will see a course correction with some of its pitchers.

We may be starting to see that already. Here are the last five starts:

Plesac: 6 IP, 2 earned runs
Quantrill: 7 IP, 1 run
Civale: 6.1 IP, 0 runs
Bieber: 7 IP, 2 runs, 10 K's
McKenzie: 7 IP, 1 run

Granted those first four starts were against Cincinnati and Detroit, but still, I'm seeing some improvement. We'll see if Plesac and Quantrill can keep it going against the Astros.

Tito is also starting to sort things out in the bullpen. Stephan and Hentges have emerged as the go-to guys in high leverage situations that need a bridge to the closer. De Los Santos is also emerging as a guy who can consistently get you a scoreless inning in a close game.

Sandlin is struggling with 12 walks in 14 innings and only 9 K's. He can't be trusted in high leverage situations right now. Last year he had 48 K's in 33 innings, so his K-rate is way down and his walk rate way up.

But Sandlin is coming off an arm injury that ended his season and only faced 10 batters in the abbreviated spring training, so he didn't really have the chance to pitch much before the season started. Hopefully as we get deeper into the season he'll regain his command.

 

[DickyLeftridge]

Thoughts on TMac's emergence so far? Is he our #2 now? 2.70 and a sub 1 WHIP. Still just 24 years old until August.

 

[33Y0]

Thoughts on TMac's emergence so far? Is he our #2 now? 2.70 and a sub 1 WHIP. Still just 24 years old until August.

I love TMac... he's had a weird season statistically speaking..

His K/9 so far this year is 7.68 which is the lowest of his career at any level. Here's his K/9 per year and level:
2015 (R): 12.75
2016 (A-): 10.03
2016 (A): 12.97
2017 (A+): 11.71
2018 (AA): 8.64
2020 (MLB): 11.34
2021 (AAA): 9.70
2021 (MLB): 10.20
2022 (MLB): 7.68

The good news is that his BB/9 has improved. So far this year, it's sitting at 2.49, his lowest since his rookie year in 2020 when it was 2.43. He's also cut down on his HR/9 to 0.83, his lowest since 2018 when he was in AA.

But then you kinda go back to the weird twist again. His ERA currently sits at 2.70, but his xERA is 3.69 (which, in today's game still isn't TERRIBLE). His FIP is 3.64 but then his xFIP is 4.19. Then if you look at some of his Statcast data, his EV is the highest it's been since being in the bigs at 91.8 (which isn't necessarily a bad thing given his low HR/9). His barrel % is actually the lowest it's been since being in the bigs at 8.0%. Then you swing back to his hard hit % is the highest it's been since being in the bigs at 47.8%.

 

[DickyLeftridge]

I love TMac... he's had a weird season statistically speaking..

His K/9 so far this year is 7.68 which is the lowest of his career at any level. Here's his K/9 per year and level:
2015 (R): 12.75
2016 (A-): 10.03
2016 (A): 12.97
2017 (A+): 11.71
2018 (AA): 8.64
2020 (MLB): 11.34
2021 (AAA): 9.70
2021 (MLB): 10.20
2022 (MLB): 7.68

The good news is that his BB/9 has improved. So far this year, it's sitting at 2.49, his lowest since his rookie year in 2020 when it was 2.43. He's also cut down on his HR/9 to 0.83, his lowest since 2018 when he was in AA.

But then you kinda go back to the weird twist again. His ERA currently sits at 2.70, but his xERA is 3.69 (which, in today's game still isn't TERRIBLE). His FIP is 3.64 but then his xFIP is 4.19. Then if you look at some of his Statcast data, his EV is the highest it's been since being in the bigs at 91.8 (which isn't necessarily a bad thing given his low HR/9). His barrel % is actually the lowest it's been since being in the bigs at 8.0%. Then you swing back to his hard hit % is the highest it's been since being in the bigs at 47.8%.

Thanks. So after all this swinging back and forth, what's the conclusion? Poised to be our #2 this year and maybe moving forward? Poised to be a GOAT? Or JAG city?

 

[CDAV45]

Thanks. So after all this swinging back and forth, what's the conclusion? Poised to be our #2 this year and maybe moving forward? Poised to be a GOAT? Or JAG city?

He's pitching like our #1 now. Question is can he keep it up and/or will Bieber regain his form. Looking forward it will depend on the development and health of guys like Espino, Williams, Hankins and a couple of others. These guys have the stuff dreams are made of, but can they harness it? I'm not so concerned with where a particular pitcher is in the rotation order, but how well they pitch. In other words it's hard to say and impossible to predict.

 

[33Y0]

Thanks. So after all this swinging back and forth, what's the conclusion? Poised to be our #2 this year and maybe moving forward? Poised to be a GOAT? Or JAG city?

I think perhaps he's been a little lucky this season, but he's certainly been our best pitcher to date in our rotation. My bigger concern right now is with Bieber.

 

[sportscoach]

I think perhaps he's been a little lucky this season, but he's certainly been our best pitcher to date in our rotation. My bigger concern right now is with Bieber.

I'm honestly waiting to July to make a judgement on the SPs... they were ramped up during the season and the last time through, everyone had quality starts. We are used to better from Bieber, but it's not like his last start was even bad. If we can normally get quality starts from all 5, then we have a legit chance of getting a wild card spot.

 

[33Y0]

I'm honestly waiting to July to make a judgement on the SPs... they were ramped up during the season and the last time through, everyone had quality starts. We are used to better from Bieber, but it's not like his last start was even bad. If we can normally get quality starts from all 5, then we have a legit chance of getting a wild card spot.

I think our hitting still has to improve a little to make a legit push for WC. And hey, who knows, maybe that'll come too. I mean, Franmil can't be much worse, can he?

 

[sportscoach]

I think our hitting still has to improve a little to make a legit push for WC. And hey, who knows, maybe that'll come too. I mean, Franmil can't be much worse, can he?

We are all hoping he does, but if he doesn't then that makes trading for a 1B/RF more important if we are trying to contend...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I love TMac... he's had a weird season statistically speaking..

His K/9 so far this year is 7.68 which is the lowest of his career at any level. Here's his K/9 per year and level:
2015 (R): 12.75
2016 (A-): 10.03
2016 (A): 12.97
2017 (A+): 11.71
2018 (AA): 8.64
2020 (MLB): 11.34
2021 (AAA): 9.70
2021 (MLB): 10.20
2022 (MLB): 7.68

The good news is that his BB/9 has improved. So far this year, it's sitting at 2.49, his lowest since his rookie year in 2020 when it was 2.43. He's also cut down on his HR/9 to 0.83, his lowest since 2018 when he was in AA.

But then you kinda go back to the weird twist again. His ERA currently sits at 2.70, but his xERA is 3.69 (which, in today's game still isn't TERRIBLE). His FIP is 3.64 but then his xFIP is 4.19. Then if you look at some of his Statcast data, his EV is the highest it's been since being in the bigs at 91.8 (which isn't necessarily a bad thing given his low HR/9). His barrel % is actually the lowest it's been since being in the bigs at 8.0%. Then you swing back to his hard hit % is the highest it's been since being in the bigs at 47.8%.

Looks like they're hitting the ball hard against him (47.8%) but they're not getting it in the air (8.0% barrel). On Monday, Brantley hit two line drives but both were right at Straw in center.

With the dramatic increase in defensive shifts, more line drives and hard hit ground balls are being turned into outs than ever before. A pitcher who gives up a lot of line drives and sharp ground balls can still be successful as long as he does not allow the hitters to elevate the ball (barrel it), which is what it appears Tristan is doing.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think our hitting still has to improve a little to make a legit push for WC. And hey, who knows, maybe that'll come too. I mean, Franmil can't be much worse, can he?

Franmil has two hits in his last 21 at-bats; a single and double. This will be Game 40 and he is hitting .195 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI's. He is easily the most disappointing player on the team so far, and I don't see any contenders. Amed Rosario at .236/.575 and Zach Plesac with a 5.40 ERA are the only other players who are even in the conversation for that award.

One-quarter of a season is more than a slump. Franmil started May going 12-for-23 in the first six games. It looked like he just had a bad April and was ready to get rolling. But since then he's 4-for-36 with 14 K's. He got his head above water for a brief moment and is now drowning again.

I would just bat him 7th until he figures it out. Right now he can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. I keep looking for signs, like his final at-bat last night when he was down 1-2 and took three close pitches to draw a walk. That was encouraging.

He's 6-for-35 (.171) against left-handed pitching. He's a mess and Valaikas doesn't seem to have the answer. His strikeout percentage is 39% against a career average of 30%. His wRC+ is 58 against a career average of 114. He's literally half the hitter he has been. He ended last year at 125.

His slugging percentage has declined by nearly 50% from last year. When he does get a hit it's usually a single.

What is really down from last year according to FanGraphs is his HR/FB percentage. Last year an amazing 30.6% of his fly balls cleared the fence; this year it's 12.0%. His ability to hit both the fastball and slider has declined dramatically. It looks like his bat speed may be diminished, especially with the dramatic drop in fly balls clearing the fence. However, his average exit velocity is the highest of his career and so is his hard hit percentage, according to Statcast.

So many contradictions in the data. His strikeouts are way up but when he hits the ball he's hitting it just as hard. How can he be putting up the best hard hit and exit velocity numbers of his career with so little production? Well, his line drive percentage is up 4.5% while his fly ball percentage is down 3.5%. When he does hit the ball it's more likely to be on the ground or a line drive, and when he gets it in the air it's not going out. Just three home runs in 133 at-bats is not going to cut it.

A couple of games ago he hit a pitch on the screws and dropped the bat, thinking it was out. Instead it was caught on the warning track in right center. Is it the humidors? Balls aren't carrying like they used to?

 

[33Y0]

Franmil has two hits in his last 21 at-bats; a single and double. This will be Game 40 and he is hitting .195 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI's. He is easily the most disappointing player on the team so far, and I don't see any contenders. Amed Rosario at .236/.575 and Zach Plesac with a 5.40 ERA are the only other players who are even in the conversation for that award.

One-quarter of a season is more than a slump. Franmil started May going 12-for-23 in the first six games. It looked like he just had a bad April and was ready to get rolling. But since then he's 4-for-36 with 14 K's. He got his head above water for a brief moment and is now drowning again.

I would just bat him 7th until he figures it out. Right now he can't hit a breaking ball to save his life. I keep looking for signs, like his final at-bat last night when he was down 1-2 and took three close pitches to draw a walk. That was encouraging.

He's 6-for-35 (.171) against left-handed pitching. He's a mess and Valaikas doesn't seem to have the answer. His strikeout percentage is 39% against a career average of 30%. His wRC+ is 58 against a career average of 114. He's literally half the hitter he has been. He ended last year at 125.

His slugging percentage has declined by nearly 50% from last year. When he does get a hit it's usually a single.

What is really down from last year according to FanGraphs is his HR/FB percentage. Last year an amazing 30.6% of his fly balls cleared the fence; this year it's 12.0%. His ability to hit both the fastball and slider has declined dramatically. It looks like his bat speed may be diminished, especially with the dramatic drop in fly balls clearing the fence. However, his average exit velocity is the highest of his career and so is his hard hit percentage, according to Statcast.

So many contradictions in the data. His strikeouts are way up but when he hits the ball he's hitting it just as hard. How can he be putting up the best hard hit and exit velocity numbers of his career with so little production? Well, his line drive percentage is up 4.5% while his fly ball percentage is down 3.5%. When he does hit the ball it's more likely to be on the ground or a line drive, and when he gets it in the air it's not going out. Just three home runs in 133 at-bats is not going to cut it.

A couple of games ago he hit a pitch on the screws and dropped the bat, thinking it was out. Instead it was caught on the warning track in right center. Is it the humidors? Balls aren't carrying like they used to?

IMO, I 100% believe that MLB messing with the balls this year is why offense is down league-wide. No doubt in my mind. Any there are many across MLB who believe that during the Sunday primetime games that they're using different balls to juice the offense for viewership (and it's generally backed up by numbers) while in all other games, they're using these stupid other balls.

 

[CATS44]

A few thoughts:

Not only has the rotation not been totally ramped up until about now, they have not been able to get into a normal rhythm yet.

Starting pitchers are programmed to pitch every fifth day. They have very specific daily routines. But so far, they havent been able to stay in their routines. They've combined for 37 starts, but only seven of those have been made on a normal four
days of rest.

Once the rainouts stop and the routines get set, they are very likely to be closer to normal....and normal is a very good thing.

********

The offensive 'woes' revolve around one player...Franmil. This offense was designed to be built around Jose and Franmil at the 3-4 spots. That decision was made several years ago. Franmils disappearance is a total enigma. There was nothing to indicate this happening...and there isn't much, if anything, that the org can do about it.

A 3-4-5-6 of Jose-Franmil-Naylor-Miller is pretty darn potent, IF Franmil is doing his normal thing.

When Franmil starts hitting, the offense will be more than fine. If he doesn't, the offense is screwed. The only thing that can be done is to wait it out.

The team as a whole is getting on base. It needs Franmil to start knocking guys in.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

A few thoughts:

Not only has the rotation not been totally ramped up until about now, they have not been able to get into a normal rhythm yet.

Starting pitchers are programmed to pitch every fifth day. They have very specific daily routines. But so far, they havent been able to stay in their routines. They've combined for 37 starts, but only seven of those have been made on a normal four
days of rest.

Once the rainouts stop and the routines get set, they are very likely to be closer to normal....and normal is a very good thing.

********

The offensive 'woes' revolve around one player...Franmil. This offense was designed to be built around Jose and Franmil at the 3-4 spots. That decision was made several years ago. Franmils disappearance is a total enigma. There was nothing to indicate this happening...and there isn't much, if anything, that the org can do about it.

A 3-4-5-6 of Jose-Franmil-Naylor-Miller is pretty darn potent, IF Franmil is doing his normal thing.

When Franmil starts hitting, the offense will be more than fine. If he doesn't, the offense is screwed. The only thing that can be done is to wait it out.

The team as a whole is getting on base. It needs Franmil to start knocking guys in.

Would you be in favor of dropping Reyes in the batting order until he starts hitting? For example,

Straw CF
Rosario LF
Jose 3B
Naylor 1B
Miller 2B
Gimenez SS
Franmil DH
Kwan/Mercado RF
Hedges/Maile C

Good point about the rainouts messing with the timing of the starters' preparations in addition to the shortened spring traing. Like Antonetti said, the starting pitching should start to pick up and we have seen signs of that.

In the last seven games before last night Guardians' starters have a 1.94 ERA and a .202 BAA.

 

[xmasbuck]

re offense - our obp is now 16th in the bigs - since the first 10 days of the season, it has done nothing but fall