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2023-2024 Playoffs: March Toward _______?

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Cavs season ends

  • In the first round

    Votes: 22 28.2%

  • In the second round

    Votes: 42 53.8%

  • In the Eastern conference finals

    Votes: 7 9.0%

  • In the NBA finals

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • With Parade #2

    Votes: 7 9.0%
  • Total voters
    78
  • Poll closed .
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The playoffs are upon us. So is judgment day.

For the Cavs, this team’s pathway is directly correlated to how the playoffs turn out. Disappoint again, and change could be at the doorstep. Exceed expectations, and it could mean Cleveland keeps its superstar.

Standing in the Cavs way first is the Orlando Magic.

The teams split the season series 2-2. Over the last two seasons in games where Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland played the Cavs are 3-1.

Wendell Carter Jr played in two of the four games this season. Jonathan Isaac played in two.

Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland played in three games. Evan Mobley played in two games and Caris LeVert in one. Of course, Dean Wade played in all four matchups.

The Cavs had their full starting lineup once in four games against the Magic, they won by 10.

So, while the Cavs and Magic have played, the rosters have been disjointed, and the matchups a bit different each time.

In a seven-game series, teams become familiar with each other quickly. Adjustments will need to be made if either team wants to win four games. Talent will get you far but coaching and adaptations will get you farther.

If the Cavs want to win four games, here is one thing to watch for each win they need.

How will Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland attack the pick-and-roll on offense?

The Magic deploy a lot of drop coverage – instead of the big hedging or pushing up on guards coming off the pick-and-roll, the Magic have their big sink back further into the paint. Rudy Gobert has made this coverage famous due to his length and paint protection but inability to consistently defend laterally on the perimeter.

If your team has a ball-handler willing to let it fly coming down hill off picks, or able to hold the drop big long enough while keeping the trailing defender on their hip they can cause havoc by vertical spacing with their rolling big or finding shooters on the perimeter.

The Cavs have done both well against the Magic.

Mitchell is averaging his fifth highest assist total per game against the Magic. Garland is averaging 26.7 PPG against the Magic – third highest of any opponent this season.

You’ll see Mitchell let it fly here. Or you’ll see Garland get into the paint and hit one of his patented floaters.

The Cavs are at their best when Mitchell and Garland are aggressive and attacking. While Garland’s splits aren’t too different in wins and losses this year, Mitchell is averaging 2.6 points more in wins and almost slashing 50/40/90.

The NBA is a copycat league, and there’s a good chance the Magic see what trouble blitzing Cavs ball-handlers has caused. Garland has a penchant for trying to dribble out of trouble or waiting too late to pass which leads to turnovers. While the Magic may not switch up their entire strategy, we may see it more than they previously shown.

Mitchell has shown the ability to make blitzers pay but how well will he be able to do that with his injury?


Can the Cavs big men handle the Paolo Banchero switch?

While the Magic were primarily in drop coverage with the Cavs, the Cavs were in different coverages against the Magic but were wholly comfortable allowing their big, mainly Jarrett Allen, to switch onto Banchero.

With Allen and the Cavs, this strategy is understandable. Allen and Tristan Thompson move well enough laterally to stay in front on most wings and has length to challenge Banchero’s jumpers.

But Banchero is a top-25 scorer this year and got to the 7 times per game. There’s only so much Allen or Thompson can be expected to do for so long on switches.

So, JB Bickerstaff has shown some different looks on the Banchero pick-and-rolls. They’ve blitzed him on one or two occasions. Both led to turnovers.

The Knicks were aggressive in blitzing Garland pick-and-rolls last year – they got the ball out of his hands, forced others to make plays, and created chaos will doing it. Whether Bickerstaff decides to be this aggressive more regularly may be based on does he want to take the fight to Banchero or wait and see how Banchero brings the fight from the tip.


How well will Tristan Thompson and Georges Niang offset the loss of Dean Wade?

Wade hasn’t been ruled out for the series, but he looks doubtful for game one and it would be a surprise if he plays. It’s a shame because he’s been one of the best Cavs perimeter defenders this year and primarily does well on big wings aka Banchero and Wagner. He’s also connecting on three-pointers at a career high clip (39.1%). That skill set is hard to replace.

Mobley will likely start on Banchero which is a key within itself. If the Cavs want to roll with a two-big lineup and get out of the East, it means Mobley will have to deal with Banchero, Tatum and Giannis. His defense title will have to be earned.

But when Mobley is on the bench, the Cavs would usually have Wade to turn to. Now, they’ll have to go through Max Strus and Isaac Okoro with doses of Marcus Morris Sr and Tristan Thompson.

Surprisingly in games this year, Thompson has fared better than expected. Banchero’s skill set of agility, length and strength requires matching it and Thompson may be one of the few on the Cavs roster who can do it.

The latest reports have Bickerstaff deciding between Thompson and Sam Merrill as the last players in the playoff rotation, but it may come down to situation and how well the Cavs are defending Banchero throughout the game.

On the other end, the Cavs will need to replace Wade’s consistency in stretching defenses and it’ll come down to Niang. In games when Niang has a positive plus-minus, the Cavs are 34-6. In wins, Niang is shooting 40% from 3P; in losses Niang is shooting 33.6%.

As scary as it may be, the Cavs go further down the road with the G-Wagon is in drive as opposed to stalling out.


There’s going to be open looks, will the Cavs role players convert?

This was the story one year ago, and why Koby Altman brought in Strus and Niang in free agency. Tom Thibodeau challenged the Cavs role players to make shots, and Thibs won.

This year will likely be no different. The Magic may not blitz, and cover pick-and-rolls the same, but the Cavs will still need their role players to step up.

Outside of Mitchell and Garland, the Cavs role players were 32.4% on 3’s (25-77) in their playoff series against the Knicks. In wins this year against the Magic, Cavs role players shot 50% on 3’s (25-50). In loses this year against the Magic, Cavs role players shot 28.9% on 3’s (11-38). As much as the Cavs go as Mitchell and Garland go, they’re also only able to do as much as their shooters can give them relief.

Luckily Merrill may be healthy. With a healthy Merrill, the Cavs will also have Niang, a renewed Okoro, Morris and the ever-mercurial LeVert to bring off the bench. The Cavs should have enough shooting this year, but the playoffs are a different beast.

The Magic are really good at limiting three-point attempts – they rank 9th best in frequency of three-point shot attempts amongst their defensive shot profile. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 7th in the NBA with 39% of their shots being three-point attempts. However, with the Cavs starters, that number drops to 28th at 32.2% of their shot attempts. So, a battle to watch with strength on strength but also if the Cavs starters can shoot enough 3’s to keep the Magic’s defense off balance.

Other notes

The Cavs offensive rating is 4 points higher against the Magic, while the Cavs defensive rating 1.2 points worse. Overall, the Cavs 3.1 points better against the Magic than throughout the year.

Interestingly enough, the Cavs have a +19.2 net rating in the first half versus the Magic while having a second half net rating of -8.5 – quite the dichotomy.

While the Cavs points per game is nearly identical on the season compared to games against the Magic, the Cavs FG%, 3P%, FTA and turnovers are all higher while their assists and pace are lower when compared on the year.

Overall, expect a slower game. Both the Cavs own fast break points and fast break points allowed are significantly lower when facing the Magic.

In games the Cavs won, they made 20 and 14 three-pointers; in games they lost they only made 9 and 10 three-pointers.

The Cavs second best net rating of 2-man lineups against the Magic with at least 30 minutes: Allen + Mobley (+35.)

Their best 3-man lineup against the Magic with at least 20 minutes played: Allen + Mobley + Strus (+40.3).
 

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And “gone fishing’” for the eliminated teams. Dangling at the end of a fishing pole is Trae Young with a sign over him “Trae’d Bait” .
 
Sad to say but I expect to see Orlando play harder than us. Suggs could do what Josh Hart does to us and I won’t be surprised. Have to be ready for Mo Wagner’s “Tyler Hansbroughness.”
 
I initially said Mobley but Garland is the key to the series. Suggs can't guard both Donovan and Garland at the same time. I would adjust to making Donovan the primary and move Garland over to moving off-ball as much as possible.

Run a shit ton of pick and rolls, single drags with Allen and, for the love of god, double drags with Donovan, Garland and Allen.
 
Damage said:
I initially said Mobley but Garland is the key to the series. Suggs can't guard both Donovan and Garland at the same time. I would adjust to making Donovan the primary and move Garland over to moving off-ball as much as possible.

Run a shit ton of pick and rolls, single drags with Allen and, for the love of god, double drags with Donovan, Garland and Allen.
Click to expand...


I’m with you. They’ve had an entire weeks worth of practice, which is plenty of time to work on new wrinkles to put in the offense.

If they come out with DG as the primary initiator and he is back to his walk it up and dribble the air out of the ball style, I’ll lose it.
 
B Mac said:
I’m with you. They’ve had an entire weeks worth of practice, which is plenty of time to work on new wrinkles to put in the offense.

If they come out with DG as the primary initiator and he is back to his walk it up and dribble the air out of the ball style, I’ll lose it.
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#metoo

As @Smooth pointed out, Isaac is going to do a ton of drop on Donovan/Allen so the double screens, ghost screens and euro screens with DM/DG and Allen are going to be critical

EDIT: Ghost screens can and should be used with many players, especially baseline (Okoro, Strus, LeVert)
 
Damage said:
#metoo

As @Smooth pointed out, Isaac is going to do a ton of drop on Donovan/Allen so the double screens, ghost screens and euro screens with DM/DG and Allen are going to be critical

EDIT: Ghost screens can and should be used with many players, especially baseline (Okoro, Strus, LeVert)
Click to expand...
Talked a little more about that on X:

 
JBB isn't an idiot.
Smooth said:
Talked a little more about that on X:

Click to expand...
My only retort is Isaac has avg about 16 MPG. In april, he's avg about 19 MPG, so I wonder if he's conditioned enough to play significant minutes.
 
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