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2023-24 Season | Playoff series #1 | Cavaliers vs. Magic |

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Here's a fun update to my predictions. We won the first game, so our chance of winning the series is now:

Cavs win: 67.56%
Magic win: 32.78%

We eliminated the chance the Magic would sweep us.

All the other predictions updated too. I'm keeping the individual game prediction percentages the same.

Winning game 2: Cavs 55% chance. I think it's really higher now, but I'll stick with what I said before the series.

Game 3: 51% if 2-0
48% if 1-1

Game 4: 54% if 3-0
50% if 2-1
45% if 1-2

Cavs chance of winning 4-0 = 15.15%

85% chance we'll play 5 games

Game 5: 56% if 3-1
52% if 2-2
48% if 1-3

Cavs chance of winning 4-1= 20.82%
Magic chance of winning 4-1 = 6.69%

57.34% chance of going to 6 games.

Game 6: Cavs chance is 49% if 3-2, 43% if 2-3
Cavs 16.88% chance of winning 4-2
Magic 13.04% chance of winning 4-2

That the series ends in 7 games, given our game 1 victory:
27.76% chance of going to game 7.

Cavs' chance of winning game 7 is 53% (from my original prediction.
Cavs win in 7 14.71%
Magic win in 7 13.05%
 
Okay, we're 2-0. Let's crank the prediction numbers for the rest of the series. I'm not changing any game prediction, merely filling in our victories.

Our next game:
If 2-0, chance of victory 51% Cavs 115-110

Game 4:
Game 4: If 2-1, chance of victory 50% Cavs 113-106
If 3-0, chance of victory 54% Cavs 119-106
Chance of sweeping=27.54%

Chance of going to 5 games:
47.96%

Game 5:
If 2-2, chance of victory 52%, Cavs 113-107
Game 5, If 3-1, chance of victory 56%, Cavs 120-111
Chance of going to 6 games: 21.1%

Game 6, If 3-2 chance of victory 49%, Cavs 119-116
If 2-3 chance of victory 43%, Cavs 112-109
Chance of winning in 6: 10.34%

Game 7:
Game 7, 53% chance of victory 119-114
Chance of winning in 7:
5.82%

Overall chance of Cavs winning the series:
70.55%

I like our chances!
 
So far the series is exactly as predicted - a low-scoring, defense oriented rock fight. One surprise - the Cavs lead in rebounding 102-82 and offensive rebounds 25-22.

The Cavs are shooing 29% from deep and the Magic 23.6%. Both teams are laying bricks on 3's. If either team can start hitting 35% they'll most likely win easily.
 
Allen had 16 pts and 18 rebounds for a +10 in the first game and 16 pts, 20 rebounds, and +12 in the second. Talk about consistency!

Same for Mobley; 16 pts, 11rebounds in the first game for a +5 and 17 pts, 7 rebounds in the second for a +11.

Mitchell is a +10 in both games which the Cavs won by 14 and 10.

Banchero has played 82 out of a possible 96 minutes and is a -15. Franz Wagner is -12 in 78 minutes. Starting center Jonathan Isaac is -23 in 49 minutes.

Their starting guards did better tonight, going 7-for-15 for 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists in 53 minutes. But their bench guards of Fultz and Anthony had 1 point in 23 minutes. Ingles has 3 points in 29 minutes.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
Allen had 16 pts and 18 rebounds for a +10 in the first game and 16 pts, 20 rebounds, and +12 in the second. Talk about consistency!

Same for Mobley; 16 pts, 11rebounds in the first game for a +5 and 17 pts, 7 rebounds in the second for a +11.

Mitchell is a +10 in both games which the Cavs won by 14 and 10.

Banchero has played 82 out of a possible 96 minutes and is a -15. Franz Wagner is -12 in 78 minutes. Starting center Jonathan Isaac is -23 in 49 minutes.

Their starting guards did better tonight, going 7-for-15 for 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists in 53 minutes. But their bench guards of Fultz and Anthony had 1 point in 23 minutes. Ingles has 3 points in 29 minutes.
Click to expand...
Anthony is the guy who can maybe get hot at home and swing a game with his scoring, but he’s also all kinds of out of sorts right now. All of his shots are prayer fadeaways and I remember him passing up an open 3.
 
Talking JBB--
  • We talk a lot about player growth – Garland, Allen, and Mobley. But coaching growth may get this team farther. After the run, JB Bickerstaff quickly adjusted. One by one Allen, Mitchell and Max Strus reentered the game – Isaac Okoro was the lone bench player on the court due to Garland foul trouble. The Cavs responded with a 15-3 run.
  • Not saying it’s directly correlated but also not saying it isn’t. With Georges Niang struggling, he only played 2:41 second quarter minutes. Bickerstaff instead elected to go with Okoro and Mobley as the primary defenders on Banchero during his 7+ minutes. In that time, Banchero had 0 points and 1 FGA. It was Banchero’s only scoreless quarter.
  • The Cavs defensive strategy so far has paid off: Sink on any dribble penetration and hope to rotate/contest just good enough to force misses. The Cavs have also been content to let Jonathan Isaac just jack corner 3’s left and right. The in the third quarter alone that strategy worked as Isaac went 1-4 on 3P.
  • Really liking Bickerstaff’s adjustments, part 2: Seeing Niang struggle all game, Bickerstaff instead went small with Okoro and Strus playing the forward spots. Additionally, seeing the Cavs again struggle with Wagner’s physicality, went to Allen over Mobley quickly into the fourth quarter.
  • More liking Bickerstaff: Recognizing the flow and feel of the game (4 missed 3P, one turnover and Magic going on 4-0 run), he immediately went back to Mitchell early into the fourth quarter to help settle the game. The Magic did go on a 9-0 run after this, but the thought was there.
 
The Magic are the only team the Cavs could sweep. The Celtics are gonna whip this team
 
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