Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco Traded to the Mets

[avs2000]

C’mon. You think they dealt him because he was diagnosed with and treated for leukemia and he is some kind of risk? It was about the money.......period.

Yes. And he is older. Wasn’t going deep in games anymoreAnd we have depth in starting pitching. It’s never “ one thing “

 

[petes999]

I don’t know where people are confident in saying Carlos was losing stamina. I get it from aging and fear of leukemia yet it wasn’t a noticeable drop in 2020, if at all. I get the fear of a true long season on wear and tear. Kind of like Pluto’s quote of other execs fearing the aging pitchers that Indians have traded in Kluber and Clevinger - they know something other do not.

Yet, looking at his 4-seam FB, it had dropped from high of 96 early in his career down to 93.8 last year. But it had been that in 2018 and 2019.

As for his starts, he had a bad 3-game stint in mid-Aug and in playoff game. But, other than that he was consistent 6/7 innings at 84-109 pitches ending with an average 97 pitches in his 5 Sept starts. This is not being pulled early due to stamina

 

[daddywags]

To me the concerns about Carrasco start with his walk rate. For some reason his BB/9 jumped to 3.6 in 2020. He had consistently been a 2.0 BB/9 pitcher previously in his career. His K rate stayed up (highest in his career by a smidge), but even watching games it seemed to me his control wasn't sharp. So now, at age 34 and two years removed from his diagnosis, will he return fully to prior form or will he continue to struggle with walks? I would bet on the former but not with my own money.

BTW - He's still a very effective starting pitcher either way, maybe the difference between a solid #2 starter and a #3 guy. But the other issue is that he's only thrown 200 innings once in his career (exactly 200 in 2017) so you can probably count on him for 170-190 innings going forward.

 

[CDAV45]

I don’t know where people are confident in saying Carlos was losing stamina. I get it from aging and fear of leukemia yet it wasn’t a noticeable drop in 2020, if at all. I get the fear of a true long season on wear and tear. Kind of like Pluto’s quote of other execs fearing the aging pitchers that Indians have traded in Kluber and Clevinger - they know something other do not.

Yet, looking at his 4-seam FB, it had dropped from high of 96 early in his career down to 93.8 last year. But it had been that in 2018 and 2019.

As for his starts, he had a bad 3-game stint in mid-Aug and in playoff game. But, other than that he was consistent 6/7 innings at 84-109 pitches ending with an average 97 pitches in his 5 Sept starts. This is not being pulled early due to stamina

Thanks Pete. You saved me a lot of typing.

I understand that Lindor’s value was crushed by his 1 yr remaining and COVID.

The same is not true for Carrasco. He will be their #2 with 2 yrs of cheap control and an option for a 3rd if he’s still performing well and the money is worth it. We got very little to nothing for him. If he can be replaced in house is of little relevance.

 

[DCTribefan]

Thanks Pete. You saved me a lot of typing.

I understand that Lindor’s value was crushed by his 1 yr remaining and COVID.

The same is not true for Carrasco. He will be their #2 with 2 yrs of cheap control and an option for a 3rd if he’s still performing well and the money is worth it. We got very little to nothing for him. If he can be replaced in house is of little relevance.

Saving $24M in payroll cannot be minimized with revenues crushed by Covid-19 and no near term recovery in sight.

 

[CDAV45]

Saving $24M in payroll cannot be minimized with revenues crushed by Covid-19 and no near term recovery in sight.

Didn’t minimize it at all. In fact I said that’s all trading Carrasco was.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Trading Carrasco was the right move. He has been frequently on the DL and has a lot of mileage on his arm. The salary is great if you got 32 starts out of him but are more likely to get 20-25 at most. They are not going to contend the next few years because the offense is bad. Save the money and hope you can spend it in 2024 and beyond. I know people want to keep Jose Ramirez but I expect him to be gone by mid-season in a trade to a contender. If this team wants to play in the future with a $50 million range payroll, they need to move Jose Ramirez for bats that become the foundation of that future team.

 

[CBBI]

To me the concerns about Carrasco start with his walk rate. For some reason his BB/9 jumped to 3.6 in 2020. He had consistently been a 2.0 BB/9 pitcher previously in his career. His K rate stayed up (highest in his career by a smidge), but even watching games it seemed to me his control wasn't sharp. So now, at age 34 and two years removed from his diagnosis, will he return fully to prior form or will he continue to struggle with walks? I would bet on the former but not with my own money.

BTW - He's still a very effective starting pitcher either way, maybe the difference between a solid #2 starter and a #3 guy. But the other issue is that he's only thrown 200 innings once in his career (exactly 200 in 2017) so you can probably count on him for 170-190 innings going forward.

Carrasco threw fewer fastballs and more offspeed pitches than any point in his career.

Stands to reason that throwing more pitches which are by design are going to end up out of the strike zone will lead to more walks (and also more K's), yes?

 

[avs2000]

Thanks Pete. You saved me a lot of typing.

I understand that Lindor’s value was crushed by his 1 yr remaining and COVID.

The same is not true for Carrasco. He will be their #2 with 2 yrs of cheap control and an option for a 3rd if he’s still performing well and the money is worth it. We got very little to nothing for him. If he can be replaced in house is of little relevance.

2020 was a sixty game season

 

[daddywags]

Carrasco threw fewer fastballs and more offspeed pitches than any point in his career.

Stands to reason that throwing more pitches which are by design are going to end up out of the strike zone will lead to more walks (and also more K's), yes?

In 2018 his K/9 rate was 10.8, his BB/9 rate was 2.0.

In 2019 it was 10.8 and 1.8.

In 2021 it was 10.9 and 3.6.

Make of it what you will, I see an outlier.

 

[CBBI]

In 2018 his K/9 rate was 10.8, his BB/9 rate was 2.0.

In 2019 it was 10.8 and 1.8.

In 2021 it was 10.9 and 3.6.

Make of it what you will, I see an outlier.

I don't think it is an outlier at all. But to be clear, I also don't think it's a negative thing either. It feels more like a natural evolution of a pitcher and his strategy of how to attack hitters.

Carrasco's fastball percentage, a pitch he typically tries to throw for strikes, was down to just 39% of his pitches in 2020, the lowest mark of his career by quite a bit.

Carrasco's change up percentage, a pitch that almost always ends up out of the strike zone, was way up to 27% of the time.

We'll see if it continues, but it appears to me that Carrasco made the conscious decision to throw more offspeed and breaking pitches out of the strike zone which lead to an increase in both K's and walks.

 

[Metsfan123]

Hey guys, Mets fan here. Just wanted to chime in on this deal.

First off, I totally feel for you guys with the ownership situation. Mets fans have been in jail for over a decade now ever since our previous owners got mixed up a Ponzi scheme. We similarly lost our beloved franchise SS Jose Reyes to the Marlins of all teams. We didn't even attempt to re-sign him.

On to the trade...I'd be lying if I said the deal stung from a Mets fans perspective. It didn't. I'm fairly surprised the Mets got the deal they got, especially once I found out Carrasco was also in the deal. I thought we'd at the very least have to give up one of our top 3-4 prospects in addition to Gimenez.

I think Andres Gimenez is a really nice get for you guys. Mets fans absolutely loved this guy when he made his debut last year. Extremely smart player. Great instincts. I usually don't use those terms because they sound very old school and usually describe a player who sucks, but not in this case.

I think he can match Lindor's defensive and base running in 2021. He's that impressive when it comes to those 2 aspects. offensive potential is the biggest question with him. His statcast metrics blew in 2020, I'm aware. I think it was more about him being a young hitter and expanding the zone and making weak contact on pitches he couldn't do much with, which weighed those down. He has some surprising pop in his bat. 2 of his home runs were to the opposite field and one was a rocket pull shot at 109 MPH off the bat. I don't think he's ever gonna light statcast up or hit 20 homers, but he's not a slap hitter either. I think he's a safe bet to be worth 2.5-3 WAR this upcoming season, mostly on the weight of his defense and base running.

Amed is a former consensus top 5 prospect(Keith Law had him #1 at one point). Great raw talent. Great Speed. Good athlete. Excellent power to right center. He can't hit righties for shit. No plate discipline. Can't lay off breaking balls. He does pretty well vs lefties, even last year when he was dreadful offensively. His defense has been a huge disappointment thus far.

I think if you platooned Gimenez/Rosario at SS you'd actually have a nice platoon, although Amed's defense at SS has been a disaster. I'm not sure what your plan for him is.

Good luck guys. I hope you guys get some good value out of this deal. Gimenez will be a keeper, no doubt.

 

[Steve_424]

Trading Carrasco was the right move. He has been frequently on the DL and has a lot of mileage on his arm. The salary is great if you got 32 starts out of him but are more likely to get 20-25 at most. They are not going to contend the next few years because the offense is bad. Save the money and hope you can spend it in 2024 and beyond. I know people want to keep Jose Ramirez but I expect him to be gone by mid-season in a trade to a contender. If this team wants to play in the future with a $50 million range payroll, they need to move Jose Ramirez for bats that become the foundation of that future team.

Cookie's starts per year since they committed to him in the rotation:

2015-30
2016-25
2017-32
2018-30
2019-12
2020-12*

He didn't miss a start in the COVID-shortened 2020 so really 2019 was the only year he missed a lot of time. 2016 ended in mid-September on an unlucky comebacker.

Maybe it was the correct move, but I don't know if "frequently on the IL" is fair or not.

 

[CDAV45]

Hey guys, Mets fan here. Just wanted to chime in on this deal.

First off, I totally feel for you guys with the ownership situation. Mets fans have been in jail for over a decade now ever since our previous owners got mixed up a Ponzi scheme. We similarly lost our beloved franchise SS Jose Reyes to the Marlins of all teams. We didn't even attempt to re-sign him.

On to the trade...I'd be lying if I said the deal stung from a Mets fans perspective. It didn't. I'm fairly surprised the Mets got the deal they got, especially once I found out Carrasco was also in the deal. I thought we'd at the very least have to give up one of our top 3-4 prospects in addition to Gimenez.

I think Andres Gimenez is a really nice get for you guys. Mets fans absolutely loved this guy when he made his debut last year. Extremely smart player. Great instincts. I usually don't use those terms because they sound very old school and usually describe a player who sucks, but not in this case.

I think he can match Lindor's defensive and base running in 2021. He's that impressive when it comes to those 2 aspects. offensive potential is the biggest question with him. His statcast metrics blew in 2020, I'm aware. I think it was more about him being a young hitter and expanding the zone and making weak contact on pitches he couldn't do much with, which weighed those down. He has some surprising pop in his bat. 2 of his home runs were to the opposite field and one was a rocket pull shot at 109 MPH off the bat. I don't think he's ever gonna light statcast up or hit 20 homers, but he's not a slap hitter either. I think he's a safe bet to be worth 2.5-3 WAR this upcoming season, mostly on the weight of his defense and base running.

Amed is a former consensus top 5 prospect(Keith Law had him #1 at one point). Great raw talent. Great Speed. Good athlete. Excellent power to right center. He can't hit righties for shit. No plate discipline. Can't lay off breaking balls. He does pretty well vs lefties, even last year when he was dreadful offensively. His defense has been a huge disappointment thus far.

I think if you platooned Gimenez/Rosario at SS you'd actually have a nice platoon, although Amed's defense at SS has been a disaster. I'm not sure what your plan for him is.

Good luck guys. I hope you guys get some good value out of this deal. Gimenez will be a keeper, no doubt.

Thanks for chiming in, we appreciate the input. It's seems as if Gimenez will take over SS and Rosario will move over to 2B, but that is yet to be seen. As a Cleveland fan, I think this deal sucks and that sentiment has nothing to do with Lindor. The lack of control, the cost, and the pandemic has changed the landscape for soon to be FA. What's difficult for me is the lack of return for Carrasco. Damn fine SP that's relatively inexpensive. He'll be your #2 until Thor returns. We're supposed to be retooling, but this is screaming rebuild to me.

I'm no Gimenez fan for Cleveland. If we had a loaded lineup then he might be a decent leadoff hitter.......maybe. I guess I just don't understand what direction this team is headed in. They talk about staying competitive, but this trade not only creates a huge offensive gap, but it also cuts into the SP depth. We have plenty of arms to replace Carrasco, but can any of them pitch as effectively or as reliably?

Good luck with your new acquisitions. We loved them while they were here.

 

[macbdog]

Giminez reminds me of a certain 3b/2b/ss we antsy have here. Excellent baseball instincts, weak bat, plus defender. We just got to have him start 'training' with Edwin Encarnacion in the off-season, change his launch angle and add some power.