Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[sportscoach]

A trade package with Plesac, Karinchak and lets say Jones... Should more than fill a hole or 2.

Karinchak isn't going anywhere...We just have to find a way to get two MLB bats without giving up to many of the main nucleus... Karinchak and Plesac are both apart of that.

 

[Criznit]

Karinchak isn't going anywhere...We just have to find a way to get two MLB bats without giving up to many of the main nucleus... Karinchak and Plesac are both apart of that.

What makes you say that? He (Karinchak) got demoted to Columbus this year.. Plesac is already on the short list of trade candidates.

Disagree completely they are part of the "main nucleus".

 

[sportscoach]

What makes you say that? He (Karinchak) got demoted to Columbus this year.. Plesac is already on the short list of trade candidates.

Disagree completely they are part of the "main nucleus".

Karinchak got demoted since he was hurt. That was stated a lot when he was struggling. He had a minor, nagging injury that messed with his mechanics. He is very much apart of the future plans. He wasn't demoted cause of anything else even though he stated his anti vaxx views, from what I can tell, he doesn't have any problems with his team mates or coaches.

Plesac on the other hand, has gotten himself in trouble with the organization and that has put him on a short leash that way, but to say he isn't one of the main guys on the roster going into 22 would definitely be a lie. Until he is off the roster he is apart of the nucleus of this roster, but he is attainable if teams offer the right deal...

 

[CATS44]

If I can get Reynolds...

Switch hitter...who hits for average and power...above average BB rate...below average K rate...plays all three OF spots...four years of control..

for Espino and Freeman, or for any two prospects Pittsburgh wants...

He is in a new Guardians uniform this afternoon.

I'd pay even more.

Reynolds produces with little protection in front or behind him. Imagine what he'd do with Straw in front and JRam behind. Or imagine what JRam would do between Straw and Reynolds.

In 2021 he was the 10th best position player in baseball. Over the past three years he has been the tenth best OF in baseball.

Better than Comforto, Bradley, Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, Merrifield, and Castellanos.

Where do I sign?

 

[Gson]

A trade package with Plesac, Karinchak and lets say Jones... Should more than fill a hole or 2.

or three..with a well thought of prospect carrying the luggage..

 

[CATS44]

Such a trade had better fill multiple holes...and by a big margin....because it would leave big holes in the rotation and pen.

Otherwise, its just spinning wheels.

For such a trade to make sense, it would have to fill three holes at the MLB level with good, young, productive, controllable players....or one inexpensive, controllable mega star plus a high end prospect/or MLB ready SP.

 

[CDAV45]

Great argument.

Plesac is incredibly overrated. I like him, he's a decent BOR, but basically a 1 WAR per 100 IP SP. Mid to high 4 career FIP/xFIP and projected for more of that next season. Eli Morgan can give us that.
Kirk is worth more H2H and he's got an extra year of control. His bat is special and we need impact bats.

I was being silly and not really arguing. I don't feel the need to change your mind, even if I think it's a terrible idea.

From a realistic stance since you seem to want an "argument". Coach has already explained to you why it wouldn't work, and I find it hard to believe any team in the league would trade a SP like Plesac for a fat, poor defensive C with a decent(not outstanding) offensive profile. It got even more ridiculous when you suggested adding more with Plesac going to the Blue Jays.

This isn't going to happen because it shouldn't happen, but I still appreciate you and your posts Tondo so don't take any offense to my slant.

 

[CDAV45]

If I can get Reynolds...

Switch hitter...who hits for average and power...above average BB rate...below average K rate...plays all three OF spots...four years of control..

for Espino and Freeman, or for any two prospects Pittsburgh wants...

He is in a new Guardians uniform this afternoon.

I'd pay even more.

Reynolds produces with little protection in front or behind him. Imagine what he'd do with Straw in front and JRam behind. Or imagine what JRam would do between Straw and Reynolds.

In 2021 he was the 10th best position player in baseball. Over the past three years he has been the tenth best OF in baseball.

Better than Comforto, Bradley, Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, Merrifield, and Castellanos.

Where do I sign?

Fair points CATS, and I would probably pull the trigger on that deal myself. Reynolds is the type of hitter that you, me, and every Guardians' fan hold in high regard.

 

[Tondo]

The only way to rank SPs is to compare them to all SPs. You can't merely compare him to #1/2 SPs that we've had over the last ten years.

You can't also ignore the fact that he pitched after breaking his thumb.

You may not like him, because of his off field actions over the last two years, and expect that at some point he will be moved like Bauer and Clevinger. Thats legit.

But his production on the field since
arriving makes him a #3 SP in the AL. His ERA puts him in the top 40% of all starters. His FIP puts him in the top 60%. His ERA+ is 15% better than average.

And at the same points in their respective careers...and even at the same age...he has been better than Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer. Now, I dont expect Plesac to end up being one of those three...but at 26 yrs old, I didn't expect any of them to become what they became.

We've had other head cases...Lee, Cookie, and Bauer come to mind. Two of them turned things around in a big way at age 27...one at age 29. Plesac will be 27 in January.

I'm not trading him, unless the return is close to ridiculous.

That's some hardcore cherry picking stats.

Plesac is bottom 3rd in FIP/xFIP since 2019 among 150+ SP in MLB and below avg in ERA and fWAR. Overall, that's pretty much a SP4, but whatever floats your boat. And he's been lucky on the surface stats. He's just coming off a 6 K/9 season when everyone is striking out, even Eli Morgan has a 8+ K/9.

 

[CDAV45]

That's some hardcore cherry picking stats.

Plesac is bottom 3rd in FIP/xFIP since 2019 among 150+ SP in MLB and below avg in ERA and fWAR. Overall, that's pretty much a SP4, but whatever floats your boat. And he's been lucky on the surface stats. He's just coming off a 6 K/9 season when everyone is striking out, even Eli Morgan has a 8+ K/9.

His ERA since being called up in 2019 as a 24 yr old is 3.93. That's league average?

He's not lucky and you seem to be the one trying to make a story out of content that isn't there. He's a pitch to contact pitcher, which by the very nature of how FIP numbers are derived would seem to undervalue a pitcher like Plesac. That's exactly what's happening here. You're trying to use FIP to explain away Plesac's performance and that's not what the stat is supposed to be used for in my understanding.

Regardless, Chernoff isn't going to trade a SP like Plesac(whatever that may be) for an overweight, poor defensive C. I don't really get why anyone would take the stance you're taking. Kirk isn't just "chunky" he's fat, and if he wants to have much of a future in this sport then he better start taking his conditioning seriously.

 

[Tondo]

The point of FIP/xFIP is future performance. Plesac had a large gap between ERA and those in a small sample and the regression has started with more innings. That's why he's projected for more of the same, mid to high 4 ERA while you hang your argumentative hat on a bunch of debut starts in 2019 when the league didn't know him yet. The trend is not your friend here.

 

[sportscoach]

The point of FIP/xFIP is future performance. Plesac had a large gap between ERA and those in a small sample and the regression has started with more innings. That's why he's projected for more of the same, mid to high 4 ERA while you hang your argumentative hat on a bunch of debut starts in 2019 when the league didn't know him yet. The trend is not your friend here.

There is a high gap, but in 20, it was within reason and 21, he broke a thumb... I'm waiting til we see him in 22 to figure out which year was the correct Plesac. He's always going to be a little better than his FIP...

 

[CDAV45]

The point of FIP/xFIP is future performance. Plesac had a large gap between ERA and those in a small sample and the regression has started with more innings. That's why he's projected for more of the same, mid to high 4 ERA while you hang your argumentative hat on a bunch of debut starts in 2019 when the league didn't know him yet. The trend is not your friend here.

Yes, it's a predictive stat that isn't very accurate and the factors are almost endless.

 

[sportscoach]

Yes, it's a predictive stat that isn't very accurate and the factors are almost endless.

Most pitchers usually end up with similar career ERA and FIP. Those who don't are usually relievers because of limited innings not starters, so @Tondo isn't wrong in a fair amount of his arguments, it's just too soon in my mind to say one way or the other cause of the injury this season. I dont see Plesac being a number one, but I feel he is better than a number 4.

Tondo wins the argument based off of stats, while the eye test and intangibles lean towards the other side. 22 is the season that will kind of decide which one wins. Don't forget Lee was almost cut the year before he won a Cy Young. I always felt like Plesac was one more legit pitch away from being a very good pitcher...

Also via baseball savant, Plesac's Fastball, Slider and change-up weren't nearly as effective as the two previous seasons (even his rookie season), part of the reason why I am giving him the benefit of the doubt cause of a thumb injury. A full offseason to be healthy, I think he will be way better than 21, but not to the 20 numbers...

 

[CDAV45]

Most pitchers usually end up with similar career ERA and FIP. Those who don't are usually relievers because of limited innings not starters, so @Tondo isn't wrong in a fair amount of his arguments, it's just too soon in my mind to say one way or the other cause of the injury this season. I dont see Plesac being a number one, but I feel he is better than a number 4.

Tondo wins the argument based off of stats, while the eye test and intangibles lean towards the other side. 22 is the season that will kind of decide which one wins. Don't forget Lee was almost cut the year before he won a Cy Young. I always felt like Plesac was one more legit pitch away from being a very good pitcher...

Also via baseball savant, Plesac's Fastball, Slider and change-up weren't nearly as effective as the two previous seasons (even his rookie season), part of the reason why I am giving him the benefit of the doubt cause of a thumb injury. A full offseason to be healthy, I think he will be way better than 21, but not to the 20 numbers...

Plesac is not a #1 nor has anyone ever suggested that he is to my knowledge. However, he is a MOR SP that pitches to contact and limits damage.

WTF are you talking about? There is no argument using FIP and the evidence is circumstantial and wouldn't stand up in any kind of court. And yes, being healthy from the start of the season plays a big part in any pitchers performance. I do agree that the 2020 numbers are not a realistic target for Plesac, just like Bieber's weren't a realistic repeat either. Like most cases, the truth lies somewhere between the ups and downs.

The entire reason for this debate(or whatever it is) is that Tondo suggested trading Plesac and others to Toronto for Kirk and it doesn't take an insider to know that will never happen. The rest is semantics.