23 Offseason - Other Team Needs and Actions

[petes999]

Hypothetically, moving O'Hoppe only occurs by the Angels when they bite the bullet and move Ohtani.. like to the Jays for Moreno and Ryu (who signs an extension before the deal).. leaving the Angels with the two Guardian pitchers and Nolan Jones at 1B, the best C prospect (Moreno) and Orelvis Martinez for their middle infield void..... This is the kind of move an "Angels" FO does to move the need in the SoCal basin..

Thoughts?

Never really thought of Ohtani to Toronto (need to overcome some high tax issues but same with NY and Cali). Yet, if Toronto does do the deal, they will have an amazing roster on both sides of the plate/mound if it only costs Moreno.

This offseason will be held up by Judge and Ohtani. A move by any one of these is a shock wave through the competitive landscape.

 

[petes999]

Arizona D-Backs 74-88 (FG #6 system)

2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs

2024 Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Depth Charts updated daily with the latest transactions, roster moves, injury list, lineups, probable starting pitchers, and minor league players.

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Bullpen, right-handed bat, rotation help all high on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazenâs to-do list

“I’m tired of being the young team,” Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen said when addressing off-season needs. “I want to be the winning team.”

www.azcentral.com

You may look at Arizona’s record and say they should have a fire sale. However, they will benefit greatly by the more balanced schedule which may give them an added boost on top of tirheir 22 win improvement over last year. They had one of the worst in-division records this year with 29-47 (18 under) but 14 under in total; therefore, should get a few more wins next year as well. Of course, they got Walker and Kelly who will be free agents in 2 years. However, Arizona is not necessarily Guardians with a need to sell …sell …sell. They did extend Marte back in March versus trading. But, as us Guardians fans would say, if they cannot beat out Padres, Giants and Dodgers, should they just restock and comeback stronger? However, Hazen the GM said “I’m tired of being the young team, I want to be the winning team.” But, actions will speak louder than words.

Biggest need is pitching (starters and relievers). They can also use a right-handed bat as per AZCentral .. Among the young outfielders the club has are Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Pavin Smith. All are left-handed hitters, and the Diamondbacks also have Dominic Fletcher and Dominic Canzone, among others, who performed well in Triple-A this season. They, too, are left-handed.

Their GM has hinted at internal options for SP like allow their prospects (like Pfaadt) to come up and fill out their starting staff (and some may be converted to relievers) and he also wants more offensive production from their catching position (for all those who want Kelly). And, if Bumgarner and his 6.50 ERA in 2nd half is a Bum …. They will want someone to help take his 2-year $37 million contract (good luck).

Per FG - Some of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitching prospects will begin to arrive next year, as Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, and Tommy Henry all are in line for a 40-man spot (and since the article have been added). They have two December 2022 pitchers currently at High-A — Conor Grammes and Justin Martinez — who are each returning from injury and have shown really nasty late-inning bullpen stuff in the past. If either of them looks to be in peak form, they’ll be interesting 40-man decisions for the D-backs. Arizona also has a thicc upper-level outfield contingent in compact catalyst Jorge Barrosa, corner platoon type Dominic Canzone, and 23-year-old power breakout guy Leandro Cedeno, while 21-year-old toolshed Wilderd Patino has had a bounce-back year at High-A and is Rule 5 eligible this offseason.

Rule 5 – They are sitting at 44 players with Kennedy and Davies both have club options (Kennedy at $4.5 mill is most at risk). And, there are some NTCs including our beloved Luplow. Yet, do they want to trim so far to select someone is the questions (another Rule 5 borderline case); however, their need for relief pitchers is what Rule 5 is usually about.

BTV NTC— Jordan Luplow, Corbin Martin, Keynan Middleton, Reyes Moronta, Sean Poppen, Caleb Smith, Pavin Smith, Taylor Widener
What can Guardians use? Of course if they are selling any of Walker, Kelly or Varsho, the Guardians are listening. However, Varsho still has 4 year till free agency – thus no need for them to trade unless it brings another MLB ready top prospect back to fill other needs. They do have those lefty relievers the SC wants in Mantiply and a guy they picked up for nothing in Nelson. Yet, both fill a desperate need in the pen and it is just creating a bigger problem as they lost 42 games that they were tied or leading in 6th inning. Their GM does though note he wants more high-leverage guys who can strike guys out. So, DeSantos maybe appealing.

In whatever trades they do, Arizona will want top prospects as even though they have a deep system it is light on the top (Cleveland goes 19 deep with 45 FV and Arizona is only 12 and they only have 4-5 Top 100 prospects – 2 of whom are about to graduate).

 

[Gson]

Never really thought of Ohtani to Toronto (need to overcome some high tax issues but same with NY and Cali). Yet, if Toronto does do the deal, they will have an amazing roster on both sides of the plate/mound if it only costs Moreno.

This offseason will be held up by Judge and Ohtani. A move by any one of these is a shock wave through the competitive landscape.

I had Ryu, but removed him for Orelvis Martinez.. Ryu has one year remaining on his contract..even then, he won't pitch at the ML level until the ASG.. FYI...

Agree that Judge/Potential Ohtani "deals" will impede what should be an active hot stove season..

 

[sportscoach]

I had Ryu, but removed him for Orelvis Martinez.. Ryu has one year remaining on his contract..even then, he won't pitch at the ML level until the ASG.. FYI...

Agree that Judge/Potential Ohtani "deals" will impede what should be an active hot stove season..

Ohtani I think could end up with the Dodgers... They have the assets to get him plus extend him.

This Hot Stove has guys like Trea Turner, Judge etc in Free Agency... There will be some money spent! Antonetti needs to find a way to get Judge to Cleveland! I think we win it all if that happens lol

 

[petes999]

Chicago Cubs 74-88 (FG #5 system)

What do you know, their FO have promised to be open the pocketbook for FAs which have fans drooling over possibility of Judge or at least 1 of the big 4 SS or Rondon. AND, they are even decreasing ticket prices by 5%. What kind of owners do that? Not, the Guardians for sure. They want to compete next year and their 39-31 record for the 2nd half backs it up as being very possible. Yet first, with the roster sitting at 43 (with a mutual option on Smyly), they will need to cut a few players to get down to add 4-5 spots to add their prospects. Thus, this is another area where they probably won’t take a selection as they are also going to look at the FA market to do their rebuild. Per FG,

Must-Add Prospects: Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Chase Strumpf, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson
Current 40-man Fringe: Narciso Crook, Alfonso Rivas, Frank Schwindel, Michael Hermosillo, Mark Leiter Jr., Anderson Espinoza, Alexander Vizcaíno (Restricted List)

Prospects on the Fringe: Eury Ramos, Bryce Ball, Yovanny Cruz, Richard Gallardo, Yohendrick Pinango, Danis Correa, Chris Clarke, Cayne Ueckert
BTV NTC – Alec Mills, Franmil Reyes, Rowan Wick
(after a quick start in Wrigley by Reyes .273/.813 in Aug, he finished Sept/Oct with .193/.558)

Biggest Need – Looking for SP (maybe Rondon), SS (by moving Hoerner to 2nd) and 1B (Abreu?). This is a quick rebuild by looking at the FA market including the big 4 SS(s).

Who would the Guardians want? Once upon a time, us fans were looking at Happ. Yet, with Kwan a fixture at LF and one more year till he is a FA, I think we can move on. I assume we would want Contreras but it sounds like Cubs will give him a Qualifying offer and thus move the financial package needed to get him out of our range. If we were not in playoff contention, I would look at Amaya as he was added in Nov 2019 for Rule 5 and thus is out of options (unless granted an extra year). However, with all the injuries, he would need some time to adjust to MLB (thus not really for us).

I did see a quick article (SI minor league team post) from a fan thinking that they have a chance at a Bieber trade. I just don’t think the Cubs system is strong enough to have what it will take (star player(s) who can help immediately). Davis was injured last year. A bunch of A level OF prospects and no standout pitching prospects to give back in return … best is what Wicks or Wesneski?

Could the Chicago Cubs Trade For Shane Bieber?

With the Chicago Cubs in need of an arm for the top of the rotation, could the team attempt to pry Shane Bieber away from the Cleveland Guardians?

www.si.com

 

[sportscoach]

@petes999

Cardinals and Dodgers have a lot better fire power for a Bieber deal, so I agree I dont see the Cubs having a chance for Bieber...

 

[Gson]

Chicago Cubs 74-88 (FG #5 system)

What do you know, their FO have promised to be open the pocketbook for FAs which have fans drooling over possibility of Judge or at least 1 of the big 4 SS or Rondon. AND, they are even decreasing ticket prices by 5%. What kind of owners do that? Not, the Guardians for sure. They want to compete next year and their 39-31 record for the 2nd half backs it up as being very possible. Yet first, with the roster sitting at 43 (with a mutual option on Smyly), they will need to cut a few players to get down to add 4-5 spots to add their prospects. Thus, this is another area where they probably won’t take a selection as they are also going to look at the FA market to do their rebuild. Per FG,

Must-Add Prospects: Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Chase Strumpf, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson
Current 40-man Fringe: Narciso Crook, Alfonso Rivas, Frank Schwindel, Michael Hermosillo, Mark Leiter Jr., Anderson Espinoza, Alexander Vizcaíno (Restricted List)

Prospects on the Fringe: Eury Ramos, Bryce Ball, Yovanny Cruz, Richard Gallardo, Yohendrick Pinango, Danis Correa, Chris Clarke, Cayne Ueckert
BTV NTC – Alec Mills, Franmil Reyes, Rowan Wick
(after a quick start in Wrigley by Reyes .273/.813 in Aug, he finished Sept/Oct with .193/.558)

Biggest Need – Looking for SP (maybe Rondon), SS (by moving Hoerner to 2nd) and 1B (Abreu?). This is a quick rebuild by looking at the FA market including the big 4 SS(s).

Who would the Guardians want? Once upon a time, us fans were looking at Happ. Yet, with Kwan a fixture at LF and one more year till he is a FA, I think we can move on. I assume we would want Contreras but it sounds like Cubs will give him a Qualifying offer and thus move the financial package needed to get him out of our range. If we were not in playoff contention, I would look at Amaya as he was added in Nov 2019 for Rule 5 and thus is out of options (unless granted an extra year). However, with all the injuries, he would need some time to adjust to MLB (thus not really for us).

I did see a quick article (SI minor league team post) from a fan thinking that they have a chance at a Bieber trade. I just don’t think the Cubs system is strong enough to have what it will take (star player(s) who can help immediately). Davis was injured last year. A bunch of A level OF prospects and no standout pitching prospects to give back in return … best is what Wicks or Wesneski?

Could the Chicago Cubs Trade For Shane Bieber?

With the Chicago Cubs in need of an arm for the top of the rotation, could the team attempt to pry Shane Bieber away from the Cleveland Guardians?

www.si.com

The Cubs system, top to bottom is train wreck.. Guys that should be advancing are either hurt or have gotten to the end of their service time allotment with the Flubs.. There are, however, some gems that might be of interest.. but, before those gems are revealed..

Bieber to the Cubs only happens if there is a third team supplying what the Guardians see as equal value or future superior value.. A direct Bieber to the Cubs deal just doesn't make sense..

The gems that could be/should be considered are three fold:

Eddie Howard: He's a very young SS, but, has perhaps theee best glove I've ever seen.. He'd push every prospect and player off the SS spot if he was with the Guardians.. His hitting.. is not ML quality.. but, the tools to develop into an average hitter are there.. Eddie Howard's ticket the Show begin and end with what he does with the leather..

Nazier Mule: Is a guy I liked in the 2022 draft.. Huge arm.. incredible athleticism.. a Shohei Ohtani level of talent as a position player (SS) and as a pitcher.. The Cubs have decided pitching only.. and that might be his best chance at a long career.. imho, Nazier as a CF'er/SS/c-OF'er for a position and as a back of the pen RP would be his best path to a spot in the major leagues...

Cade Horton: Defines what an SP prospect is supposed to be.. He throws everything hard.. and everything moves.. His one feel pitch, a fading change up.. needs some time.. but he'd have two or three years before he'd even need to be rostered.. Otherwise, he's shown (inconsistently) that he can throw strikes with quality pitches (FB/SL combination is killer) and is destined to be a MOR/FOR SP at the ML level..

Thoughts?..

 

[Criznit]

Thanks for doing this Pete, good stuff.

 

[Criznit]

On a major league level, we don't seem to match well with the Cubs. It sounds like we're both looking for a RH 1B power type and unless their interest in Amed is extreme for some reason, I don't see much of a direct fit on any level.

 

[petes999]

The Cubs system, top to bottom is train wreck.. Guys that should be advancing are either hurt or have gotten to the end of their service time allotment with the Flubs.. There are, however, some gems that might be of interest.. but, before those gems are revealed..

Bieber to the Cubs only happens if there is a third team supplying what the Guardians see as equal value or future superior value.. A direct Bieber to the Cubs deal just doesn't make sense..

The gems that could be/should be considered are three fold:

Eddie Howard: He's a very young SS, but, has perhaps theee best glove I've ever seen.. He'd push every prospect and player off the SS spot if he was with the Guardians.. His hitting.. is not ML quality.. but, the tools to develop into an average hitter are there.. Eddie Howard's ticket the Show begin and end with what he does with the leather..

Nazier Mule: Is a guy I liked in the 2022 draft.. Huge arm.. incredible athleticism.. a Shohei Ohtani level of talent as a position player (SS) and as a pitcher.. The Cubs have decided pitching only.. and that might be his best chance at a long career.. imho, Nazier as a CF'er/SS/c-OF'er for a position and as a back of the pen RP would be his best path to a spot in the major leagues...

Cade Horton: Defines what an SP prospect is supposed to be.. He throws everything hard.. and everything moves.. His one feel pitch, a fading change up.. needs some time.. but he'd have two or three years before he'd even need to be rostered.. Otherwise, he's shown (inconsistently) that he can throw strikes with quality pitches (FB/SL combination is killer) and is destined to be a MOR/FOR SP at the ML level..

Thoughts?..

Interesting names, especially Mule. Maybe some guys to look at if the Cubs are interested in Plesac. However, just posted on the minor league thread a reminder from CleGuardPro (a tweet from week or so ago) of our backlog of starting pitching (of course need relievers -- but they are basically our blocked starters). But, basically, Cleveland is focused on developing those 90-93 mph starters and getting a few more mph out of them and when the time comes (probably soon) to trade them for hitters who we have a harder time developing (but have overhauled the process recently so see what Rocchio, Freeman, Jones, Benson, Valera can do this year or next).

 

[petes999]

Boston Red Sox – 78-84 (9th FG System)

2024 Boston Red Sox Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs

2024 Boston Red Sox MLB Depth Charts updated daily with the latest transactions, roster moves, injury list, lineups, probable starting pitchers, and minor league players.

www.fangraphs.com

Boston will be one of the teams who should be heavy into free agency but with Devers and Bogarts needing their paydays, how much money will Boston spend elsewhere remains a big question. Per Bowden in the Athletic, “The Red Sox current blueprint isn’t working. They need to pivot and change direction once again. Ownership needs to get out the checkbook, the front office needs to be willing to trade from its prospect cabinet, and major changes are needed on the major-league roster for the team to be relevant in 2023 and beyond.”

Bowden: Red Sox must change course, make major signings, trades this offseason

The Red Sox need to have one of their most aggressive offseasons in years to address the big questions facing their franchise.

theathletic.com

Biggest needs – Pitching (with injuries to Sale limiting his time and Evoladi as a FA – and issue with his fastball speed going from high 96s in early season to low 94s late in season). Per Athletic, “Boston’s pitching staff ranks 24th in the majors in ERA (4.45) and its bullpen has 27 blown saves in 62 opportunities, one of the worst ratios in baseball. The Red Sox defense ranks 25th out of 30 teams, according to FanGraphs.” Their outfield could also use an improvement as Pharm isn’t expected to be back but the sank $10 million into what Athletic described as a better 10th player off the bench in Kike Hernandez.

Rule 5 – They sit at currently 37 players and per FG will have plenty of room to add Triston Casas (already added) and Ceddanne Rafaela (who they left off last year), plus the upper-level pitching (Brandon Walter and many others at Worcester and Portland) they like. Meanwhile, they have a huge iceberg of Low-A hitters (Eddinson Paulino, Eduardo Lopez, Brainer Bonaci) who I expect to be left off based on how they approached Rafaela and Gilberto Jimenez (no idea what they’ll do there) last offseason.

Normally, Boston and NYY type FA spenders do not worry about Rule 5. They may draft a sleeper type pick of like their Whitlock (when they were starting their rebuild) or they can pass as they got a lot of relievers in their AA/AAA teams as well that they can roster but have the same warts as Rule 5 (like Wallace – hard throwing AA players whose K/BB ration is only 1.5 or so).

Who do Guardians have that we want? For a team that has a vast difference in talent level from Devers and Bogarts to Chang, Luplow and Arroyo cast offs, there isn’t much in the Guardians sweat spot. Both their power hitting 1B in Casas and Beer are lefities. Boston would want a Bieber type trade (if they cannot get Rondon in FA) but their top-tier of if kind of young and limited in numbers (other than Casas). With a deep system with a few right handed CF/OF types Rafaela/Jiminez/Chacon that a Civale/Plesac could be better aligned. FG also has a bunch of ranked relievers (like a 94-96 mph lefty in Cellucci) in their upper minors that would line-up well with us for depth (but not best K/BB ratios usually). Thus, with our starter depth, there is no room as they all have to be rostered.

 

[Gson]

Other than having a big check book.. the Red Sox are nothing short of a train wreck.. Their farm system has very little in the way of ready or deep talent.. What few potential ML level prospects come with already evident warts.. Any deal with these guys would be in the after thought category..

Easy to pass on these guys..

 

[petes999]

Twins – 78-84 (18th FG System)

With all their injuries and desperation moves, this is the hardest system to figure out. The first hurdle is getting a handle of who is staying and leaving in FA. Correa is opting out and the question if Twins spend $$$ long-term to bring him back with other roster questions. Gray with a 2.3 and 3.3 WAR in last 2 years is worth the $12 million option. Sano (3 yrs of near 0 or neg War – $11.25 million net option, no way) , Bundy (2 year of -0.3 WAR and $10 million net probably not) and Archer (5 years of < 1 WAR and $9.25 net option is boarder line but can use money elsewhere) are all not expected to be back per MLBTR.

That leaves a starting pitching depth of Ryan, Mahle, Gray, Maeda and Ober/Winder. A bullpen of Lopez, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Moran and Pagan is a good start and can find 2 for the back end. An OF around Buxton, Kepler and mix of Krilloff, Larnach or Celestino is workable. Leaves infield of Arraez, Miranda, Polanco, Gordon and Ushella. Yes, a SS is nice but not needed. Lewis is out for 12 months so maybe June/July comeback.
With Martin struggling and Lee just getting to AA, there are no real other options. That leaves the catching spot open.

From FG and their other roster crunches

Pending Free Agents: I’m going to guess six, but it’s variable. Tyler Duffey, Gary Sánchez, and Joe Smith are all actual free agents-to-be. Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy have club options for just north of $10 million that I’ll speculate will be picked up. I think the Twins should let Miguel Sanó walk, while Chris Archer’s $10 million mutual option is a tough one to call. Carlos Correa has an opt out I think he’ll exercise.

Must-Add Prospects: Matt Canterino, Edouard Julien

Current 40-man Fringe: Mark Contrera, Emilio Pagán

Prospects on the Fringe: Alex Isola, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Brent Headrick, Will Holland, Sean Mooney

Rule 5 – They are sitting with 36 players right now but will want to add a few FA options like Gray and a catcher or SS or both. FG showed a bigger roster crunch but they have already gotten rid of most of their fringe candidates, traded Steer (must add) and thus are around 37-39 after adding back Gray, Canterino and Julien (their 14th and 15th ranked FG prospects). Thus, they will leave one or two slots open for other FAs like a catcher than adding in Rule 5.

BTV NTC - Kyle Garlick, Emilio Pagan

Biggest need – FOR (shutdown) starter and catcher and then maybe SS/LF.

Who would Guardians want? Here is where reality hits the road. For all that our fans want a right handed CF upgrade like Buxton, no way do we touch his $14.3 million AAV salary with his injury history. And of course we want Arraez, Miranda or Duran but it ain’t happening. If we are getting rid of Rosario, this is the team that he would fit as a 1-year rental till Lewis is fully healthy and his bat and speed would play well on turf but not his fielding, but is he that big of an upgrade over Polanco (2.8 War vs 4.1 War) for 1 year? Garlick is one of those under the radar LHP platoons that would be cheap but not worth the roster space (.252/.839 tOPS+ of 130 splits vs LHP) due to not being a defensive replacement (negative WAR per BR in field).

 

[Gson]

As a division rival.. deals involving the Twins are less likely.... not that the Twins have a lot of what the Guardians want, anyways..

 

[petes999]

Chicago White Sox 81-81 (FG 27th system)

2024 Chicago White Sox Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs

2024 Chicago White Sox MLB Depth Charts updated daily with the latest transactions, roster moves, injury list, lineups, probable starting pitchers, and minor league players.

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Chicago White Sox Offseason Outlook

The Chicago White Sox are about to enter a pivotal offseason, as they hope to flush a terrible season and get back to contending next year.

www.justbaseball.com

Unlike Minnesota, they have easier decisions on which players are coming back. They will have more free agent decisions next year. Yet, the Grifol hire is the most important move due to their players underperforming, the wrong manager can make or break them with no farm system to really improve their roster. In addition, their payroll may also be limited, we will see -- est $178 million with no FA moves next year vs $190 million last year which was highest ever for them. They have some room but not enough to fill all the possible holes.

Of course, they will bring back Anderson at $11.5 million net option. Pollack is expected to accept his $8 million net player option as a role player. And even though Harrison isn’t expected to be back at $4 million next option next year, it is probably the best option in a weak 2nd base FA class (that or bring back Andrus at a more reasonable salary) and thus one less position for them to worry about.

Pitching wise – they need more depth in starting pitching. This can be done by bringing Cueto or Rondon back to put in with Cease, Lynn, Giolito and Kopech. Yet, beyond these 4 are just 2 okay AAA pitchers in Martin and Stiever.

Bullpen – Getting back Crochet at some point of season will definitely help. Guys like Joe Kelly need to step up at age 35 for his $8.5 salary. A 6.08 ERA is out of line with 3.06 FIP but his WHIP went from .977 to 1.595.

Hitters – They are losing their most consistent player in Abreu which will thin out what is an inconstant lineup.
… Catcher – Which Grandal will show up at age he 34? The one with 64 OPS+ or the one who was consistently always over 100 OPS+ till last year? Are his knees giving out? If he isn’t a starter anymore, Zavala won’t cut it.
…1st – Vaughn – his OPS+ at 111 isn’t bad but HR didn’t increase from age 23 to 24 (the small inc is due to more AB not due to growing stronger)
…3rd Moncada – Is just inconsistent each year 2019 and 21 had 5.1 and 3.7 oWar but .8 and .7 in 20 and 22 (so expect an increase for next year?)
…. RF – could go to Casas, their one prospect worth a mlb promotion by mid-year after A+/AA/AAA line of .314/.895 Avg/OPS.
…. LF – Jimenez a .295/.858 BA/OPS isn’t that bad
… DH – Sheets? Cold start and cold finish but Aug was .359/1.017 – which one shows up in 2023?

It all depends on who shows up. An aging club who is on the way down or will Vaughn, Jiminez and Sheets step up to their potential?

Rule 5 – They will probably add Sanchez (another 2B option), Ramos and Rodriquez (maybe McClure). Sitting at 37 players, they have 1 or 2 option additions in Anderson and Pollock. But, a bunch of NTCs so no real issues.

BTV NTC - Kyle Crick, Adam Engel, Adam Haseley, Danny Mendick, Mark Payton, Jose Ruiz

Who do the Guardians want? Of course Jimenez, Roberts and Vaughn (and Cespedes at AAA this year) can provide the right handed bat that we want but a trade between division rivals doesn’t happen. But, there is not much else in their farm system and other than Roberts, Chicago players are known for their bats not their defense that Cleveland usually prioritizes.