Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco Traded to the Mets

[DCTribefan]

Wonder how this sets the market for Lindor and the Mets extension talks

Think we all know the answer.

 

[Urban]

$320m is absolutely insane for a guy with 4 more years of team control. So risky

For context, I believe the largest pre-arbitration number is Mike Trout at 6 yrs $144.5m

More recent superstar examples would be Acuna at 8 yrs $100m and Bregman at 6 yrs $100m

 

[CDAV45]

Glad to hear those who you know with leukemia are managing and doing well. I still think it is an ongoing risk with Cookie no matter how advanced the treatments. That’s my point rather than taking issue with your earlier comments. If you think I misrepresented your comments,I apologize.

Thank God it is the form that can be treated effectively. There are way too many that are not as fortunate.

No apology needed. Simple misunderstanding, but I appreciate the gesture and extend the same.

 

[Kevalier]

If FO thought Gimenez was rushed, why bring him in the deal? Sounds like they want him to start AAA (especially in your lineup chart). We will have Arias, Miller, Freeman, Jones and Gimenez in AAA not to rush them .... Take out Gimenez or Rosario and add in OF/C and it would look better (but Mets didnt have OF and Alverez C and Baty 3B were too young).

And, with that line up card, will it get us close to a WC race this year? If not, why spend $10 million this year, when it can be spent when we really have a shot? I like Cesar but seems redundant unless we can trade him at deadline when out of the race and bringing up Freeman/Miller to take over.

This is how I project the middle infield to look like at Columbus and Akron if Cesar is re-signed:

AAA- Gimenez and Miller
AA- Arias and Freeman

Ernie Clement probably becomes your utility infielder in Cleveland with Chang getting either traded or DFA’d.

 

[CDAV45]

This is how I project the middle infield to look like at Columbus and Akron if Cesar is re-signed:

AAA- Gimenez and Miller
AA- Arias and Freeman

Ernie Clement probably becomes your utility infielder in Cleveland with Chang getting either traded or DFA’d.

Hard to believe that Chang gets gone because Clement is there. Clement seems like fodder to me.

 

[petes999]

$320m is absolutely insane for a guy with 4 more years of team control. So risky

For context, I believe the largest pre-arbitration number is Mike Trout at 6 yrs $144.5m

More recent superstar examples would be Acuna at 8 yrs $100m and Bregman at 6 yrs $100m

So you are talking 4-year pre-FA ... and 7-year FA.... Now, if Lindor is $30 mill FA for 10 yr, you can say Tatis can get $35 mill for 7 in 4 years w mlb inflation and shorter term. That’s $245 out of $320 mill. That leaves $75 mill for 4 years pre-FA - $16 mill ave. A bit rich but not outlandish but no hometown discounts for securing your family for life.

What will Bieber get if we try to sign him now? Probably already too late. Ramirez trade by 2022 season (w 2 years left) and Bieber by 2023?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I noticed this comment from Antonetti...

But it does seem like if you look at the history of those deals and what the expected return for players with one year left was ten years ago versus today, that return might look appreciably different.

It sounds like he's saying teams just aren't willing to ante up the quality and number of prospects they used to and he got the best return that he could.

With respect to holding off on trading Carrasco, his 10-and-5 kicks in in 25 days. After that he could have handed the Indians a list of teams he won't play for and the Indians' potential trade partners could have been dramatically whittled down to the point where they almost have to give him away. Heck, he could have simply said he's not going anywhere.

 

[petes999]

Hard to believe that Chang gets gone because Clement is there. Clement seems like fodder to me.

Yeah .... no room for Clement after 2022 on 40 and Chang is cut after this year unless he shines too. Clement only got a 40 spot due to the transition to youth and uncertainty. Would have seen a glimpse if we didn’t get Rosario and Gimenez for Lindor. And that spot cost us Oviedo (I had him over Clement).

As for where people start, I think some are discounting LC time. You had 30 guys out there getting time. The pitchers had to get their work and mid-5 day ballpen work in. There were slightly more starters than relievers with guys like Allen, Moss, Mejia, Hentges, Espino, Hankins and McK pre callup, all needing simulated innings to be stretched out as much as possible for year. Hitters like Miller, Aries, Jones and Freeman would have gotten their work in plus like a abbreviated season w 2 ST against AAA talent. Instead of grind of traveling, Jones got extra work in at 3B and OF. Miller got full AA in 2019 so won’t surprise me if he is MLB in April.

 

[Steve_424]

$320m is absolutely insane for a guy with 4 more years of team control. So risky

For context, I believe the largest pre-arbitration number is Mike Trout at 6 yrs $144.5m

More recent superstar examples would be Acuna at 8 yrs $100m and Bregman at 6 yrs $100m

I will say, at least they're paying for age 23-34 Tatis Jr. If the Mets (or someone else) gives that to Lindor, you're paying for his 27-37 seasons.

Is it worth it to pay more in his controllable years to basically give you his entire prime and get out from the contract before he starts his decline? I think it's interesting to see.

 

[Tondo]

You like the trade because you think there might be something in these prospects that nobody else sees or cares about. It's your thing and I appreciate it, but what was added created more depth. It didn't move the needle one way or the other for the value of the farm system.

Gimenez is not an "exciting get". He just isn't. He's a good glove, slap hitting MIFer that was rapidly declining down the prospect charts because he was overrated to begin with. For a team desperate to find some offense, Gimenez isn't the type of hitter you would like to see returned for Lindor and Carrasco. What he might be is a good leadoff man which was a need. We'll see if he can fill those shoes because otherwise he's of very little value.

Rosario would have been a good stopgap until one of our own is ready. However, he appears to be our starting 2B now and I would prefer to see Miller or Chang given the opportunity TBH.

Wolf and Greene are basically the "exciting gets" in this deal and they are a long way off and can't crack our top 10. One of Gimenez or Rosario along with Wolf and Greene would have been an acceptable return for Lindor considering the circumstances, but Carrasco being include changes the entire landscape of this trade.

Like I said before, it's ok to call the trade what it really was and that is a salary dump. There's no harm in it.

My primary concern isn't the farm system. It was evident we'd trade Lindor, so we had no MIF. With the trade we now have a playable MIF with upside that clearly exceeds the internal "alternatives". Chang hasn't even performed in the minors, Clement needs at least another year, Freeman and Arias another 2 years, as neither even reached AA yet.

Of course Gimenez is an exciting get. That slap hitter outperformed All World Lindor at the plate last year at age 21. Some recent college draft picks are older than Gimenez. In terms of value, he's been on par with McKenzie for us, without the injury concerns. Both were high ranked prospects that took a perceived value hit, but the talent (obviously in both cases) never disappeared and flashed last season.
Rosario was a 65 FV for FG, who are notoriously conservative with FV grades. That's elite Acuna/Soto territory. And he's performed well outside of a stadium he won't have to play again.

Nice try to slant this into a subjective opinion. This was recent scouts consensus, not some wish casting "nobody else sees or cares about"

 

[Tondo]

Mejia last pitched 33 innings in A ball in 2019. I wouldn't count on much, if anything, from him at the major league level in 2021. Maybe later in the season if he does well at AA, but how many innings will he be able to throw this year?

Pitchers can ascend to ML value much quicker than hitters, see McKenzie.
Mejia similarly had health issues cutting down his progression, but the stuff/pitchability mix is the strongest among pitching prospects on our 40 roster not expected to be on the 25 roster. There's a reason he's been kept on the 40 for two years, he's good. He and Eli Morgan got ML hitters out with ease during 2020 ST.

 

[Tondo]

This has nothing to do with trusting the FO. You act as if this is occurred because they wanted it to. They did what they had to do.

Carlos' "serious health issue" is under control for now and he pitched like he typically does. He's the model of consistency. He's worth much more than the measly $12M he's making this year and next. Unfortunately that $12M is more than the Indians' owner can swing at this time.

Damn CDAV, you're a fade machine.

Carrasco had pretty evident stamina issues last year and was pulled early multiple times. He's pitched just under 150 innings since 2019 and produced 2.5 fWAR the past two seasons. I'm pretty confident we can cover that with our internal options.
I hate including him in the trade for sentimental reasons, but at his age and health history, he was a prime candidate to be dealt.

 

[petes999]

Rosario was a 65 FV for FG, who are notoriously conservative with FV grades. That's elite Acuna/Soto territory. And he's performed well outside of a stadium he won't have to play again.

Nice try to slant this into a subjective opinion. This was recent scouts consensus, not some wish casting "nobody else sees or cares about"

Thanks Tondo ... I have been pissing on this trade more so for over-abundance of middle infielders we now have. I didn’t see before till you mentioned it that Rosario is .307 hitter away and .224 at home. He also hits 40 pts better in 2nd half. Yet, for non-power hitter 12 hr run guy a year, I assume it’s more nerves at home than road. Yet, even in front of no one, he was still consistent last year at home. And, he hit .366 in Sept/Oct, so he may succeed in a less pressured environment.

I also saw Met fan say he has cannon of arm but sucks at SS. Wonder if this is another 3B option when Jose is traded - in case Jones is not ready. If they are high on Rosario, and can do 2nd with Jose at 3rd for 2021, why is Cesar on our radar? Just speculating.

 

[Tondo]

Rosario is an OF option too. We've experimented with Naylor, Bauers and Santana out there and even Kipnis in the postseason. Rosario has much better tools than those and is worth a try, maybe even in CF. It's a risk, but I'm sure they'll at least try him there.

 

[Pjlea28]

Joc Pederson makes a ton of sense as a platoon partner with Luplow. If both hit at career norms they'd produce all-star-caliber production together.

I love this move. It would be a solid platoon. As far as the abundance of MIF's.....we could always look to move one for a veteran OF. Both SS's we rec'd in the trade are young and may interest teams that will not be in the market for the more expensive SS's this year & next year....Like the A's maybe if the Rockies move Story or the Cubs move Baez.