2023-2024 Playoffs: March Toward _______?

[eChameleon]

The high Saturday is 52 so not a big deal

I don't think I've ever seen them give away a long sleeved shirt for the playoffs.

 

[eChameleon]

Full schedule is here.

 

[Dr No]

Wagner and Banchero about to embarasss our asses.

This is the team i wanted least because of their raw potential

And seeing how we play D we’re bringing our everyone raw potential

We may well struggle with those 2. Mobley and Allen’s size and mobility should help, and even 10-15 minutes of Wade would also help, but they are both good players. What I like about the matchup for us is on the perimeter. If Donovan is mostly healthy we have a big advantage at the guard position. If he can control the pace and flow of the game I think we handle them. It’s also going to require our guys to hit open 3’s. Strus, Okoro, Niang, Vert and Wade (if he plays) are going to get shots as they focus on DM. We need to knock them down.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

If we win this series the Boston series won't start until roughly three weeks from now. Possibly time to get Wade ready if his knee is OK, which they say it is, structurally at least.

 

[jjvors]

Playoff predictions for Orlando series:
Game 1: 52% chance of victory 111-101 Cavs

Game 2: If Game 1 lost, Game 2 chance of victory 50% 112-109 Cavs
If Game 1 won, Game 2 chance of victory 55% 117-110

Game 3: If 1-1, chance of victory 48% Cavs 109-104
If 2-0, chance of victory 51% Cavs 115-110
If 0-2, chance of victory 44% Cavs 108-101

Game 4: If 2-1, chance of victory 50% Cavs 113-106
If 1-2, chance of victory 45%, Cavs 114--111
If 3-0, chance of victory 54% Cavs 119-106
If 0-3, chance of victory 40%, Cavs 111-109

Game 5, If 3-1, chance of victory 56%, Cavs 120-111
If 2-2, chance of victory 52%, Cavs 113-107
If 1-3, chance of victory 48%, Cavs 112-108

Game 6, If 3-2 chance of victory 49%, Cavs 119-116
If 2-3 chance of victory 43%, Cavs 112-109

Game 7, 53% chance of victory 119-114

 

[B Mac]

If we win this series the Boston series won't start until roughly three weeks from now. Possibly time to get Wade ready if his knee is OK, which they say it is, structurally at least.

Unfortunately, there's no guarantee the mental part of that equation will be ready to go.

 

[Pierre Pan]

How Cavs can benefit from a playoff strategy vs. Magic that devastated them against Knicks — Jimmy Watkins — cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Orlando Magic have found a crack in the Cavs’ defense, and it’s time to panic. Franz Wagner, or Jonathan Isaac, or Markelle Fultz is wide open — couldn’t contest their shot if somebody threw a shoe — and fans are all yelling the same thing at their televisions.

apple.news

CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Orlando Magic have found a crack in the Cavs’ defense, and it’s time to panic. Franz Wagner, or Jonathan Isaac, or Markelle Fultz is wide open — couldn’t contest their shot if somebody threw a shoe — and fans are all yelling the same thing at their televisions.

Whose man is that?!

Trick question, and the answers run the gambit. Could be Darius Garland’s assignment, could be Evan Mobley’s. But as long as the Orlando player is behind the 3-point line, it doesn’t matter. Cleveland’s best defense against the open shooter might be his internal dialogue.

Shoot or pass? Brick an open look or balk at one? These are the questions Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff can plant into opposing players’ minds during the first-round playoff series against Orlando. Five of the Magic’s top-eight minute-earners — Fultz, Franz Wagner, Mo Wagner Cole Anthony, and Paolo Banchero — shoot worse than 34% from 3-point range. One more rotation piece — defensive stopper Jonathan Isaac — attempts fewer than two 3-pointers per game. So when those players take the floor, Cleveland can take stress off its defense with a simple defensive strategy:

Let ‘em shoot.

Think it won’t work? Think back to last spring, if your heart will allow you, to the first-round loss to the Knicks. The Cavs posted an offensive rating (101.9) that ranked 16th out of 16 playoff teams during that five-game series, in part because Donovan Mitchell played below his standard. But Mitchell played below his standard in part because New York could clog the lane with against Cleveland’s shooting-challenged lineups.

Pick any player from Cleveland’s playoff rotation last season, and consider whether they could be trusted to make an open jump shot. Mobley? Too early in his development. Jarrett Allen? Too outside of his comfort zone. Isaac Okoro? Cedi Osman? Both shot 31% or worse from 3 in the series. And besides Darius Garland (38.7%) and Caris LeVert (36.1%), every other Cavalier either shot below 30% or refused to shoot more often than Okoro (13 attempts).

So the Knicks sagged off, stacked defenders in the paint. Garland and Mitchell found few clean driving lanes. Okoro found so little confidence after shooting 0 for 4 from 3 during Game 1 that Bickerstaff played him just 13 minutes per game from that point forward. Put another way, New York neutralized Cleveland’s best scorers and its best perimeter defender by nudging several toward their simple defensive strategy:

Let’ em shoot.

Now the Cavs have stocked up on shooters, however, and they have a chance to flip their fortunes against Orlando. Wagner, who shoots 28.1% from 3 this season, is Orlando’s second-best player. Isaac, who shoots 34.1% for his career and only attempts 1.9 3s per game this year, is the Magic’s best defender, if not the best defensive player in the series. And Fultz (27.4% carer 3-point shooter) and Anthony (33.8% shooter this year) are Orlando’s best pair of bench creators.

But what role can they realistically play if they can’t make shots? How much can Isaac play, let alone disrupt Cleveland’s offense, if he doesn’t take shots at the other end? And how much offensive load can Banchero (33.9% from 3) carry without a reliable jump shot or reliable shooting around him, particularly if Orlando’s shooting woes help Mobley and/or Allen stand under the rim for every Banchero drive?

Bickerstaff should find out, just like Thibodeau before him. He should let viewers think the Magic have found a crack in the Cavs’ defense and should leave somebody is wide open. Because soon enough, fans will realize the crack was opened on purpose, and the shooter is open for reason. The only reason to panic exists in Orlando shooters’ heads, where the let-’em-shoot calculus is hurting their confidence and causing them to wonder:

Where is my defender?

 

[Pierre Pan]

More pre-Series analysis from the Fear the Sword crew:

How the Cavaliers can apply last year’s lessons to the Magic series — Fear The Sword

Cavs have a chance to prove they have grown.

apple.news

A loss ain’t a loss, it’s a lesson. For the Cleveland Cavaliers, a series against the Orlando Magic is a chance to prove that last season’s beatdown was more than just that. It’s time to find out if they truly learned anything from the New York Knicks.

Last season’s collapse can be summarized by three factors. First, how the Knicks trapped Donovan Mitchell and forced other Cavaliers to make plays. Second, how New York dared Darius Garland to beat their drop coverage. And lastly, losing the rebounding battle.

The Cavaliers spent all summer telling us they have addressed those issues. Orlando is built to test that theory by exploiting all of the same flaws New York did.

Trapping Donovan Mitchell

New York emphasized limiting Mitchell’s scoring opportunities last April. This meant blitzing pick-and-rolls and forcing Donny to get rid of the ball. Ideally, this creates an advantage for the offense as a quick pass will leave the defense at a 3-on-4 disadvantage. But the Cavaliers couldn’t capitalize on these scenarios for various reasons.

For starters, Mitchell was hesitant to give up the rock. He waited too long to pass out of those traps and often turned it over by pressing the issue.

Worse, Cleveland was unable to convert whenever Mitchell did pass the ball. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, in particular, had a hard time generating offense in the short roll.

This is why the Cavaliers added Max Strus in the offseason. Strus provides another layer to Cleveland’s offense. He can pass, dribble or shoot — and this makes him capable of punishing teams who blitz Mitchell.

Darius Garland in drop coverage

It’s no secret how teams have decided to defend Garland at this stage. The big is going to drop and dare Garland to beat them in the lane. So far, the results have been a mixed bag.

Garland is a lethal operator in pick-and-roll when he can get downhill and throw a dime to his bigs. Finishing at the rim, however, is a different story for Garland. He’s plummeted from above-average to near league-worst in the restricted area since his jaw injury.

Fortunately, Garland has proven he is capable of going on a heater. He torched Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves for 34 points earlier in the season — converting numerous floaters in the lane. Of course, shooting more three-pointers is always an option, as well. Garland finished the regular season as the fifth-most accurate pull-up shooter.

Last season, New York escaped without Garland burning their drop coverage for more than one game. Orlando will likely attempt to replicate that result. It’s on Garland to change that.

Controlling the glass

No one needs to be reminded of New York’s dominance on the glass. While the Magic are not as dominant — they are a threat to pound the boards.

Orlando finished the regular season seventh in offensive rebounding percentage and secondin defensive rebounding percentage. Their raw rebounding numbers are much lower, placing 20th in total rebounds per 100 possessions. Still, this is a sizeable team with the ability to win a rebounding battle.

The Cavs have not done as much to address this issue. Sure, Allen and Mobley can simply be better on the boards but the lack of size around them has not improved. This will be exasperated if Dean Wade is unavailable throughout the first round

However, Cleveland has better backup options than a year ago. Tristan Thompson and Marcus Morris are more capable rebounders than Robin Lopez and Danny Green, for whatever that’s worth.

New York ranked third in second-chance points last season. This year, Orlando placed 11th. The Cavaliers will have a slightly easier challenge but nothing they can overlook. The rebounding battle will be key.

 

[bushwick_bill]

 

[Peacedog]

I mean, it's probably not a big deal. But you play the entire season (and career) without a headband, and now you don one (pun intended) right before the playoffs? Or is he planning to get a trim before Saturday?

 

[bushwick_bill]

 

[Futuredome]

Morris was signed because of the knee injury. Will JB use him???

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I thought I would look at the four games the Cavs played against the Magic this year to see if there are any clues for the playoffs.

Dec. 6 @ Cleveland, Cavs win 121-111

Out for Cavs: LeVert
Out for Magic: Carter, Fultz

Carter is their starting center and Fultz their backup point guard. Their starting point guard, Jalen Suggs, played just 9 minutes before being injured.

This was the Cavs’ most complete team for any of the four games and the only one with all five starters on the court. They won because the Magic made only 2 of 23 three-point attempts. The Magic are poor 3-point shooters, but not this bad. Despite missing two starters they would have won with normal 3-point shooting. Even sub-normal, say 7-for-21, would have been good enough.

The Cavs were 14-for-34 on 3’s, or 41%. The Cavs 36-point advantage on 3’s was the reason they won. This is not a good comparison game for the playoffs because I don’t think the Magic will go 2-for-23 from deep again.

2. Dec. 11 @ Orlando. Magic wins 104-94

Out for Cavs: Mobley, LeVert
Out for Magic: Carter, Fultz

Five days later with Mobley out and the game in Orlando, the Cavs score 28 fewer points and lose, despite holding the Magic to just 104 points. This time the Cavs took 40 shots from deep and missed 31. The Magic weren’t much better, going 7-for-26.

The Cavs just needed 105 points to win but shot 35% overall and 22.5% on 3’s. Just a very bad shooting night for the Cavs, probably their worst of the year.

Not a good comparison game because the Cavs will have Mobley and LeVert and I can’t see them shooting this badly again. Well, maybe for one game they might.

3. Jan. 22 @ Orlando, Cavs win 126-99

Out for Cavs: Garland, Mobley, LeVert
Out for Magic: Harris, Isaac

Neither team was at full strength but the Cavs shot the lights out, hitting 56% overall and 53% on 3’s. Merrill was 8-for-13 on 3’s and Wade was 3-for-3. The Cavs forced 15 turnovers and committed only 9.

This is not a good comparison game for the playoffs because Merrill and Wade probably won’t play at all, much less hit 11 three-pointers. And the Cavs will have Garland, Mobley, and LeVert while the Magic will have Harris and Isaac. Also, the Magic were playing on the second night of a back-to-back.

4. Feb. 22 @ Cleveland, Magic wins 116-109

Out for Cavs: Mitchell
Out for Magic: Fultz

Close game but the Cavs lost due to committing 17 turnovers along with the Magic going 14-for-25 on 3’s. Orlando ranks 25th in 3-point accuracy so this was way outside their normal range just like going 2-for-23 in the first game.

Not a good comparison game because we didn’t have Donovan and they had a once-in-a-season night shooting 3’s.

None of these games are good comparisons for the playoffs due to injuries to both teams and some flukey shooting by both teams. In none of these games did both teams have their complete starting lineups on the floor in the same game like they will have for this series.

But there are a couple of takeways.

One, three-point shooting is huge. Orlando lost game 1 because they went 2-for-23 on 3’s and won game 4 because they went 14-for-25. Neither is likely to happen again. The Cavs lost game 2 by 10 points because they missed 31 shots from distance and won game 3 when they shot 53% from deep.

All four games were decided by one team either shooting over 50% or under 25% on 3’s. The team that had the higher shooting percentage on 3’s won all four games.

This makes sense because both teams are pretty equal up front. I think it’s very possible that Mobley/Allen/Niang/TT versus Carter/Banchero/Wagner/Wagner/Isaac will be a draw and the 3-point shooting will decide the winner, like it did in all four regular season games.

Two, the benches are important. In the Magic’s 116-109 win in Cleveland their bench outscored the Cavs’ bench 63-24. Despite the Magic shooting 56% on 3’s the Cavs lost by only 7 and could have won if not for 17 turnovers and their bench getting badly outplayed.

After Merrill lit them up in January by hitting eight 3’s, the Magic adjusted. In February he only got 2 shots off in 12 minutes as they hounded him off the 3-point line. I don't think he'll be a factor in this series. He burned the Magic once and they are well aware of what he can do if he has space, which he won't have.

Magic bench players Joe Ingles, Mo Wagner, and Jonathan Isaac were +23, +19 and +17 that game while Niang was -20 and Merrill and Levert were -10.

In the other Cavs’ loss their bench was outscored 38-17 and the Cavs lost by 10. In their big win the Cavs bench put up 60 points to 41 for the Magic and in the 10-point win the Cavs’ bench was outscored 38-19 but Mitchell and Garland combined for 61 with Fultz out and Suggs limited to 9 minutes.

With Suggs and Fultz back I don’t expect Garland and Mitchell to combine for 60 points so the Cavs’ bench needs to hold serve and that will be a tough assignment as they were badly outscored by the Magic bench in three of the four games.

One thing in the Cavs’ favor is benches become less important in the playoffs as starters play more minutes. There are either one or two days off between each game. The Magic have the better bench, especially with Wade out, but that might not be as big of an advantage as it was in the regular season when the Magic’s bench outscored the Cavs’ bench by 60 points in the two Magic wins.

 

[MattyIce8]

There are a ton of tickets available for the game. What happened to Cleveland as a sports town? It’s pretty pathetic

 

[David.]

There are a ton of tickets available for the game. What happened to Cleveland as a sports town? It’s pretty pathetic

Not spending a dime until jb is gone personally. I spent a lot of money watching obnoxiously bad basketball this year.

Hope the cavs figure it out