2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[CalBuckeyeRob]

We're trying to platoon in right field but no one is cooperating.

Brennan is hitting .209 against right-handers. Laureano is 4-for-25 with 10 strikeouts against lefties. Floreal is hitting .148 against right-handers. Guardians' right-fielders are hitting .204 this season. They have shown some power, though, ranking 19th in slugging percentage and 17th in OPS (.661).

So if you go by OPS the production has been average. But only 10 RBI's from our right fielders in 29 games is pathetic.

I'm inclined to play Floreal every day and see if regular AB's will improve his contact rate and reduce his K's.

I think we are seeing what you get in Florial. He is a boom or bust hitter. He needs to play enough to see if there is enough production from the boom to counter the bust.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Somebody explain why our hitters are so bad with the bases empty.

Laureano is hitting .263/.716 with runners on. Not impressive, but not awful. But with the bases empty he's 3-for-33 with two walks.

Same with Brennan. With runners on it's .258/.681. With the bases empty he's hitting .182 with an OBP of .217.

Floreal is hitting .182 with the bases empty and .333 with runners on.

Jose is hitting .193 with the bases empty and an OBP of .220. No excuse for those numbers from a hitter with his talent. Gimenez is .164 and .233 with no one on. Freeman .163 and .255. Bo Naylor is hitting .190 with the bases empty but at least he draws some walks; his OBP is .320.

Kwan and Fry are by far the best with the bases empty with OBP's of .395 and .387. Surprisingly, Rocchio is third at .353, but he's hitting .111 with runners on. Rocchio is the opposite of most of his teammates.

Arias has also been surprisingly good with the bases empty; .290/.817 with a .333 OBP. And he's not bad with RISP at .286/.667.

I want to know why so many of these guys are so bad with the bases empty. The team on-base percentage with the bases empty is .295. With runners on it's .339 and with RISP it's .367.

I get that with the bases empty the defense can set up wherever it wants and the pitchers can pitch from a windup with no base runners distracting them and no need to speed up their delivery. But it seems like there should not be this huge gap between OBP with nobody on and OBP with runners on like we are seeing with a number of Guardians' hitters.

We need to get more runners on base when the bases are empty because this team hits so much better with runners on. Valaika should emphasize the importance of getting a runner on. Instead of trying for a solo home run, try to just get on.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Somebody explain why our hitters are so bad with the bases empty.

Laureano is hitting .263/.716 with runners on. Not impressive, but not awful. But with the bases empty he's 3-for-33 with two walks.

Same with Brennan. With runners on it's .258/.681. With the bases empty he's hitting .182 with an OBP of .217.

Floreal is hitting .182 with the bases empty and .333 with runners on.

Jose is hitting .193 with the bases empty and an OBP of .220. No excuse for those numbers from a hitter with his talent. Gimenez is .164 and .233 with no one on. Freeman .163 and .255. Bo Naylor is hitting .190 with the bases empty but at least he draws some walks; his OBP is .320.

Kwan and Fry are by far the best with the bases empty with OBP's of .395 and .387. Surprisingly, Rocchio is third at .353, but he's hitting .111 with runners on. Rocchio is the opposite of most of his teammates.

Arias has also been surprisingly good with the bases empty; .290/.817 with a .333 OBP. And he's not bad with RISP at .286/.667.

I want to know why so many of these guys are so bad with the bases empty. The team on-base percentage with the bases empty is .295. With runners on it's .339 and with RISP it's .367.

I get that with the bases empty the defense can set up wherever it wants and the pitchers can pitch from a windup with no base runners distracting them and no need to speed up their delivery. But it seems like there should not be this huge gap between OBP with nobody on and runners on like we are seeing with a number of Guardians' hitters.

We need to get more runners on base when the bases are empty because this team hits so much better with runners on. Valaika should emphasize the importance of getting a runner on. Instead of trying for a solo home run, try to just get on.

It may be as simple as pitchers are under more pressure with runners on so they make more bad pitches and/or that the defensive set-up is being impacted by runners on. But it certainly needs to improve.

 

[CDAV45]

Good Lord people. Why do you have to have answers right now and the small sample size of Florial as a ML hitter isn't going to tell you shit. The idea is that his AAA numbers begin to translate at some point. That happens quickly for very few, most need 1000 AB or more and many just never make it. All you're fucking doing is guessing and only looking at things from an analytical POV when it comes to developing players is a nothing burger. If they go down that path then it basically eliminates superior talented players that need more polish and favors mediocre players.

 

[CDAV45]

It may be as simple as pitchers are under more pressure with runners on so they make more bad pitches and/or that the defensive set-up is being impacted by runners on. But it certainly needs to improve.

That or maybe it has something to do with them being so young. Being selective and patience aren't typical characteristics of the young and inexperienced.

 

[PPark]

We're trying to platoon in right field but no one is cooperating.

Brennan is hitting .209 against right-handers. Laureano is 4-for-25 with 10 strikeouts against lefties. Floreal is hitting .148 against right-handers. Guardians' right-fielders are hitting .204 this season. They have shown some power, though, ranking 19th in slugging percentage and 17th in OPS (.661).

So if you go by OPS the production has been average. But only 10 RBI's from our right fielders in 29 games is pathetic.

I'm inclined to play Floreal every day and see if regular AB's will improve his contact rate and reduce his K's.

The data screams Brennan.

League average RF;

.242 .322 .401 with .295 BABIP and 40.8 Hard Hit%

Brennan
.213 .268 .387 with .217 BABIP and 47.6 Hard Hit %

Brennan’s expected( xBA, xOBP,xSLG)

.277 .323 .432

With some luck he’s better than league average.

 

[jmilo]

Good Lord people. Why do you have to have answers right now and the small sample size of Florial as a ML hitter isn't going to tell you shit. The idea is that his AAA numbers begin to translate at some point. That happens quickly for very few, most need 1000 AB or more and many just never make it. All you're fucking doing is guessing and only looking at things from an analytical POV when it comes to developing players is a nothing burger. If they go down that path then it basically eliminates superior talented players that need more polish and favors mediocre players.

With Kwan and Freeeman locking down LF and CF, there's quite a log jam in RF.

Brennan, Florial, Laureano are already here, with young guys looking to get their shot nipping at their heels.

We aren't going to be able to give every option the extended look that paints a clear picture, so we have to stare at the fuzzy pictures we get and make our best judgment calls.

 

[CDAV45]

With Kwan and Freeeman locking down LF and CF, there's quite a log jam in RF.

Brennan, Florial, Laureano are already here, with young guys looking to get their shot nipping at their heels.

We aren't going to be able to give every option the extended look that paints a clear picture, so we have to stare at the fuzzy pictures we get and make our best judgment calls.

I don't think Freeman has anything locked down just yet.

You don't pass up opportunities to guys that possibly have more to offer. Emphasis on possibly.

 

[jmilo]

I don't think Freeman has anything locked down just yet.

You don't pass up opportunities to guys that possibly have more to offer. Emphasis on possibly.

What's your solution?

 

[KluberSociety]

Freeman has been very good at CF but I still wouldn't rule him moving back to IF if OFs are able to push him there and our more true IFs sputter.

I think Kwan has effectively upgraded his approach. Previously he was too passive particularly early in the count. Early this year it felt like we were looking at more of a beta version, where he was chasing too much stuff, but I haven't seen him do that lately. He is both more aggressive in good situations, and having a generally good eye otherwise. His O-Swing rate is now actually lower than last year with a higher Z-Swing rate. That is true plate discipline - look at balls and swing at strikes.

 

[CDAV45]

What's your solution?

I started to add to my initial post to say that Freeman has done a pretty damn good job, but you had already responded so I'll reply here. He's certainly better than Straw, but being better than the worst hitter in the league is no measure. Tyler has some time to continue to show what he is capable of and I'm fine with that because there are no other options at this time. It's not like Brennan is mashing which could allow him to play CF and bring up Rodriguez or give Florial and Fry more AB. Florial has shown flashes, but nothing steady. Then again I don't know how he's supposed to show consistency when he isn't playing consistently.

If it were me, Kwan would be in CF. The corners would be occupied by any combination of Rodriguez, Florial, Brennan and Fry. It's too bad that Josh can't play a corner OF again which is why I wanted him to come into camp slimmer. Josh having some positional flexibility would be an enormous convenience.

 

[jmilo]

I started to add to my initial post to say that Freeman has done a pretty damn good job, but you had already responded so I'll reply here. He's certainly better than Straw, but being better than the worst hitter in the league is no measure. Tyler has some time to continue to show what he is capable of and I'm fine with that because there are no other options at this time. It's not like Brennan is mashing which could allow him to play CF and bring up Rodriguez or give Florial and Fry more AB. Florial has shown flashes, but nothing steady. Then again I don't know how he's supposed to show consistency when he isn't playing consistently.

If it were me, Kwan would be in CF. The corners would be occupied by any combination of Rodriguez, Florial, Brennan and Fry. It's too bad that Josh can't play a corner OF again which is why I wanted him to come into camp slimmer. Josh having some positional flexibility would be an enormous convenience.

So your solution is to eliminate Freeman.

I think that out of JRod, Florial, Brennan and Freeman, Tyler has the likeliest shot at becoming a solid major leaguer.

So, I guess that's something we disagree on. Let's see how it plays out.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Good Lord people. Why do you have to have answers right now and the small sample size of Florial as a ML hitter isn't going to tell you shit. The idea is that his AAA numbers begin to translate at some point. That happens quickly for very few, most need 1000 AB or more and many just never make it. All you're fucking doing is guessing and only looking at things from an analytical POV when it comes to developing players is a nothing burger. If they go down that path then it basically eliminates superior talented players that need more polish and favors mediocre players.

I apologize. I won't say anything else about Floreal until he has another 837 at-bats. If all goes well I might be able to say something relevant late next year or in sometime in 2026.

I'm not sure what you meant by saying that looking at things from an analytical point of view eliminates superior players and favors mediocre players, but I'll defer to your superior wisdom on that.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

It's May 1st - and the pressure is on.
It's on the FO I think.
Right now I see two issues that will need to be addressed by the FO soon.

1. We need another healthy SP - like yesterday. That could be Curry, or a veteran AAAA player that can battle and eat some innings. The other alternative would be to make a trade for a SP with a team that has had a poor start. I would be in favor of that option, depending on the names. I still think our 40-man is bloated and some players have earned a chance with some organization.

2. Speaking of opportunity,,, Kyle Manzardo is forcing the issue. Initially I thought we should wait for around Memorial Day, but I'm not so sure now. You can always use a good bat in the lineup. He's healthy, he's got confidence. Let's go.
He would have to share 1B/DH duties with Naylor. That's not too bad. But it also reduces the DH opportunities for Frye, Florial, and others. So, that's another reason to make a trade.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

If it were me, Kwan would be in CF. The corners would be occupied by any combination of Rodriguez, Florial, Brennan and Fry. It's too bad that Josh can't play a corner OF again which is why I wanted him to come into camp slimmer. Josh having some positional flexibility would be an enormous convenience.

That's not a bad idea. Manzardo is killing it in Columbus with six homers in his last 11 games. He started 5-for-28 but since then he's hitting .383 with 6 homers and 6 doubles in 60 AB's.

I was thinking how great it would be to put Manzardo at first base and move Josh back to RF, but with instructions to play deep and not to try to field any bloops. Well, it would be great for the offense, anyway.

I'm sure that's not an option but I agree it would be great if he could play RF. I don't think it's a question of his weight - he has a couple of stolen bases.

So the options are:

1. Stick with what we're doing and hope Brennan, Floreal, and Laureano can combine to hit better than .204 in right field going forward.

2. Bring up JRod and probably release Laureano. JRod is hitting .284/.898 in Columbus. Last year he hit .286/.897. Looks like he's plateaued to me even though he's only 24. He is hitting .364 against lefties, so that's something. Maybe he could be another David Fry?

3. Release Laureano and put Fry (.311/.917) in right every day. But Floreal is out of options and they need to find out about him seeing as how they gave up Cody Morris for him. I think he's shown enough in AAA and in flashes so far this season to merit an extended look.

4. Trade with the Orioles for a right fielder. See the next post.