2024 Season | Series #6 | Guardians @ Red Sox | April 15-18, 2024

[sportscoach]

Ok, I understand Clase is a ground ball guy, but that is exactly why I don't like him closing in a one run inning. Batters make contact and shit happens.. I want that old school fireballer that's going to give me three outs in a 2-1 game.

I am willing to learn if some stathead can 'splain that grounballers are better in close games.. but that's not what my casual fan brain thinks right now..

I get what you are saying, but where else would you use him? You cannot avoid contact at all though I do agree he should always be in with bases empty IF possible...

 

[Otsego Mar]

CdAv, in my opinion, just does not like Kwan and he will die on that hill of hatred lol.

 

[KluberSociety]

CdAv, in my opinion, just does not like Kwan and he will die on that hill of hatred lol.

He just likes power hitters, particularly at certain positions like LF, everything else is secondary.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I get what you are saying, but I said "Clase isn't going anywhere, I think it would mentally sink this team" He took part of my context rather than the whole thing...

This team is rolling and he has been trying to trade Kwan and Clase for max value while cutting Hedges/trading him for anything... I get the point of doing that on paper, but on paper, means little to nothing since it never includes the mental/chemistry side of the game.

It makes no sense to listen to any offers on any of the main nucleus of guys whatsoever...

We brought in Hedges to be a captain/glue to this team. We had Bethancourt, who career wise is a way better hitter and still a plus defender, and on paper, is the guy to keep between the two. Yet we went and spent 3 million more for Hedges... This FO isn't going to do that unless they 100% felt they needed him...

Kwan is a main cog of this team, we lose a lot of games without him at the top of the lineup. I get we lack some power in the OF, and traditional LF is a power spot, but he's an All-Star in his position in 24...

Clase I feel like is fine as a closer, but IF we move him, the return better be amazing plus with Stephan out, who is our closer? Aleman, Walters etc are still in the minors... Gaddis is learning a new role (and doing extremely well) but it's still a new role. Smith and Herrin have some stuff, but haven't always been known for command, so maybe not a closer in a sense...

We cannot afford to trade Clase IF we are contending because it would send the wrong message to the team. IF anything we are going to go add a veteran SP like a Blackblurn or OF like Taylor Ward. Antonetti is going to shuffle (Aka Beede, Aviles etc) the end of the bench to see IF we can get better that way until the trade deadline and IF we are in contention, then go upgrade and not in contention, he will listen to Clase offers, but while we are in contention, we aren't gonna be moving or even listening to Clase offers right now in a sense..

This is what I'm asking for - reasoned, fact-based analysis to support your POV.

I think we will always have posters who make the argument that we should sell high on a good player because we have somebody (or somebodies) coming up that can take his spot while we use the trade to upgrade another area. Or because the guy has an expiring contract and has outpriced himself here. Heck, I do it all the time.

Those are valid arguments. If someone disagrees - make the opposing argument respectfully. Don't be dismissive or rude, or presume you know what the front office is thinking. I'm speaking in general here, not to any specific poster.

 

[CDAV45]

I mean look at last year for goodness sake.

That team was only a “contender” in the loosest sense of the word in the worst division in baseball, but things basically fell apart immediately upon them selling while faux contending for a division title.

Imagine how damaging it would be for the clubhouse if they traded a multi time all-star away while they’re actually winning at a huge clip.

Can’t happen realistically.

It depends on what is added. If you're subtracting from the big league club and adding nothing to it then sure, what you say is quite possibly true. On the other hand, if they add someone like Hurt and/or Ryan into the mix and solidify the rotation for years then the vibes should be just fine.

 

[CATS44]

Lively has no options so he has to stay up...

If so...and it looks like you are correct...it means that one very effective pitcher, in addition to Beede, is going to have to be sent down. It either has to be Curry or a reliever.

Of course, there could be a phantom injury pop up, but that doesn't change the fact that it will be a swap of Lively for a likely better pitcher.

Or, the FO could swallow Lively's $750,000 contract, and hope that he doesn't get picked up by somebody else.

******

The angst over Barlow is akin to all the complaints about guys like Shaw and Eric Plunk...and Bob Wickham.

Like all three, Barlow has been a very good reliever for a long time. But he cant throw a ball thru a wall, the kiss of death for fan support in Cleveland.

Barlow Ks batters and induces ground-balls, while not allowing balls to leave the park. Thats a terrific combination. Over the last three years, he is the 12th ranked reliever by fWAR in MLB. Over the last two, he ranks 35th.

He also has the high leverage experience that a very young bullpen needs, with an emphasis on experience.

Presently, he is walking too many batters, but that applies to seemingly every pitcher on the roster.

It's early. Its been fun. While there have been lots of tense situations, they are nothing like the stretch run in a pennant race. Everybody is having success. But success in April is not the test.

The test is finding consistent success in September AFTER you have overcome adversity.

Barlow has been there, done that. Thats why the FO brought him in.

 

[CDAV45]

CdAv, in my opinion, just does not like Kwan and he will die on that hill of hatred lol.

How does anyone "not like Kwan"? I've stated numerous times that it's the accumulative effect. If you want Kwan in LF that's fine because he's one of the best lead off men in MLB, but your CF and your RF better be able to mash.

Listen, I've done the research. I went back 25+ yrs and the only team to win a WS that wasn't in the top 6 in power was the Cardinals I believe and they were still top 10. Look at the offense now. You're getting power in spots that had very little the last few seasons and the difference is exponential. Even better news is that there is more coming.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Hoynes agrees with me about Clase being better suited to start an inning with nobody on than an extra inning with a ghost runner.

One thing keeps being emphasized in MLB’s automatic-runner-on- second-base era. It is critical for a pitcher to have strikeout stuff from the 10th inning on because it’s just too easy for a team to score the runner from second base. Emmanuel Clase was throwing over 100 mph in the 10th inning Tuesday night, but he didn’t register a strikeout as Boston used a ground out and sacrifice fly to tie the game. In the 11th, Scott Barlow retired the side with two strikeouts to strand the automatic runner and save Cleveland’s win.

If I were the manager, Clase would still pitch the 9th if we have a lead. If it's tied going into the 9th like last night, use Clase to get us to extras. If he comes on in the 9th and gives up a couple of ground balls that find holes, he can still pitch a scoreless inning. But with a runner starting at second it's much harder for him.

To be fair, the sac fly he gave up was hit by Kevin Wong, who destroys Cleveland pitching and is hitting .355 right now. Clase got him on a routine fly to right. Wong was 2-for-4 with 3 RBI's last night.

The Guardians were 7-for-19 with RISP last night; the Sox were 1-for-11. The Guardians are hitting .311 with RISP. At some point they've got to start regressing to the mean. At least I assume they will.

Last night the Guardians had 5 RBI's with two strikes on the batter; Arias' single, Jose's sac fly and single, and Florial's single. They've been outstanding at two strike hitting so far.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

How does anyone "not like Kwan"? I've stated numerous times that it's the accumulative effect. If you want Kwan in LF that's fine because he's one of the best lead off men in MLB, but your CF and your RF better be able to mash.

Listen, I've done the research. I went back 25+ yrs and the only team to win a WS that wasn't in the top 6 in power was the Cardinals I believe and they were still top 10. Look at the offense now. You're getting power in spots that had very little the last few seasons and the difference is exponential. Even better news is that there is more coming.

Yes, there is more power coming and some of it is coming from Kwan. His slugging percentage is .474, up from .400 and .370 his first two seasons. Wait til the weather warms up - he might get to .500.

By the way, if you're getting home runs from your catcher, middle infielders (and corner infielders, of course), you don't need as many home runs from the outfielders. Teams that are getting few home runs from their catchers and middle infielders need their corner OF's to hit the long ball. But with Naylor, Fry, Gimenez, and possibly Arias at those positions we can get away with a left fielder that hits 10 home runs if his OBP is high.

 

[CBBI]

Clase didn't do anything wrong last night IMO.

He faced two batters, overwhelmed them both, and "blew" a save.

Weak ground ball with a .080 xBA and a lazy flyball with a .020 xBA and the run scored anyway.

 

[CDAV45]

Yes, there is more power coming and some of it is coming from Kwan. His slugging percentage is .474, up from .400 and .370 his first two seasons. Wait til the weather warms up - he might get to .500.

By the way, if you're getting home runs from your catcher, middle infielders (and corner infielders, of course), you don't need as many home runs from the outfielders. Teams that are getting few home runs from their catchers and middle infielders need their corner OF's to hit the long ball. But with Naylor, Fry, Gimenez, and possibly Arias at those positions we can get away with a left fielder that hits 10 home runs if his OBP is high.

Pretty much what I was saying. It's cumulative and it doesn't matter where the power is coming from as long as it is there.

 

[sportscoach]

Clase didn't do anything wrong last night IMO.

He faced two batters, overwhelmed them both, and "blew" a save.

Weak ground ball with a .080 xBA and a lazy flyball with a .020 xBA and the run scored anyway.

That's why I don't like the ghost runner rule... I am not sure if it's truly saving innings or not but gives a huge advantage to the home team for sure...

(Aka I wonder what the win-loss is from home and away in the extra innings...)

 

[sportscoach]

Pretty much what I was saying. It's cumulative and it doesn't matter where the power is coming from as long as it is there.

Problem is Cleveland focused on pure contact for maybe too long... Now they have been trying to add power to the mix (Aka Reyes, OGonz extra) but so far its not working.

I sincerely think Kwan isn't available and until the trade deadline they are gonna give the current group of young players the run way.

IF we are still playing this well I think they will try to add a Castellanos in a sense... I think it will be more of a Jay Bruce type of add than Miller though, in the sense of style of trade, but I can see them putting a lot into someone IF they have team control...

 

[CATS44]

I dont feel that the org focused overly much on contact. They focused on finding kids with a solid hitting foundation...understanding that power comes later.

Then they tried to fill holes with guys that supposedly had power, but no foundation. They compounded a short term problem by waiting too long to make decisions on their prospects, thereby losing trade value.

The one youngster they acquired with power AND a solid contact foundation was Josh Naylor, and that worked out well. To be fair, they learned their lesson, and have acquired two kids with both in Delauter and Manzardo. (Manzardo keeps piling up homers and doubles, defying all claims that he doesn't have power.)

What our history should have taught us is that if we want power, it should come with a foundation of contact. Those that do, produce.

Thome
Belle
Manny Being Manny
Grady
Pronk
VMart
Santana
Nails

Those that don't, don't.

Bradley
Zimmer
SpongeBob
Franmil
Karim Garcia
Shane Spencer
A whole host of former Tribe draft picks/top prospects with supposed power

Some big MiLB terrors with big home run numbers show up and for a month, or half season, or even an entire season pound unsuspecting MLB pitching, but then crash and burn.

Remember Aristedes Aquino?

Now look at these lists. Who on those lists most resemble Delauter and Manzardo?

Who on those lists most resemble Valera, Noel, Planez, Rodriguez?

**********

On a completely different topic, and just for fun, I like to look at some of the daily projections from BR, PECOTA, and fangraphs. Just for fun, because they have very little value.

Today fangraphs projects this...

Cleveland 81-81
Minnesota 81-81
Kansas City 81-81
Detroit 80-82

 

[Tondo]

Clase didn't do anything wrong last night IMO.

He faced two batters, overwhelmed them both, and "blew" a save.

Weak ground ball with a .080 xBA and a lazy flyball with a .020 xBA and the run scored anyway.

Shouldn't count as a blown SV with ghost runner scoring?