Let's flip things around and look at the two 4-1 teams with negative DVOA. First, Cleveland. There are two things going on with Cleveland. You may notice that Cleveland dropped six spots from 12th to 18th despite winning over Indianapolis this week. This was the latest in what seems like a weekly series this year, games where DVOA disagrees not only with the win-loss result but with the eye test. Cleveland ended up with a -4.5% single-game DVOA for this game, while Indianapolis was at 29.5%. A breakdown of offensive numbers explains somewhat. The Colts ended this game with the higher average of yards per play, 5.9 to 5.3, and the higher play success rate on offense, 47% to 43%. Both quarterbacks threw two interceptions, and the Browns tossed in a fumble as well (that they recovered themselves). Cleveland ran more plays, 72 to 51, but the efficiency numbers are more predictive than the number of plays run.
But really, this week's game is not why Cleveland has a negative DVOA overall. Cleveland has a negative DVOA overall because of the way they got defenestrated by the Baltimore Ravens back in Week 1. Cleveland's single-game rating for that loss with current opponent adjustments is -99.8%, the worst game played by any team this year. Take out that game, and the average of Cleveland's other games is 23.3%, which would easily put the Browns in the top ten. The Browns also would be above average if not for their special teams, which currently rank 31st in the league.
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