2023 Guardians Offseason Thread!

[Criznit]

Just for shiz and giggles -

Myles Straw - 4 total GIDPs
Man on 1st. 94PA 2GIDP - one every 47.0 PAs - that's really good.

.256​

.272​

.300​

.572​

Men on 1st-2nd. 42PA 2GIDP - one every 21 PAs - that's really good but otherwise...yikes.

.105​

.191​

.132​

.322​

Men on 1st and 3rd. 25PA 0GIDP

.174​

.200​

.217​

.417​

Bases Loaded.13PA 0GIDP

.333​

.308​

.333​

.641​

Amed Rosario - 19 total GIDPs

Man on 1st. 145PA 15GIDP one every 9.6 PAs - that's stinky. But - he smacked the ball well otherwise.

.331​

.345​

.458​

.803​

Men on 1st and 2nd. 47 PA 4GIDP one every 11 PAs.

.244​

.277​

.400​

.677​

Men on 1st and 3 21PA 0GIDP - Crushed it.

.316​

.333​

.526​

.860​

Loaded 9PA 0GIDP

.333​

.333​

.333​

.667​

 

[CDAV45]

I’m the second smartest poster on this board. Everyone else is tied for first.

Yeah well I multiplied 0 by 2 and came up with 1 so.........

 

[Kiddo]

Myles Straw starts the season in CF, with Brennan being a 4th OF... Brennan is going to play almost everyday, but not always in a starting role...

If Straw struggles again with the bat and Brennan is hitting, Straw will lose playing time, while Brennan gets more and the roles could be reversed.

@CDAV45 if Straw starts hitting again like he first did in Cleveland, you will see that with his defense, he is the top CF in baseball... If he doesn't, he rides the bench. He's got spring til Juneish to show his bat and he's one of the few players I will ever tell to... Pull the dang ball and once in awhile, try to pull a HR

He hits more lazy fly balls to shallow center and right than any other player I’ve ever seen. He’s such a weak hitter.

 

[KluberSociety]

I see Brennan having more chance of taking away ABs from OGonz... but not really a super high chance of that happening unless he scuffles a lot. I personally like Brennan a lot more in RF anyway but he's sort of squeezed out of a position with Bell taking over at DH and no place to put OGonz. If all goes well though then we will have 4 good OFs and that's not a bad thing, then potentially Valera knocking at the door. I still have hopes for Benson too. Not really sure why OF is still seen as a weakness by anyone.

 

[CDAV45]

I see Brennan having more chance of taking away ABs from OGonz... but not really a super high chance of that happening unless he scuffles a lot. I personally like Brennan a lot more in RF anyway but he's sort of squeezed out of a position with Bell taking over at DH and no place to put OGonz. If all goes well though then we will have 4 good OFs and that's not a bad thing, then potentially Valera knocking at the door. I still have hopes for Benson too. Not really sure why OF is still seen as a weakness by anyone.

OGon would have to lose his shit to be taken out of the lineup IMO. Until Bell was signed he was the only source of RH power this team had. I believe his performance demands that he be out there.

I don't know why you would like Brennan in RF more? He's a better CFer than he is a corner OFer. He can play all 3 well, but he is a CFer.

Hard to say how it will all shakeout. I am confident in saying that Kwan is our LFer and OGon is usually our RFer. Tito did talk to Josh Naylor about playing some RF again so make of that what you will. I have no idea what that means in terms of playing time. So as of right now the OF consists of Kwan, Straw, OGon, Brennan, J. Naylor and Benson. It feels kinda piecemealed to me. Kwan is a LFer that hits like a CFer. Straw is a CFer that doesn't hit. OGon is a hitter put in the OF, Brennan is lost in the shuffle and Benson has too much swing and miss up to this point. If Naylor is part of the mix he pretty much falls into the same category as OGon. It ain't perfect, but whatever works right?

 

[CATS44]

When both Brennan and Benson played in Cleveland in the same outfield last season, which one played in center?

******************

We all know the definition of insanity.

There is a slight variation that fits this forum....

Watching prospects with similar profiles fail over and over again, and yet expecting something different from the next prospect with a similar profile.

Some of the hyping of Arias, and now Benson, is nearly word for word earlier hyping of Zimmer, Chang, Daniel Johnson, and Jones. All tools and no contact make for generally poor outcomes.

************

Most posters here do not want to hear any negatives about our prospects. They hear only what they want to hear. About the only negative allowed is lack of home runs, which is a general theme...lol.

Nearly every MIF prospect has a GG in his future. Nearly every OF prospect is a plus defender in center. Nearly every starting pitching prospect with a mid 90s...or better....heater is a sure fire FOR who won't get hurt. And those kids who hammer 30 homers in cracker box minor league parks is sure to regularly hit 30 in MLB...and do it in their debut seasons.

Its fairly common orthodoxy that the biggest jump in MiLB is A+ to AA. But a much bigger jump is from AAA to MLB...although that is ignored. So Kwan and Bieber are held up as the common, when in reality they are the exceptions that make the rule.

Damn reality, full speed ahead. Nobody fails in this org.

***********

Looking at the likeliest catching trade targets, a little two year comparison...

Jansen....453 PAs....4.0 fWAR...5.3/600 PAs.

Kirk.....755 PAs...4.5 fWAR...3.8/600 PAs

Murphy...1060 PAs...8.4 fWAR...4.8/600

The question is...

Do you buy Jansen's last 450 PAs or his first 600?

If you buy the career numbers, he's been worth 3.7 fWAR per 600/PA.

 

[CDAV45]

What about a 19 yr old kid that hits 302/339/470/809 in A+, skips AA altogether and then hits 284/348/454/802 as a 21 yr old in AAA? Nevermind that he is regarded as one of the better defensive SS in the system. Should he be considered "overhyped"? Should he be written off as overhyped after missing significant time with a broken hamate bone and then struggling? I think we need more data to be honest. He could be a dud or a stud. Irregardless, the talent can't be denied.

Seemed like Brennan played a helluva lot more than Benson after he was called up. I don't even remember them being on the field together. How long had it been since Benson had an AB until that one in the playoffs?

I'll take Jansen everyday of the week if they think his minor injury issues are a thing of the past. Dude can mash and that was evident prior to last season. Dude also struggled to stay on the field and there is value in that too so it shouldn't be overlooked. For the cost, give me Jansen even with the risk. He doesn't have to catch more than 50% of the time so that should help keep him healthy.

Edited to say that I find it ironic how Zimmer is referred to frequently as an example of a failure yet was more productive than Straw who gives certain individuals boners with his stellar defense despite his lack of offensive production. Seems a little double standard to me, but what do I know?

 

[KluberSociety]

OGon would have to lose his shit to be taken out of the lineup IMO. Until Bell was signed he was the only source of RH power this team had. I believe his performance demands that he be out there.

I don't know why you would like Brennan in RF more? He's a better CFer than he is a corner OFer. He can play all 3 well, but he is a CFer.

Hard to say how it will all shakeout. I am confident in saying that Kwan is our LFer and OGon is usually our RFer. Tito did talk to Josh Naylor about playing some RF again so make of that what you will. I have no idea what that means in terms of playing time. So as of right now the OF consists of Kwan, Straw, OGon, Brennan, J. Naylor and Benson. It feels kinda piecemealed to me. Kwan is a LFer that hits like a CFer. Straw is a CFer that doesn't hit. OGon is a hitter put in the OF, Brennan is lost in the shuffle and Benson has too much swing and miss up to this point. If Naylor is part of the mix he pretty much falls into the same category as OGon. It ain't perfect, but whatever works right?

Well OGon is probably going to play against LHP no matter what but I do see a situation where he struggles and they end up doing some platoon with both he and Brennan... Alternatively you could say the same with Straw and Brennan but Straw has a longer track record so he will probably get longer to work things out especially with how he finished strongly. Another option is a sort of semi-platoon where we sometimes will give both Straw and OGon breathers against righties which will give Brennan starts and then we can PH him with OGon or put Straw in as a late inning defensive replacement where Brennan pushes OGon out of RF. Lots of options.

I think Benson probably starts 2023 in AAA, not even sure why he's being brought up much here but I do see him as a potential option in CF although I don't think his defense is that good where he will make up for a poor bat. The encouraging thing is he seems to improve as he gets acclimated to new levels and he really wasn't K-ing at a super high rate in AAA even.

 

[CDAV45]

Well OGon is probably going to play against RHP no matter what but I do see a situation where he struggles and they end up doing some platoon with both he and Brennan... Alternatively you could say the same with Straw and Brennan but Straw has a longer track record so he will probably get longer to work things out especially with how he finished strongly.

Yeah, you're probably right KS. I hope OGon doesn't regress, but it's certainly a possibility.

As far as CF, I hope Tito just lets it play out instead of just blessing Straw with the starting job. Personally, I don't think Straw has any chance of hitting like Brennan can/does, but he is elite defensively and if his bat is passable then it is what it is. I'm not trying to sell Brennan as Straw's equivalent defensively, but he's a good defensive CFer himself. It's a "sum of the parts" matter for me. We'll see what happens.

 

[KluberSociety]

Yeah, you're probably right KS. I hope OGon doesn't regress, but it's certainly a possibility.

As far as CF, I hope Tito just lets it play out instead of just blessing Straw with the starting job. Personally, I don't think Straw has any chance of hitting like Brennan can/does, but he is elite defensively and if his bat is passable then it is what it is. I'm not trying to sell Brennan as Straw's equivalent defensively, but he's a good defensive CFer himself. It's a "sum of the parts" matter for me. We'll see what happens.

I edited my post, meant to say LHP not RHP.

But yeah I think that the starting 3 is and should be set in stone, as well as the 4th OF being Brennan, but Brennan should be getting significant opportunities as well. I may come off as anti-Brennan but I really don't want to see him wither away on the bench and I hope Tito doesn't either. One easy way to accomplish this would be to just give Straw and OGon occasional breaks, and also put Brennan in as a late inning defensive replacement for OGon where he can maybe get an AB.

The way Freeman and Benson rotted on the bench last year seemed really sub-ideal and would not want to see that happen again. I'd rather have guys like Miller on the roster as benchwarmers while they can keep getting reps and staying fresh in AAA personally. But maybe Freeman at least has to be on the MLB roster as the bench piece while Miller gets moved out just because of the abundance of MIF talent.

 

[CDAV45]

I edited my post, meant to say LHP not RHP.

But yeah I think that the starting 3 is and should be set in stone, as well as the 4th OF being Brennan, but Brennan should be getting significant opportunities as well. I may come off as anti-Brennan but I really don't want to see him wither away on the bench and I hope Tito doesn't either. One easy way to accomplish this would be to just give Straw and OGon occasional breaks, and also put Brennan in as a late inning defensive replacement for OGon where he can maybe get an AB.

The way Freeman and Benson rotted on the bench last year seemed really sub-ideal and would not want to see that happen again. I'd rather have guys like Miller on the roster as benchwarmers while they can keep getting reps and staying fresh in AAA personally. But maybe Freeman at least has to be on the MLB roster as the bench piece while Miller gets moved out just because of the abundance of MIF talent.

I knew what you meant, but thanks for clarifying.

I guess I'm not sure how Brennan being the 4th OFer works. Most of the pitching hitters face is RHed. Straw and OGon have reverse splits. Tito specifically stated that he has spoken with Josh about getting some reps in RF again too and I'm not sure how to assess that because he has been terrible vs LHP.

I agree that having young players sit for long periods of time is not ideal. It sucks actually, but what are they to do? Tito has to find reps and balance the playing time of Rosario, Miller, Freeman and Arias in the IF as well as all the OFers. I expect Rosario to be dealt, Gimenez to slide over to SS and for Freeman, Miller and Arias battle it out for playing time. Should Arias win out then Gimenez can remain at 2B. If Miller or Freeman win out then they take over 2B while Andres is our SS.

We have a lot of offseason left so some of these guys might not even be a factor by opening day.

 

[Tondo]

Edited to say that I find it ironic how Zimmer is referred to frequently as an example of a failure yet was more productive than Straw who gives certain individuals boners with his stellar defense despite his lack of offensive production. Seems a little double standard to me, but what do I know?

Please stop these fake news. Zimmer never ever was better H2H in any given year vs Straw. He's been worse career and on a yearly basis.

Your bullshit "look Zimmer's best (347 BABIP driven) 2021 season was better than Straw's 2022 (261 BABIP)" is totally constructed. Zimmer has been a worse CF and hitter every fucking season they had 100+ PA

 

[KluberSociety]

I knew what you meant, but thanks for clarifying.

I guess I'm not sure how Brennan being the 4th OFer works. Most of the pitching hitters face is RHed. Straw and OGon have reverse splits. Tito specifically stated that he has spoken with Josh about getting some reps in RF again too and I'm not sure how to assess that because he has been terrible vs LHP.

I agree that having young players sit for long periods of time is not ideal. It sucks actually, but what are they to do? Tito has to find reps and balance the playing time of Rosario, Miller, Freeman and Arias in the IF as well as all the OFers. I expect Rosario to be dealt, Gimenez to slide over to SS and for Freeman, Miller and Arias battle it out for playing time. Should Arias win out then Gimenez can remain at 2B. If Miller or Freeman win out then they take over 2B while Andres is our SS.

We have a lot of offseason left so some of these guys might not even be a factor by opening day.

I don't really see OGon as a reverse splits guy (if you look at 2021 stats they tell the opposite story where he obliterated lefties). Yeah I'd weight 2022 more heavily because it's the majors but if I had to bet, he will at least be a neutral guy the rest of the way.

This is mainly important because Brennan is NOT a neutral guy by any concept of the word. He has shown much better success, consistently, against righties than lefties. I'm just making up numbers but if someone's a 120 vs RHP and 80 vs LHP you can easily platoon them with the guy who is 100 against both.

We've got a lot of guys who have reverse splits problems. Maybe they are young and just haven't faced many lefties yet but some of them even have had problems with lefties in the minors (not OGon at least, but Arias and Miller for instance). Maybe with enough reps these lefty problems would subside but I feel like this might be a bit of a development problem with how we're working on our hitters. Maybe it's less us and more San Diego though given how Arias, Miller, and Naylor share that link in common.

It's just hard for me to believe that we have all these guys who can't hit lefties, and a lot of them are righties. It's very bizarre. Meanwhile Gimenez and Rosario, who came up through the Mets system, have better platoon splits against lefties than expected; Gimenez is about neutral despite hitting lefty and Rosario has a huge platoon advantage.

Removing the shift should increase the percentage of lefty hitters and over time I imagine the lefty pitchers will catch up so I hope we have some sort of solution to this...

------------------------End of rant about splits, and hitting lefties------------------------

Onto Naylor playing RF I think it's a similar consideration as with Brennan. I do believe that there is a possibility that OGon is seen as someone who has the potential of being a platoon guy. Hopefully that's not the case and 2021 OGon is only the beginning but who knows...

The thing is with all these young guys it's very hard to project their careers, so many of them will clear themselves out of the picture and we might trade others. So having more options is just going to be a better thing in general but given the existence of Valera it does seem weird that we would be looking at Naylor (a bad OF but good 1B) as someone who needs to get more time there. Although reps could potentially make him a better OF. I also know that @sportscoach mentioned something about OF actually being easier on the ankle so maybe for his health too.

Another guy is Noel. I see him as more of a 2024 guy but he might fit into the mix somewhere at some point. Having too many options is not a bad thing, we can keep rotating them around if they fail for long enough.

 

[CBBI]

The whole Straw debate is very simple to me.

If he can hit like he did in 2019 and 2021, he should play every day. His defense and speed are so valuable that you can absolutely justify a 90-95 OPS+ guy in the 9 hole.

Especially now that it appears there won't be offensive black holes at catcher and DH on top of it.

But if he hits like he did in 2022 (65 OPS+), he's a 4th OF or maybe in a platoon with Brennan.

Where it goes from simple to difficult is determining how much rope the guy should get. Are you giving him one month? Two months? Half the season?

 

[CBBI]

So based on Willie's estimations, it would likely cost the Guardians...

Two 55 prospects and two other lesser prospects to land Murphy.

Espino, Valera, Williams, Rocchio, Naylor, Bibee, DeLauter are currently listed as 55s on MLB.com.