Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CDAV45]

Some talk about how valuable Straw is and how much he has improved our lineup and even outfield defense. No issue there.

HOWEVER.

This is the same guy who was ejected from the 26 man roster of current World Series combatant - The Houston Astros....

Have they missed a beat since his "loss"?

Nope.. They had better options...

Point is, the more guys like Straw and Rosario (IN PARTICULAR) in your lineup the more average you get. You need guys like JRam, Franmil and even Bradley types to maximize their values..

This

 

[CDAV45]

There’s no way I’m trading Plesac for Kirk and his muffin top let alone adding to it. Hell to the no.

 

[Tondo]

There’s no way I’m trading Plesac for Kirk and his muffin top let alone adding to it. Hell to the no.

Great argument.

Plesac is incredibly overrated. I like him, he's a decent BOR, but basically a 1 WAR per 100 IP SP. Mid to high 4 career FIP/xFIP and projected for more of that next season. Eli Morgan can give us that.
Kirk is worth more H2H and he's got an extra year of control. His bat is special and we need impact bats.

 

[sportscoach]

Great argument.

Plesac is incredibly overrated. I like him, he's a decent BOR, but basically a 1 WAR per 100 IP SP. Mid to high 4 career FIP/xFIP and projected for more of that next season. Eli Morgan can give us that.
Kirk is worth more H2H and he's got an extra year of control. His bat is special and we need impact bats.

Plesac has 5.1 WAR in 300 innings so in that sense your numbers are a bit off... He is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher in 150ish innings.

I like Kirk as a bat, but he isn't a C honestly and his numbers WAR wise isn't greater than Plesac's production since he isn't much of a fielder...

Now we need a bat, but we would want more than Kirk for Plesac. I'd target Guirrel and McGuire over Kirk and a prospect just because Guirrel can at least get average fielding in LF and McGuire is a plus catcher defensively and had team control so he can be Lavastida's backup in 23...

 

[Tondo]

Plesac has 5.1 WAR in 300 innings so in that sense your numbers are a bit off... He is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher in 150ish innings.

I like Kirk as a bat, but he isn't a C honestly and his numbers WAR wise isn't greater than Plesac's production since he isn't much of a fielder...

Now we need a bat, but we would want more than Kirk for Plesac. I'd target Guirrel and McGuire over Kirk and a prospect just because Guirrel can at least get average fielding in LF and McGuire is a plus catcher defensively and had team control so he can be Lavastida's backup in 23...

3.4 fWAR (which I prefer to bWAR if we're taking future/expected vs actual/luck, seriously) in 314 actual IP, and projected for 1.0 fWAR in 2022.

Kirk gets a 2.1 fWAR projection (and 1.8 career fWAR in only 260 PA), and again, he's still only 22yo and yes, he's actually outperformed Jose Ramirez at the same age level, both MLB and minors.

And even as a 2 WAR SP for Plesac, that's no. 4 SP territory. Our 3rd best hitter should be worth more than our no.4 SP.
Or in other words, the drop off from Plesac to his replacement (Morgan/Morris), isn't nearly as significant as the drop off from Kirk to Hedges or even A. Rosario (as our 3rd "best" hitter, which should be a sad enough statement to get my point across. On a good contender, Rosario should be our 7th best bat).

 

[Gson]

Plesac has 5.1 WAR in 300 innings so in that sense your numbers are a bit off... He is about a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher in 150ish innings.

I like Kirk as a bat, but he isn't a C honestly and his numbers WAR wise isn't greater than Plesac's production since he isn't much of a fielder...

Now we need a bat, but we would want more than Kirk for Plesac. I'd target Guirrel and McGuire over Kirk and a prospect just because Guirrel can at least get average fielding in LF and McGuire is a plus catcher defensively and had team control so he can be Lavastida's backup in 23...

Proposed at BTV Trade # 59900: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Reese McGuire and Jordan Groshans for Zach Plesac, Nolan Jones and Will Benson and Logan S Allen. The values are as okay as that web sight can deliver (Tondo is right..it's a joke.. I treat it as another evaluation tool).. and the deal makes sense.. McGuire is more like the kind of catcher the Guards covet.. the other two guys can hit.. at least some.. It would hurt to give up BOTH Plesac and Jones.. but you have to crack a few eggs to make an omelette..

 

[sportscoach]

3.4 fWAR (which I prefer to bWAR if we're taking future/expected vs actual/luck, seriously) in 314 actual IP, and projected for 1.0 fWAR in 2022.

Kirk gets a 2.1 fWAR projection (and 1.8 career fWAR in only 260 PA), and again, he's still only 22yo and yes, he's actually outperformed Jose Ramirez at the same age level, both MLB and minors.

And even as a 2 WAR SP for Plesac, that's no. 4 SP territory. Our 3rd best hitter should be worth more than our no.4 SP.
Or in other words, the drop off from Plesac to his replacement (Morgan/Morris), isn't nearly as significant as the drop off from Kirk to Hedges or even A. Rosario (as our 3rd "best" hitter, which should be a sad enough statement to get my point across. On a good contender, Rosario should be our 7th best bat).

Plesac (via baseball reference) had a 1.2 WAR in 21, but a 2.1 WAR in 8 starts in 20 (which if a full season makes him have easily over a 6 WAR) Also how much did that broken thumb effect his 21 numbers? I think he sits somewhere in between and will get 3-4 WAR pretty easily when healthy and not being an idiot...

I feel like Kirk as a hitter could put up a 3 WAR but his issue is the fact he is a contact hitter and he won't ever hit a ton of HRs, so that will effect his WAR somewhat cause of that. Now my biggest question, can he field well enough? He has an arm, but I don't trust him as an MLB catcher and catcher is a position that I'd you cannot trust the person then it's not worth having him regardless of his bat...

So my next question is... Do you believe Kirk can be at least average at the catcher position at the MLB level?

 

[sportscoach]

Proposed at BTV Trade # 59900: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Reese McGuire and Jordan Groshans for Zach Plesac, Nolan Jones and Will Benson and Logan S Allen. The values are as okay as that web sight can deliver (Tondo is right..it's a joke.. I treat it as another evaluation tool).. and the deal makes sense.. McGuire is more like the kind of catcher the Guards covet.. the other two guys can hit.. at least some.. It would hurt to give up BOTH Plesac and Jones.. but you have to crack a few eggs to make an omelette..

Looking at that trade, I am not sure if it actually helps us...

Plesac to me is a 3 WAR pitcher and Guirrel is a 2ish WAR hitter plus McGuire would help offset the loss of Perez (if not retained).

Now for the rest of the deal... Groshans and Jones are about equal as prospects. One is a better contact and the other will have more power... Jones is a year ahead of Groshans so a swap doesn't make any sense to me...

Why not just go.. Plesac for Guirrel, McGuire and Kevin Smith....

Then we go... INF/OF Jones, SP Morgan and SP Logan Allen Sr, to the Angels for 1B Walsh, RHP Marceaux, and SS Vera... I am thinking Jones takes over for Walsh at 1B.

 

[CATS44]

Plesac and his contract are incredibly under valued on this board.

First, he isn't a BOR. He's a solid MOR. Its not a valid assessment to rate him against the rotation he is in or against the recent elite SPs we have had. He has to be evaluated against every SP in the AL.

In the three seasons since he arrived, Plesac has put up the 34th highest fWAR in the AL. (Min 200 IP)

Among those SPs, he ranks 20th in ERA and 36th in FIP. Although he isn't a K guy, his walk rate ranks 13th...and he doesn't allow a lot of good contact...his BABIP ranks 3rd.

And he is pre arby and under control for four years.

The step down from Plesac to Morgan is immense. If we want to improve the team for 2022 by trading Plesac, the return has to be an upgrade that is more than immense....and lasts for at least three years.

Kirk doesn't come close to doing it. He is a 5'8"-260 lb DH who is terrible behind the plate. In the equivalent to a fourth of a season, he has allowed 24 PB/WP and thrown out 17% of SB attempts.

With the Indians in twice as many innings, Hedges has allowed 25 PB/WP and thrown out 30% of SB attempts.

There is no way I'm turning over control of my most valuable assets..starting pitching and Clase...to a butcher behind the plate...and I dont need a DH with a huge weight problem.

 

[Tondo]

Looking at that trade, I am not sure if it actually helps us...

Plesac to me is a 3 WAR pitcher and Guirrel is a 2ish WAR hitter plus McGuire would help offset the loss of Perez (if not retained).

Now for the rest of the deal... Groshans and Jones are about equal as prospects. One is a better contact and the other will have more power... Jones is a year ahead of Groshans so a swap doesn't make any sense to me...

Why not just go.. Plesac for Guirrel, McGuire and Kevin Smith....

Then we go... INF/OF Jones, SP Morgan and SP Logan Allen Sr, to the Angels for 1B Walsh, RHP Marceaux, and SS Vera... I am thinking Jones takes over for Walsh at 1B.

Well, I guess we disagree by a lot. Plesac, by all (past) measures and projections is a solid, but unspectacular SP. FIP/xFIP between 4.5-5 are not MOR numbers, sorry. He's a decent 4th/5th SP and tricked a lot of us, me included, that he might be more, but that was a mirage. That's why I wanted to sell high before 2021 and still do now, though less value to his name.

Groshans is a much better prospect than N. Jones, both offense and defense. Not even close.
Angels won't trade Walsh, he was their 3rd best hitter. T. Ward could be available because of Trout, Adell, Marsh (and Upton).

Kirk isn't a good C, but use him part time there and DH. I want and buy the bat. Wouldn't mind Gurriel, but I believe he'd cost more than the others mentioned (close to Kirk, but 2 years less of control).

 

[Gson]

Well, I guess we disagree by a lot. Plesac, by all (past) measures and projections is a solid, but unspectacular SP. FIP/xFIP between 4.5-5 are not MOR numbers, sorry. He's a decent 4th/5th SP and tricked a lot of us, me included, that he might be more, but that was a mirage. That's why I wanted to sell high before 2021 and still do now, though less value to his name.

Groshans is a much better prospect than N. Jones, both offense and defense. Not even close.
Angels won't trade Walsh, he was their 3rd best hitter. T. Ward could be available because of Trout, Adell, Marsh (and Upton).

Kirk isn't a good C, but use him part time there and DH. I want and buy the bat. Wouldn't mind Gurriel, but I believe he'd cost more than the others mentioned (close to Kirk, but 2 years less of control).

MOR v BOR.. is all nonsense.. MOR/BOR numbers do not come with a set value.. Isn't a mirage supposed to trick people.. ? just more nonsense..

Agree on Groshans.. He's been moved around a bit to accomodate other prospects and priorities of the Jays organization, The places he's been moved to include 2B, 3B and OF.. He's not a speed merchant, but with his bat.. the Guaridans could do worse by putting him in LF for the next 10 years.. sort of Alex Gordon-esque..

Gurriel Jr.. is more than you've intimated.. i.e. he's better than "not minding".. Gurriel's contract is less than Eddie Rosario's re AAV... and he hits..

Kirk has to improve to become a "not good catcher".. and the Guardians absolutely do not need a DH..or, in this case a second DH..

Thoughts?

 

[CATS44]

The only way to rank SPs is to compare them to all SPs. You can't merely compare him to #1/2 SPs that we've had over the last ten years.

You can't also ignore the fact that he pitched after breaking his thumb.

You may not like him, because of his off field actions over the last two years, and expect that at some point he will be moved like Bauer and Clevinger. Thats legit.

But his production on the field since
arriving makes him a #3 SP in the AL. His ERA puts him in the top 40% of all starters. His FIP puts him in the top 60%. His ERA+ is 15% better than average.

And at the same points in their respective careers...and even at the same age...he has been better than Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer. Now, I dont expect Plesac to end up being one of those three...but at 26 yrs old, I didn't expect any of them to become what they became.

We've had other head cases...Lee, Cookie, and Bauer come to mind. Two of them turned things around in a big way at age 27...one at age 29. Plesac will be 27 in January.

I'm not trading him, unless the return is close to ridiculous.

 

[sportscoach]

When it comes to Plesac he is a high intangible pitcher on the mound with decent abilities. Guys like that usually outpitch their projections. Also I feel like the injury put his development back and I think he should rebound in 22. He's too much of a competitor to allow 21 to happen again. I am gonna follow my hunch and say he will be good in 22....

Groshans is a year behind Jones developmentally, so I dont expect he can be of any help in 22 and as a contact hitter, Groshans is the better of the two players. Jones has way more power and will get way more walks (and SOs). They are two different style of bats, Jones is closer to the 3 outcome while Groshans just hits. In context, I actually think Jones is the better for this roster since we actually lack depth in the power department. Either way, I wouldn't have qualms with either guy, but I don't think Jones is going anywhere unless it nets us a Reynolds....

Guirrel actually I think is a definite target this off season. We need his production and with three years of team control, first 2 at less than 11 million... I feel like he is better than just about anyone else we could get in FA at the end of the day at that price.

Guardians prioritize defense over offense at catcher and if I can get McGuire and Guirrel in a deal then I'd like that...

I think from the Jays, I'd like to get Kevin Smith or Otto Lopez. Smith has some power while Lopez is a heavy contact. They can play a bunch of positions and I think should be solid rookie candidates in 22... Thats just following my hunch though so we shall see. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kevin Smith get moved to Cleveland since he is blocked if they keep there full roster.

 

[Gson]

When it comes to Plesac he is a high intangible pitcher on the mound with decent abilities. Guys like that usually outpitch their projections. Also I feel like the injury put his development back and I think he should rebound in 22. He's too much of a competitor to allow 21 to happen again. I am gonna follow my hunch and say he will be good in 22....

Groshans is a year behind Jones developmentally, so I dont expect he can be of any help in 22 and as a contact hitter, Groshans is the better of the two players. Jones has way more power and will get way more walks (and SOs). They are two different style of bats, Jones is closer to the 3 outcome while Groshans just hits. In context, I actually think Jones is the better for this roster since we actually lack depth in the power department. Either way, I wouldn't have qualms with either guy, but I don't think Jones is going anywhere unless it nets us a Reynolds....

Guirrel actually I think is a definite target this off season. We need his production and with three years of team control, first 2 at less than 11 million... I feel like he is better than just about anyone else we could get in FA at the end of the day at that price.

Guardians prioritize defense over offense at catcher and if I can get McGuire and Guirrel in a deal then I'd like that...

I think from the Jays, I'd like to get Kevin Smith or Otto Lopez. Smith has some power while Lopez is a heavy contact. They can play a bunch of positions and I think should be solid rookie candidates in 22... Thats just following my hunch though so we shall see. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kevin Smith get moved to Cleveland since he is blocked if they keep there full roster.

hmmm.. some thoughts.. @sportscoach

Inre Plesac: We can go round and round on Plesac's value.. but, at the end of the day.. he's a solid MLB pitcher that has a unique skill (running game control) and an average to above average arsenal. He's young, controllable and a competitor. He's the goods.. He's what every Major League club covets.. Whether he's good or not in 2022 is irrelevant to the discussion..

Inre Groshans: The last "tool" to develop is usually power. When a youngster (read: minor leaguer) sacrifices contact/swing mechanics for power inevitably, the K-rate soars while the walk rate plummets.. Jones takes his walks.. But, this is the normal well traveled pattern for most prospects. Groshans, imho, is less than a season away from his first and most important big league opportunity..

Inre Reynolds: Pipe dream.. not happening unless names like Freemand AND Espino are in the discussion.. and that should END the discussion, imho..

Inre: Otto Lopez v Kevin Smith.. Why not both?.. add Brad Zimmer, Bracho or Tanner Burns or something that makes sense for both sides.. If only one.. then Otto Lopez..

Overall.. all the guys from the Jays are the right price.. only Lourdes Gurriel Jr makes a significant salary...

Thoughts?

 

[Criznit]

A trade package with Plesac, Karinchak and lets say Jones... Should more than fill a hole or 2.