Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[Montgo]

I’d consider the Hand and Miller trades to be recent examples. Do you expect them to trade their top prospects every year?

Don’t exaggerate and move the goalposts.

Besides, it’s been 3 years. They’ve had a relatively healthy system with depth at certain positions for a while now. Stating that haven’t been in a position to explore deals in this direction is not accurate. They just choose not to. Hopefully that changes this off season. Otherwise, they really are just going through a rebuild without being obvious about it.

 

[KluberSociety]

Heaney is a solid reliever, but he won't come cheap. He made $6.75 this year, and will get a multi year deal that the Guardians can afford.

I dispute the assertion that our pen is left hand starved.

Starting with Hentges and Gose.

We are as left hand starved now as we were closer starved last off season with Clase and Karinchak.

I definitely do not want to be relying on Hentges and especially Gose. Gose put up a 7 BB/9 across both levels this year. Maybe he figured something out but I remain very skeptical. Hentges was very good against lefties and much better as a reliever than a starter, so I do think there is some potential there to be a strong lefty out of the pen, but he is still an unknown commodity. I do think he has more room to go up than down though.

I don't think Heaney will get a good deal after his off year. If we get outbid, so be it but I think it'd be good to put in a lowball offer.

We have all right handed starting pitchers now. If we traded one of them like Plesac, Heaney would also be a decent back of rotation starter.

 

[CDAV45]

"Corner OF" is the new Owen Miller, the position that will magically make our offense good. There is a psychological aversion to the idea of having someone like Amed in one of those slots but it's best not to let that be a bias.

What corner OF probably is, is something which we can patch up to where it is significantly better than last year, some from within the organization and some from outside of it. It's not going to dramatically impact things because we're just talking about 2 lineup spots out of 9. Having a bunch of average players and Jose is not a bad equation. If Amed slots best in corner OF to accomplish that what's wrong with that?

i'll tell you what's wrong with that, you're not going to beat the Chicago White Sox are any post season foe. That's what's "wrong with it".

The pitching staff should be good enough that we don't need a top 5 offense to win, but you need to be more productive than they were this season. Frankly, I don't know what's going to happen, but I'm confident in saying that Amed Rosario will not be our LFer in 22. I'm so dumbfounded that this is even a conversation so I think I'll bow out and let you guys continue to discuss it. I'm not "above it" by any means, I just thinks it's stupid.

 

[FFRva]

Honestly their system had a lull where it really wasn't to well set up to ship off prospects past couple years. They built a nice graduating class and were competing with it and then set up a really young system for a next wave, it's why their like entire top ten was like under 20. The problem in cashing prospects like that in is they are so far away and there is more error and projection with being so far away from the majors, that a lot of teams aren't looking for that in return for good players. They want prospects that have seen AA and are on the cusp of contributing and being controllable. It's why now we are seeing this blossoming of a system and a tad of numbers crunch to go with it. That said everyone is kinda dealing with that because of Covid.

 

[Criznit]

We weren't f'd with Harold, Johnson, Mercado etc. playing LF? Amed would be exponentially better in LF than Harold. I guess what I'm trying to say is Amed in LF would be more of settling for him there rather than putting a bigger bat there. I'd rather see Amed stay at SS than play LF because it's much easier finding a big bat to hide in LF rather than anywhere in the middle of the field.

You can't convince me that any of Tito, CA, or MC think it's a good idea to play Amed Rosario in any corner position. It's not going to happen on purpose.

I agree. I don't think it will happen on purpose, but is a Plan B.

And no offense to our FO/ownership, it seems like a lot of what we end up having to do is plan B stuff because plan A stuff is just too expensive..

 

[Derek]

Don’t exaggerate and move the goalposts.

Besides, it’s been 3 years. They’ve had a relatively healthy system with depth at certain positions for a while now. Stating that haven’t been in a position to explore deals in this direction is not accurate. They just choose not to. Hopefully that changes this off season. Otherwise, they really are just going through a rebuild without being obvious about it.

What goal posts have I moved? All I’ve ever said is that they done a great job of cashing in on the value of their prospects, and that they’ve been very active in the trade market.

You’ve provided zero evidence to the contrary.

What prospects have you wanted them to cash in on? They’ve dealt top guys when they’ve been in a position to make a deep run.

What perpetual 40-man crunch have they endured? They had an open 40-man spot just last year to select Stephan in the Rule V!

 

[KluberSociety]

i'll tell you what's wrong with that, you're not going to beat the Chicago White Sox are any post season foe. That's what's "wrong with it".

The pitching staff should be good enough that we don't need a top 5 offense to win, but you need to be more productive than they were this season. Frankly, I don't know what's going to happen, but I'm confident in saying that Amed Rosario will not be our LFer in 22. I'm so dumbfounded that this is even a conversation so I think I'll bow out and let you guys continue to discuss it. I'm not "above it" by any means, I just thinks it's stupid.

Let's be realistic. The chance that one or two players moves things so much that we make it to the postseason, or further in it, is extremely low.

And it also just doesn't matter how they do it. If they do it with defense and speed, that's subtracting runs from the other team and potentially adding runs to our team. If they do it with power that's adding runs to our team. There's multiple ways to try to send an optimal ball club out there and they don't involve following some age old rules about that we need a specific kind of player in the OF.

I hate the phrase "impact bat.". No one bat creates an impact by themselves. It leads people to have too high of expectations that some hitting messiah will come and turn a #20 offense into a good offense. Let's instead just field a good team, regardless of who plays where.

 

[Criznit]

Let's be realistic. The chance that one or two players moves things so much that we make it to the postseason, or further in it, is extremely low.

And it also just doesn't matter how they do it. If they do it with defense and speed, that's subtracting runs from the other team and potentially adding runs to our team. If they do it with power that's adding runs to our team. There's multiple ways to try to send an optimal ball club out there and they don't involve following some age old rules about that we need a specific kind of player in the OF.

I hate the phrase "impact bat.". No one bat creates an impact by themselves. It leads people to have too high of expectations that some hitting messiah will come and turn a #20 offense into a good offense. Let's instead just field a good team, regardless of who plays where.

Disagree here but it is exceeding rare. I have watched Mike Trout in person win 2 games on his own. Miggy back is another decent example.

 

[KluberSociety]

Disagree here but it is exceeding rare. I have watched Mike Trout in person win 2 games on his own. Miggy back is another decent example.

When their surrounding teams were no longer (or in the case of Trout, never were) good, they couldn't carry the teams on their back.

Obviously adding Mike Trout would make the lineup significantly better but I think the tendency is to put irrational hope into the idea of one addition somehow dramatically altering the substance of the offense, which is just not going to happen.

In Trout's best year, he added 70 runs of offense to his team. That's .43 runs per game.

 

[Montgo]

What goal posts have I moved?

You’ve provided zero evidence to the contrary.

There’s a lot of room between trading their best prospects every year and doing nothing. Your comment was an unnecessary exaggeration of my stance.

We both agree they haven’t traded a meaningful prospect in over 3 years. How does that not support my initial claim (the one you responded to) that they don’t make these trades very often? We seem to be arguing semantics as to what is considered recent and/or often.

The Miller and Hand trades had zero impact on the club’s ability to contend moving forward. The same goes for the Ubaldo trade years earlier. I’ve long been in the camp the concern over these types of trades is way overblown.

Simply put, I want to see the Tribe take more calculated risks in this direction. If anyone is arguing the Indians don’t have the ammo to do so, I disagree. I also disagree they have ability to compete next year without doing so.

 

[Derek]

There’s a lot of room between trading their best prospects every year and doing nothing. Your comment was an unnecessary exaggeration of my stance.

We both agree they haven’t traded a meaningful prospect in over 3 years. How does that not support my initial claim (the one you responded to) that they don’t make these trades very often? We seem to be arguing semantics as to what is considered recent and/or often.

The Miller and Hand trades had zero impact on the club’s ability to contend moving forward. The same goes for the Ubaldo trade years earlier. I’ve long been in the camp the concern over these types of trades is way overblown.

Simply put, I want to see the Tribe take more calculated risks in this direction. If anyone is arguing the Indians don’t have the ammo to do so, I disagree. I also disagree they have ability to compete next year without doing so.

I’m not arguing they don’t have the ammo. I’m arguing that they’ve been one of the more aggressive teams in the league when it comes to dealing prospects to help the big club contend. Your expectations for when and how often these types of trades should occur are unrealistic.

I wasn’t being purposely hyperbolic. I’m simply asking, who did you want them to cash in on?

Here are the guys who have been top 5 organizational prospects at various stages since midseason 2018 via baseball america:
Triston McKenzie - 24 y/o, currently in the rotation
Shane Bieber - 26 y/o, currently in the rotation
Nolan Jones - 23 y/o, coming off a promising debut season in AAA and eying a 2022 debut in Cleveland
George Valera - 20 y/o, coming off a stellar season that ended in AA
Bo Naylor - 21 y/o, coming off a rough season at the plate in AA
Tyler Freeman - 22 y/o, coming off a stellar season in AA that was cut short by injury
Brayan Rocchio - 20 y/o, coming off a stellar season that ended in AA
Daniel Espino - 20 y/o, coming off a stellar season that ended in A+

Our upper levels were pretty barren after our contending years (2016-2018). Most of the guys who have held any significant value over the last few years are either current contributors, or guys who haven’t even had a chance to contribute yet because they were in the lower levels until this season.

 

[sportscoach]

@CDAV45

I want our best 8 bats outside of catcher playing and if that means putting Amed in LF then so be it. Merrifield couldn't play RF in your system yet he would be easily a 3-4 WAR a season out there.... isn't that what you want? Amed via baseball reference had a 3 oWAR... put him in LF and with his athleticism ita possible he gets a positive dWAR and he could be a 3 WAR guy in LF, but since he doesn't profile in LF, he shouldn't play out there....

 

[BimboColesHair]

Just popping in to say yes, the Jays did call and asked about Jose...it lasted less than 30 seconds. Chris and Mike then BS'd with Ross for about 10x as long.

Whole bunch of nothing.

 

[Montgo]

I’m not arguing they don’t have the ammo. I’m arguing that they’ve been one of the more aggressive teams in the league when it comes to dealing prospects to help the big club contend. Your expectations for when and how often these types of trades should occur are unrealistic.

I wasn’t being purposely hyperbolic. I’m simply asking, who did you want them to cash in on?

Here are the guys who have been top 5 organizational prospects at various stages since midseason 2018 via baseball america:
Triston McKenzie - 24 y/o, currently in the rotation
Shane Bieber - 26 y/o, currently in the rotation
Nolan Jones - 23 y/o, coming off a promising debut season in AAA and eying a 2022 debut in Cleveland
George Valera - 20 y/o, coming off a stellar season that ended in AA
Bo Naylor - 21 y/o, coming off a rough season at the plate in AA
Tyler Freeman - 22 y/o, coming off a stellar season in AA that was cut short by injury
Brayan Rocchio - 20 y/o, coming off a stellar season that ended in AA
Daniel Espino - 20 y/o, coming off a stellar season that ended in A+

Our upper levels were pretty barren after our contending years (2016-2018). Most of the guys who have held any significant value over the last few years are either current contributors, or guys who haven’t even had a chance to contribute yet because they were in the lower levels until this season.

I would certainly have not be opposed to trading a few of those guys for a legit MLB player. Still would do it.

Obviously Bieber would have been unfortunate to move at any point, but he’s at the high end of the bar. There’s far more Bradley Zimmers of the prospect world than Shane Bieber’s.

To better answer your question though, I want the Indians to operate more like Tampa. That organization does an excellent job making trades in both directions and getting full value out of prospects and vets alike. While I fully acknowledge that TB has had a better system to work with, here’s a list of top prospects/young MLB players they’ve dealt just since the Indians traded Mejia for Hand:

Nick Solak
Nate Lowe
Jake Cronenworth
Matt Liberatore (top 100 prospect at the time)
Jesus Sanchez
Willy Adames
Joe Ryan

That’s a lot of controllable young talent for a team with the lowest payroll in baseball. Yet, they continue to churn out 90+ wins every year in the toughest division in MLB. Why? Because they are active in reshaping their roster every off season making trades in both directions. They don’t win every trade, not even close. But they get the right roster together almost every year.

Can you honestly see the current Tribe FO making the same decision to move on from W. Adames and promoting a 20 year old top prospect in June? Or making really any of these trades?

The Tribe FO is extremely conservative and deliberate in their process. It works over time, but its not great for reloading or whatever the hell they want to label this past season. If they have a notion to contend next year, they need to make a few trades.

 

[Gson]

I would certainly have not be opposed to trading a few of those guys for a legit MLB player. Still would do it.....

Can you honestly see the current Tribe FO making the same decision to move on from W. Adames and promoting a 20 year old top prospect in June? Or making really any of these trades?

The Tribe FO is extremely conservative and deliberate in their process. It works over time, but its not great for reloading or whatever the hell they want to label this past season. If they have a notion to contend next year, they need to make a few trades.

Yes and yes.. I advocated for moving both Tyler Freeman and Nolan Jones.. for Lourdes Gurriel jr as an example.. there were five other "trades" like that I proposed... A deal with the Mariners would be HIGH on my list right now.. The DBax and Reds, too..

and none of these deals include Jose Ramirez..