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2023 Season | Series #31 | Guardians @ Pirates | July 17-19, 2023

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Hell, I wanted one gone before the year and one given year to get acclimated. Arias chances diminished due to FO/Tito decisions … given not even a half a chance to get comfortable before the MIF wave really came.

I have 0 problems with Amed still being here for reasons I have gone over in other places. We keep trending down the path we are going and these guys we want to be given a chance will be given a chance.
 
I have 0 problems with Amed still being here for reasons I have gone over in other places. We keep trending down the path we are going and these guys we want to be given a chance will be given a chance.

How will all 3 of Freeman, Arias and Rocchio be given a chance in their last option year next year (assuming Arias isn't sent down this year. Then Brito and Martinez are knocking on the door next year (end of 2024 for 2025). That assume Tena doesn't break out even more (lost in the wave).

You say that you expect all to be here next year but also said (if I recall) that Jones was traded as he was on his last option year (thus holding him would diminish trade value dramatically). And, they made that decision on 96 MLB ABs for Jones and 42 ABs for Brennan (guess Oscar's 362 ABs). I believe in that 500 AB number to see how a hitter enters the league and has time to even adj to pitcher's adj. (so far 184 for Arias, 146 Freeman and 14 for Rocchio). Long way to go and I would believe it more if Rosario is DFA at least by Aug 1. Yet, if SS position has 600 ABs and super utility may get 300-400 -- that is 900 max ABs for 3 guys (just getting to 500 without Martinez or Brito knocking on door) - but all would have no options (value for trade at end of 2024, if they need more time to adjust).

There is value to letting the kids cut their teeth on real experience w pressure than sit around all day and just do side session for coaches all year). As you also said, Benson could look great in the cage but lose it in the game and needed that time to adjust and keep those adjustments when it counted.

I appreciate your insights, but help me here how it can happen without rushing them to succeed almost right away. Know you said Martinez can be moved to CF (so that helps). What else?
 

This seems like about the stretch where Arias was given a chance. 101 wRC+, unsustainable BB rate and probably HR rate too but his BABIP would likely improve.

Regardless of your opinions of Arias or Freeman or Rocchio or whoever though it's hard to defend Amed as an everyday player in the 2 hole.
 
How will all 3 of Freeman, Arias and Rocchio be given a chance in their last option year next year (assuming Arias isn't sent down this year. Then Brito and Martinez are knocking on the door next year (end of 2024 for 2025). That assume Tena doesn't break out even more (lost in the wave).

You say that you expect all to be here next year but also said (if I recall) that Jones was traded as he was on his last option year (thus holding him would diminish trade value dramatically). And, they made that decision on 96 MLB ABs for Jones and 42 ABs for Brennan (guess Oscar's 362 ABs). I believe in that 500 AB number to see how a hitter enters the league and has time to even adj to pitcher's adj. (so far 184 for Arias, 146 Freeman and 14 for Rocchio). Long way to go and I would believe it more if Rosario is DFA at least by Aug 1. Yet, if SS position has 600 ABs and super utility may get 300-400 -- that is 900 max ABs for 3 guys (just getting to 500 without Martinez or Brito knocking on door) - but all would have no options (value for trade at end of 2024, if they need more time to adjust).

There is value to letting the kids cut their teeth on real experience w pressure than sit around all day and just do side session for coaches all year). As you also said, Benson could look great in the cage but lose it in the game and needed that time to adjust and keep those adjustments when it counted.

I appreciate your insights, but help me here how it can happen without rushing them to succeed almost right away. Know you said Martinez can be moved to CF (so that helps). What else?

I've been saying "if all are here next year". Not that I expect them all to be here. I can see one being traded in a few weeks if the team is trending up, and I'd expect it to be Arias because of the options issue. If the team is treading water and finds themselves 6, 7, 8 games back come the deadline though? I think you guys will finally see some of the changes you've been asking for because the team has to find out what these guys have.

But Freeman should never be optioned again. He has proven in the very least that he can hit in a bench role, which is more than Arias has shown and is valuable in its own right giving him a very safe floor. That's what Jose did before he was able to break in as a regular. A lot of guys have followed that route to becoming an everyday player. So options don't matter with him, I can't see him going down anytime soon, if ever again.

So logically, if all are here, it would be a "who wins the job" thing in Spring between Arias and Rocchio given Freeman's proven floor, at least in my mind. Could we trade one in the winter? Absolutely. But if all 3 are here at the start of Spring Training that is how I see it going down.

And Nolan was traded to extend the asset, yes, but at the time his path for playing time here just wasn't there. He can't play CF. Kwan, Gonzalez, Brennan all had too good of a showing not to roll with them into the start of this season, Naylor surely wasn't moving off 1B, Jose wasn't moving off 3B, and we were looking hard at proven hitters to be the DH. There just was no spot, at the time. We also moved him for a hitter we really, really liked, and for good reason.
 

This seems like about the stretch where Arias was given a chance. 101 wRC+, unsustainable BB rate and probably HR rate too but his BABIP would likely improve.

Regardless of your opinions of Arias or Freeman or Rocchio or whoever though it's hard to defend Amed as an everyday player in the 2 hole.

It's not an unsustainable BB rate when he is being developed to see a ton of pitches.

Something a lot of guys who have come through Columbus recently have as part of their games. Almost like that's how the coach there is developing them.
 
It's not an unsustainable BB rate when he is being developed to see a ton of pitches.

Something a lot of guys who have come through Columbus recently have as part of their games. Almost like that's how the coach there is developing them.
Here's the list of players over the last 3 years with BB rates of 12.7% or higher (min 1000 PA):

Juan Soto
Joey Gallo
Max Muncy
Yasmani Grandal
Aaron Judge
Bryce Harper
Kyle Schwarber
Christian Yelich
Jesse Winker
Carlos Santana
Yandy Diaz
Robbie Grossman
Shohei Ohtani
Andrew McCutchen

Everyone on this list is either a huge power threat or extremely patient, or both.

Arias is more patient than he used to be but he's still swinging at 30% of balls and 75% of strikes this year (29% and 71% in full MLB career) and he's not exactly a fearsome slugger. A lot would still have to change for him to sustain those kind of walk rates.

If he could just keep up 10% that would be pretty good IMO. It would be basically where Kwan and Ramirez are at and since he will be pitched more carefully than Kwan and less carefully than Ramirez I think that's a fair goal.

Re: Patience, hopefully Will Brennan gets the memo soon.
 
Just for reference:

League average pitches per plate appearance in 2023 is 3.91. 56 qualified players see at least 4 pitches per plate appearance, that's just 1/3rd of all qualified hitters. At this moment, recent players who graduated from Columbus are seeing:

Nolan Jones: 4.30
Will Benson: 4.08
Gabriel Arias: 4.16
Bo Naylor: 4.33
Steven Kwan: 4.04

The average BB rate of players seeing at least 4 pitches per plate appearance is a hair over 10.5%.

Nolan Jones BB rate: 10.7%
Will Benson BB rate: 14.7%
Gabriel Arias BB rate: 13.3%
Bo Naylor BB rate: 8.2%
Steven Kwan BB rate: 9.6%

A 12.7% rate for a guy seeing that many pitches when everyone else who sees that many pitches per plate appearance BBs a ton isn't unsustainable. It's how these guys are being developed in the upper levels of our system right now.
 
Just for reference:

League average pitches per plate appearance in 2023 is 3.91. 56 qualified players see at least 4 pitches per plate appearance, that's just 1/3rd of all qualified hitters. At this moment, recent players who graduated from Columbus are seeing:

Nolan Jones: 4.30
Will Benson: 4.08
Gabriel Arias: 4.16
Bo Naylor: 4.33
Steven Kwan: 4.04

The average BB rate of players seeing at least 4 pitches per plate appearance is a hair over 10.5%.

Nolan Jones BB rate: 10.7%
Will Benson BB rate: 14.7%
Gabriel Arias BB rate: 13.3%
Bo Naylor BB rate: 8.2%
Steven Kwan BB rate: 9.6%

A 12.7% rate for a guy seeing that many pitches when everyone else who sees that many pitches per plate appearance BBs a ton isn't unsustainable. It's how these guys are being developed in the upper levels of our system right now.
Benson and Jones are significantly more patient than Arias though. Arias has had the benefit of seeing more balls than them but I'm not really sure why that'd be. The fact that he is a lower contact guy does increase his chances of going deeper into counts like Jones and Benson but it's hard to believe he'll keep getting walks so easy. Bo is also likely significantly more patient. 10% is good, MLB average is 8.6%... maybe if he keeps hitting in front of Straw and Gallagher he can be more like 12%, but I'm not seeing it now.

Anything above 10% would be a development win anyway, this is a guy who was described as essentially see-ball-hit-ball as a young one.
 
Just for reference:

League average pitches per plate appearance in 2023 is 3.91. 56 qualified players see at least 4 pitches per plate appearance, that's just 1/3rd of all qualified hitters. At this moment, recent players who graduated from Columbus are seeing:

Nolan Jones: 4.30
Will Benson: 4.08
Gabriel Arias: 4.16
Bo Naylor: 4.33
Steven Kwan: 4.04

The average BB rate of players seeing at least 4 pitches per plate appearance is a hair over 10.5%.

Nolan Jones BB rate: 10.7%
Will Benson BB rate: 14.7%
Gabriel Arias BB rate: 13.3%
Bo Naylor BB rate: 8.2%
Steven Kwan BB rate: 9.6%

A 12.7% rate for a guy seeing that many pitches when everyone else who sees that many pitches per plate appearance BBs a ton isn't unsustainable. It's how these guys are being developed in the upper levels of our system right now.
I've had a hard-on for pitches per plate appearance since Napoli and Santana made that engine go in 2016.

Still disappointed we never brought McCutcheon in.

Pretty excited that we're developing this trait.
 
Just for reference:

League average pitches per plate appearance in 2023 is 3.91. 56 qualified players see at least 4 pitches per plate appearance, that's just 1/3rd of all qualified hitters. At this moment, recent players who graduated from Columbus are seeing:

Nolan Jones: 4.30
Will Benson: 4.08
Gabriel Arias: 4.16
Bo Naylor: 4.33
Steven Kwan: 4.04

The average BB rate of players seeing at least 4 pitches per plate appearance is a hair over 10.5%.

Nolan Jones BB rate: 10.7%
Will Benson BB rate: 14.7%
Gabriel Arias BB rate: 13.3%
Bo Naylor BB rate: 8.2%
Steven Kwan BB rate: 9.6%

A 12.7% rate for a guy seeing that many pitches when everyone else who sees that many pitches per plate appearance BBs a ton isn't unsustainable. It's how these guys are being developed in the upper levels of our system right now.

Sorry, I read incorrectly on this one on my spreadsheet and got this one wrong. Please forgive me.

The average BB rate of players seeing 4+ pitches per plate appearance is 11.5%, not 10.5%.

Point remains. Guys who see a lot of pitches BB a lot. They also tend to K a lot, those go hand and hand when working that deep into counts. That is how our guys are being developed. Nothing they are doing is unsustainable, they are always going to BB a lot.
 
Benson and Jones are significantly more patient than Arias though. Arias has had the benefit of seeing more balls than them but I'm not really sure why that'd be. The fact that he is a lower contact guy does increase his chances of going deeper into counts like Jones and Benson but it's hard to believe he'll keep getting walks so easy. Bo is also likely significantly more patient. 10% is good, MLB average is 8.6%... maybe if he keeps hitting in front of Straw and Gallagher he can be more like 12%, but I'm not seeing it now.

Anything above 10% would be a development win anyway, this is a guy who was described as essentially see-ball-hit-ball as a young one.

Arias fouls more pitches off than Jones and Benson.

By a wide margin.

And you know the beautiful thing about guys who have the plate discipline and hand eye skills to take pitches or foul them off consistent enough to work that deep into counts consistently?

Typically their contact rates improve with a little tweaking and maturity.
 
Sorry, I read incorrectly on this one on my spreadsheet and got this one wrong. Please forgive me.

The average BB rate of players seeing 4+ pitches per plate appearance is 11.5%, not 10.5%.

Point remains. Guys who see a lot of pitches BB a lot. They also tend to K a lot, those go hand and hand when working that deep into counts. That is how our guys are being developed. Nothing they are doing is unsustainable, they are always going to BB a lot.
I've noticed Oscar striking out a bit more in Cbus, I haven't looked into it depth but I suspect he is taking more pitches per AB compared to the past. I would assume that is his prime directive now, to work more counts, take more pitches and hopefully take more walks/balance the Ks better.
 
I've noticed Oscar striking out a bit more in Cbus, I haven't looked into it depth but I suspect he is taking more pitches per AB compared to the past. I would assume that is his prime directive now, to work more counts, take more pitches and hopefully take more walks/balance the Ks better.

He's seeing a few more pitches here and there, but not much of a difference in Oscar at the plate as far as plate discipline goes. A big reason why he isn't back up even when his numbers look good. He's still chasing pitches and getting himself out way too much.

Sometimes you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Making Oscar a more patient hitter also takes away from what he does well. He is a great ambush hitter early in counts or when counts are in his favor.
 
Arias fouls more pitches off than Jones and Benson.

By a wide margin.

And you know the beautiful thing about guys who have the plate discipline and hand eye skills to take pitches or foul them off consistent enough to work that deep into counts consistently?

Typically their contact rates improve with a little tweaking and maturity.
What is that margin?

Arias's contact rate is still below both Jones's and Benson's. So maybe he's fouling off pitches that others are putting in play which would increase both his K and BB rates but if he's more likely to swing at both balls and strikes than either of them and eventually makes more contact, then his BB's and K's should plummet.

It's hard to see him being a true talent elite BB guy unless he goes down some trajectory where he becomes a bona fide power hitter who continues to have contact troubles. And I guess that's possible but I don't think that's what he is now, hence unsustainable...

Edit: Just bookmarked this post to be able to track what his BB rate looks like going forward, I'll be curious to see results whether right or wrong.
 
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