Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[DJTJ]

Think he's probably a lock to start in A+

No reason not to be aggressive with him, if healthy. He's more than capable of pitching in Akron right now, IMO.

What’s the breaking pitch? It’s gnarly.

 

[PIP]

3. Everybody love everybody. We all want the same thing, a World Series win. Only thing we disagree on is how to get there.

From point A to point B we’re gonna get there….

 

[sportscoach]

From point A to point B we’re gonna get there….

View attachment 9355

If it runs then we are still golden! Just may be a bit windy and pulls to the right a bit lol

 

[FrontPageNews]

The only thing that actually gives us any chance is the fact we offered Lindor a legit deal he turned down. JRam instead is going to get offered that in a sense...

Wasn’t that deal like 5 years 100M? That was never legit. That was about 100M lower than what it should have been at the time

 

[sportscoach]

Wasn’t that deal like 5 years 100M? That was never legit. That was about 100M lower than what it should have been at the time

Not that deal, the extension deal they offered him before they traded him... The FO did have a deal in place that was in the 20s AAV for like 7 years or something like that.

 

[BMAN]

Derek - sry I was a little wasted last night. I do like your posts quite a bit. Don't take them elsewhere, just ignore me.

On a Wednesday night?! My man.

 

[AZ_]

What’s the breaking pitch? It’s gnarly.

The slider is a plus plus out pitch for him, he's also got a change up and a very seldom used curve at the moment.

The back door two-seamer he drops in for the backwards K was sick, also.


Commands it up and down, only going to get better.

An ace in the making with this development system, IMO.

 

[DCTribefan]

Yeah, I'm not fully understanding the poo-pooing over the offense or over the division as a whole.

The Twins, Royals, and Tigers pitching staffs did little to nothing to guarantee improvement this offseason and are relying on growth from younger and less experienced internal options who struggled last season, which according to this board and how it is treating Cleveland's offensive prospects as a team for the 2022 season they have no shot at improving this season.

If Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Archer, Zack Grienke, and Sonny Gray are the "big adds" to the division from a SP aspect that saw Rodon, Berrios, Boyd, Duffy, and even Mike Minor leave in the recent past then the SP quality has gotten considerably worse in division on paper.

And that list highlights another aspect of the pitching within the division...almost all of the LH starting pitching left the division. Right now there are only 4 LH starters projected to be in the division at the start of the season; Keuchel, Rodriguez, Skubal, and Bubic. Last year there were 8. Team had a decent year vs LHP last year, but for an organization that traditionally leans heavy on LH hitters that is not a typical outcome year-to-year. Less LHPs in division the better for a lineup that is projecting to be LH heavy with it's unproven guys like Gimenez, Bradley, Naylor, and potentially Kwan.

I don't think Minnesota's lineup got better than last year by replacing Cruz, Donaldson, and Garver with Correa, Urshela, and Sanchez. Their season relies 100% on Buxton staying healthy, which has yet to happen at any point in his career.

KCs only add to their lineup is Bobby Witt Jr. Terrific prospect, but as seen with Kelenic last season, prospects are a crap shoot year 1. That's also a team starting to get long in the tooth with Salvy, Carlos, and Merrifield playing a predominant role in their total offensive production.

Detroit is the only team on paper in division I think is noticeably better than last season offensively. If they get anything from Torkelson and Greene plus the addition of Baez over Goodrum is a sizeable improvement. But that is the team that will lead the majors in Ks this year, calling that right now. That will make the group as a whole very hit or miss, which caps them.

And I will keep harping this. July 1st is when Straw played his 1st game in Cleveland, Franmil came back from a lengthy IL stint, and the offense was for the most part exactly what we are about to head into the 2022 season with (save for Naylor and his injury). From that day forward they had a league average offense while getting below replacement level production offensively from C, LF, RF, and 2B. Unless you think a potential Rosario/Kwan platoon in LF doesn't pan out, Naylor doesn't get better at the plate, Chang doesn't carry over any of his production from the end of last season and ST so far into the regular season, Miller doesn't get better at the plate, and Gimenez doesn't get any better at the plate then it is hard to imagine them not being able to replicate that fairly lengthy stretch and be an average offense in 2022.

The big concern about the offense, for me, isn't the hit or miss aspect of almost half the lineup. They had that same exact concern last year and still put up fairly average offensive numbers for the entire season as a team. The concern is any of the top 4 hitters getting hurt for any significant length of time. Straw, Rosario, Josey, Franmil...they need all of those guys to play 140, 150+ games. If one of them misses 2 months, like Franmil last season, they're in trouble. If 2 are out at the same time? Yikes.

That is where the lack of investment in improving the offense as a whole hurts. Playing with razor thin margins over 162 games is a dangerous game. They did that with the rotation last year and it bit them in the ass.

Espino would have to be in the deal, right?

Also, I still don't know why the Pirates would trade him with four years of control, but let's hope they're willing to do it.

Just because teams covet Reynolds in no way signifies an willingness by the Pirates to trade him.

 

[DCTribefan]

Razor thin margins will be a way of life for the Guardians going forward so they need to figure out how to take the next step. Extending their cornerstone player would be a necessary first step to build around with young talent. I also would not try to extend Bieber before mid-season. Want to see he is fully recovered from injury and the league figuring out to not swing at his sinker out of the strike zone. I think this is the best path forward even if it cost the Guardians more money in an extension deal.

 

[CATS44]

You need to evaluate those numbers a little better than that. You also aren’t factoring physicality and projection. Never mentioned that Arias missed the entire 2020 campaign and then skipped AA altogether. It’s your story though. No team in baseball wouldn’t pick Arias over Gimenez if offered one or the other right now. Looks like Gimenez is headed towards a platoon role too and if he don’t hit better then he did last season he’ll be out of Cleveland. Once the switch flipped for Arias in his age 19 season he’s been a better prospect then Gimenez ever was.

Yeah, and Gimenez skipped AAA to get to the majors.

Don't bet that every GM would choose Arias. If that is so, every available ranking service is wrong...and every GM disagrees with them.

At age 19 Arias played in A+ with a wRC+ of 120. Gimenez began at A+ with a wRC+ of 124, then was promoted to AA.

Defensively Arias had 27 errors to Gimenez 15 in the same amount of innings.

At age 19 Arias was unranked. At age 19 Gimenez was ranked #94 by

At age 20 Arias was ranked #94 by BP. Gimenez was ranked between #30 and #58 by the three major services.

At age 21 Arias was ranked #87 by BP. Gimenez was between #84 and #90.

At age 22 Arias is ranked between #57 and #100. Gimenez was already in MLB.

At AAA last year Gimenez out performed Arias.

 

[CDAV45]

More than you'd want to give up, considering Cleveland wouldn't give them any MLB ready pitching like Paddack or Weathers.

The ask at the Winter Meetings was Valera, Espino, 1 of Arias, Rocchio, and Freeman, and 2 mid-tier starters (Burns, Allen, Battenfield, Curry, etc.) just to get the conversation started.

Good God! He’s good, but not that good.

 

[CATS44]

I agree 100%. I didn’t intend to sound like I don’t like Gimenez because I do, but when we’re talking about upside and talent Arias simply has the tools to be better. That’s all I’m saying.

Not down on Arias at all. Its just that Gimenez is a better bet.

Arias has lots of tools, but the ones that count most...Hit, Speed, Defense...belong to Gimenez. But those who still cling to power as the defining tool dont care about those three.

Again, not down on Arias, but actions speak louder than words. And in a year that the org held tryouts for just about every youngster on the 40 man, the two that didnt get a look were Jones and Arias.

Now, we are getting indications that Chang will win the job at 2B. And then there are Miller and Clement.

 

[PPark]

Any takes on the opening day roster? Will the FO try to get there without losing anyone?

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Whether it is a service time strategy or something else, Cleveland does not aggressively promote hitters to the majors. They almost always end up at AAA for parts of 2 seasons even when they have nothing in front of them that deserves more chances. Who is the last hitter that skipped AAA?

 

[Gson]

If anyone thinks there’s any shot of getting deal done with Jose you haven’t been paying attention the past 20ish years. Jose already took an extremely team friendly deal last time. He’s not going to again.

Unpacking this.. agree.. paying attention to the last 20 years says virtually no chance.. but.. and it's a big but.. the circumstances have never been this favorable to get a deal done.. Not that it will be done.. FWiW.. less than a 50:50 chance to get it done, remains..

but, it won't be cheap / have a home town discount..

it won't be without pain in the two years that the team currently controls..

& it won't be short.. look for six or more years with the current craze of opt outs along the way..

Repeat: more of a chance to not get a deal done, persists..