Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[daddywags]

They sure as shit expected them more often from Rubio and Garland! Cavatt asked why they didn't have their hands ready. We have seen this from bigs before. If you are used to getting position for rebounds when the goto scorer drives, the pass is a surprise. The way the trend changes is if Sexton shares the ball more often in workouts and games.

This is true.

 

[Douglar]

The traditional version includes shots, assists, and turnovers.

+ 44% of the free throws. That's a constant worked out over time that's a reasonable replacement for tracking 2 shots vs 3 shots vs "and ones" where the shot still counts

 

[Derek]

The traditional version includes shots, assists, and turnovers.

• Usg% - Usage Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.

Basketball-Reference does not include assists in their formula.

 

[bs80]

I think Sexton ends up siging for about 1 million or so dollars less than the whatever that number ends up being just to give the Cavs a small bit of wiggle room. With a 2nd year team option. The Cavs will rescind his QO to be able to sign him to a contract as a UFA instead of a 3 year deal as a RFA.

So 2 years…33-34 million. That’s how I see this playing out. Makes more sense for BOTH sides than Sexton playing on the qualifying offer. Sexton even if he had to play under a team controlled deal next year too would be making like nearly 18 million in year two heading into unrestricted free agency.

Just think this is clearly where this heads. Basically same thing that Bamba did with Orlando.

To be clear I am not completely against 2 yrs 33-34mil with a team option, but that seems to be pretty far from what the Cavs have been rumored to be offering, and possibly more than halfway to what Sexton's camp is asking for.

Given the state of the market, I find it hard pressed to see Collin turning down even 2 yrs 30 mil with the team option over a 1 year QO of 7 mil or whatever it was. Even more so if the Cavs decide to pull the QO altogether so that it's not even an option.

 

[CavsKermit]

• Usg% - Usage Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * ((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Tm FGA + 0.44 * Tm FTA + Tm TOV)). Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.

Basketball-Reference does not include assists in their formula.

538 wrote a piece about how different outlets have different paradigms and pundits who rely on them don't even know that.

Obviously, a website like basketball reference is going to be more friendly in their definition to distributors.

 

[Douglar]

Collin Sexton deserves far more than what the free agent market appears willing to pay him

Sexton is getting offered far less than inferior players

www.cbssports.com

.. Collin Sexton is sitting on a three-year offer from the Cavaliers worth roughly $40 million. He is not known to have received any other offers. Before you decide whether or not that offer is fair, I'd just like to offer a list of players making more per year than the $13.3 million Sexton would average if he signed that deal:​

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• Spencer Dinwiddie signed a deal worth $18 million per year coming off of a partially torn ACL.
• Tyus Jones will make $14.5 million per year on the deal he just signed despite starting as many games in his career (72) as Sexton did as a rookie.
• Markelle Fultz is making a whopping $16 million per year despite scoring fewer points in his entire five-year career (1,423) than Sexton did in his last healthy season (1,460). I should point out that Sexton reached that total in just 60 games because COVID-19 shortened the schedule.

Why don't teams want to pay Sexton?​

For the less Twitter-inclined among us, Sexton's ball-hogging exploits became something of a meme earlier in his career. Here's one play, in particular, that helped craft that reputation for Sexton in large part because of Kevin Love's hilarious reaction.​

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Playmaking growth among those less inclined towards passing tends to be fairly linear. Defense is much more of a wildcard. Some players get it. Some don't. Thus far, Sexton hasn't. Avert your eyes, because his defensive metrics are truly unpleasant to behold.​

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...​

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What makes Sexton so potentially valuable?​

Scoring a lot of points is hard. Scoring a lot of points efficiently is harder. Scoring a lot of points efficiently early in your career is perhaps the single hardest thing to do in all of basketball. There are few greater barometers of future stardom than that, and Sexton checks all three boxes. Only 16 players have ever scored 24 points per game on 57 percent or better true shooting before turning 23. Sexton is one of them. The other 15 all went on to make All-NBA Teams. You've probably heard of most of them. Michael Jordan. Kevin Durant. Luka Doncic. And a player we keep coming back to in this story: Booker.​

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Sexton isn't as good as Booker. He might never be. His offensive skillset just isn't as diverse. ​

 

[Cavatt]

Collin Sexton deserves far more than what the free agent market appears willing to pay him

Sexton is getting offered far less than inferior players

www.cbssports.com

.. Collin Sexton is sitting on a three-year offer from the Cavaliers worth roughly $40 million. He is not known to have received any other offers. Before you decide whether or not that offer is fair, I'd just like to offer a list of players making more per year than the $13.3 million Sexton would average if he signed that deal:​

​

• Spencer Dinwiddie signed a deal worth $18 million per year coming off of a partially torn ACL.
• Tyus Jones will make $14.5 million per year on the deal he just signed despite starting as many games in his career (72) as Sexton did as a rookie.
• Markelle Fultz is making a whopping $16 million per year despite scoring fewer points in his entire five-year career (1,423) than Sexton did in his last healthy season (1,460). I should point out that Sexton reached that total in just 60 games because COVID-19 shortened the schedule.

Why don't teams want to pay Sexton?​

For the less Twitter-inclined among us, Sexton's ball-hogging exploits became something of a meme earlier in his career. Here's one play, in particular, that helped craft that reputation for Sexton in large part because of Kevin Love's hilarious reaction.​

​

​

​

....​

​

Playmaking growth among those less inclined towards passing tends to be fairly linear. Defense is much more of a wildcard. Some players get it. Some don't. Thus far, Sexton hasn't. Avert your eyes, because his defensive metrics are truly unpleasant to behold.​

​

...​

​

What makes Sexton so potentially valuable?​

Scoring a lot of points is hard. Scoring a lot of points efficiently is harder. Scoring a lot of points efficiently early in your career is perhaps the single hardest thing to do in all of basketball. There are few greater barometers of future stardom than that, and Sexton checks all three boxes. Only 16 players have ever scored 24 points per game on 57 percent or better true shooting before turning 23. Sexton is one of them. The other 15 all went on to make All-NBA Teams. You've probably heard of most of them. Michael Jordan. Kevin Durant. Luka Doncic. And a player we keep coming back to in this story: Booker.​

​

Sexton isn't as good as Booker. He might never be. His offensive skillset just isn't as diverse. ​

That last point is what I keep coming back to. Maybe he is the worst of those guys, but he still is very special as a scorer. There is no example of a guy that can score like he has that has been offered so little.

 

[Derek]

That last point is what I keep coming back to. Maybe he is the worst of those guys, but he still is very special as a scorer. There is no example of a guy that can score like he has that has been offered so little.

I think that’s the disconnect.

You say “very special” where I think most would say “pretty good”.

You mention the lack of examples of guys that can score like he has being offered so little, but I struggle to find many examples of guys like Collin at all.

Good volume scorer on average efficiency, but he’s the size of a PG, can’t play PG, and can’t defend anybody. Due to the lack of precedent, it’s easy to see why there’s the division there is on his value.

 

[Boobie4Three]

That last point is what I keep coming back to. Maybe he is the worst of those guys, but he still is very special as a scorer. There is no example of a guy that can score like he has that has been offered so little.

It just goes to show, despite management saying they want Sexton around, that's just political theatre and they don't want to rock the boat, as their financial intentions indicate otherwise. They literally put the lowest offer out there possible, but at the same time it is the right strategic move so I get it. Can't high ball him early in the summer with a good negotiator. Very polarizing...it's a win win for the cavs but we gotta keep the Bull...

 

[Randolphkeys]

That last point is what I keep coming back to. Maybe he is the worst of those guys, but he still is very special as a scorer. There is no example of a guy that can score like he has that has been offered so little.

Comparing Sexton to two absolutely brutal contracts that were unloaded and late blooming Tyus Jones ain't gonna win you the debate tournament.

 

[inliner311]

Comparing Sexton to two absolutely brutal contracts that were unloaded and late blooming Tyus Jones ain't gonna win you the debate tournament.

I think he was referring to this part of Douglar's post

What makes Sexton so potentially valuable?​

Scoring a lot of points is hard. Scoring a lot of points efficiently is harder. Scoring a lot of points efficiently early in your career is perhaps the single hardest thing to do in all of basketball. There are few greater barometers of future stardom than that, and Sexton checks all three boxes. Only 16 players have ever scored 24 points per game on 57 percent or better true shooting before turning 23. Sexton is one of them. The other 15 all went on to make All-NBA Teams. You've probably heard of most of them. Michael Jordan. Kevin Durant. Luka Doncic. And a player we keep coming back to in this story: Booker.

 

[foucault87]

I think that’s the disconnect.

You say “very special” where I think most would say “pretty good”.

You mention the lack of examples of guys that can score like he has being offered so little, but I struggle to find many examples of guys like Collin at all.

Good volume scorer on average efficiency, but he’s the size of a PG, can’t play PG, and can’t defend anybody. Due to the lack of precedent, it’s easy to see why there’s the division there is on his value.

The only successful player that comes to mind of the description is AI. And he was quite a bit better than Collin

 

[inliner311]

That last point is what I keep coming back to. Maybe he is the worst of those guys, but he still is very special as a scorer. There is no example of a guy that can score like he has that has been offered so little.

I think the offer is low because the team has yet to figure out how to properly use him. I think alot of that is the roster he had the first 3 years he was here. Mobley, Rubio, Markkanen, and OA may help. He only got 11 games with the first 3. The triple towers is a nice lineup but I think we have to find more lineups and they didn't really get the chance to find where Sexton can fit in with this better roster. JBB isn't an offensive minded coach which I think has hurt us build balanced lineups around our offensive talent. JBB's default is to add defense.

It took the Sun's a while to find a formula that made Booker work.

 

[CavsKermit]

That last point is what I keep coming back to. Maybe he is the worst of those guys, but he still is very special as a scorer. There is no example of a guy that can score like he has that has been offered so little.

You need a very special roster around for him to start and be net positive, and even then, you're hoping he'll be a net positive. Most teams don't have the personnel and most good players want touches as well. Whether Sexton can fit into an offense where everyone eats, and has the starting unit operating at peak efficiency, remains an open question.

Teams aren't going to give Sexton the minutes and FGAs he needs per game to continue to score at that level unless they're convinced they can win while doing so. They're pricing that into their offers.

Also, he's got a repaired meniscus and that turns into a recurring problem for some players.

 

[Cement]

Sexton scored all those points on bad teams and I’m skeptical of players who are like that.