So, going off on a long tangent here, as some of us were targeting who would be the 2022 pitching prospects to break into the 4th/5th starter roles. There are a whole lot of variables that go into trying to project minor leaguers on a major league level … You have things like velocity, tunnelling, consistent release point on different pitches, movement from the tunnel, injury, and a whole lot of other things like BAA, Ks, W that you can look at. One of the focus points was on K/W ratio being a big factor and why the new guys standout better than the national rankings.
For last year (other than Morgan which I did his career instead due to his few innings last year in Columbus)
Tobias Myers – 5/1 K/W last year, .228 BAA, 11.2 K per 9, .293 BAA
Pilkington – 3/1 K/W, .178 BAA, 10.9 K per 9, .234 BABIP (huge decrease)
Allen – 5.5/1 K/W, .193 BAA, 11.6 K per 9, .265 BABIP
Battenfield – 6.9/1 K/W, .175 BAA, 11.5 per 9, .234 BABIP
Morgan (career milb) -- 4/1 K/W career, .230 BAA, 10 k per 9, .304 BABIP
Morris – 4.7/1 K/W, .189 BAA, 13.7 K per 9, .311 BABIP (was .371 first season)
Now, just on first glance, I previously discounted K/W ratios because you can throw a beachball down the middle and walk no one but get the career AAAA guy to swing through your sliders. Yet, the issue I have with Morgan is that doesn’t work in the MLB as hitters will crush anything (90 mph fastball) that has too much of the plate (his .304 BABIP).
Pilkington has me the most concern (as his rankings suggest). The .178 BAA looks great but it is based on his BABIP going down from the .310+ range to .234. Now, if he found a pitch that hitters, even if they make contact, can’t barrel, great. But, sometimes as others say here, it is just plain luck (like getting heads 5 times in a row) that will even out next year.
And, I have been a big fan of Morris as he cruised through this year with a high K rate, but his BABIP was also down from .371 to .311. Was he starting to develop a 3rd pitch to lower BABIP (keeping people off his FB) or was .311 lucky in 2021 (if it goes back up in 2022)?
Battenfield intrigued me the most because his BABIP is consistently low .245 and .234 in his 2 years (probably hard to barrel right?). Allen could be great but it was his first year which was .265 (better than Morgan .304 career without the lower levels to pad stats). Tobias also concerns me because he had more of a 2 to 2.5 K/W ratios in 2018 and 2019 to 5/1 now. Yet, it is mainly due to his K/9 going up (from 6-8 per 9 range to 11 this year). Saw a report that some of his velocity has come back which may have helped (versus just lucky).
Why did I look at these stats? My main concerns with using numbers are sometimes they mislead you. A pitcher can have a high K/W rate because he doesn’t miss the middle of the plate much (doesn’t paint corners that he needs in majors). Yet, the BABIP and K per 9 can point out issues of just throwing beachballs down the middle (if BABIP is high and K per 9 is low).
Thus, until I can see some game action, I thought I would just go back and look at how other Akron AA pitchers did in prior years and how they evolved. First, I thought a good stat is if a pitcher did a 3.0 K/W and did at least 9 to 10 K per 9 as I saw others like Louis Head have 3.4 K/W ratio but 8 K per 9 (in 2016). Then I ran across something, Bieber before he got called up had his ridiculous 267 K to 21 W but in 283 innings (8.5K per 9 which is less than my 9 K per 9 to weed out others but close enough). In MLB, Bieber K per 9 has gone up from 8.5 to 11.3.
Just some other names from 2016-2021 with 3 K/W and 30 innings (as less is just luck). For me, it is just amazing how K per 9 increase in 2021 vs prior years (shouldn’t be just that arms were stronger after a year off, even from “Great Scott”).
2016 (name, k/w and K per 9)
Louis Head 3.39 8.11
Merryweather 3.59 7.42
Perci Garner 4.27 8.29
Adam Plutko 5.25 7.91
2017
Cam Hill 3.13 7.22
D. J. Brown 3.15 7.63
Whitehouse 3.22 7.07
Pannone 3.86 8.86
Merryweather 5.20 9.23
Shane Bieber 9.80 8.12
2018
McKenzie 3.11 8.63
Martinez 3.56 8.81
Aaron Civale 3.71 6.60
David Speer 3.77 7.11
Shao Chiang 4.15 6.82
Mike Peoples 4.33 7.24
Shane Bieber 30.00 8.71
2019
Eli Morgan 3.15 9.18
Adam Scott 3.52 8.84
Rob Kaminsky 3.75 8.63
Aaron Civale 4.00 7.13
Zach Plesac 5.67 8.20
2021
Adam Scott 3.33 11.02
Tanner Tully 3.56 7.78
Battenfield 5.14 9.08
Aaron Pinto 5.15 14.02
Nic Enright 5.60 12.70
Logan Allen 5.85 11.40
Mikolajchak 6.33 12.92