2023 Season | Series #31 | Guardians @ Pirates | July 17-19, 2023

[BimboColesHair]

Arias's contact rate is still below both Jones's and Benson's. So maybe he's fouling off pitches that others are putting in play which would increase both his K and BB rates but if he's more likely to swing at both balls and strikes than either of them and eventually makes more contact, then his BB's and K's should plummet.

I don’t think his BB rate will plummet. It’ll come down a bit, but not plummet to where his on base skills are no longer a positive.

And that’s assuming he doesn’t start to drive the ball and do damage where teams start being careful with him, which they did during the sample we’re talking about and his BB rate stayed high while his K rate was coming down. He’s a guy who will gladly take his walks while also being aggressive. Weird combo.

I think over a wide, consistent sample size he settles around an 8-10% BB. He has a good eye. The numbers tell you that, and watching games and some of his takes just off corners tell you that. He’s always had a good eye, just never had a coach rein in some of the aggression to take more pitches until he got to Columbus.

These are the guys that scare the shit out of front offices if and when they have to move on from them, because they’re the guys who go elsewhere, their new team tweaks one thing that turns the foul balls into barreled balls in play that do damage and make you look bad.

 

[KluberSociety]

I don’t think his BB rate will plummet. It’ll come down a bit, but not plummet to where his on base skills are no longer a positive.

And that’s assuming he doesn’t start to drive the ball and do damage where teams start being careful with him, which they did during the sample we’re talking about and his BB rate stayed high while his K rate was coming down. He’s a guy who will gladly take his walks while also being aggressive. Weird combo.

I think over a wide, consistent sample size he settles around an 8-10% BB. He has a good eye. The numbers tell you that, and watching games and some of his takes just off corners tell you that. He’s always had a good eye, just never had a coach rein in some of the aggression to take more pitches until he got to Columbus.

These are the guys that scare the shit out of front offices if and when they have to move on from them, because they’re the guys who go elsewhere, their new team tweaks one thing that turns the foul balls into barreled balls in play that do damage and make you look bad.

Now I'm completely lost, I was saying he would settle in at about a 10% BB rate and thought the 12.7% was unsustainable, now you're saying 8-10%? I guess that's more of an endpoint projection so where do you think he's at now if he was to get every day PAs?

The reasoning all makes sense though.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Now I'm completely lost, I was saying he would settle in at about a 10% BB rate and thought the 12.7% was unsustainable, now you're saying 8-10%? I guess that's more of an endpoint projection so where do you think he's at now if he was to get every day PAs?

The reasoning all makes sense though.

I guess I’m misunderstanding what your definition of “plummeting” and “unsustainable” are, as a 2% dip to me isn’t plummeting nor is it unsustainable when compared to 12%. That’s one more or one less BB every 2 weeks for everyday players.

 

[KluberSociety]

I guess I’m misunderstanding what your definition of “plummeting” and “unsustainable” are, as a 2% dip to me isn’t plummeting nor is it unsustainable when compared to 12%. That’s one more or one less BB every 2 weeks for everyday players.

Plummeting is if he becomes a more consistent contact hitter, I think he'd be more like that 8%/22% or something of that nature. Maybe the word was too severe. But just for the rest of this year I think about 10% seems fair. Main reason why I pointed it out as unsustainable was because that's where some of that OBP/wRC+/OPS and he'd be losing 20ish points on that OBP just by going down to 10%.

 

[eChameleon]

7:50PM start.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Plummeting is if he becomes a more consistent contact hitter, I think he'd be more like that 8%/22% or something of that nature. Maybe the word was too severe. But just for the rest of this year I think about 10% seems fair. Main reason why I pointed it out as unsustainable was because that's where some of that OBP/wRC+/OPS and he'd be losing 20ish points on that OBP just by going down to 10%.

Plummeting makes it sound like he’s going to be Amed walking 3% of the time.

Part of his game is going to continue to be seeing a lot of pitches, even as the contact improves. That is a point of emphasis in Columbus right now. See as many pitches as you can until you get a mistake to drive.

He’s going to continue to be a high BB rate guy.

 

[Derek]

Just remember guys.

A month stretch for a young player where he was given a chance and he posts a .775 OPS, 116 wRC+, and was worth 0.3 WAR over that stretch = a guy who blew his chance.

A guy with a .653 OPS, 80 wRC+, worth -0.2 WAR = an important win now piece that gives us the best chance at winning this year.

Straight from the horses ass, I mean mouth.

The Arias thing baffles me. It’d be one thing if he lost playing time because he was slumping, but it was actually the opposite.

He lost playing time while doing relatively well, and that kickstarted a slump while playing sporadically.

 

[KluberSociety]

Plummeting makes it sound like he’s going to be Amed walking 3% of the time.

Part of his game is going to continue to be seeing a lot of pitches, even as the contact improves. That is a point of emphasis in Columbus right now. See as many pitches as you can until you get a mistake to drive.

He’s going to continue to be a high BB rate guy.

I mean you can read whatever you want into plummeting but I said the 10% early on in the discussion, lol. And unsustainable was clearly in the context of bottom line results he's put up so far and whether they would be expected to persist. So this whole thing just feels like a pointless discussion. Whatever.

 

[BimboColesHair]

The Arias thing baffles me. It’d be one thing if he lost playing time because he was slumping, but it was actually the opposite.

He lost playing time while doing relatively well, and that kickstarted a slump while playing sporadically.

Those numbers are his stats from the day we took Oscar away from Tito and told him to play Arias as much as he can (hence his public comments) until the end of the Twins series at the beginning of June. 75 plate appearances. By far the longest stretch of consistent ABs he’s had at the MLB level to this point of his career.

1 0-5 game from him where he admittedly struggled hard at the plate and that was all it took to wash that production away and end the chance he was getting.

There are a number of us who are baffled right now and have been with some of the management of certain players.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I mean you can read whatever you want into plummeting but I said the 10% early on in the discussion, lol. And unsustainable was clearly in the context of bottom line results he's put up so far and whether they would be expected to persist. So this whole thing just feels like a pointless discussion. Whatever.

It’s good discussion. Like I said, I think I just didn’t understand your context of “plummeting” and “unsustainable”.

Especially when combined with your very outwardly skepticism of Arias. Holds a much more negative connotation than I am sure you are meaning.

But at least you see where he can potentially go as a hitter, which is a step in the right direction.

It’s the same discussion we’ve been having on Jones and Benson while they were still here, just with a different player now. An OPS darling, a player I don’t think is your preferred style (more swing and miss, higher K rates, less balls in play), but these are guys your team needs to have a few of at the end of the day.

We’re seeing what a bunch of high contact rate, low swing and miss gets you right now. It ain’t much.

 

[33Y0]

Those numbers are his stats from the day we took Oscar away from Tito and told him to play Arias as much as he can (hence his public comments) until the end of the Twins series at the beginning of June. 75 plate appearances. By far the longest stretch of consistent ABs he’s has at the MLB level to this point of his career.

1 0-5 game from him where he admittedly struggled hard at the plate and that was all it took to wash that production away and end the chance he was getting.

There are a number of us who are baffled right now and have been with some of the management of certain players.

Not sure if you're allowed to answer or not, but what IS up with the management of some of these players this season? Arias, Freeman, even Bo... quite frankly, I don't get it. Even last year, we found plenty of playing time for Ernie freaking Clement and this year, god forbid any of the young guys get consistent playing time. What gives?

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Can’t wait to see how they lose THIS one…

 

[eChameleon]

Oh boy, are we gonna be befuddled by this rookie all night?

 

[MD13]

Those numbers are his stats from the day we took Oscar away from Tito and told him to play Arias as much as he can (hence his public comments) until the end of the Twins series at the beginning of June. 75 plate appearances. By far the longest stretch of consistent ABs he’s has at the MLB level to this point of his career.

1 0-5 game from him where he admittedly struggled hard at the plate and that was all it took to wash that production away and end the chance he was getting.

There are a number of us who are baffled right now and have been with some of the management of certain players.

I may be reading too far into this, but I assume the sentiment extends into the way he gives mediocre vets (specifically Amed, but even Straw with high leverage at bats, etc) as many chances as they need to work out of it, but the young guys are susceptible to benching at a whim? Obviously Freeman as well is falling into this trap.

 

[sportscoach]

Inexperience has hurt Curry to start... Hopefully he overcomes it...