2023 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

Pulling down another 25 or so guys........WOOOOOOF. Only a couple more hit the higher success bucket.

Older rotational players to take a crack at:

Kobe Brown (@BimboColesHair) likes him even with an age penalty applied
Oscar Tshiebwe
Adama Sanogo

Sleepers:

The one player that stands out.....relative to production / position / age is Tucker DeVries from Drake. I don't know how he'll test......but a bigger wing who can shoot.

 

[adam81king]

Pulling down another 25 or so guys........WOOOOOOF. Only a couple more hit the higher success bucket.

Older rotational players to take a crack at:

Kobe Brown (@BimboColesHair) likes him even with an age penalty applied
Oscar Tshiebwe
Adama Sanogo

Sleepers:

The one player that stands out.....relative to production / position / age is Tucker DeVries from Drake. I don't know how he'll test......but a bigger wing who can shoot.

Tucker is giving me Windler PTSD.

I assumed hed be in there, but is Armondo Bacot worth thinking about?

Also, can I have permission to use just the data you posted so I can sort them by PDIFF, instead of aggregate mock position, and add things like height and age? Obviously not gonna publish anything, but would like to manipulate presentation a bit.

 

[prf100]

Pulling down another 25 or so guys........WOOOOOOF. Only a couple more hit the higher success bucket.

Older rotational players to take a crack at:

Kobe Brown (@BimboColesHair) likes him even with an age penalty applied
Oscar Tshiebwe
Adama Sanogo

Sleepers:

The one player that stands out.....relative to production / position / age is Tucker DeVries from Drake. I don't know how he'll test......but a bigger wing who can shoot.

Tucker DeVries looks like the love child of Jason Segel and the cop from Bridesmaids.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Also, can I have permission to use just the data you posted so I can sort them by PDIFF, instead of aggregate mock position, and add things like height and age? Obviously not gonna publish anything, but would like to manipulate presentation a bit.

I can publish a google doc at some point for people to take a look at. I'll also post lists sorted by PDIFF when I have the 2023 data set complete.

The inputs go beyond raw stats and do already include elements of athleticism and birth date. I'll summarize these at a high level:

Birth date - The database produces an average age. If a player is below that average age (more theoretical time for development), they get more credit for their production. If they are above that average age, they get less. This is meant to more marginally tip the scales between like prospects and also places a handicap on older players, that they need to play through. So it isn't that you shouldn't take older players......it is that you should only take older players, that generate truly unique production through an age handcuff.

RAS - it isn't exactly NFL RAS........but there is a single number input that is generated based on (ideally) testing from the combine. An average NBA athlete is a 7.5 on a 10 scale. So think, Luka Garza is like a 5 out of 10. Being a 5 out of 10 doesn't disqualify you, it just means that your production needs to hit a higher output threshold than someone who is a 10 out of 10.

In the end, these elements are a mixed average and are then used to either marginally increase or decrease their relative production vs. their peers. So in an ideal world, we want young, athletic guys who produce......but there's a short supply of those guys and if that is all we cared about......we'd be missing the Draymond Green's, Desmond Bane's, etc, etc of the world.

The model I have put together over the years is flexible.......it handcuffs players in specific ways, like described above and sees which players on various points of the age / athletic spectrum still produce at unique levels relative to their peers. So that teams have a better chance of evaluating who are the likely producers from a much larger bucket (any age, athletic, production profile).

Sorry if this was too in the weeds but that is what my model is attempting to do with draft prospects.

 

[adam81king]

I can publish a google doc at some point for people to take a look at. I'll also post lists sorted by PDIFF when I have the 2023 data set complete.

The inputs go beyond raw stats and do already include elements of athleticism and birth date. I'll summarize these at a high level:

Birth date - The database produces an average age. If a player is below that average age (more theoretical time for development), they get more credit for their production. If they are above that average age, they get less. This is meant to more marginally tip the scales between like prospects and also places a handicap on older players, that they need to play through. So it isn't that you shouldn't take older players......it is that you should only take older players, that generate truly unique production through an age handcuff.

RAS - it isn't exactly NFL RAS........but there is a single number input that is generated based on (ideally) testing from the combine. An average NBA athlete is a 7.5 on a 10 scale. So think, Luka Garza is like a 5 out of 10. Being a 5 out of 10 doesn't disqualify you, it just means that your production needs to hit a higher output threshold than someone who is a 10 out of 10.

In the end, these elements are a mixed average and are then used to either marginally increase or decrease their relative production vs. their peers. So in an ideal world, we want young, athletic guys who produce......but there's a short supply of those guys and if that is all we cared about......we'd be missing the Draymond Green's, Desmond Bane's, etc, etc of the world.

The model I have put together over the years is flexible.......it handcuffs players in specific ways, like described above and sees which players on various points of the age / athletic spectrum still produce at unique levels relative to their peers. So that teams have a better chance of evaluating who are the likely producers from a much larger bucket (any age, athletic, production profile).

Sorry if this was too in the weeds but that is what my model is attempting to do with draft prospects.

Its definitely in the weeds, but informative. I didnt want to do any "modifications" to your model, just be able to manipulate the order it was viewed in. On my phone, where I usually view it, its a little hard to go back and forth with the PDIFF groupings. Being able to sort by PDIFF would make it easier to see where guys rank *for me*.

I guess all I'm really asking is to take the data youve posted and allow me to put it in a new google/excel sheet. No formulas or proprietary info. Just the raw outputs for ease of viewing.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Pulling down another 25 or so guys........WOOOOOOF. Only a couple more hit the higher success bucket.

Older rotational players to take a crack at:

Kobe Brown (@BimboColesHair) likes him even with an age penalty applied
Oscar Tshiebwe
Adama Sanogo

Sleepers:

The one player that stands out.....relative to production / position / age is Tucker DeVries from Drake. I don't know how he'll test......but a bigger wing who can shoot.

Not surprised your model likes him.

Decent stocks numbers, low foul rate, low turnover rate on a high usage, and high scoring efficiency. I know your model likes those things.

If the jump shot from this year is real he's a guy I'd be all for in the 2nd. I'd be shocked if the Cavs took someone in the 2nd and actually signed them to an NBA contract, and he's a guy who I think would benefit from being a 2-way guy for a year even with his age. Get him to lose 10-15 lbs on a professional regimen, extend his shooting range a bit, and give him a ton of high usage minutes on a more spaced NBA court and see what you got.

 

[MD13]

Well, that was just about the most disastrous NCAA tournament run for a top prospect I've ever seen. Not sure if it means anything in the long term, but Miller just shot with a 20%/15% shooting split and only averaged 9 ppg across 3 games. Was a big reason why his team lost tonight. In the end, might just be more of the external pressure and being the villain magnified now that he's away from Alabama that got to him.


edit: he's also apparently battling a sore groin.

 

[MattyIce8]

Baylor Schierman can absolutely shoot it

 

[Futuredome]

Miller's lack of a good first step will hold him back. But a 3/D wing?? Pretty good floor.

 

[AZ_]

Andre Jackson from UConn.

The epitome of a distribution role player that is going to make a huge impact on games, both sides of the ball.

What a great performance tonight.

Would be such a great add to this team building around stars.

 

[ajz20]

Ok with the Warriors pick in round two this guy has my attention as a flyer

 

[ajz20]

Andre Jackson from UConn.

The epitome of a distribution role player that is going to make a huge impact on games, both sides of the ball.

What a great performance tonight.

Would be such a great add to this team building around stars.

He will probably make the nba in some fashion. But his jumper is a complete tear down and rebuild. Given our roster make up , I would go with a different type of prospect.

 

[adam81king]

Ok with the Warriors pick in round two this guy has my attention as a flyer

You haven't had enough of skinny shooters from Belmont?

 

[ajz20]

You haven't had enough of skinny shooters from Belmont?

At 48 to 51 I can’t be that picky . I don’t think him and Windler are actually that similar. Again at that stage it’s a flyer no matter who you pick.

 

[AZ_]

He will probably make the nba in some fashion. But his jumper is a complete tear down and rebuild. Given our roster make up , I would go with a different type of prospect.

Tear it down.

But guys like this make teams really good just by doing stuff like this, I’m cool if he doesn’t shoot jumpers.

The passing skill, the bounce, defensive potential?

I’m all in.