Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[CATS44]

Notice that I talked about 2022, not what to expect much beyond that.

Amed and Gimenez are our best two MIFs right now. I strongly disagree that Arias is better defensively than Gimenez right now, and have major doubts that he ever will be.

The problem for fans with Gimenez is that he wasnt one of OUR prospects, merely part of the return in an unpopular trade. He was the #1 prospect in the Mets organization, as was Amed before him. Gimenez was the Mets version of whomever you feel is our best prospect now. If he had been our #1, fans would be falling all over him, insisting the he was gonna be the next Lindor or JRam. (Like some are now saying about Arias and Rocchio.)

*************

For those that think we should trade Amed, because he isn't a good SS....if thats true, why would anybody else want him as a SS?

**********

I dont view Bradley as a league average hitter, or a league average anything. If the org is betting on Bobby, it is betting on the man, not the player. His willingness to work on his game, which has been outstanding, (It really shows in his improved defense) is his only real selling point....but he has never been able to make consistent contact, and he is no longer a kid. Making occasional hard contact is the mirage that a lot of failed players have fooled teams with throughout baseball history. On this present roster, he has 'earned' the opportunity to get first crack at first base, but I'm not really interested in riding him as the answer on a contending team.

*********

There are two options to bring in an offensive catcher....either an expensive rental, like Contreras, or a very expensive long termer, like Murphy. And if the choice is obtaining a very expensive OF long term, like a Reynolds, or a very expensive long term catcher, my choice is the OF. We have two fairly close catching prospects in Naylor and Lavastida. We have one fairly close OF prospect in Valera, and we need two positions filled.

*********

I have little faith in projections for any upcoming season, but some folks do....and they are interesting, if only for fun.

If you look at team offensive projections for 2022, using Depth Charts, we are presently ranked third in the division, behind Chicago and Minnesota....5.5 WAR behind the White Sox.

If you look at our projected WAR by position...

C. ...1.9
1B...0.6
RF...1.4 (five players)
LF....1.8 (six players)

Where are the best opportunities to make up that 5.5 WAR we trail the Chisox?...and at the same time thin out the roster to make room for the pitchers we need to add?

 

[MadThinker88]

@CATS44: The completion of trades is not the only way to open a 40 man spot.

I suspect 1 or more 40 man spots will be opened in March/ April as certain players (Josh Naylor, Carlos Vargas for example) are not yet ready to return to playing from their injuries and go back onto the 60 day IL.

Additionally rare is the time that NO ONE suffers some sort of injury/ setback during Spring Training. Depending on the severity that could open another 40 man roster spot or 2.

On top of that there are a number of players (position & pitchers) that are out of options... If a couple of those have poor showings in the spring, it is entirely possible any projected playing time for them disappears. If CLE decides to DFA a player without options, it could open even more roster spots..

 

[CATS44]

T

@CATS44: The completion of trades is not the only way to open a 40 man spot.

I suspect 1 or more 40 man spots will be opened in March/ April as certain players (Josh Naylor, Carlos Vargas for example) are not yet ready to return to playing from their injuries and go back onto the 60 day IL.

Additionally rare is the time that NO ONE suffers some sort of injury/ setback during Spring Training. Depending on the severity that could open another 40 man roster spot or 2.

On top of that there are a number of players (position & pitchers) that are out of options... If a couple of those have poor showings in the spring, it is entirely possible any projected playing time for them disappears. If CLE decides to DFA a player without options, it could open even more roster spots..

Thats all true, but that is kicking the can down the road on one part, and subtraction on another. The idea is to add to the production of the 2022 team, not tread water while the rest of the division swims past.

What we have right now is an extremely thin 26 man roster, no matter which 26 players are on it. By seasons end we will need to use at least 40 players/pitchers capable of holding their own in the American League. This roster doesn't have that.

Pick any 26 players you choose from our 40 man. No matter which 26 you choose, they cannot contend...unless every single one remains totally healthy and reasonably productive over 162 games, because there is zero MLB depth, and too many are fringe types.

Out of 40 players, we have only 26 that have any MLB experience. Of the 13 that are position players, only nine have more than a half season of MLB at bats. Of the 13 pitchers, only six...five SPs and Clase...can be considered in any sense established.

 

[Gson]

@CATS44: The completion of trades is not the only way to open a 40 man spot.

I suspect 1 or more 40 man spots will be opened in March/ April as certain players (Josh Naylor, Carlos Vargas for example) are not yet ready to return to playing from their injuries and go back onto the 60 day IL.

Additionally rare is the time that NO ONE suffers some sort of injury/ setback during Spring Training. Depending on the severity that could open another 40 man roster spot or 2.

On top of that there are a number of players (position & pitchers) that are out of options... If a couple of those have poor showings in the spring, it is entirely possible any projected playing time for them disappears. If CLE decides to DFA a player without options, it could open even more roster spots..

there are still three to six guys on the forty man roster holding on by their finger nails.. opening a spot isn't going to be the end all.. The guys at the end of the roster are there because they deserve to be there..

 

[CATS44]

Which six do you want to give away?

 

[Gson]

Which six do you want to give away?

none.. no one is 'given away'

 

[CDAV45]

Notice that I talked about 2022, not what to expect much beyond that.

Amed and Gimenez are our best two MIFs right now. I strongly disagree that Arias is better defensively than Gimenez right now, and have major doubts that he ever will be.

The problem for fans with Gimenez is that he wasnt one of OUR prospects, merely part of the return in an unpopular trade. He was the #1 prospect in the Mets organization, as was Amed before him. Gimenez was the Mets version of whomever you feel is our best prospect now. If he had been our #1, fans would be falling all over him, insisting the he was gonna be the next Lindor or JRam. (Like some are now saying about Arias and Rocchio.)

*************

For those that think we should trade Amed, because he isn't a good SS....if thats true, why would anybody else want him as a SS?

**********

I dont view Bradley as a league average hitter, or a league average anything. If the org is betting on Bobby, it is betting on the man, not the player. His willingness to work on his game, which has been outstanding, (It really shows in his improved defense) is his only real selling point....but he has never been able to make consistent contact, and he is no longer a kid. Making occasional hard contact is the mirage that a lot of failed players have fooled teams with throughout baseball history. On this present roster, he has 'earned' the opportunity to get first crack at first base, but I'm not really interested in riding him as the answer on a contending team.

*********

There are two options to bring in an offensive catcher....either an expensive rental, like Contreras, or a very expensive long termer, like Murphy. And if the choice is obtaining a very expensive OF long term, like a Reynolds, or a very expensive long term catcher, my choice is the OF. We have two fairly close catching prospects in Naylor and Lavastida. We have one fairly close OF prospect in Valera, and we need two positions filled.

*********

I have little faith in projections for any upcoming season, but some folks do....and they are interesting, if only for fun.

If you look at team offensive projections for 2022, using Depth Charts, we are presently ranked third in the division, behind Chicago and Minnesota....5.5 WAR behind the White Sox.

If you look at our projected WAR by position...

C. ...1.9
1B...0.6
RF...1.4 (five players)
LF....1.8 (six players)

Where are the best opportunities to make up that 5.5 WAR we trail the Chisox?...and at the same time thin out the roster to make room for the pitchers we need to add?

CATS, I think you're exaggerating a bit to build your case. Nobody's problem with Gimenez is that he wasn't our top prospect. That's just silliness.

I'm in the same boat with you about Amed for the most part. While he's not a GG caliber defensive SS, I think he's fine and hasn't and won't lose us games due to his defense. However, you can strongly disagree all you want about Arias' defensive prowess, but he's quite possibly the best defensive SS in our system. That isn't just my opinion. If for some reason JRam isn't extended then Arias is likely his replacement because there are a few other good defensive SS in the system(Gimenez being one of them), but none of them have Arias' arm strength and his glove is as good as any. He also has the size and power to profile nicely at the hot corner.

Bradley produced a OPS+ of 99 with the league average being 100. He has become much better defensively after getting himself into better shape. I'm not sold on him either, but there's thunder in his bat with nobody pushing him off at the moment. He needs to produce or be replaced. I'm not opposed to him being part of a trade package if another team has interest, but make no mistake. He is our 1B starting the season.

I love Contreras as a C, but I don't like the 1 yr of control. I'm not giving anything of significance to get him. I'm not a Murphy fan and I think Jensen is very comparable and could be obtained for a lot less. I fully agree that addressing the OF is more urgent.

I expect Valera to make his debut sometime in 23. I expect Jones and Palacios to make their debuts in 22 and I hope they hit the ground running.

How in the hell can anyone project the 22 season when the rosters are going to change drastically once the lockout is over? I think all of Mercado, Zimmer, Chang, and Clement are easily removed. I think they could trade someone like Amed for a prospect or 2 that don't have to be rostered. That would require Miller and Gimenez holding their own and I think they are perfectly capable of doing so. I don't think the 40 man is going to be an issue.

 

[CATS44]

CATS, I think you're exaggerating a bit to build your case. Nobody's problem with Gimenez is that he wasn't our top prospect. That's just silliness.

I'm in the same boat with you about Amed for the most part. While he's not a GG caliber defensive SS, I think he's fine and hasn't and won't lose us games due to his defense. However, you can strongly disagree all you want about Arias' defensive prowess, but he's quite possibly the best defensive SS in our system. That isn't just my opinion. If for some reason JRam isn't extended then Arias is likely his replacement because there are a few other good defensive SS in the system(Gimenez being one of them), but none of them have Arias' arm strength and his glove is as good as any. He also has the size and power to profile nicely at the hot corner.

Bradley produced a OPS+ of 99 with the league average being 100. He has become much better defensively after getting himself into better shape. I'm not sold on him either, but there's thunder in his bat with nobody pushing him off at the moment. He needs to produce or be replaced. I'm not opposed to him being part of a trade package if another team has interest, but make no mistake. He is our 1B starting the season.

I love Contreras as a C, but I don't like the 1 yr of control. I'm not giving anything of significance to get him. I'm not a Murphy fan and I think Jensen is very comparable and could be obtained for a lot less. I fully agree that addressing the OF is more urgent.

I expect Valera to make his debut sometime in 23. I expect Jones and Palacios to make their debuts in 22 and I hope they hit the ground running.

How in the hell can anyone project the 22 season when the rosters are going to change drastically once the lockout is over? I think all of Mercado, Zimmer, Chang, and Clement are easily removed. I think they could trade someone like Amed for a prospect or 2 that don't have to be rostered. That would require Miller and Gimenez holding their own and I think they are perfectly capable of doing so. I don't think the 40 man is going to be an issue.

Your points about Arias make my case. Gimenez was and is a better prospect than Arias. Pre 2019 when he was 20 yrs old, Gimenez was rated #30 by BA and #38 by BP. We have nobody in that range, certainly not Arias. He also out performed Arias in Columbus this year. And you dont move your 'best' defender off of SS, no matter how well he might hit or throw. Besides, Rocchio is rated a better defender than Arias.

Because they were 'our' prospects, fans on here over valued Zimmer and Frazier well past their shelf lives....and they continue to do so with our present ones.

You keep saying that we can easily drop guys....which IS giving them away...like Zimmer, Chang, Mercado, and Clement. Lets say we do so....we replace them with a catcher and three pitchers.

Where would that leave us?

It would leave us with ONE MLB outfielder (Straw) and an injured Naylor. Our 1B situation would be Bradley, backed up by Miller.

We are not going into the season with an OF of Palacios, Straw, and Kwan as our starters, with no fourth OF.

Since there obviously is not going to be a spending spree to fill all our holes with quality free agents....and the org is not going to punt this season into 85 losses...the only solution is to trade from our excess MIF/SP prospect stock.

Last year we used 48 players. We used 54 in 2019 and 49 in 2018. We are likely to need close to that this coming season. We have only 17 pitchers and 13 non MIFs on our roster right now. Three on the 40 man certainly won't see Cleveland this year, leaving us to start with only 37.

Some of those prospects are gonna get traded or forced to be let go. We can't get thru a successful season without doing so.

 

[Gson]

CATS, I think you're exaggerating a bit to build your case. Nobody's problem with Gimenez is that he wasn't our top prospect. That's just silliness.

I'm in the same boat with you about Amed for the most part. While he's not a GG caliber defensive SS, I think he's fine and hasn't and won't lose us games due to his defense. However, you can strongly disagree all you want about Arias' defensive prowess, but he's quite possibly the best defensive SS in our system. That isn't just my opinion. If for some reason JRam isn't extended then Arias is likely his replacement because there are a few other good defensive SS in the system(Gimenez being one of them), but none of them have Arias' arm strength and his glove is as good as any. He also has the size and power to profile nicely at the hot corner.

Bradley produced a OPS+ of 99 with the league average being 100. He has become much better defensively after getting himself into better shape. I'm not sold on him either, but there's thunder in his bat with nobody pushing him off at the moment. He needs to produce or be replaced. I'm not opposed to him being part of a trade package if another team has interest, but make no mistake. He is our 1B starting the season.

I love Contreras as a C, but I don't like the 1 yr of control. I'm not giving anything of significance to get him. I'm not a Murphy fan and I think Jensen is very comparable and could be obtained for a lot less. I fully agree that addressing the OF is more urgent.

I expect Valera to make his debut sometime in 23. I expect Jones and Palacios to make their debuts in 22 and I hope they hit the ground running.

How in the hell can anyone project the 22 season when the rosters are going to change drastically once the lockout is over? I think all of Mercado, Zimmer, Chang, and Clement are easily removed. I think they could trade someone like Amed for a prospect or 2 that don't have to be rostered. That would require Miller and Gimenez holding their own and I think they are perfectly capable of doing so. I don't think the 40 man is going to be an issue.

hmm...

Amed is a good stop gap SS until he's not.. That could be in sixty days or 360 days.. IDK when.. but it's going to happen, but, it will happen and he will be replaced with a much better defensive SS.. Andres Gimenez is already better defensive, but the team is better with Andres as a middle infielder (on either side of second base..) and Amed at SS... where he hits..

Bradley is the Guardians 1B until he isn't.. and that may be on and off during the 2022 season or 13 years from now.. There are two possible/potential prospects in the system that are worth considering as his replacement.. Johnkensey and Nolan.. Nolan isn't far from being relevant..

imho.. Contreras is a non-issue unless it's his younger brother or if Contreras the elder is included into a deal as a paid throw in from the Cubs. There are other back stops worth looking into than a one year rental.. Agree with you on the A's Murphy.. vastly over valued...

Disagree that OF is more dire than catching.. we'll agree to disagree on this..

The entire discussion about the horrific 40 man roster crunch has now covered more than 40 pages of this thread on this forum.. Truth be told.. it's just not that big of a deal.. and never will be.. The guys at the bottom of the 40 man roster are in danger of "finding their true calling".. is a euphemism for "..they're not good enough to play major league baseball, so, it's a good idea to move on to something they can do.." or go someplace else.. Either way, the 40 man roster "crunch" is resolved..

Your foursome is about right.. In an earlier post.. I suggested there were three to six on the 40 man roster than could be removed without hurting the team.. you named two on my list.. but I'll add the other two on your list..

There was a suggestion about a Cardinal named Yepez.. he's interesting.. interesting indeed.. All of his trend lines are going in the right direction.. If anyone has some vid's.. that would be nice.. The Cardinals also have two or three catchers that are moving toward being near ML ready.. Herrera being the closest, however, I wouldn't sleep on Ali Sanchez especially if a smaller deal is put together.

Thoughts?

 

[rcristal]

Which six do you want to give away?

I would most certainly offer several, specific young guys for Cedric Mullins.

Rcristal

 

[rcristal]

I would offer Plesac, Nolan Jones and Giminez. And, yes, that is a lot to offer. However, if need be, I might add a fourth.
rcristal

 

[sportscoach]

I would offer Plesac, Nolan Jones and Giminez. And, yes, that is a lot to offer. However, if need be, I might add a fourth.
rcristal

In the GM thread lets talk about this...

 

[rmacd]

Guys who have a good knowledge of prospects - Lada, Hood, & Coblitz had G's best inf glove rated.

1. Arias
2. Tena
3. Rocchio
4. Freeman

 

[CDAV45]

Your points about Arias make my case. Gimenez was and is a better prospect than Arias. Pre 2019 when he was 20 yrs old, Gimenez was rated #30 by BA and #38 by BP. We have nobody in that range, certainly not Arias. He also out performed Arias in Columbus this year. And you dont move your 'best' defender off of SS, no matter how well he might hit or throw. Besides, Rocchio is rated a better defender than Arias.

Because they were 'our' prospects, fans on here over valued Zimmer and Frazier well past their shelf lives....and they continue to do so with our present ones.

You keep saying that we can easily drop guys....which IS giving them away...like Zimmer, Chang, Mercado, and Clement. Lets say we do so....we replace them with a catcher and three pitchers.

Where would that leave us?

It would leave us with ONE MLB outfielder (Straw) and an injured Naylor. Our 1B situation would be Bradley, backed up by Miller.

We are not going into the season with an OF of Palacios, Straw, and Kwan as our starters, with no fourth OF.

Since there obviously is not going to be a spending spree to fill all our holes with quality free agents....and the org is not going to punt this season into 85 losses...the only solution is to trade from our excess MIF/SP prospect stock.

Last year we used 48 players. We used 54 in 2019 and 49 in 2018. We are likely to need close to that this coming season. We have only 17 pitchers and 13 non MIFs on our roster right now. Three on the 40 man certainly won't see Cleveland this year, leaving us to start with only 37.

Some of those prospects are gonna get traded or forced to be let go. We can't get thru a successful season without doing so.

My points about Arias don't make your case by any stretch of the imagination, but you keep on keeping on.

There is going to be a trade or 2 so I don't know what or who you are arguing over. You seem as if you might be losing sleep over some imaginary 40 man roster issues. You need not worry. CA and MC are more intelligent than you're giving them credit for.

You sure there isn't going to be a spending spree now? I'll wait to see what influence Blitzer has on payroll. The last time we had a minority owner payroll went well above $100M.

Last year we used 48 players because more than half the rotation was injured and it was basically a "see what we have" year.

I agree that some prospects are gonna get traded. All indications point to that, but I'm not sure which ones and I don't know if MC is sure either. Maybe he is.

 

[sportscoach]

We won't see a payroll much above 70 this season and that's not cause we aren't going to spend eventually, it's because of the fact we have so many pre-arb players...

Once guys start hitting arb/we need to keep a nucleus of guys, with the new minority owner, we should be able to keep guys longer term and shell out more money for the roster...