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Farewell, Timofey Mozgov

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I trust Griff on these matters. Good luck to Timo in LA. I'm more concerned with signing JR Smith. He's perfect for this team. 3 and D, willing passer.
 
catfish said:
I am all for analytics but watching the games is important too. Whenever, including garbage time, Mozgov was on floor it seemed like the CAVS were losing groung to the other team.
Click to expand...

Clutch Statistics
(4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left,
neither team ahead by more than 5 points)


Floor Time statistics
MinNet PtsOffDefNet48WLWin%
8%-6 79.2 101.8-22.61233.3%
These stats represent how the team performed in clutch situations while the player was on the floor.
The Net48 number shows the average +/- net points over a full game.
 
Athaloc said:
Interesting...
5-Man Units
Top Five-Man Floor Units
#UnitMinOffDef+/-WLWin%
1 Irving-JR.Smith-James-Love-Mozgov251 1.02 1.11 -46 9 18 33
Click to expand...

Yes and last year that same lineup was very good. Meanwhile Mozgov's counting stats - his ACTUAL STATS - not the "Associative Quality of the Lineup" Are pretty close. So what does that tell you? What's your analysis? That he sucked because that lineup didn't work together? That the lineup's failure is all on Mozzy? If so, I'll bet you'd make a helluva boss. Methinks you have to distribute the blame, but you know spilt milk....
 
Chris Parker said:
Yes and last year that same lineup was very good. Meanwhile Mozgov's counting stats - his ACTUAL STATS - not the "Associative Quality of the Lineup" Are pretty close. So what does that tell you? What's your analysis? That he sucked because that lineup didn't work together? That the lineup's failure is all on Mozzy? If so, I'll bet you'd make a helluva boss. Methinks you have to distribute the blame, but you know spilt milk....
Click to expand...

Per comparision:

Top Five-Man Floor Units
#UnitMinOffDef+/-WLWin%
1 Irving-JR.Smith-James-Love-Thompson465.2 1.19 1.06 +122 22 13 62.8
 
There's no argument Timo was worse last year. But the fact that one lineup did better than another lineup is not ipso-facto, that guy is so many points better than the other. There are coaching decisions, personnel/chemistry changes, etc. Maybe LeBron wanted TT to succeed more than Timo. I have no idea and am not suggesting this merely suggesting there are a lot of "loose" factors when you base a player on the lineup stats and not his stats. Hence my suggestion that basing a players worth on how he does in a lineup compared with how another guy does in the lineup may not reveal a player's true worth, whereas his actual stats is a little more transferable from context to context. At least then you aren't mentally regressing four guys out of the equation. But whatever. Next year people will talk about how much better Timo is now that his knee is completely healed. Nobody will consider that maybe he wasn't as bad in the first place.

FINALLY: Speaking to small sample sizes, it doesn't strike you odd that the same lineup w/o Irving but with MoGotti, noted weak defender is 50 points better? Does that not make you question how much that might fluctuate? What is the "error-range" on +/-? HOw much is it garbage time? Or on a back-to-back. When you're only talking about 100-250 minutes that's a fairly small sample, I'd think.
 
Chris Parker said:
There's no argument Timo was worse last year. But the fact that one lineup did better than another lineup is not ipso-facto, that guy is so many points better than the other.

Who said that? Anyway that stats can guide you and can tell you in same way that Mozgov was worse last year, indeed

There are coaching decisions, personnel/chemistry changes, etc. Maybe LeBron wanted TT to succeed more than Timo. I have no idea and am not suggesting this merely suggesting there are a lot of "loose" factors when you base a player on the lineup stats and not his stats. Hence my suggestion that basing a players worth on how he does in a lineup compared with how another guy does in the lineup may not reveal a player's true worth, whereas his actual stats is a little more transferable from context to context. At least then you aren't mentally regressing four guys out of the equation. But whatever. Next year people will talk about how much better Timo is now that his knee is completely healed. Nobody will consider that maybe he wasn't as bad in the first place.

I substantially agree with you. There were many factors (the knee, personal issues, chemistry, etc, etc) that contributed in Mozgov´s performance with the starting lineup. You can see it in the stats above. Basketball-reference will say the same overall, for instance. You can compare both 2015 and 2016 seasons of Mozgov

FINALLY: Speaking to small sample sizes, it doesn't strike you odd that the same lineup w/o Irving but with MoGotti, noted weak defender is 50 points better? Does that not make you question how much that might fluctuate? What is the "error-range" on +/-? HOw much is it garbage time? Or on a back-to-back. When you're only talking about 100-250 minutes that's a fairly small sample, I'd think.
Click to expand...

I tought in the sample size too, 251 minutes aren´t a lot of minutes. But you can use other stats that can tell you (or guide you intuituvely, if you prefer), the same history: Mozgov was, as you say, worse last year, and a below average center as a whole

http://www.82games.com/1516/15CLE18.HTM

Production by Position
Player Floor Time Stats by Position
PositionMinNet PtsOffDefNet48WLWin%
PG
SG
SF
PF
C 33%+3 98.9 98.8.1324143%


Min represents the percentage of the team's total minutes the player was at that position. W and L are not adjusted in this instance by quality of opponent while at that position in a game.


Player 48-Minute Production by Position
PositionFGAeFG%FTAiFGRebAstT/OBlkPFPtsPER*
PG
SG
SF
PF
C13.0 .567 3.4 58% 12.2 1.2 2.6 2.1 5.8 17.2 15.9
Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

PositionFGAeFG%FTAiFGRebAstT/OBlkPFPtsPER*
PG
SG
SF
PF
C16.7 .516 6.1 50% 12.8 2.5 2.0 1.9 4.3 21.0 19.1
Net 48-Minute Production by Position

PositionFGAeFG%FTAiFGRebAstT/OBlkPFPtsPER*
PG
SG
SF
PF
C-3.7 .051 -2.7 8%-.5 -1.3 -.6 .1 -1.4 -3.8 -3.2


Advanced stats, per 100 possesions, shooting, play by play, per 36 minutes etc (take the toolbox you prefer), in basketball refference.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mozgoti01.html

You can see deeply the performance of Mozgov, +/- per 100 possessions on court vs off court, PER, usage, win shares... etc, etc, etc, etc... some stats will be more accurate that others but all will tell you the same fact

Either (superficially but intuitive again)

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints/position/centers

Either

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/rebounds/sort/avgRebounds/position/centers/count/41

Either

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/blocks/position/centers

etc

More deeply again... (82 games)

On Court / Off Court stats
Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis
StatON CourtOFF CourtNet
Minutes1325264533%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.107.9114.5-6.7
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.107.2105.3+2.0

Either

On Court / Off Court stats
Many stats are shown on a 'per 48 minute' basis
Points Scored27315824-3093
Points Allowed27285335-2607
Net Points+3+489-486

Either

Offensive Rebounding25.4%29.6%-4.2%
Defensive Rebounding74.9%75.8%-0.9%
Total Rebounding50.1%52.7%-2.5%

Well, etc, etc

I agree with you mostly, anyways
 
"Who said that? Anyway that stats can guide you and can tell you in same way that Mozgov was worse last year, indeed"

"I substantially agree with you. There were many factors (the knee, personal issues, chemistry, etc, etc) that contributed in Mozgov´s performance with the starting lineup. You can see it in the stats above. Basketball-reference will say the same overall, for instance. You can compare both 2015 and 2016 seasons of Mozgov"

Sorry, still rookie
 
Windhorst said they removed a cyst from behind Mozgov's knee during that surgery and it never really healed. Mozgov's agent told that to Russia media.
 
Not all that worried about losing Moz per se, as we won't know if last season was an aberration, or the beginning of a downward slide until later next year.

The question is how do maintain match-up flexibility with at least 1 true center, given the cap situation?
 
@SuperSurge - The time has come for us to bid farewell to the quarry of our Safarey.

Goodnight, sweet Timofey.
 
More than anything else, the move away from Mozgov was a schematic decision to switch on defense. The Cavaliers traded for Moz in a scheme to funnel dribble penatration to the center to contest. Under Lue's scheme, both Love and TT could be defending the perimeter or providing help defense. I saw Moz leaving because Blatt's scheme utilized a true center, but Lue's doesn't.
 
Athaloc said:
Although, sometimes...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per-comparison_error_rate
Click to expand...
That wikipedia article has nothing to do with the PER statistic that is measured in basketball, rather it refers to per-comparison error rate, more commonly referred to as PCR. It comes up most frequently in genomics, although I would not be surprised if something similar comes up in target recognition. Here is a better reference on PCR, notes from a graduate-level stats class: http:\\www.gs.washington.edu/academics/courses/akey/56008/lecture/lecture10.pdf
 
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