2023 Season | Series #19 | Guardians @ Twins | June 1-4, 2023

[CATS44]

But, aren’t you also the one always complaining that Tribe aren’t trading their prospects while they have your “perceived” value (ASSuming a trade could have been made) and saying we can’t wait another x years to compete? So don’t say others aren’t being patient when you are not with our prospects either.. You say I should trust Tito because he is usually right but you don’t trust FO either when they are usually right. Thus, don’t preach patience to me when you should look in the mirror too.

There is a difference between Tito having patience with his present roster and the FO having patience with its overflow of upper level prospects. Prospects that don't get used lose their value...and so do prospects that sit on the bench in Cleveland. Even if (when) Amed is moved, there are enough at bats for all the young MIFs.

I am a huge fan of the FO, except in one area...and I've been saying it for at least five years. It is too risk averse with its young players. It is willing to let them go for nearly nothing, but unwilling to trade them for upgrades.

This began when the trade for Andrew Miller was made, which I wasn't happy with. It worked so well, as did the trade for Hand, that I changed my mind.

I looked at four major trades...Miller, Hand, Robbie Alomar, and the Lucroy fiasco. Thats a ton of well thought of prospects involved in those instances. NOT ONE provided major production.

When Naquin came in third in ROY voting, I suggested immediately trading him...to a chorus of hoots. The same with Zimmer and a host of others that eventually turned to dust.

No Tribe/Guardian situation in this century screamed for this FO to make a major move as this past off season. It was the perfect storm, both in our talent and financial situation...and in major, young, controllable talent available.

And, yes, trades can be made....just like FAs can be signed. All you have to do is outbid the others. Every trade and FA signing succeeds by outbidding someone else. This winter was no exception.

If we now had a highly productive RF at below market value for three years, we would have no use for all of Valera, Oscar, and Brennan. They would all be out of options before we could use them. If we now had a highly productive catcher below market value for three years, the same with Bo. Even with Amed gone, we will end up with multiple highly ranked MIF prospects running out of options very soon. Brito is already on the clock. What chance do you think he has of ever getting a serious shot in Cleveland with Jose and Gimenez installed, and one spot available for a slew of others ahead of him? Unless every other youngster fails or we TRADE several of them, the answer is no shot.

Prospects, no matter how good, have ZERO value if there is no room for them and the FO refuses to trade them. And thats the situation we are in, and have been in.

Jones was our top prospect for three years, and a perennial top 100...but there was no room for him. Trading him as part of a package for an upgrade...throwing him in as the extra piece to 'overpay' for an upgrade...would have provided immediate value that we lost.

Patience is a virtue...until it becomes paralysis.

When it comes to marketing prospects, this FO has been paralyzed.

 

[petes999]

There is a difference between Tito having patience with his present roster and the FO having patience with its overflow of upper level prospects. Prospects that don't get used lose their value...and so do prospects that sit on the bench in Cleveland. Even if (when) Amed is moved, there are enough at bats for all the young MIFs.

I am a huge fan of the FO, except in one area...and I've been saying it for at least five years. It is too risk averse with its young players. It is willing to let them go for nearly nothing, but unwilling to trade them for upgrades.

This began when the trade for Andrew Miller was made, which I wasn't happy with. It worked so well, as did the trade for Hand, that I changed my mind.

I looked at four major trades...Miller, Hand, Robbie Alomar, and the Lucroy fiasco. Thats a ton of well thought of prospects involved in those instances. NOT ONE provided major production.

When Naquin came in third in ROY voting, I suggested immediately trading him...to a chorus of hoots. The same with Zimmer and a host of others that eventually turned to dust.

No Tribe/Guardian situation in this century screamed for this FO to make a major move as this past off season. It was the perfect storm, both in our talent and financial situation...and in major, young, controllable talent available.

And, yes, trades can be made....just like FAs can be signed. All you have to do is outbid the others. Every trade and FA signing succeeds by outbidding someone else. This winter was no exception.

If we now had a highly productive RF at below market value for three years, we would have no use for all of Valera, Oscar, and Brennan. They would all be out of options before we could use them. If we now had a highly productive catcher below market value for three years, the same with Bo. Even with Amed gone, we will end up with multiple highly ranked MIF prospects running out of options very soon. Brito is already on the clock. What chance do you think he has of ever getting a serious shot in Cleveland with Jose and Gimenez installed, and one spot available for a slew of others ahead of him? Unless every other youngster fails or we TRADE several of them, the answer is no shot.

Prospects, no matter how good, have ZERO value if there is no room for them and the FO refuses to trade them. And thats the situation we are in, and have been in.

Jones was our top prospect for three years, and a perennial top 100...but there was no room for him. Trading him as part of a package for an upgrade...throwing him in as the extra piece to 'overpay' for an upgrade...would have provided immediate value that we lost.

Patience is a virtue...until it becomes paralysis.

When it comes to marketing prospects, this FO has been paralyzed.

So your definition is everyone else needs patience (wrong) but you ... Good analysis. There is the old saying, when you are pointing the fingers at all of us (telling us what to do), you got 3 pointed at you too. But, again, you can say FO needs to get off their hands, but I am sure there are 3-4x the trades that they tried and were so close that fallen through at last minute (as silent auctions are a bitch and you need 50 pokers in the fire to get even 1 to work out in the end). And, it is blindman's bluff -- where you don't know if the other GM is telling you the truth on what someone else offered. Team me the number of times we have heard trades being promoted on twitter that our ex-insider said wasn't true (or came out later as untrue about other teams - plenty). So, you can say their patience have become paralysis or that the fans that want more trades are getting to that point. Reynolds was never really on the market no matter how much we hoped he was for the cheap price of trading a Valera and others to get him. All teams were calling, 28 teams also failed. And, we should have traded Espino before his arm issues unless there were already red flags in his medical report and thus they wanted to hang onto Bibee and Williams (who they knew were about to skyrocket in value once Spring came along and people saw their winter work). There are a lot of hidden things we never know.

Such as, you wanted to trade Naquin after 2016 ROY ... yet at the same time that was the time period they were signing EE and other moves trying to go all in (keeping what they had which Naquin was a small piece to their plan). Again, tell them to use their poker chips (prospects) but only certain ones now looking back is a bit revisionist and selective. Yes Naquin was probably this year's Oscar -- but when you have limited resources, you have to gamble sometimes with what you have. It's hard to buy and sell and win each side of trade at same time and if Naquin was the missing piece in 17 (more than him was the issues), other fans would be crucifying them for trading him and then missing next year's playoffs (especially if he somehow tunred into a Y Diaz type -- you never really know with prospects even with GMs/managers with much more experience than you or I.

 

[DCTribefan]

So your definition is everyone else needs patience (wrong) but you ... Good analysis. There is the old saying, when you are pointing the fingers at all of us (telling us what to do), you got 3 pointed at you too. But, again, you can say FO needs to get off their hands, but I am sure there are 3-4x the trades that they tried and were so close that fallen through at last minute (as silent auctions are a bitch and you need 50 pokers in the fire to get even 1 to work out in the end). And, it is blindman's bluff -- where you don't know if the other GM is telling you the truth on what someone else offered. Team me the number of times we have heard trades being promoted on twitter that our ex-insider said wasn't true (or came out later as untrue about other teams - plenty). So, you can say their patience have become paralysis or that the fans that want more trades are getting to that point. Reynolds was never really on the market no matter how much we hoped he was for the cheap price of trading a Valera and others to get him. All teams were calling, 28 teams also failed. And, we should have traded Espino before his arm issues unless there were already red flags in his medical report and thus they wanted to hang onto Bibee and Williams (who they knew were about to skyrocket in value once Spring came along and people saw their winter work). There are a lot of hidden things we never know.

Such as, you wanted to trade Naquin after 2016 ROY ... yet at the same time that was the time period they were signing EE and other moves trying to go all in (keeping what they had which Naquin was a small piece to their plan). Again, tell them to use their poker chips (prospects) but only certain ones now looking back is a bit revisionist and selective. Yes Naquin was probably this year's Oscar -- but when you have limited resources, you have to gamble sometimes with what you have. It's hard to buy and sell and win each side of trade at same time and if Naquin was the missing piece in 17 (more than him was the issues), other fans would be crucifying them for trading him and then missing next year's playoffs (especially if he somehow tunred into a Y Diaz type -- you never really know with prospects even with GMs/managers with much more experience than you or I.

Reynolds was never really on the market no matter how much we hoped he was for the cheap price of trading a Valera and others to get him. All teams were calling, 28 teams also failed. THIS X10.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

So your definition is everyone else needs patience (wrong) but you ... Good analysis. There is the old saying, when you are pointing the fingers at all of us (telling us what to do), you got 3 pointed at you too. But, again, you can say FO needs to get off their hands, but I am sure there are 3-4x the trades that they tried and were so close that fallen through at last minute (as silent auctions are a bitch and you need 50 pokers in the fire to get even 1 to work out in the end). And, it is blindman's bluff -- where you don't know if the other GM is telling you the truth on what someone else offered. Team me the number of times we have heard trades being promoted on twitter that our ex-insider said wasn't true (or came out later as untrue about other teams - plenty). So, you can say their patience have become paralysis or that the fans that want more trades are getting to that point. Reynolds was never really on the market no matter how much we hoped he was for the cheap price of trading a Valera and others to get him. All teams were calling, 28 teams also failed. And, we should have traded Espino before his arm issues unless there were already red flags in his medical report and thus they wanted to hang onto Bibee and Williams (who they knew were about to skyrocket in value once Spring came along and people saw their winter work). There are a lot of hidden things we never know.

Such as, you wanted to trade Naquin after 2016 ROY ... yet at the same time that was the time period they were signing EE and other moves trying to go all in (keeping what they had which Naquin was a small piece to their plan). Again, tell them to use their poker chips (prospects) but only certain ones now looking back is a bit revisionist and selective. Yes Naquin was probably this year's Oscar -- but when you have limited resources, you have to gamble sometimes with what you have. It's hard to buy and sell and win each side of trade at same time and if Naquin was the missing piece in 17 (more than him was the issues), other fans would be crucifying them for trading him and then missing next year's playoffs (especially if he somehow tunred into a Y Diaz type -- you never really know with prospects even with GMs/managers with much more experience than you or I.

He also fails to realize that he's proving himself wrong with his own examples.

He talks about trades where we sent out highly-regarded prospects, and none of them hit.

Maybe the organization self-scouts better than online prospect rankings? Maybe there's a reason we sold the guys who didn't pan out? Maybe the front office is pretty damn good at this whole thing...

Nah, @CATS44 must be right.

 

[CDAV45]

CATS has his opinions and that's fine even if I'm totally of the opposite take. I think they sat on their hands too long with Kluber, Lindor and now Bieber. I say that with the rational thought that we weren't a real contender with him coming into this season and that the return would bolster the roster in the next year or 2. Now, his value has likely plummeted and we have better SP's on the roster and at least one in Columbus waiting to be called. He would have sent any prospect to get Murphy and basically rendered Bo Naylor useless even if Bo ends up being as good or better than Murphy. That's simply not this organizations way of doing things and it shouldn't be because they can't afford to go that route. If they add veteran, proven players by trade it will be short term acquisitions that require lesser prospect returns. You know, like we did with Kluber, Lindor and now maybe Bieber. Certainly with Rosario.

I'm not happy with this FO and Tito either to be honest. I feel like they are trying to build a contender and at the same time keep people like CATS happy. I'd prefer they just stick to their guns, choose a path and say "fuck 'em, we know what it takes and how to get there".

Attendance is up and I firmly believe it's because of the excitement generated by some of these young guys. Any chance of us winning a WS within the next 5 yrs will be because of these young guys. I say use the value of players that won't be here for that run to get players/prospects that will be. Many will not work out for sure, but some will become core pieces. That's how this organization will get to the promise land and hanging onto guys reaching FA in seasons that will take an act of God to win a WS is counterintuitive.

 

[DerekG123]

CATS has his opinions and that's fine even if I'm totally of the opposite take. I think they sat on their hands too long with Kluber and now Bieber. I say that with the rational thought that we weren't a real contender with him coming into this season and that the return would bolster the roster in the next year or 2. Now, his value has likely plummeted and we have better SP's on the roster and at least one in Columbus waiting to be called. He would have sent any prospect to get Murphy and basically rendered Bo Naylor useless even if Bo ends up being as good or better than Murphy. That's simply not this organizations way of doing things and it shouldn't be because they can't afford to go that route. If they add veteran, proven players by trade it will be short term acquisitions that require lesser prospect returns. You know, like we did with Kluber, Lindor and now maybe Bieber. Certainly with Rosario.

I'm not happy with this FO and Tito either to be honest. I feel like they are trying to build a contender and at the same time keep people like CATS happy. I'd prefer they just stick to their guns, choose a path and say "fuck 'em, we know what it takes and how to get there".

Attendance is up and I firmly believe it's because of the excitement generated by some of these young guys. Any chance of us winning a WS within the next 5 yrs will be because of these young guys. I say use the value of players that won't be here for that run to get players/prospects that will be. Many will not work out for sure, but some will become core pieces. That's how this organization will get to the promise land and hanging onto guys reaching FA in seasons that will take an act of God to win a WS is counterintuitive.

When this franchise gets an "unsignable" star its definetely better for them to lean on the side of trading them too early rather than too late.

 

[KluberSociety]

When this franchise gets an "unsignable" star its definetely better for them to lean on the side of trading them too early rather than too late.

Would generally agree with this logic but without Bieber there would've been a gaping hole in the front of the rotation. It was a lot easier back in the Kluber/Bauer days when we could go 4 or 5 deep but our #3/4 were Civale and Quantrill.

Now though it appears a bit too late to extract much out of him so he might actually be better just sticking around unless someone will pay fair price. Sometimes shit just happens.

I'm more down on upper minors prospect management. We send guys to MLB and sit them on the bench because there's too many of them. And then we lose guys to Rule 5 because again, there's too many of them. And we lose flexibility in the offseason because... too many prospects. Can't sign without rushing a trade, can't do little things like keeping Maile around when we lack C depth, etc.

Not to mention the strategy of "seeing what they got" in the big leagues is like dealing your cards face up. When they struggle who is actually going to buy your bluff?

 

[CDAV45]

Would generally agree with this logic but without Bieber there would've been a gaping hole in the front of the rotation. It was a lot easier back in the Kluber/Bauer days when we could go 4 or 5 deep but our #3/4 were Civale and Quantrill.

Now though it appears a bit too late to extract much out of him so he might actually be better just sticking around unless someone will pay fair price. Sometimes shit just happens.

I'm more down on upper minors prospect management. We send guys to MLB and sit them on the bench because there's too many of them. And then we lose guys to Rule 5 because again, there's too many of them. And we lose flexibility in the offseason because... too many prospects. Can't sign without rushing a trade, can't do little things like keeping Maile around when we lack C depth, etc.

Not to mention the strategy of "seeing what they got" in the big leagues is like dealing your cards face up. When they struggle who is actually going to buy your bluff?

If your system is deep then it's next man up if someone struggles for an extended time. That's the beauty of having the flexibility of options. We don't get that with Rosario. Hell, he sucks at SS and can't play another position which means he's penciled in at SS most of the time. He's simply in the way now.

At no point in time will it be better if Bieber just sticks around. You'd be doing the same thing with Bieber that's happening with Rosario. Williams needs to be promoted as soon as his service time/super 2 passes. Let's see if Cantillo continues his dominant ways. He and Morris could be a good tandem until their innings are built up. Point being, there is a shit ton of SP in Cleveland's system.

You're probably right in saying that there would have been a gaping hole since McKenzie, Civale and Morris were all on the IL, but damned if I wouldn't have risked it. I knew this would happen and I'm not happy about it. I don't believe for one second they didn't see it coming either.

 

[DerekG123]

Would generally agree with this logic but without Bieber there would've been a gaping hole in the front of the rotation. It was a lot easier back in the Kluber/Bauer days when we could go 4 or 5 deep but our #3/4 were Civale and Quantrill.

Now though it appears a bit too late to extract much out of him so he might actually be better just sticking around unless someone will pay fair price. Sometimes shit just happens.

I'm more down on upper minors prospect management. We send guys to MLB and sit them on the bench because there's too many of them. And then we lose guys to Rule 5 because again, there's too many of them. And we lose flexibility in the offseason because... too many prospects. Can't sign without rushing a trade, can't do little things like keeping Maile around when we lack C depth, etc.

Not to mention the strategy of "seeing what they got" in the big leagues is like dealing your cards face up. When they struggle who is actually going to buy your bluff?

Thats true it would have left a hole but I wasnt high on the teams chances of winning it all last year for one but two when you trade a Bieber when he is "up" there is a chance that you can get a very close to contributing talented pitcher who is young and cause I feel pitching prospect success is a lot more predictable than hitters I would take my shot with the young guy. He may not as good as Bieber right away or ever but could be very solid. When he is kinda slipping like this now you are limited to probably getting some low A prospects as the most talented players in a trade with some decent upper level guys.

 

[Lee]

I don't know if anyone noticed his footwork on that play where Lewis went ass over applecart, but I don't know if we have another 1B that can adjust that quickly.

Its very impressive how many positions Arias can play as a +defender.

 

[CDAV45]

Thats true it would have left a hole but I wasnt high on the teams chances of winning it all last year for one but two when you trade a Bieber when he is "up" there is a chance that you can get a very close to contributing talented pitcher who is young and cause I feel pitching prospect success is a lot more predictable than hitters I would take my shot with the young guy. He may not as good as Bieber right away or ever but could be very solid. When he is kinda slipping like this now you are limited to probably getting some low A prospects as the most talented players in a trade with some decent upper level guys.

What you say here has some merit IMO, but I also think they'll do better than "some low A prospects". Admittedly, I could be wrong so we'll have to wait and see. Either way, they should have dealt him in the offseason IMO. That's just me and I respectfully acknowledge others who would prefer to see if this team can get into the playoffs with Bieber. I don't think it has the lineup to get very far regardless of how good or bad the pitching is.

 

[DerekG123]

What you say here has some merit IMO, but I also think they'll do better than "some low A prospects". Admittedly, I could be wrong so we'll have to wait and see. Either way, they should have dealt him in the offseason IMO. That's just me and I respectfully acknowledge others who would prefer to see if this team can get into the playoffs with Bieber. I don't think it has the lineup to get very far regardless of how good or bad the pitching is.

Well to clarify, Im saying the most talented guys would be from Low A. In other words, I dont see any upper level blue chippers coming back. Not that there wpnt be any upper level guys or major leaguers at all.

 

[KluberSociety]

Thats true it would have left a hole but I wasnt high on the teams chances of winning it all last year for one but two when you trade a Bieber when he is "up" there is a chance that you can get a very close to contributing talented pitcher who is young and cause I feel pitching prospect success is a lot more predictable than hitters I would take my shot with the young guy. He may not as good as Bieber right away or ever but could be very solid. When he is kinda slipping like this now you are limited to probably getting some low A prospects as the most talented players in a trade with some decent upper level guys.

All I'm saying is it's easy to say he's slipping now but he basically had the same velo last year and was damn good. So whatever has happened so far is not really to be expected.

 

[CBBI]

All I'm saying is it's easy to say he's slipping now but he basically had the same velo last year and was damn good. So whatever has happened so far is not really to be expected.

It’s not a velocity thing as you said. Bieber is pretty much steady from last year from a velocity standpoint.

His fastball and his cutter are both less effective this year, his cutter significantly so.

But with that in mind, inexplicably his cutter usage - despite it really being his least effective pitch - has spiked. And that spike has come primarily at the expensive of his curveball, which is still a very effective pitch.

Not sure if it’s command or injury or whatever, but Bieber has essentially replaced his really good curve with a really bad cutter and the results are pretty bad.

 

[KluberSociety]

It’s not a velocity thing as you said. Bieber is pretty much steady from last year from a velocity standpoint.

His fastball and his cutter are both less effective this year, his cutter significantly so.

But with that in mind, inexplicably his cutter usage - despite it really being his least effective pitch - has spiked. And that spike has come primarily at the expensive of his curveball, which is still a very effective pitch.

Not sure if it’s command or injury or whatever, but Bieber has essentially replaced his really good curve with a really bad cutter and the results are pretty bad.

That's interesting, I didn't look at it that deep but good work there and that does raise a ton of questions. Hopefully he can at least start throwing that curve again at some point.