This will be worth reading if you want to understand Collin's changing player profile. Mostly as a scorer.
Basic numbers
- Collin takes between 3-4 three pointers per game. Three seasons in and this remains his M.O. He's shooting a ridiculous and unsustainable 55% at the moment. His high watermark was 40% his rookie season, he "dipped" to 38% his sophomore season. I feel comfortable penciling him in around 40% going forward.
- Collin is shooting ~80% from the charity stripe so far in 2020. His track record suggests this will improve with a greater sample size. As he's a career 84% FT shooter.
- Speaking of free throws, Collin has added one FTA each season of his career. Though this appears to correlate with a linear increase in shot attempts each season of his career. 14.7 FGA as a rookie, 16.7 FGA as a sophomore, 18 FGA so far this season.
Shot distribution
- 3 pointers continue to represent less and less of Collin's shot attempts. 24.5% - rookie, 23.5% sophomore, 18.5% in 2020. He's still attempting the same raw NUMBER of 3 pointers on average. This is possible because he's shooting more and more overall each season.
- During his rookie reason, 20% of Collin's shots were mid-range. It's now between 7-8% as a sophomore and this season. Collin cut his "bad shots" by more than half.
- Collin has increased his number of attempts at the basket (0-3 feet) and near the basket (3-10 ft) with each season. He basically had no floater game as a rookie (13.5% from 3-10 ft) and has rectified that (24% over the last two season).
- Following up on the at rim and under basket numbers: Collin's at rim FG% has increased from 57%, to 61.5%, to 63% with each season. Near the basket (3-10 ft)? 31% to 39% to 56%.
- Collin is assisted on 68% of his 3PA. This appears fairly stable through his career. For contrast, James Harden is only assisted on 41% of his 3PA.
Analytics
- Collin appears to be getting better at drawing fouls. Collin's free throw rate (FTr) has increased from 21.1%, to 24.6%, to 28.7% in his first three season. FTr neaning what percent of his shot attempts end up with him being fouled. Small sample size on the year three number, but's it's mostly in line with his improvement in other related areas, as well.
- Collin's usage - a stat I hate FYI - is identical to his usage as a rookie. He's doing more with the ball when it's in his hands. At least in terms of scoring.
- Collin's true shooting percentage - a mixture of shooting stats that weighs certain attempts more than others - has gone from 52%, to 56%, to now 64.1%. Career average is .544%. Four time all-star Kemba Walker's career TS% is 53.8%. Collin's 2020 number is buoyed heavily in 2020 by an inflated 3P%, but it should still be a career high.
Takeaways:
- Collin is 14th in the NBA in shot attempts per game. He is 2nd of those 14 in FG%.
- Collin has become a better finisher at and near the basket. He's done this while cutting his mid-range attempts by more than half. This is a more efficient player.
- Collin is dead last of those 14 players in 3PA per game. Curry is attempting 12 per game, McCollum is attempting 10.8, Irving is attempting 9. Career 35% 3P shooter Donovan Mitchell is attempting 9.3 a game. Collin needs to take more of these. Granted, he's probably assisted on these more than the other guys, but he's a good shooter and 3Ps are worth 50% more points than 2s!
I may do more later but I need to get back to my actual job lol.
