2022 NBA Draft Safari

[InBoobieWeTrust]

I could get on board with Eason.

I really like Tevin Brown 2nd round player 6’5 but can shoot the hell out of the ball. I think he will shoot it very well in the league

I just want to add shooting to all facets of the roster. Veteran shooters than can help us win now and rookies who can get used to the speed of professional basketball and potentially help us as depth now and maybe emerge as a long term player down the road. He also averaged 1.4 steals and .6 blocks a game.

He can defend. He can do a little play making. He moves great off the ball. Could be a great fit alongside a guy like Sexton with his size at 6’5 OR a super sized lineup with him/LeVert in the backcourt.

He’s not an explosive athlete. Definitely needs the weigh room a bit. But he’s a relatively polished player with a two way skill set that includes a really good looking jumper.

If we pass on Ochai for a wing prospect like Eason I think following that up with a more polished offensive prospect. He could theoretically be a better shooter than Agbaji even. Definitely a better playmaker, just not as athletic/explosive.

I’d be ecstatic with a Tori Eason/Tevin Brown/Isiah Mobley draft. I’d do cartwheels in the street. Or Eason/Minnott/Brown/Mobley as a UDFA

Anyone else like Tevin Brown? How does he look in the advanced model?

 

[daytripper]

He is intriguing. Incidentally, my son played against Minott probably 4x, including against his high school team last year. They were defending state champs and we beat them in their gym. Anquan Boldin, Jr. was also on that team.

Here’s a quick synopsis. Good athlete, but needs to get stronger. Played some point forward and can handle the ball on the perimeter. Funky looking outside shot that needs refinement and work. He’s a genuinely nice kid and a hard worker. Seemed to get caught in a numbers game at Memphis.

Very cool man. Great synopsis. I like drafting good kids/hard workers. My son also played against several big time prospects while he was in HS in SoCal too. It was always a big kick for him and me to watch him do that. He got dunked on by Kenyon Martin JR (ok he didn't like that but he laughs about it now). He also got to play against the Mobley brothers and a few others such as Jaylen Clark that plays at UCLA and few younger kids that will be headed to big programs such as Kylan Boswell and Jared McCain.

 

[cavsfever]

@CBBI asked for this, so here is an updated list.

This isn't my tiers yet.....I can post that after the combine......it is an aggregate mock rank across various popular big board sites.

This is just a temperature check on how my model views where these guys fall.

It really hates Davis..... .......but as you can see, there are 11-12 really strong profiles in this draft lottery.

It also identifies the wing project everyone wants in Dieng, who can be had at far less capital.

maybe I don't understand -- your model says Keegan Murray is the best player in the draft?

 

[I'mWithDan]

maybe I don't understand -- your model says Keegan Murray is the best player in the draft?

He's listed as a SF here......which is what is inflating his profile.

Historically, the SF spot is full of under producers in college.....just with how college teams tend to deploy them.

He'll be moved to PF when I do a final update. That position switch will pull him down a good amount but still be a safe bet to be an NBA player.

As I have said before, there are still qualitative measures here. The model is mainly a litmus test.

You have more success if you can more obviously identify who not to pick, with modeling.......and then use qualitative measures to evaluate that smaller pool, where you historically will have more draft success.

 

[I'mWithDan]

maybe I don't understand -- your model says Keegan Murray is the best player in the draft?

Continued......

Like for example, here were my Tiers last year. It isn't just a measure of look at the higher number......the number helps trim the pool and then you can use some more traditional scouting measures to try to rank them.

I was much higher on guys like Barnes and Wagner, because there are so few wings with plus profiles. So the ranking is relative to their position, not relative to other prospects in the draft. Comparing guys to historical positional peers has been far more effective, from what I see, when trying to sort through the pool of available players.

 

[Cement]

Anyone else like Tevin Brown? How does he look in the advanced model?

 

[roozy]

I could get on board with Eason.

I really like Tevin Brown 2nd round player 6’5 but can shoot the hell out of the ball. I think he will shoot it very well in the league

I just want to add shooting to all facets of the roster. Veteran shooters than can help us win now and rookies who can get used to the speed of professional basketball and potentially help us as depth now and maybe emerge as a long term player down the road. He also averaged 1.4 steals and .6 blocks a game.

He can defend. He can do a little play making. He moves great off the ball. Could be a great fit alongside a guy like Sexton with his size at 6’5 OR a super sized lineup with him/LeVert in the backcourt.

He’s not an explosive athlete. Definitely needs the weigh room a bit. But he’s a relatively polished player with a two way skill set that includes a really good looking jumper.

If we pass on Ochai for a wing prospect like Eason I think following that up with a more polished offensive prospect. He could theoretically be a better shooter than Agbaji even. Definitely a better playmaker, just not as athletic/explosive.

I’d be ecstatic with a Tori Eason/Tevin Brown/Isiah Mobley draft. I’d do cartwheels in the street. Or Eason/Minnott/Brown/Mobley as a UDFA

Anyone else like Tevin Brown? How does he look in the advanced model?

This is exactly how I want it to play out, SF in the 1st round and a good shooter at guard in the 2nd. I dunno if I would take Isiah though, kinda want a backup PG at the end of 2nd.

 

[sailfish]

Very cool man. Great synopsis. I like drafting good kids/hard workers. My son also played against several big time prospects while he was in HS in SoCal too. It was always a big kick for him and me to watch him do that. He got dunked on by Kenyon Martin JR (ok he didn't like that but he laughs about it now). He also got to play against the Mobley brothers and a few others such as Jaylen Clark that plays at UCLA and few younger kids that will be headed to big programs such as Kylan Boswell and Jared McCain.

Thanks! I’m proud of my son and I’m sure you must be of your boy too. He’s on scholarship in college now and, while he’s not Josh Minott, he’d love to play pro ball one day. We shall see.

Would be cool if the Cavs picked Minott. He’s gonna need some time in the G-Lesgue, but, if they’re patient, they could have something in a few years.

 

[daytripper]

Thanks! I’m proud of my son and I’m sure you must be of your boy too. He’s on scholarship in college now and, while he’s not Josh Minott, he’d love to play pro ball one day. We shall see.

Would be cool if the Cavs picked Minott. He’s gonna need some time in the G-Lesgue, but, if they’re patient, they could have something in a few years.

Congrats to your son! My boy got caught up in the covid stuff so only got to play a limited senior season. I should've held him back a year. He just played his freshman season on a juco team and will be playing on scholarship on a D2 school next season. He's very excited about that.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Just to remind everyone the point of my model......

Temp check on 2021......and showing similar trends from previous drafts.

The guys who net out as plus NBA players just overwhelmingly produce relative to their position.

I wait 4-5 years for any definitive opinions.....but year over year, this is just the trend with the model.

Top 10 VORP guys

9/10 (90%) of the top 10 were above median players (0.79 or above).

Top 20 VORP guys, who I had data on (19 of 20).

14/19 (74%) were above median players (0.79 or above).

1 of the guys who missed the median modeling (Herb Jones), had a really good SF profile.....where so few guys even get to median status at that position.

So that is the point of my model. Trying to identify who falls in the high rate of success bucket and draft from those guys (if possible). And similar to my love affair with Eason.......you get a wing that models well, for God sakes draft that guy.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Here is 2020 as well so far:

Top 10 VORP guys

8/10 (80%) of the top 10 were above median players (0.79 or above).

Top 20 VORP guys, who I had data on (19 of 20).

14/19 (74%) were above median players (0.79 or above).

In the off-season, I'll pull every possession era draft and do some more value analysis but this has been the trend for 10+ years here.

If you draft out of that above median pool, you are going to succeed at far, far higher rates. As I mentioned previously, Memphis seems to be the team that has recently been doing something very similar from a modeling perspective. All the guys they have drafted (like Bane above) or acquired (via trade / free agency) have scored really well in total impact metrics.

 

[Ohioplayer00]

This is exactly how I want it to play out, SF in the 1st round and a good shooter at guard in the 2nd. I dunno if I would take Isiah though, kinda want a backup PG at the end of 2nd.

Wait!! Am I missing something? I thought we don’t have a second rounder this year?

 

[AllforOne]

Wait!! Am I missing something? I thought we don’t have a second rounder this year?

The Cavs don't have a second rounder this year. They have two. #dadwouldapprove

They started the season with Houston's and San Antonio's second-round picks. They traded the Houston pick to Indy in the LeVert trade, but also picked up Miami's second-round pick in that deal. So they currently have the second-round picks that originally belonged to San Antonio (#39 overall) and Miami (#58 overall). https://www.tankathon.com/full_draft

 

[sailfish]

Congrats to your son! My boy got caught up in the covid stuff so only got to play a limited senior season. I should've held him back a year. He just played his freshman season on a juco team and will be playing on scholarship on a D2 school next season. He's very excited about that.

That's fantastic! We were fortunate in that we only had a few games cancelled due to Covid. They were undefeated in the regular season and lost a heartbreaker by 2 in the Elite 8. With collegiate athletes being granted an extra year of eligibility, due to Covid, and the transfer portal absolutely blowing up, it created a real problem for the kids in the high school class of 2021. We appealed to our state's high school athletic assoc. to no avail.

He had an offer from a Juco and were looking at some prep schools as well, as he's young for his class anyways. He ended up with 3 real solid college offers, including one that came in late, which he ended up taking. I was pushing for him to redshirt this year as his squad had 2 seniors and 4 graduate players on the roster, but he ended up playing some & getting some valuable experience. He's now grown to 6'8 200 lbs.

 

[Dr No]

Sooooo...so far the realistic favorites of the group are:
Tari Eason
Ochai Agbaji
Dyson Daniels
Ousmane Dieng

Am I missing anyone?

I really don't like any of them very much. What are we looking for right now? Daniels & Dieng can't shoot - at all. How do we pair that with Allen & Mobley? How would they get on the court ahead of Markk & Wade who can shoot? Agbaji I like a little. He shoots well and can elevate, but he has no handles, isn't a great passer, and hasn't been a great defender in his 4 years in college. We have lots of 2's and Agbaji is not an NBA 3. Who does he replace? Eason seems to have the most upside, but he didn't even start on his own college team. Why not? The scouting report talks about explosiveness, toughness and defense with a tendency to be out of control and foul like crazy - isn't that what we already have in Stevens? I don't want another Okoro-like situation where we have to play the guy because he's our first rounder when guys who can get it done better are stuck on the bench.