2023 Season | Series #19 | Guardians @ Twins | June 1-4, 2023

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Epic bullpen fail. That's the one area of the team I was pretty confident in. Stephan and Morgan had zilch.

At least we're getting some hits. That's 28 runs in the last four games. Guys that we not productive at all have been chipping in; Brennan, Arias, Zunino. Even Bell had an RBI single. We're getting contributions from catcher and right field.

Too bad Naylor tried to steal 3rd base yesterday. He was on an incredible roll, totally locked in, and his bat might have made the difference tonight. Still, getting six runs off Lopez was impressive. Too bad their bullpen shut us out while Stephan and Morgan imploded. I can't believe Morgan walked the #9 hitter on four pitches to start the 9th.

It sucks that the Twins took out Kepler and Buxton but the bench warmers who replaced them won the game with base hits to lead off the 8th. Then Stephan grooves a fastball to Royce Lewis.

This should have been a win. Our bullpen has really regressed this year. Too bad we can't pitch DLS every game.

 

[HammerGold]

Epic bullpen fail. That's the one area of the team I was pretty confident in. Stephan and Morgan had zilch.

At least we're getting some hits. That's 28 runs in the last four games. Guys that we not productive at all have been chipping in; Brennan, Arias, Zunino. Even Bell had an RBI single. We're getting contributions from catcher and right field.

Too bad Naylor tried to steal 3rd base yesterday. He was on an incredible roll, totally locked in, and his bat might have made the difference tonight. Still, getting six runs off Lopez was impressive. Too bad their bullpen shut us out while Stephan and Morgan imploded. I can't believe Morgan walked the #9 hitter on four pitches to start the 9th.

It sucks that the Twins took out Kepler and Buxton but the bench warmers who replaced them won the game with base hits to lead off the 8th. Then Stephan grooves a fastball to Royce Lewis.

This should have been a win. Our bullpen has really regressed this year. Too bad we can't pitch DLS every game.

Bullpens are notoriously volatile year to year

 

[DCTribefan]

Bullpen implodes. Guardians baseball circa 2023.

 

[HammerGold]

Do people realize other teams have bullpens who give up runs? Yesh it's disappointing we don't have an elite bullpen like we hoped but it's still around a top 10 pen.

 

[redscoon]

I can’t even really be mad because the way they are operating tells me they aren’t serious about winning. When they stop playing dead weight every game and start acting like they want to take advantage of a shit division, I’ll get invested.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

It’s just like last year, except, instead of a different guy coming up big every night, a different guy craps the bed every night.

 

[33Y0]

 

[33Y0]

 

[petes999]

Do people realize other teams have bullpens who give up runs? Yesh it's disappointing we don't have an elite bullpen like we hoped but it's still around a top 10 pen.

It's a mixed bag of stats. On FG War, we are 21st. First in saves, 2nd in blown saves, 17th in holds. In win probability added, we are 20th (-0.1). And, we are only of the most "luckiest" pens with a league low .261 BABip. Thus, have a 2.99 ERA (2nd lowest) but a 15th (4.15) xFIP (13th 4.00 FIP). Thus, you can squint and say it is close to 10th but more like we are middle of the pack when adjusting for being a little lucky as most people are commenting from their point of view.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Bibee said he couldn't command his fastball last night. Better to be able to consistently spot a 95 mph than to hit 99 one time in five innings.

Bibee is off to a great start but he has one very concerning problem.

First time through the batting order: .153/.422 BAA
Second time: .263/.702
Third time: .360/.993

He goes from All-Star to average to awful as the batters see more pitches. Last night he said the Twins started sitting on his changeup (which he was throwing a LOT) and he didn't adjust quickly enough. Isn't that the catcher's job - to pick up on that and call for more hard stuff?

Maybe it's just that Bibee needs to get more experience at seeing what approach hitters are taking and reacting quicker, as opposed to just not being that hard to hit once they've seen his pitches.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Game 2 preview:

After getting kicked in the teeth last night the Guardians try to even the score behind Aaron Civale, who will be making his first start in eight weeks. Aaron started the season with a 7-inning, 2-hit gem against Seattle before straining an oblique in his second start.

Last year Civale started two games against the Twins, allowing 12 hits and 8 runs in 9.2 innings. Both games were at Target Field and the Twins hit .300 against him. Buxton and Polanco homered off him. Buxton may he out tonight after being removed from last night's game after taking a 97 mph fastball from Tanner Bibee in the ribs.

Carlos Correa will probably be out as well after aggravating a foot injury. However, that's no loss since Correa is 1-for-15 against the Guardians this year. In 125 at-bats in the #2 spot Correa is hitting .185. And we're complaining about Rosario.

I'm expecting a lot of curveballs from Civale. Last year his curve had a value of 4.8 according to Fangraphs. All his other pitches were negative. Civale basically used his other pitches to try and get to two strikes to set up his curve as the putaway pitch.

Bailey Ober, a 6'9" right-hander, goes for the Twins. Ober is having a good year at 3-2, 2.68. He pitched seven shutout innings against the Guardians a month ago, allowing just three hits and one walk. Ober is an extreme fly ball pitcher (77/31 FB/GB ratio) so we'll see if the Guardians can get some balls in the air and hit a home run. Hopefully Josh Naylor can play. In his last two games Naylor is 6-for-8 with three doubles, a home run, and a walk. He finished May with a .293/.890 line. He's also playing impeccable defense. I would say Josh has been playing at an All-Star level the last month. He's on pace for 116 RBI's.

Ober has a 0.69 ERA on the road and 3.62 at Target, so he's been good but not unhittable in this park. All three home runs allowed have been at home. Batters are hitting .207 against him. Last year in 11 starts he had a 3.21 ERA so it appears he is emerging as an excellent starter at age 27 in his third season. At his height it probably took him longer to get all those long levers working in sync, but it seems to be paying off now. Jose is 3-for-8 against him but the rest of the Guardians are 5-for-43.

It will be interesting to see how the Guardians do against Ober as they are seeing him for the second time. They are also swinging the bats better, having scored 28 runs in the last four games, although they did benefit from some seeing-eye ground balls and bloop hits bunched together in one inning last night. They scored five runs in one inning without hitting the ball hard once.

 

[CATS44]

First rule of pitching:

Don't walk the first batter you face.

Three times last night the leadoff batter was walked. All three scored.

From 2017-2019 42% of leadoff walks came around to score. At least one run was scored 43% of the time.

I'm assuming, but have no data, that the new rules that allow more stolen bases and more hits push that number up.

The average batting average is around .250. One in four. GIVING a batter a base to leadoff an inning is a baseball no no.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

First rule of pitching:

Don't walk the first batter you face.

Three times last night the leadoff batter was walked. All three scored.

From 2017-2019 42% of leadoff walks came around to score. At least one run was scored 43% of the time.

I'm assuming, but have no data, that the new rules that allow more stolen bases and more hits push that number up.

The average batting average is around .250. One in four. GIVING a batter a base to leadoff an inning is a baseball no no.

My pet peeve - walking the leadoff hitter. Especially Morgan walking the #9 hitter to lead off the 9th with the top of the order coming up next - all three left-handed hitters.

If Morgan holds the Twins scoreless we had Rosario on 2nd and our 3-4-5 hitters coming up in the 10th. Best possible scenario - our fastest base runner in scoring position with Jose, Gimenez, and Bell due up.

Eli is on his way to a career season - his ERA was 1.74 coming into last night's game. Normally he doesn't pitch in the 9th with the score tied. He looked very uncomfortable out there. His first four pitches were balls and then he fell behind Polanco 3-1 and had to groove one.

Nick Sandlin in his last 9.2 innings has allowed 1 hit, 1 walks, no runs, and has 8 K's. He's on a roll.

 

[CATS44]

Lots of things go into a win or loss...and many of them aren't even part of the game at hand...which is why a manager has to make in game decisions with one eye on the future.

There was a domino effect to last night's loss that began clear back in the 4-3 win over St. Louis on the 28th.

In that game, Curry threw 3 scoreless innings to get the win.

Tito has to base his decisions on some assumptions, one of which is that the pen will get a break when Bieber pitches. He certainly couldn't have foreseen needing Curry until last night at the earliest. But that didn't happen on Wednesday. Under normal situations, Tito would have had Curry for multiple innings, but Tito won't do that without Curry having at least three days of rest after a long outing.

Instead of getting six IP or Curry getting three, Tito could only get a combined five...and he had to use four more relievers.

Because of Bieber not going six, Tito was without Curry, Hentges, and Clase last night...which forced him to put Morgan into an uncomfortable position. Normally, Curry would have been available last night for multiple innings.

Tito made two decisions that helped win two games, but may have cost one last night. Biebers bad start on Wednesday didn't cost that game, but it may have cost us last night.

 

[Gson]

The Twins Pablo Lopez mirrored Tanner Bibee's pitching performance.. it was entertaining and saddening to watch the eventual outcome of both players results.. The pen for the Guardians and specifically Trevor Stephan clearly had a bad night.. Eli Morgan was out of his depth/untried as a late inning/high leverage reliever.. The Twins pen was pretty good, especially Emilio Pagan.. he came into a mess and slammed the door.. Jax was just as effective..

Going into tonight's game.. the Civale who controls and commands his curve ball is the guy that's needed.. The Guardians got to see this tall drink of water a month or so ago.. and couldn't figure him out..

oh.. Buxton hasn't been put on the IL... yet.. He probably won't play tonight...