Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco Traded to the Mets

[Gson]

I love this move. It would be a solid platoon. As far as the abundance of MIF's.....we could always look to move one for a veteran OF. Both SS's we rec'd in the trade are young and may interest teams that will not be in the market for the more expensive SS's this year & next year....Like the A's maybe if the Rockies move Story or the Cubs move Baez.

Cincinnati Reds.. are looking for a SS and have already moved Freddy Galvis.. they have a big ole hole at the 6... and an abundance of OF'ers.. A deal with Cinci for an OF'er not named Winker could be a reasonable solution...

 

[jup]

So you are talking 4-year pre-FA ... and 7-year FA.... Now, if Lindor is $30 mill FA for 10 yr, you can say Tatis can get $35 mill for 7 in 4 years w mlb inflation and shorter term. That’s $245 out of $320 mill. That leaves $75 mill for 4 years pre-FA - $16 mill ave. A bit rich but not outlandish but no hometown discounts for securing your family for life.

What will Bieber get if we try to sign him now? Probably already too late. Ramirez trade by 2022 season (w 2 years left) and Bieber by 2023?

Why would Biebs sign an extension - really makes little sense - especially an under market one now while the Indians will be crying COVID to keep the price down.

He has one more season till arbitration, where he should see a BIG 1st time number. If he is decent this year, he is looking at probably $5, if great maybe $8. Could easily push the record for 1st ($8 ish) 2nd ($11ish) and 3rd (like $17ish) time arb eligible. Then he is a free agent. Conservatively $30 million career earnings before free agency.

If he signs an extension he is an idiot, and that he is not

 

[Urban]

Why would Biebs sign an extension - really makes little sense - especially an under market one now while the Indians will be crying COVID to keep the price down.

He has one more season till arbitration, where he should see a BIG 1st time number. If he is decent this year, he is looking at probably $5, if great maybe $8. Could easily push the record for 1st ($8 ish) 2nd ($11ish) and 3rd (like $17ish) time arb eligible. Then he is a free agent. Conservatively $30 million career earnings before free agency.

If he signs an extension he is an idiot, and that he is not

Didn’t work out so well for his buddy Clevinger

 

[jup]

Didn’t work out so well for his buddy Clevinger

Not sure it worked out so bad for Clev actually - $15+ for his arb years when you look at what the Padres are paying him to rehab. Still hits free agency at the exact same time. Has a good year in '22 and he hits in the mid 20's AAV for 3 to 5. Not sure Cleveland is handing out that kind of money when you look at them dumping Carrasco's $12 million number.

But that aside, given that Bieb's arm history is much more like Bauer's than Clev's, and it has worked out right fine for his "other buddy". He could simple beat Cleveland in arb multiple times like Bauer, and earn about $35 to $40 during his arb walk just like Bauer who didn't even have Bieb's track record. Bieb's would be dumb to sell out his arb and a free agent year or two. And that is the only way Cleveland does extensions. You have to give away at least one year past arb if not option several more. WHY would he do that ?

Guess you can hope he doesn't consult with his "other buddy" and maybe he will be in Cleveland past his arb years. Cause if not, his clock is ticking, and it looks like he turns to a pumpkin in the '23-'24 off season when he gets to expensive for Cleveland's blood.

 

[Steve_424]

Didn’t work out so well for his buddy Clevinger

Clev was 2 years older than Bieber when he debuted. Clev will be 32 ahen he hits FA, Bieber 30. I know that's not a huge difference but it is when looking at free agent valuation.

 

[Steve_424]

Not sure it worked out so bad for Clev actually - $15+ for his arb years when you look at what the Padres are paying him to rehab. Still hits free agency at the exact same time. Has a good year in '22 and he hits in the mid 20's AAV for 3 to 5. Not sure Cleveland is handing out that kind of money when you look at them dumping Carrasco's $12 million number.

But that aside, given that Bieb's arm history is much more like Bauer's than Clev's, and it has worked out right fine for his "other buddy". He could simple beat Cleveland in arb multiple times like Bauer, and earn about $35 to $40 during his arb walk just like Bauer who didn't even have Bieb's track record. Bieb's would be dumb to sell out his arb and a free agent year or two. And that is the only way Cleveland does extensions. You have to give away at least one year past arb if not option several more. WHY would he do that ?

Guess you can hope he doesn't consult with his "other buddy" and maybe he will be in Cleveland past his arb years. Cause if not, his clock is ticking, and it looks like he turns to a pumpkin in the '23-'24 off season when he gets to expensive for Cleveland's blood.

The only logical reason would be if wants that security sooner, especially with pitchers being more volatile. But players seem to be betting on themselves more and more.

 

[Urban]

Clev was 2 years older than Bieber when he debuted. Clev will be 32 ahen he hits FA, Bieber 30. I know that's not a huge difference but it is when looking at free agent valuation.

That’s not really the point

 

[Urban]

WHY would he do that ?

Because he would easily get hurt in his ARB1 year and need TJ, miss all of ARB2, and now suddenly his career earnings are depending on coming back and performing in ARB3

Hell, Blake Snell took 5 yes $50m a few months after winning the Cy Young a few years ago

Why does any player agree to “below market” pre-arb extensions? Not too difficult to figure out

 

[jup]

Because he would easily get hurt in his ARB1 year and need TJ, miss all of ARB2, and now suddenly his career earnings are depending on coming back and performing in ARB3

Why does any player agree to “below market” pre-arb extensions? Not too difficult to figure out

These guys have had to bet on themselves for a very long time. No one handed them a major league career. Bieb's has no history of arm problems, comes from a family of plenty of means that is located in Santa Barbara CA, already is earning over a half million a year, and is one year from seeing a multiple millions raise. Even if he was to have TJ this year, he would still get paid multiple millions come arb which will happen just like the sun rising and setting. What the Indians are going to Non Tender him ???? Another team would offer him millions to come rehab with them in a heart beat. So he is going to sell off years of arb and free agency??? Stop betting on himself when it has brought him to the goal line because he might fumble ??

Bieb's is not a guy from the islands that has an impoverished family he wants to take care of, or is aging, or without a track record to stand on with plenty of years before anticipated decline, or with a history of health isuues. You are applying the same standard to everyone. One size does not fit all. It is far more nuanced then you are making it. But that is "not to difficult to figure out" is it @Urban.

The operable phrase here is probably what Dolan said about Lindor - enjoy him while you can. But if you want to live in extension fantasy land, go right ahead. To each his own.

 

[Urban]

These guys have had to bet on themselves for a very long time. No one handed them a major league career. Bieb's has no history of arm problems, comes from a family of plenty of means that is located in Santa Barbara CA, already is earning over a half million a year, and is one year from seeing a multiple millions raise. Even if he was to have TJ this year, he would still get paid multiple millions come arb which will happen just like the sun rising and setting. What the Indians are going to Non Tender him ???? Another team would offer him millions to come rehab with them in a heart beat. So he is going to sell off years of arb and free agency??? Stop betting on himself when it has brought him to the goal line because he might fumble ??

Bieb's is not a guy from the islands that has an impoverished family he wants to take care of, or is aging, or without a track record to stand on with plenty of years before anticipated decline, or with a history of health isuues. You are applying the same standard to everyone. One size does not fit all. It is far more nuanced then you are making it. But that is "not to difficult to figure out" is it @Urban.

The operable phrase here is probably what Dolan said about Lindor - enjoy him while you can. But if you want to live in extension fantasy land, go right ahead. To each his own.

Nah, it really isn't that difficult to figure out why players take pre-arb extensions. Because the game/life is uncertain and they're being offered life changing money Quit taking everything so personal, you are an exhausting drama queen. We've seen plenty of "non-island guys with impoverished families" take pre-arb extensions.

Had Clevinger stayed healthy and continued to produce at 2019-like numbers, he was probably on his way to make let's say $25-30m in his arbitration years. But that didn't happen. Instead, he's making $13m because of the 2020 COVID cuts and because he got hurt and is going to miss 2021. Now 2022 is make or break really. Is he were offered anything in the neighborhood that Snell was offered and turned it down, he's surely kicking himself.

 

[Urban]

I will say, at least they're paying for age 23-34 Tatis Jr. If the Mets (or someone else) gives that to Lindor, you're paying for his 27-37 seasons.

Is it worth it to pay more in his controllable years to basically give you his entire prime and get out from the contract before he starts his decline? I think it's interesting to see.

This is true, I'd rather give that kind of money to Tatis than Lindor as we know Lindor- like most others- will be a $40m dead weight by the end of that contract.

Tatis Jr still has 1 year of team control and 3 years of arbitration. Lindor made about $50m in those 4 seasons. In a world where Tatis Jr doesn't take the extension, let's say Tatis Jr too stays healthy and continues to exceed expectations and ends up making $60m in those 4 years. We can then look at the extension as 7 years $260m

But you are right, this does give you the benefit of not having to offer him a deal that's paying him $40m+ in his late 30s.

 

[petes999]

Cincinnati Reds.. are looking for a SS and have already moved Freddy Galvis.. they have a big ole hole at the 6... and an abundance of OF'ers.. A deal with Cinci for an OF'er not named Winker could be a reasonable solution...

Just after I read your post, I saw this from mlb .... the question is do the reds want to compete this year or not after Bauer or do they struggle through their own prospect Garcia (or pick up a 1-year option on a remaining SS till Garcia is ready).

Reds have options in search for shortstop

CINCINNATI -- A large majority of the free-agent class remains available, and that includes the cream of the crop among shortstops. The Reds still have a need at that position, but do they have the means to fill it? Last month, Reds general manager Nick Krall shaved roughly $15 million

www.mlb.com

Chris will earn his keep on making calls and finding the right need/want combination that matches us. It is probably not as easy as it sounds. FA are usually the easier option (especially for teams that can spend a bit and have an internal option close to ready - where you can get that 1-2 year cheaper option especially this year with COVID).

I just don't think there is an option at OF right now in free agency that fills the hole at the price we are willing to pay (maybe $7 mill -- I assume $5 mill or less). Chris may just be waiting on the official DH ruling for NL and seeing if a team like the Marlins will make Aguilar/Cooper available for something. If we can keep Naylor in LF (off 1B) and have some combo of Reyes/Acquisition/Bradley at DH and 1B, I wouldn't mind an OF of Naylor, Johnson, Mercado, Luplow with Rosario/Jones/Miller manning the OF during BP to see if one of them is another option as well. Yet, Jones probably has the most experience in this group (with Fall work) as neither Rosario or Miller played it in the minors (at least Kipnis played CF in college).

Edit - Sorry, Rosario did play LF for 3 innings in 2019.

 

[GreatGoo]

With Lindor gone, and the team obviously taking a step back talent wise. Who do you guys think generates the most excitement in 2021? Jose having another MVP type year? Beiber with another CY performance? Or one of our prospects making a statement?

 

[Gson]

With Lindor gone, and the team obviously taking a step back talent wise. Who do you guys think generates the most excitement in 2021? Jose having another MVP type year? Beiber with another CY performance? Or one of our prospects making a statement?

With the choices in and around Jose Ramirez pretty much reduced to replacement level players, young veterans who will surprise, and rookies who don't know which end of the bat to hold onto.. look for Jose to be "avoided" by most, if not all, major league clubs.. If Jose can remain patient (not a strong suit of his), he may induce more walks than even the great LOS !!.. It's what's coming..

 

[petes999]

With Lindor gone, and the team obviously taking a step back talent wise. Who do you guys think generates the most excitement in 2021? Jose having another MVP type year? Beiber with another CY performance? Or one of our prospects making a statement?

Bieber with a 14-10 Cy Young performance. At least with Bieber, we will be watching to see if our offense can score 2-3 runs for a win. With Ramirez, what is the upside of 30+ solo home runs?