Excellent article:
After last year's first-round flameout, Cleveland's future is in flux amidst Donovan Mitchell trade rumors
www.givemesport.com
The
Donovan Mitchell era with the
Cleveland Cavaliers has been a weird one. It has both been hugely successful but also disjointed and uncertain. Over the two regular seasons he has spent with the Cavaliers, Cleveland has averaged 50 wins and has secured the fourth seed in the East each time, but they flamed out badly in five games against the
New York Knicks in last year's first round.
After an odd season full of injuries, where they experienced a stretch as the best team in the league but also a rocky end to the year, Cleveland is now faced with a must-win first-round series against the
Orlando Magic.
With Mitchell's public indifference towards a contract extension in Cleveland, off-season trade rumors have intensified.
With Mitchell having a player option for the 2025-26 season, next year is the last that Cleveland has him under team control. This means the Cavaliers should secure a long-term extension with Mitchell this off-season or begin to listen to trade offers. They could bring him back to camp for the 2025 season, but Cleveland would risk losing him for nothing in free agency.
The Cavaliers must prove Mitchell is worth keeping around by going on a deep playoff run this spring, or Cleveland will start asking themselves whether the Garland/Mitchell backcourt is destined for success. Additionally, Mitchell seems all but gone from Ohio if given the chance, and an early postseason exit would seal the deal.
From a roster-building perspective, it seems unlikely that a team maximizes their playoff potential by pairing two small, shot-creating guards together. The issues the pairing creates in the playoffs are twofold: firstly, playoff defense is all about minimizing the number of exploitable defenders on the floor, and this backcourt gives opponents two entry points to attack in mismatches. Secondly, each player is at their best when they have the ball in their hands, not splitting time off the ball. This dynamic has hurt the development of Garland in particular as second fiddle.
This phenomenon is clear in the lineup data as well. Of Cleveland's seven best lineup combinations (min. at least 50 minutes played), only one of them has Mitchell and Garland on the floor, despite being the two players with the most minutes played on the team.
Cavaliers' Best Lineups
Lineup. Minutes Played. NRTG
Mitchell/Allen/LeVert/Strus/Wade 55. +34.8
Garland/Mobley/LeVert/Niang/Okoro 118. +23.1
Mitchell/Allen/LeVert/Niang/Okoro 57. +22.8
Mitchell/Garland/Allen/Strus/Wade 55. +19.8
Mitchell/Wade/Allen/Strus/Okoro 232. +19.6
Garland/Mobley/Allen/Strus/Okoro 62. +8.2
Mitchell/Allen/LeVert/Strus/Okoro 94. +1.5
Cleveland's healthy starting five is extremely talented and appears to be one of the better lineups in the NBA. However, they have performed very average on the floor and had no answers for New York in their first-round loss last year. Adding Max Strus as a knockdown shooter who is a capable defender was supposed to solve their biggest structural issue against the Knicks: they had players who could defend and players who could shoot, but none who could do both.
The lineup of Mitchell, Garland, Strus, Mobley, and Allen is Cleveland's most-played group by a significant margin, (368 minutes played) and they have been extremely mediocre (+1.4 NRTG). This set of five players has multiple debilitating structural issues, especially come playoff time.
| Cavaliers Starting Five | | | |
|---|
| Lineup | ORTG | DRTG | NRTG |
| Mitchell/Garland/Strus/Mobley/Allen | 112.7 | 111.3 | +1.4 |
The aforementioned defensive weakness of the Mitchell/Garland backcourt makes Mobley and Allen absolutely essential for rim protection, as opposing stars can easily target one of the guards and draw double teams that get the defense in rotation. Unfortunately for Cleveland, having two non-shooting bigs on the floor allows the opponent to provide tons of help in the paint and guard Mitchell or Garland with much more attention.
Their offense and defense with this lineup have been league-average, whereas subbing one of the guards and
one of the bigs for Okoro, Wade, Niang, or LeVert has at least given them an advantage on one side of the ball. Most of Cleveland's best lineups feature one star guard and only one of Mobley or Allen
Donovan Mitchell has said recently that he wants to reach the Conference Finals for the first time in his career and ultimately play in the NBA Finals. As a 50-win team for the past two seasons, Cleveland should expect nothing less than a deep playoff run but may be headed for massive changes upon an early exit.
The Cavaliers are significant favorites against Orlando and have home-court advantage, but the mighty
Boston Celtics are waiting in the second round. Unless the Celtics suffer a shocking upset at the hands of the
Miami Heat or
Chicago Bulls, Cleveland should be going home short of the Conference Finals again.
| Cavaliers' Mediocrity | | |
|---|
| Category | Stat | League Rank |
| NRTG | +2.5 | 12th |
| ORTG | 114.7 | 16th |
| DRTG | 112.2 | 7th |
| REB% | 50.1% | 15th |
If Cleveland is outclassed by Boston or slips against Orlando, Cavs fans can expect a roster transformation going into next season. At a minimum, the Cavaliers should trade one of their guards and give the keys to the other, while bringing in a defensive-minded shooting guard who can play off the ball. This would likely be Darius Garland, as
Mitchell has made it clear he wishes to be elsewhere. The additional assets and money opened up from Mitchell would allow Cleveland to fill out their rotation with better-fitting players.
Additionally, one of Mobley or Allen could be on their way out upon a playoff flameout. In the modern NBA, it is hard to score efficiently in the postseason when teams can gameplan against two non-shooting big men who ruin the floor spacing. It is simply too difficult for Mitchell or Garland to play 3-on-5 basketball against rim protectors in the paint.
If the Cavaliers fail to stun the world with a deep playoff run, this could be their last chance with this group.
