2024 Season | Series #11 | Angels @ Guardians | May 3-5, 2024

[TxBuckeye]

First game I haven't gotten to see much of. Guess it was a good one to miss.

Anyway, how much is everyone willing to pay to have Manzardo playing here in May? The numbers are quite scary, esp if he plays as everybody hopes.

(These are made up numbers, probably underestimated.)

If Manzardo is called up after Super Two and plays well, he will play three years at minimum. He could get $5 mil in his first arby. $10 mil in his second. $15 mil in his third. In total we pay him $33 mil over six years.

If he is a Super Two, those numbers move up, and his fourth arby is $20 mil, a total of $52 mil. We could be paying $19 mil to watch Manzardo play in May.

I dont think those numbers are too far off.

Nails got $3.35 mil in his first arby based upon...

1100 PA
104 wRC+
36 HR
2.1 fWAR
One season in which he got over 279 PAs.

When Nails got a second full season and produced, he got $6.5 mil.

**********

A scary thought:

Because of his performance last year, Bibee will hit arby a year early.

Cal Quantrill got $5.550 mil this year for 572 innings and 6.3 fWAR. Bibee has 3.5 fWAR already. Winning early arby could cost us around $20 mil. If he performs well, it could be a whole lot more.

Because of our financial situation, early arby has a virtual effect of losing a year of control, because we can't afford to pay for the fourth arby. Instead of having a good player for six years, we can only have him five.

Thats what manipulating a players time clock means.

Do not give a shit. Play your best players.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Also to be clear, it’s the concept of “losing” Manzardo a year early is further away than 2028.

Even if Manzardo came up this year from Opening Day and absolutely crushed it, the absolute earliest he could get into unrestricted free agency would still not be until after the 2030 season ended.

“We are choosing to keep a good hitter in the minors for half of 2024 because we would like to retain him through 2031 instead of losing him in 2030” is just such defeatist loser bullshit and I truly despise that we’ve been trained to think about it like that.

Do you know what else could happen?

That player could actually help the team win games in 2024 and then the team could either give him a contract extension before he ever reaches free agency or they could just sign him into a new contract after the 2030 season.

It’s just garbage and it makes me hate baseball in a lot of ways.

Valid point of view. But I plan on being a Guardians' fan in 2031 and if Manzardo is a .300/30/100 guy in 2030 I want him around for another year. I'm all about giving up a little now to get a lot later, but I respect the other point of view.

Also, Bimbo pointed out that making a young player with under 1,000 at-bats a DH doesn't work. So Manzardo would play first base almost every day and Naylor would DH, which would screw up what they're doing now with having the DH position alternate among various regulars so they can get a day off while keeping their bat in the lineup.

But that's a problem they'll have to deal with eventually unless Naylor is traded, which could very well happen after this season.

 

[sportscoach]

Valid point of view. But I plan on being a Guardians' fan in 2031 and if Manzardo is a .300/30/100 guy in 2030 I want him around for another year. I'm all about giving up a little now to get a lot later, but I respect the other point of view.

Also, Bimbo pointed out that making a young player with under 1,000 at-bats a DH doesn't work. So Manzardo would play first base almost every day and Naylor would DH, which would screw up what they're doing now with having the DH position alternate among various regulars so they can get a day off while keeping their bat in the lineup.

But that's a problem they'll have to deal with eventually unless Naylor is traded, which could very well happen after this season.

Naylor could also get extended... We just don't know...

Right now, they also want to see what they have in Rocchio, Arias, Brennan, Florial etc and we can't exactly do that with Manzardo up... He's gonna get MLB time this season, but it likely won't be enough time for him to lose his rookie status as long as injuries don't happen...

 

[CDAV45]

I mean the Shapiro/Antonetti tree is in like at least 20%+ of the front offices of baseball...

Are you expecting me to debate that? If you look back as far as you like you'll find how much I appreciate how this organization is ran. I just don't like the reference to the record as some sort of measuring stick without context.

 

[CATS44]

Do not give a shit. Play your best players.

You won't have a competitive team for very long if you burn thru future money you dont have.

There is also the consideration that very few true rookies are instantly productive when they get to MLB. I think I mentioned this earlier, but once again...weve only had two position prospects in the past decade that hit the ground running...Lindor and Kwan.

If Manzardo comes up now and doesn't produce, we will basically be paying big bucks down the road for nothing today. But he comes up after Super Two and doesn't produce, we are merely paying a pro rated minimum.

If you still insist that Manzardo is an instant sure thing, and a sure fire instant improvement over what we have, because some folks rate him highly, look back at other instant sure things, like Francisco Mejia ( ranked as high as #5), Matt Laporta (#23), Andy Marte (#9), Amed Rosario (#5).

Manzardo isn't ranked anywhere near those four (#37).

You may not give a rats a** about paying premium bucks for a rookie's on the job training, but I do.

It isnt just about money, it is about recieving absolute top value for what you spend.

 

[BimboColesHair]

If you still insist that Manzardo is an instant sure thing, and a sure fire instant improvement over what we have, because some folks rate him highly, look back at other instant sure things, like Francisco Mejia ( ranked as high as #5), Matt Laporta (#23), Andy Marte (#9), Amed Rosario (#5).

You may not give a rats a** about paying premium bucks for a rookie's on the job training, but I do.

Brayan Rocchio (13th)

 

[CDAV45]

You won't have a competitive team for very long if you burn thru future money you dont have.

There is also the consideration that very few true rookies are instantly productive when they get to MLB. I think I mentioned this earlier, but once again...weve only had two position prospects in the past decade that hit the ground running...Lindor and Kwan.

If Manzardo comes up now and doesn't produce, we will basically be paying big bucks down the road for nothing today. But he comes up after Super Two and doesn't produce, we are merely paying a pro rated minimum.

If you still insist that Manzardo is an instant sure thing, and a sure fire instant improvement over what we have, because some folks rate him highly, look back at other instant sure things, like Francisco Mejia ( ranked as high as #5), Matt Laporta (#23), Andy Marte (#9), Amed Rosario (#5).

Manzardo isn't ranked anywhere near those four (#37).

You may not give a rats a** about paying premium bucks for a rookie's on the job training, but I do.

It isnt just about money, it is about recieving absolute top value for what you spend.

All of Brennan, Bibee, Allen, Williams and a couple of others hit the ground running as well. I would agree that isn't the most likely outcome, but if you know that the team's competitive window will require your better prospects contributing wouldn't it be better to iron out the wrinkles asap?

I don't think any of us are privy to the financials or what Dolan might be willing to do if this team looks like a real contender. There's just too many questions right now and we haven't even seen any of Manzardo, Rodriguez, Brito, DeLauter or Cantillo to name a few.

Just because some have failed doesn't mean you stop treading down that path. It's the only way the Cleveland Guardians will ever have a WS contending team. I think we can all agree that they aren't going to go out and buy that type of roster.

I'd argue the sustainability relies more on well constructed trades of valuable players nearing FA and clearly not willing to accept the extension offer on the table. I understand the reluctancy toward that idea, but it is definitely what this organization needs to do.

 

[Criznit]

Heck even Oscar Mercado had a very solid rookie season...

But if you looked under the hood, there were reasons a lot of us were skeptical about his future.

And the rest is history.

 

[CDAV45]

Valid point of view. But I plan on being a Guardians' fan in 2031 and if Manzardo is a .300/30/100 guy in 2030 I want him around for another year. I'm all about giving up a little now to get a lot later, but I respect the other point of view.

Also, Bimbo pointed out that making a young player with under 1,000 at-bats a DH doesn't work. So Manzardo would play first base almost every day and Naylor would DH, which would screw up what they're doing now with having the DH position alternate among various regulars so they can get a day off while keeping their bat in the lineup.

But that's a problem they'll have to deal with eventually unless Naylor is traded, which could very well happen after this season.

Having such little margin for error makes the FO decisions even more difficult/demanding. If Josh is going to continue to be the hitter/player he currently is then I'm all for an extension, but I've voiced my opinion on the risk of his longevity. The idea of keeping Josh and incorporating Manzardo into the lineup gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. Signing Josh to a lengthy extension would make me nervous.

I can understand the argument for Manzardo's promotion, but I also see the flip side as well. I'm not so sure they would be concerned with the extra year if they had more insight on how the season will play out.

They could do what the Brewers did with Chourio. That would give them and Manzardo financial security in a sense. Basically buy out his arbitration years and pay him more up front.

 

[sportscoach]

We got a different lineup today! Let's see how this works out!

Plus I will be at the game with my lucky pink Boxers! We haven't lost a game I have worn them too!

 

[Criznit]

View attachment 20023

We got a different lineup today! Let's see how this works out!

Plus I will be at the game with my lucky pink Boxers! We haven't lost a game I have worn them too!

A lineup like this makes you realize how much value Josh Naylor contributes. He's turned into glue rather quickly.

 

[southernflyer]

View attachment 20023

We got a different lineup today! Let's see how this works out!

Plus I will be at the game with my lucky pink Boxers! We haven't lost a game I have worn them too!

With Josh getting the day off today, I wonder if Fry will catch tomorrow giving Bo the day off, Arias at 2B or 3B giving either Andres or Jose Sunday off or DH role.

 

[TxBuckeye]

You won't have a competitive team for very long if you burn thru future money you dont have.

And you'll constantly be saying we are playing for next year the way we are going.

 

[KluberSociety]

View attachment 20023

We got a different lineup today! Let's see how this works out!

Plus I will be at the game with my lucky pink Boxers! We haven't lost a game I have worn them too!

We must continue the Cleveland tradition of putting bad hitters in the most important spot in the lineup!

 

[CATS44]

Brayan Rocchio (13th)

Thats a solid point, if you believe in Keith Law...lol. I dont.

Among the Big Three, Rocchios best ranking is 47th.

But the point is that prospects, no matter how highly rated, seldom make a huge and lasting impact when they first arrive. If they end up being a Super Two, you've paid a lot for less than a season of not much.

A secondary thought...if you are going to pay for a Super Two, it doesnt make sense if he doesn't play nearly every day.