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The Guardians stay home for a four-game weekend series against the Astros. At 30 games over .500 the Astros are by far the toughest opponent the G’s will face the rest of the season. The next best team they face is the Padres at 15 games over.
The Guardians went 1-2 against the Astros in Houston in May. Their win came when Tristan McKenzie went seven innings, allowing one run. He will start on Sunday. Shane Bieber will not pitch this series.
The Astros are 34-21 on the road. They have the second best record and second best run differential in the A.L. trailing only the Yankees. Basically this series is a middleweight fighter taking on a heavyweight.
The Astros are an average offensive team, ranking 15th in runs per game at 4.43. The Guardians average 4.42, so these teams are dead even offensively. Michael Brantley (.265/.732) is out so that helps.
Pitching is the difference as the Astros rank 2nd in baseball in team ERA at 3.01. They are also 2nd in WHIP. I don’t expect the Guardians to plate many runs this weekend. The Astros starters have ERA’s of 1.81, 2.80, 3.24, and 3.81. Not bad.
Yordan Alvarez is their offensive star, hitting .303 with 30 home runs, 72 RBI’s, and an OPS of 1.063. Jose Altuve is hitting .280/.876. They just traded for Trey Mancini of the Orioles (.267/.754).
Justin Verlander, 39, starts tonight against no-luck Zach Plesac, who has gotten almost no run support this season and has a 2-9 record. That lack of run support is very unlikely to change tonight. Verlander has allowed four runs in his last five starts. On the bright side, Jose Ramirez is 11-for-30 (.367) against Verlander in his career.
Plesac got manhandled by the Astros in May, allowing 7 runs in 4.1 innings. That was when things turned around for him as he allowed only 10 earned runs in his next seven starts. But now he’s in another rough patch having allowed 14 earned runs in his last 18.2 innings over four starts. Plesac has a 3.02 ERA at the Prog against 5.31 on the road so he’s been pretty good at home. His problem has been left-handed hitters (.290/.827) with 9 home runs. If I were Plesac I would walk Yordan Alvarez unless the bases were loaded.
The Astros rank 18th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, 5th in slugging percentage, and 3rd in home runs per game. Like the Diamondbacks, they don't string together singles to score; they hit home runs.
I think an Astros sweep is a realistic possibility. If the Guardians can escape with one win that would be acceptable. These teams are not equal so a split is probably not in the cards, especially since our best starter will not be pitching this series. A split would actually be a huge win for the G's.
The Guardians went 1-2 against the Astros in Houston in May. Their win came when Tristan McKenzie went seven innings, allowing one run. He will start on Sunday. Shane Bieber will not pitch this series.
The Astros are 34-21 on the road. They have the second best record and second best run differential in the A.L. trailing only the Yankees. Basically this series is a middleweight fighter taking on a heavyweight.
The Astros are an average offensive team, ranking 15th in runs per game at 4.43. The Guardians average 4.42, so these teams are dead even offensively. Michael Brantley (.265/.732) is out so that helps.
Pitching is the difference as the Astros rank 2nd in baseball in team ERA at 3.01. They are also 2nd in WHIP. I don’t expect the Guardians to plate many runs this weekend. The Astros starters have ERA’s of 1.81, 2.80, 3.24, and 3.81. Not bad.
Yordan Alvarez is their offensive star, hitting .303 with 30 home runs, 72 RBI’s, and an OPS of 1.063. Jose Altuve is hitting .280/.876. They just traded for Trey Mancini of the Orioles (.267/.754).
Justin Verlander, 39, starts tonight against no-luck Zach Plesac, who has gotten almost no run support this season and has a 2-9 record. That lack of run support is very unlikely to change tonight. Verlander has allowed four runs in his last five starts. On the bright side, Jose Ramirez is 11-for-30 (.367) against Verlander in his career.
Plesac got manhandled by the Astros in May, allowing 7 runs in 4.1 innings. That was when things turned around for him as he allowed only 10 earned runs in his next seven starts. But now he’s in another rough patch having allowed 14 earned runs in his last 18.2 innings over four starts. Plesac has a 3.02 ERA at the Prog against 5.31 on the road so he’s been pretty good at home. His problem has been left-handed hitters (.290/.827) with 9 home runs. If I were Plesac I would walk Yordan Alvarez unless the bases were loaded.
The Astros rank 18th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, 5th in slugging percentage, and 3rd in home runs per game. Like the Diamondbacks, they don't string together singles to score; they hit home runs.
I think an Astros sweep is a realistic possibility. If the Guardians can escape with one win that would be acceptable. These teams are not equal so a split is probably not in the cards, especially since our best starter will not be pitching this series. A split would actually be a huge win for the G's.
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