Cleveland Guardians Offseason Discussion 2021-22

[Derek]

Is there something about Zach Plesac Im missing here? 27 year old with two mediocre/bad seasons sandwiching a short good season primarily against weak competition, and he’s not a bat misser (by today’s standards). Why is he regarded so highly in this forum?

Who is regarding him highly? Most see him as someone to be traded at some point.

 

[Huber.]

About time. Now lets see how they handle the other 25 roster slots.

Perfect time for them to sell the team and go out on a high note.

 

[Bailivia]

Who is regarding him highly? Most see him as someone to be traded at some point.

Ive seen trade speculation in here that Plesac would get a “haul” and someone said they wouldnt trade him for Jo Adell. To me, that is an extreme overvalue of Plesac (and extreme undervalue of Adell’s potential and prospect status ). Plesac just isn’t that good IMO. But I may be biased because I lean toward bat missers. His 7.0 (6.3 last year) K/9 is underwhelming. Not many pitchers last long these days with those numbers. There aren't that many Kyle Hendriks in the league (and his k/9 is a tad higher).

He’s fine as a BOR starter. I hope Im wrong and he’s great.

 

[Derek]

Ive seen trade speculation in here that Plesac would get a “haul” and someone said they wouldnt trade him for Jo Adell. To me, that is an extreme overvalue of Plesac (and extreme undervalue of Adell’s potential and prospect status ). Plesac just isn’t that good IMO. But I may be biased because I lean toward bat missers. His 7.0 (6.3 last year) K/9 is underwhelming. Not many pitchers last long these days with those numbers. There aren't that many Kyle Hendriks in the league (and his k/9 is a tad higher).

He’s fine as a BOR starter. I hope Im wrong and he’s great.

The not wanting to trade him for Adell speaks more to that poster’s feelings about Adell.

 

[CATS44]

This is utter nonsense and if you don't know that then that's on you. This has nothing to do with salary and the simple fact that you stated they're making the minimum should have donned upon you prior to posting that silliness. Somebody's gonna have to go long before their salary is any kind of issue. Deal with it and your comparison is apples to oranges so go back as far as you want because there hasn't been this kind of SP depth in my lifetime. If they can't survive without 1 pitcher like Plesac then they're fucked anyway. Good grief.

Good grief!

There are tons of young SPs (and MIFs) available to trade for more offense, while not taking away from our biggest advantage.

Over and over again its been shown that GMs will overpay for prospects...prospects with mathematically low chances of ever becoming viable and valuable MLB pitchers/players.

And on this forum...and likely every baseball forum in America....its been shown over and over again that 90% of fans suffer terminally from the 'every prospect is better than what we have' syndrome.

 

[sportscoach]

Ive seen trade speculation in here that Plesac would get a “haul” and someone said they wouldnt trade him for Jo Adell. To me, that is an extreme overvalue of Plesac (and extreme undervalue of Adell’s potential and prospect status ). Plesac just isn’t that good IMO. But I may be biased because I lean toward bat missers. His 7.0 (6.3 last year) K/9 is underwhelming. Not many pitchers last long these days with those numbers. There aren't that many Kyle Hendriks in the league (and his k/9 is a tad higher).

He’s fine as a BOR starter. I hope Im wrong and he’s great.

If you quick glance at BTV and how they value him, he is worth more than 2 WAR MLB bat like a Guirrel Jr from the Jays, plus still has upside and team control. All of those things bring up his value in the trade market...

Let's say the Yankees wanted to get him, it would cost them their 6th, 11th and 14th ranked prospect to get him... so 3 prospects, 1-2 FV 50 prospects plus 1-2 FV 45 prospects. It's not perfect but he wouldn't be cheap to acquire because of a lot of factors.

 

[Tondo]

Who would you rather than Chang?

Miller, better minors track record, better prospect/talent. But they're saving him to be next year's Jake Bauers

 

[CDAV45]

Good grief!

There are tons of young SPs (and MIFs) available to trade for more offense, while not taking away from our biggest advantage.

Over and over again its been shown that GMs will overpay for prospects...prospects with mathematically low chances of ever becoming viable and valuable MLB pitchers/players.

And on this forum...and likely every baseball forum in America....its been shown over and over again that 90% of fans suffer terminally from the 'every prospect is better than what we have' syndrome.

Why don't you be specific so that we can get a good chuckle out of it. Which SP prospects are going to garner a return like Plesac for example? Clearly you aren't paying attention to what is going on. Nobody has stated that "every prospect is better than what we have" and it sure as hell isn't a "syndrome". What could be a "syndrome" is you stating BS like that to support your narrative. Thing is, if you're against trading a SP I can respect that, but don't try to feed me that line of unspecific crap to sell your point.

Basically, the way I see things is that without significantly improving the offense this team isn't going to get far this season. What better time to allow any/all of Myers, Pilkington, Morgan, LA Allen, Battenfield and Morris(when healthy) vy for a spot in the rotation. And that's before Espino and Williams kick in the door. There's also LT Allen, Curry, and Burns that have excellent upsides and should/could be ready by the 23 season. We've been through this a 100 times. Seems you're the only one with reluctance on the subject. You prefer to deal the farm while adamantly being opposed to trading a player on the big league roster supplied from the farm system.

 

[CDAV45]

The not wanting to trade him for Adell speaks more to that poster’s feelings about Adell.

I believe he is referring to me and all I want him to do is point to the evidence that suggests Adell is worth as much or more than Plesac. He can't because it doesn't exist. While Plesac's SO rate might not be appealing to him he has still performed quite well. There is no data at the MLB level to suggest that dealing Plesac for Adell would be a wise investment. It might end up being such, but there is no current data to support that.

Clearly I'm not against trading Plesac, but it needs to be for immediate relief to a need. Everyone here knows what those needs are.

 

[CDAV45]

Miller, better minors track record, better prospect/talent. But they're saving him to be next year's Jake Bauers

I like Miller too Tondo and I think he has the potential to be a very good 2B on both sides of the ball. Alas, that opportunity isn't in the present plans.

 

[Ob1]

Miller, better minors track record, better prospect/talent. But they're saving him to be next year's Jake Bauers

Miller is pretty bad against righties too, right? I like the idea of them splitting time, but against RHP I'm not sure one is better than the other.

 

[CDAV45]

Miller is pretty bad against righties too, right? I like the idea of them splitting time, but against RHP I'm not sure one is better than the other.

Miller has 275 major league AB and those aren't even consistent. So the sample size is so small as to be useless and I don't recall his minor league splits being an issue whatsoever. He's been a fantastic hitter other than his initial MLB exposure. We'll see how or if he rebounds.

 

[sportscoach]

Miller is pretty bad against righties too, right? I like the idea of them splitting time, but against RHP I'm not sure one is better than the other.

In 21, he did better at AAA against righties than lefties. He really hasn't had any issues with righties or lefties honestly...

 

[Gson]

Ive seen trade speculation in here that Plesac would get a “haul” and someone said they wouldnt trade him for Jo Adell. To me, that is an extreme overvalue of Plesac (and extreme undervalue of Adell’s potential and prospect status ). Plesac just isn’t that good IMO. But I may be biased because I lean toward bat missers. His 7.0 (6.3 last year) K/9 is underwhelming. Not many pitchers last long these days with those numbers. There aren't that many Kyle Hendriks in the league (and his k/9 is a tad higher).

He’s fine as a BOR starter. I hope Im wrong and he’s great.

While you can evaluate a pitcher from several perspectives.. there are a few that hold true regardless of perspective:

First & foremost, imho, does he give the team a chance to win every time he takes the ball?.. Resounding yes for Zach Plesac on this..

Secondly.. does he show up healthy & ready every fifth day.. Jury is out on this if you believe things like his behavior deal from the COVID protocol break was avoidable... taking a shirt off resulting in a broken thumb was avoidable.. etc.. In a full season, he's had as many as 190-something innings.. the next highest is in the 140 range.. It's not a problem until it is a problem..

Thirdly.. does he have a go to weapon.. something that makes him special and sets him apart from just about anyone else that pitches.. something that works ALWAYS!!.. Zach Plesac has a good repertoire, but, nothing that can be considered special or a weapon.. The one thing he does incredibly well comes as a two edged sword... pick off move.. no one in the Guardians system or, perhaps, MLB has a better pick off move. A pick off move doesn't matter unless he's putting guys on base.. [shrug]

Overall.. he's a good BOR SP.. that gives enough innings and keeps the team in games.. At the MLB level, that has value.. perhaps not Sean Murphy value (just under Jose Ramirez... so you can see just how subjective valuations are)... but value..

Would you trade Zach Plesac for Mitch Haniger or Lourdes Gurriel Jr or Jo Adell?.. probably (even if you don't like Adell's history... he's showing that promise of talent is beginning to be revealed).. If you go by BTV values.. any one of these three deals would be an overpay by the Guardians, a severe overpay for Haniger.. Would a "lottery ticket" added to any one of these three guys convince the CleFO to make a deal.. probably..

So, in many ways.. Plesac's value is reasonable/good.... approaching 2 to 3 WAR.. Will the return in trade for Plesac plus Plesac's internal replacement surpass keeping him thereby making the decision to make the deal affirmative?.. At this time.. without certainty.. the answer is yes..

It won't take a "lot" to push this club from struggling to score runs to scoring a few or a few more simply by lengthening the order by one bat.. That might be the difference in competing in this division.. or being a .500 club.. again..

Thoughts?..

Can I get another Good Grief???? lol....

 

[EdMonix11]

The issue with Plesac is two-fold.

One, there’s the discipline issues that have been discussed ad nauseam.

And two, he’s lost command of his biggest weapon, his slider. Without his slider, he doesn’t have a pitch to get righties out with. He’s tinkered with its shape— throwing it harder while sacrificing movement— but now the pitch is staying in the zone and getting pounded. He’s not a spin rate guy by any means but he’s trying to be which I attribute to the Bauer/Clevinger influence.

If he doesn’t find his slider, he’s a back end of the rotation starter. Which means you might have to adjust your trade value accordingly….