Evan Mobley: 2023 All Defensive 1st Team

[buzzdog]

I am glad we can disagree and still discuss this in a civil manner. I agree with many of your points. I am still taking Garland. Is that really that wild? I would venture to think that there are others on this board who would take Garland over Mobley. They must exist.

Both are on our team. Why does anyone have to "take" one over the other?

 

[amil99]

4>1

1 as a 2nd option “coincidentally “ when Kyrie and Love were both out and he didn’t even play good that series. 2 as a “3rd option” to 2 nuclear MVP level players and another as a 4th option behind Curry, Poole and Wiggins. He like the other player on the Warriors are the sun of their parts he can’t hold Kyries jock strap talent wise. He is a good player tho, great in the Warrior system during his prime years but not on Kyries level

 

[Jscc]

I was going through some older NBA highlights and Amar'e Stoudemire popped up where he set a screen for Steve Nash. It looked exactly like how Mobley sets screens i.e. slipping the screen or just chipping rather than being a cement wall the defender runs into.

So I went back and watched a good chunk of Nash's pick and roll/pop game with Stoudemire to see how he set screens for Nash at other times. It was interesting to find out Amare's screens were almost all slip/chip screens like Mobley's. Some of us have complained abit about how Mobley sets weak screens, but it appears that Nash and Stoudemire made an elite living out of those screens.

 

[Lyuokdea]

I'm not a "Stats are everything" person -- but it's beginning to be weird how much worse the team plays defensively with Mobley on the court. He's the worst defensive center in the NBA by more than 4 points (Sengun with -6.8), and is the second worst PF (David Roddy -11.4).

 

[foucault87]

1 as a 2nd option “coincidentally “ when Kyrie and Love were both out and he didn’t even play good that series. 2 as a “3rd option” to 2 nuclear MVP level players and another as a 4th option behind Curry, Poole and Wiggins. He like the other player on the Warriors are the sun of their parts he can’t hold Kyries jock strap talent wise. He is a good player tho, great in the Warrior system during his prime years but not on Kyries level

Rings erneh

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

View attachment 13311
I'm not a "Stats are everything" person -- but it's beginning to be weird how much worse the team plays defensively with Mobley on the court. He's the worst defensive center in the NBA by more than 4 points (Sengun with -6.8), and is the second worst PF (David Roddy -11.4).

It’s definitely getting driven down because of how much he’s played at C, but it might also be getting pushed down simply because he contests so many shots. With the number of shots he contests, he’s naturally going to give up more points than most. Also, found this on their website:

Distance traveled, for perimeter defenders only: As mentioned, current publicly available defensive metrics are more effective at measuring interior/rim defense than perimeter defense. One metric that helps a bit on the perimeter is distance traveled per 100 defensive positions. RAPTOR uses this metric only for defenders that spend a lot of time on the perimeter, based on their ratio of 3-point shots to 2-point shots defended. (It’s not particularly helpful to have a rim protector like Rudy Gobert running all around the backcourt.) This stat can pick up on some additional defensive value for Avery Bradley or Iman Shumpert types who are pesky, active perimeter defenders. It can sometimes also detect players like Harden who take their share of defensive possessions off. This metric is a good candidate to get swapped out for more precise measures of defensive activity in future versions of RAPTOR.

It’s possible stats like Raptor aren’t taking into account his ability to defend perimeter players at all, which along with his ability to contest shots are basically the two biggest strengths he has as a big man defender.

 

[Jordan]

View attachment 13311
I'm not a "Stats are everything" person -- but it's beginning to be weird how much worse the team plays defensively with Mobley on the court. He's the worst defensive center in the NBA by more than 4 points (Sengun with -6.8), and is the second worst PF (David Roddy -11.4).

RAPTOR is not a good stat to use this early in the season, it’s more sensitive to small sample size than a stat like RAPM, which is purely designed for multiple years. RAPTOR is a single season stat that is super prone to error until the very end of the season. I made a Twitter thread about this the other day.

 

[foucault87]

RAPTOR is not a good stat to use this early in the season, it’s more sensitive to small sample size than a stat like RAPM, which is purely designed for multiple years. RAPTOR is a single season stat that is super prone to error until the very end of the season. I made a Twitter thread about this the other day.

What do you think is the best metric to capture defensive impact in a smaller sample size? I always felt it was the rating and EPM type stats that are pace adjusted. Ideally you would be able to adjust for teammates as we but I'm not sure we have a good, publicly available analytical model for that right now

 

[Lyuokdea]

RAPTOR is not a good stat to use this early in the season, it’s more sensitive to small sample size than a stat like RAPM, which is purely designed for multiple years. RAPTOR is a single season stat that is super prone to error until the very end of the season. I made a Twitter thread about this the other day.

So I understand this. Even looking at the stat, there is clearly a ton of variation.

But -- the claims we are making here aren't "We think Mobley is a great defender and the stats say he is just a good defender." or "We think Mobley is a ok defender and the stats say he is a bad defender."

The claims are: "We think Mobley is a great defender and the stats say he is among the worst defenders in the league."

Yes - there is a lot of variation this early in the season. The standard deviation is high. But, as you say, this is all statistical noise. You can still calculate significance from that. Mobley is, by far, the biggest statistical outlier in the dataset between perceived ability and statistical ability.... and it's beginning to be worth wondering if there is something our eyes are missing.

 

[Jordan]

What do you think is the best metric to capture defensive impact in a smaller sample size? I always felt it was the rating and EPM type stats that are pace adjusted. Ideally you would be able to adjust for teammates as we but I'm not sure we have a good, publicly available analytical model for that right now

I like EPM, a lot actually. It’s basically RPM, but instead of only using Bayesian priors (basically information we know to predict what we don’t) based on box score metrics, it also incorporates tracking data. There is also a study in an academic journal that demonstrates it’s short-term and long-term effectiveness at description and prediction.

My favorite is DARKO’s DPM. It basically is EPM, but also includes measures accounting for exponential decay. Basically, rather than strictly being limited by design to long-term analysis like RAPM, DPM’s formula uses a time series model to account for historical priors, but weight it in such a way that it does not add noise to the regular model. In my mind, as far as a single stat goes to explain and predict what’s happening in the NBA, DPM is pretty flawless.

 

[Jordan]

So I understand this. Even looking at the stat, there is clearly a ton of variation.

But -- the claims we are making here aren't "We think Mobley is a great defender and the stats say he is just a good defender." or "We think Mobley is a ok defender and the stats say he is a bad defender."

The claims are: "We think Mobley is a great defender and the stats say he is among the worst defenders in the league."

Yes - there is a lot of variation this early in the season. The standard deviation is high. But, as you say, this is all statistical noise. You can still calculate significance from that. Mobley is, by far, the biggest statistical outlier in the dataset between perceived ability and statistical ability.... and it's beginning to be worth wondering if there is something our eyes are missing.

I mean, sure, but RAPTOR isn’t telling you what you’re claiming it’s telling you. At this level of minutes, the error on RAPTOR is about ten percent.

DPM - a far less noisy stat - has Mobley as an average defender and below average offensive player ().

The Cavs on/off with Mobley is pretty significant (21 points per 100 possessions better with him off court), but a lot (not all) of that has to do with the fact that Love (+8 points per 100 possessions better with Love on court than off) and Cedi (+14 points per 100 possessions better with him on court than off) subbing on when Mobley subs out.

Mobley has not been that great this year, but a stat like RAPTOR that says he’s one of the worst NBA players, with a ten point margin for error this early on, isn’t what I’d look to for evidence.

 

[Lyuokdea]

I mean, sure, but RAPTOR isn’t telling you what you’re claiming it’s telling you. At this level of minutes, the error on RAPTOR is about ten percent.

DPM - a far less noisy stat - has Mobley as an average defender and below average offensive player ().

The Cavs on/off with Mobley is pretty significant (21 points per 100 possessions better with him off court), but a lot (not all) of that has to do with the fact that Love (+8 points per 100 possessions better with Love on court than off) and Cedi (+14 points per 100 possessions better with him on court than off) subbing on when Mobley subs out.

Mobley has not been that great this year, but a stat like RAPTOR that says he’s one of the worst NBA players, with a ten point margin for error this early on, isn’t what I’d look to for evidence.

Are you saying the error on raptor is 10% (which I would buy --- that even sounds a bit too low --- but Mobley rated as a bad defender by much more than 10%) - or 10 points (which it can't be, since there are no other outliers in the entire dataset that are 10 points off)?

 

[cavsfever]

There’s something very weird going on with Mobley’s on-off this year. Just in the raw on off opponents are like 14 points better per 100 possessions and have a ten point higher eFG% with him on court than off. There’s no way this can be his play alone, it’s too big. There must be some selection effect. It’s got to be that he plays a lot more when Allen is out, I don’t see what else it could be. So in a way it’s a testimony to Allen being the linchpin of our defense

But if you look at both seasons of Mobley, and just look at the stats, it’s hard to see all-NBA defensive impact at this point. As many have said here before, there are a lot of assumptions about the future of this team based on Mobley being an all-NBA type player. That’s the source of the expectations, that people, including reportedly the front office, have basically assumed this into their plans

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

The coach needs to use Mobley more as a switch defender which he is best at. But nah, he sticks with his simple man to man defense.. not even utilizing the two best switching bigs in the game because he isn't sophisticated enough to construct a switching scheme that can hide Garland which is hysterical. Mitchell is strong enough to hold his own, so i'm not concerned.

The issue will be rebounding, but that is why you need a strong rebounder at the 3. So it's Wade or my boy Diakite!!!

 

[Jordan]

Are you saying the error on raptor is 10% (which I would buy --- that even sounds a bit too low --- but Mobley rated as a bad defender by much more than 10%) - or 10 points (which it can't be, since there are no other outliers in the entire dataset that are 10 points off)?

Ten percent, sorry.

The error changes over time. RAPTOR, at the end of the season, tends to be outstanding. I just don’t recommend even looking at it until the second half of the seasons, at the earliest, especially with stuff like DPM readily available and containing a lot less variance.