Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[The Human Q-Tip]

So if you know what you're doing, it shouldn't matter if you pick #1 or #15 or #27 or whatever.

Okay, let's test out the theory that it shouldn't matter if you pick #1, or #15, or #27. Go back to say...the 2003 draft. Here are the first 27 selections:

1. LeBron James

2. Darko Milicic

3. Carmelo Anthony

4. Chris Bosh

5. Dwyane Wade

6. Chris Kaman

7. Kirk Hinrich

8. T.J. Ford

9. Mike Sweetney

10. Jarvis Hayes

11. Mickael Pietrus

12. Nick Collison

13. Marcus Banks

14. Luke Ridnour

15. Reece Gaines

16. Troy Bell

17. Zarko Cabarkapa

18. David West

19. Aleksandar Pavlovic

20. Dahntay Jones

21. Boris Diaw

22. Zoran Planinic

23. Travis Outlaw

24. Brian Cook

25. Carlos Delfino

26. Ndudi Ebi

27. Kendrick Perkins

So with the benefit of hindsight, who would you have taken at #15 or #27 instead of Gaines or Perkins, so that it wouldn't matter that we didn't pick LeBron? Here's the link to the entire list. Feel free to dumpster dive a bit deeper to find that other LeBron James the Cabs could have picked at one of those slots.

http://www.insidehoops.com/draft-2003.shtml

 

[Cavatt]

I'd like Zion a lot, but RJ would be very good and I like the idea of 1-4 being playmakers. You could definitely de-centralize the pg position.

 

[chuck0609]

I'd like Zion a lot, but RJ would be very good and I like the idea of 1-4 being playmakers. You could definitely de-centralize the phone position.

If they end up with RJ, I don’t think anyone would be complaining, with the exception of not picking Zion first.

I really like RJs game. He’s definitely a playmaker who can get down the court. He’ll have to adjust physically to the NBA, but looks to have the tools to develop into a potential All Star.

Said all along, Zion or Barrett. Either one combined with Cedi and the franchise is off and running. There would also be a legit playoff chance next year with a healthy Love.

 

[CavsFTW]

So with the benefit of hindsight, who would you have taken at #15 or #27 instead of Gaines or Perkins, so that it wouldn't matter that we didn't pick LeBron? Here's the link to the entire list. Feel free to dumpster dive a bit deeper to find that other LeBron James the Cabs could have picked at one of those slots.

http://www.insidehoops.com/draft-2003.shtml

Who is the Cabs?

A) Cabby from Escape From New York
B) Mary Kay Cabot
C) Abacab from Genesis
D) All of the above

 

[Cavatt]

Put the team on his back tonight in the 4th at least for a short stretch. Impressive game from Collin

 

[J_J]

Sexton played with lots of heart and carried the team in the 4th quarter. Loved the pass from Love to Sexton from full court, loved the drives and quickness by Sexton, and loved the pass to Clarkson draining 3 when he went to the lane. Thought he took a step up in terms of being a leader when needed.

 

[Nphan]

Good that he's actually getting better and not Speedy Claxton 2.0

 

[2 For The Brew]

His defense was ok at times last night.

Let's remember he's a kid. I'm enjoying watching him play - he's improving and that's all we can expect from a rookie PG.

 

[weepinwillow]

Okay, let's test out the theory that it shouldn't matter if you pick #1, or #15, or #27. Go back to say...the 2003 draft. Here are the first 27 selections:

1. LeBron James

2. Darko Milicic

3. Carmelo Anthony

4. Chris Bosh

5. Dwyane Wade

6. Chris Kaman

7. Kirk Hinrich

8. T.J. Ford

9. Mike Sweetney

10. Jarvis Hayes

11. Mickael Pietrus

12. Nick Collison

13. Marcus Banks

14. Luke Ridnour

15. Reece Gaines

16. Troy Bell

17. Zarko Cabarkapa

18. David West

19. Aleksandar Pavlovic

20. Dahntay Jones

21. Boris Diaw

22. Zoran Planinic

23. Travis Outlaw

24. Brian Cook

25. Carlos Delfino

26. Ndudi Ebi

27. Kendrick Perkins

So with the benefit of hindsight, who would you have taken at #15 or #27 instead of Gaines or Perkins, so that it wouldn't matter that we didn't pick LeBron? Here's the link to the entire list. Feel free to dumpster dive a bit deeper to find that other LeBron James the Cabs could have picked at one of those slots.

http://www.insidehoops.com/draft-2003.shtml

If you really wanted to put this to the test, take the last 15 drafts since Lebron, see if you can find good players 1-14, 15-27 and 27-60 in each of the drafts.

2011 You could have had Kyrie Irving or Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler
2013 you could have had Vic O or Greek Freak or Rudy Gobert
2009 You could have had Hasheem Thabeet or Victor Claver or Christian Eyenge.

The combinations are endless.

Point is there are always good players at various points in the draft. I'm ok with tanking when it's clear you can't make shit happen (like you lose Kevin Love and half the vets mutiny the Head Coach).. but after that: put your best foot forward.

I feel better about this tank job than the previous two, BTW. Cavs are still playing hard into March on a nowhere team. Don't know if it matters, but I'm pretty sure Darius Miles had 2003 summer vacation plans made by October 2002.

 

[David.]

He's had as more games significantly over a point a shot in the last 10 games Than he has the entire year prior

 

[2 For The Brew]

If you really wanted to put this to the test, take the last 15 drafts since Lebron, see if you can find good players 1-14, 15-27 and 27-60 in each of the drafts.

2011 You could have had Kyrie Irving or Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler
2013 you could have had Vic O or Greek Freak or Rudy Gobert
2009 You could have had Hasheem Thabeet or Victor Claver or Christian Eyenge.

The combinations are endless.

Point is there are always good players at various points in the draft. I'm ok with tanking when it's clear you can't make shit happen (like you lose Kevin Love and half the vets mutiny the Head Coach).. but after that: put your best foot forward.

I feel better about this tank job than the previous two, BTW. Cavs are still playing hard into March on a nowhere team. Don't know if it matters, but I'm pretty sure Darius Miles had 2003 summer vacation plans made by October 2002.

We had NO BB front office OR a head coach for the 1986 draft. We had Thaxter Trafton and a lawyer. Embry advised them to draft Daugherty #1 overall. They made the obvious pick of Harper #8. But the these two rank amateurs traded a second round pick for they guy the Mavericks just picked in the second round - Mark Price.

Point is that the draft has significant guesswork. The idea that "we just need smarter people drafting" is a gross oversimplification. Fultz for example was the consensus #1 and that's been a disaster.

Frankly it's not easy to value established players. Take our former big 3 - what's LeBron worth? Will he decline or can he still be a beast for a few years? Can Kevin Love stay healthy and play at or near all-star level? Can you be confident Kyrie wont demand out of wherever he signs and not be a head case?

If it's hard to value established players it's much more difficult to value kids.

Were Milwaukee geniuses because they saw the Greek Freak coming or did they get lucky?

More randomness out there than people like to admit.

 

[Cavatt]

We had NO BB front office OR a head coach for the 1986 draft. We had Thaxter Trafton and a lawyer. Embry advised them to draft Daugherty #1 overall. They made the obvious pick of Harper #8. But the these two rank amateurs traded a second round pick for they guy the Mavericks just picked in the second round - Mark Price.

Point is that the draft has significant guesswork. The idea that "we just need smarter people drafting" is a gross oversimplification. Fultz for example was the consensus #1 and that's been a disaster.

Frankly it's not easy to value established players. Take our former big 3 - what's LeBron worth? Will he decline or can he still be a beast for a few years? Can Kevin Love stay healthy and play at or near all-star level? Can you be confident Kyrie wont demand out of wherever he signs and not be a head case?

If it's hard to value established players it's much more difficult to value kids.

Were Milwaukee geniuses because they saw the Greek Freak coming or did they get lucky?

More randomness out there than people like to admit.

Hindsight on the draft is the absolute worst. No one was pimping Klay Thompson for instance, but he was on the Cavs radar and they tried to take his brother instead. Everyone wanted to take Kanter in that draft for instance, and quite frankly we were better off with TT which many people think was a bad choice. Valanciunas was the consensus pick after Kanter was off the board, and again that might have worked out, but maybe we are ringless with that choice.

Collin is making progress, and surely Kevin Love's spacing and ball movement are a big part of that. I thought he took a step last night and showed how competitive he can be.

Something about losing ballstoppers in Burks and Hood really helped him beyond the Kevin stuff.

 

[I'mWithDan]

There are always 4-8 really good players in every draft and they are picked at all spots, not just the lottery. So if you know what you're doing, it shouldn't matter if you pick #1 or #15 or #27 or whatever.

Huh? 4-8 really good players in every draft? At all spots?

2011 is a complete anomaly....if that's what you want to reference.

From 2011-2017, the draft has produced 21 really good players.

21 - All-Stars (12 - All-Nba Players)

That's only 3 All-Stars per draft.

Out of those players

8/12 - All NBA players were selected in the lottery
13/21 - All-Stars were selected in the lottery

3 of the All Stars and 2 of the All-Nba players outside of the Lottery (Giannis, Kawhi and Vucevic) were taken 16 or higher.

So more than 75% of the upper echelon players go in roughly the top half of the first round.

By the sheer pick volume math:

Top 16 - 8.9% chance for an All-Nba Player
Top 16 - 14.3% chance for an All-Star

Pick 17-60 - 0.7% chance for an All-Nba Player
Pick 17-60 - 1.6% chance for an All-Star

I'll tell you where I want to be drafting.

 

[DeeThree]

Huh? 4-8 really good players in every draft? At all spots?

2011 is a complete anomaly....if that's what you want to reference.

From 2011-2017, the draft has produced 21 really good players.

21 - All-Stars (12 - All-Nba Players)

That's only 3 All-Stars per draft.

Out of those players

8/12 - All NBA players were selected in the lottery
13/21 - All-Stars were selected in the lottery

3 of the All Stars and 2 of the All-Nba players outside of the Lottery (Giannis, Kawhi and Vucevic) were taken 16 or higher.

So more than 75% of the upper echelon players go in roughly the top half of the first round.

By the sheer pick volume math:

Top 16 - 8.9% chance for an All-Nba Player
Top 16 - 14.3% chance for an All-Star

Pick 17-60 - 0.7% chance for an All-Nba Player
Pick 17-60 - 1.6% chance for an All-Star

I'll tell you where I want to be drafting.

Where?

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

We had NO BB front office OR a head coach for the 1986 draft. We had Thaxter Trafton and a lawyer. Embry advised them to draft Daugherty #1 overall. They made the obvious pick of Harper #8. But the these two rank amateurs traded a second round pick for they guy the Mavericks just picked in the second round - Mark Price.

Point is that the draft has significant guesswork. The idea that "we just need smarter people drafting" is a gross oversimplification. Fultz for example was the consensus #1 and that's been a disaster.

Frankly it's not easy to value established players. Take our former big 3 - what's LeBron worth? Will he decline or can he still be a beast for a few years? Can Kevin Love stay healthy and play at or near all-star level? Can you be confident Kyrie wont demand out of wherever he signs and not be a head case?

If it's hard to value established players it's much more difficult to value kids.

Were Milwaukee geniuses because they saw the Greek Freak coming or did they get lucky?

More randomness out there than people like to admit.

Don't forget that they also drafted Johnny Newman, who was pretty solid for about 5-6 years with the Knicks. They had no place for him.

The Cavs 1986 draft is one of the all-time greatest drafts that any team has ever had. It definitely is a crap shoot and I doubt any org is going to put together that kind of draft again - and they drafted Hot Rod the year before. They just had to wait for all the point shaving scandal stuff to get sorted.

While it is a crap shoot, some teams routinely find players. The Cavs used to be pretty good at it and even recently have found guys in the second round that contribute, even if they didn't do it with the Cavs (like Joe Harris).