Future Roster - Trade Needs

[sportscoach]

Sorry, I am going to get shot for this .... Yet, I still see the Frazier and Andujar rumors on Twitter and get sick (not enough). But, then after our discussions for Santana last night and Chris still coming out again and saying finances are a mess with COVID thus may affects the trade market, something clicked. I wouldn't approve but if the first domino falls, then the writing is on the wall...

I just don't buy Cleveland is not going to do a substantial payroll dump again. I think the Dolans are cash strapped as they look at this as a money maker investment and Chris said they are losing a lot.

If Clevinger goes to NY for Frazier, Andujar, maybe 2 of Schmidt or Garcia or Dominquez (okay probably too much) but we need something else substantial (maybe sub in Gill or Vizcaino for one) ...

If the Indians have Andujar included to play first and ship Santana off to Dodgers (to push Muncy to 2nd) and then we can get maybe a Ruiz (if we add something) or Cartaya (but only in Rookie ball) for our catcher needs. I wouldn't expect much for Santana for a full year at $17.5 million but when payroll is 1/3 for this season and 1/2 way through ... it is more like $3-$4 million for a playoff run that is a good asset.

Then the question is Lindor but it still is trade him now or offseason. Yet, that is cutting $18 mill for Santana and $6-8 million for Clevinger (from $4 million this season). What is Chris's budget?

Like I said .. I much prefer looking for a cheaper 1st base option next year (to push Santana into renegotiating a $10-12 million contract). Trade Clevinger to Atlanta for Pache/Waters and a top near ready pitcher (Wilson or Mueller) and maybe a catcher prospect (Contreras or Langeliers). This and other trade solve same issues (rather have Waters vs Fraiser as Waters can play CF) ... one is just the cheaper option.

I love to have Santana back but at $17 million ... if I was GM of LA or NY .. okay but not a small market club if owners are looking to make up for losses.

I am going to project high since you always do a projected budget that way.

I get our owner is going to be cash strapped, but i feel like he just isn't going to increase the budget next season is all. Guys like Hernandez (what 6 mil) and Domingo (5 mil option). Then we only really have significant increases to Clev and Lindor, everyone else isn't going to get a huge increase.

This is what I see for 21. Hernandez, O. Perez, Leon, Domingo (due 5 mil next season, likely not doing his option year), will all be off the books (total of almost 13 mil from original 20 projections)

Roberto gets a 2 mil raise, Hand a 3 mil, Carrasco is due a 2 mil raise, Naquin and Wittgren 1-2 mil raise, Jose is due a 3 mil raise, DeShields a 1-2 mil raise, Clev is due about 6-7 mil raise, Lindor 7-8 mil, Cimber and Maton are due about a mil raise.

Santana will make 3 mil less next season, so we are looking at around 110 mil mark if not less with the projected current roster keeping Santana.

We have to make likely a cut from the roster to get the prices down. So I am thinking we dont keep DeShields, Cimber, then we trade Clev for prospects/rookie contract guys. Putting the roster at about 95 mil. Trade Lindor (who I have projected at 25 mil) cuts the payroll down to 75 area.

Not resigning Santana, would put us around 95, then trading the other guys would put us down to around 80 mil.

By lower money projections 75-85 mil, we can only keep at max two of the list of Hand, Clev, Lindor and Santana. At 95 mil we can keep 3 of them. Also at 95, we have the best chance of winning the division, go to 80ish we become a wild card at best on paper. The FO and Owner i know are looking at a more complicated version of what I stated.

Going into next season, trading Clev (projected at 10-11 mil) not keeping DeShields, Cimber etc is the best plan in my mind. Clev is replaceable and should merit 1 borderline big leaguer plus 2 more prospects.

 

[petes999]

SportsCoach...

Sorry I lost you in some numbers … trying to summarize a different way (sorry if off a bit as I am running to get my son soon)

Current Year - $95 million

Planned Raises - $10 (Perez, Hand, Ramirez Cookie)

Santana (3) (He gets $17.5 each year but this year due $3 mill prorated signing bonus?)

Arbitration Inc 20 (most for Lindor and Clevinger – about $14 million)

Cuts (13) (Domingo $1, Cimber $1, DeShields $2 Hernandez $6, O Perez and Leon $1.5 each)

Trade Clev (10) (this assumes $4 this year plus $6 in arbitration)

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Puts us at $99 mill (with Hand $10, Santana $17.5 , Lindor at $25) – as I said, we can cut to $95 by renegotiating Santana down a few million)

So yes … around $95 … we can keep 3 of Hand, Clev, Lindor and Santana … but lose Hernandez (and still need backup catcher for Leon ...assume you meant Leone) … If it goes down to $80 million … we lose Santana or Hand

 

[CDAV45]

That's a lot of moving parts and variables, Pete. Let me try to paint in broad strokes.

I tend to agree that a lot will be done to cut salaries. Lindor will be traded for sure. I think that with the emergence of Karinchak and Maton as well as Clase's return the Indians will not exercise Hand's $10 million option. I also doubt they will pick up Santana's $17.5 million option and will try to negotiate a contract for a lesser amount.

Those three moves will free up a ton of money and bring in some exciting young talent in the Lindor deal. Clevinger will be up for arbitration. He made $4 million (for 162 games) this year and I don't know if he will get a big raise next year. He's proven to be an injury risk. I could see Clevinger on the Indians next year although it's possible they could move him if they get an offer than blows them away.

Domingo Santana's $5 million team option will be declined.

We could end up with basically the same team as this year minus Lindor and Hand while reducing payroll substantially.

I could see a rotation of Bieber, Clevinger, Civale, Plesac, and McKenzie with a bullpen core of Carrasco, Wittgren, Maton, Clase, and Karinchak. That would be an amazing staff. We'd have to use the financial savings to sign a shortstop similar to the Cesar Hernandez signing of this year. That team would win a lot of games.

So much will be determined by what happens by Monday. They should look to deal Hand and Clevinger now. What is brought back in return will help clear up the 21 roster. I find it hard to believe that they will pay Los $17.5M next season. I also find it hard to believe that they will pull the trigger on a Lindor deal. They would have to be absolutely blown away, but it could happen. While subtracting Lindor and Hand from the payroll would reduce it substantially, wouldn't subtracting Clevinger, Hand, and Santana reduce it as much or more?

 

[DCTribefan]

So much will be determined by what happens by Monday. They should look to deal Hand and Clevinger now. What is brought back in return will help clear up the 21 roster. I find it hard to believe that they will pay Los $17.5M next season. I also find it hard to believe that they will pull the trigger on a Lindor deal. They would have to be absolutely blown away, but it could happen. While subtracting Lindor and Hand from the payroll would reduce it substantially, wouldn't subtracting Clevinger, Hand, and Santana reduce it as much or more?

Yes it would. Your math is correct.

 

[xmasbuck]

So much will be determined by what happens by Monday. They should look to deal Hand and Clevinger now. What is brought back in return will help clear up the 21 roster. I find it hard to believe that they will pay Los $17.5M next season. I also find it hard to believe that they will pull the trigger on a Lindor deal. They would have to be absolutely blown away, but it could happen. While subtracting Lindor and Hand from the payroll would reduce it substantially, wouldn't subtracting Clevinger, Hand, and Santana reduce it as much or more?

god love him and all but why not shop cookie at 12 mil

 

[sportscoach]

god love him and all but why not shop cookie at 12 mil

Cookie resigned essentially to retire as an Indian, so the Indians will honor that because that is the type of organization they are

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

While subtracting Lindor and Hand from the payroll would reduce it substantially, wouldn't subtracting Clevinger, Hand, and Santana reduce it as much or more?

You included Hand in both groups. I was suggesting they trade Lindor, which they almost have to do since he has one year left before free agency. They aren't going to let him walk like they did with Brantley when they can get a haul probably greater than what they got for Bauer and Kluber.

I think they will decline Santana's option and try to sign him for $10 million or thereabouts. I don't think anyone will offer him a lot more and he wants to stay here. Maybe something like $18 million for two years.

As for Clevinger, I think he will be affordable. His salary for this year would have been $4 million and even if he gets a 50% increase next year he's a huge bargain. Trading him would not free up that much money. And to be honest, I'm salivating over a rotation of Bieber, Clev, Civale, Plesac, and McKenzie next year. We could potentially have five #1 starters! We could lose Lindor's offensive production and still win the division.

With Carrasco going to the bullpen and Clase returning along with the emergence of Karinchak and Maton, not to mention Cimber is having a terrific season since getting his arm angle corrected, we can afford to let Hand go. So we lose the salaries of Lindor and Hand and we save $7 million or so on Santana. We also decline Domingo Santana.

I'm trying to walk the line between keeping the team at the 90-100 win level while significantly reducing salary but not blowing it all up.

 

[sportscoach]

SportsCoach...

Sorry I lost you in some numbers … trying to summarize a different way (sorry if off a bit as I am running to get my son soon)

Current Year - $95 million

Planned Raises - $10 (Perez, Hand, Ramirez Cookie)

Santana (3) (He gets $17.5 each year but this year due $3 mill prorated signing bonus?)

Arbitration Inc 20 (most for Lindor and Clevinger – about $14 million)

Cuts (13) (Domingo $1, Cimber $1, DeShields $2 Hernandez $6, O Perez and Leon $1.5 each)

Trade Clev (10) (this assumes $4 this year plus $6 in arbitration)

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Puts us at $99 mill (with Hand $10, Santana $17.5 , Lindor at $25) – as I said, we can cut to $95 by renegotiating Santana down a few million)

So yes … around $95 … we can keep 3 of Hand, Clev, Lindor and Santana … but lose Hernandez (and still need backup catcher for Leon ...assume you meant Leone) … If it goes down to $80 million … we lose Santana or Hand

Some of the numbers are wrong, but essentially you have the idea.

Either way, the FO has to figure out the the budget and who is a priority to keep since it will be impossible to keep all those 4 guys.

The numbers and depth, say Clev will be traded in my mind.

Can Hand and Perez be replaced as lefties/late inning guys internally? If the FO says yes, Hand's option won't be taken.

Can we replace Santana's production internally if he decides to walk if we dont take his option?

Can we replace Lindors production internally?

On paper moving both Clev and Lindor should get a legit SS prospect/stop gap SS back that could batting wise replace him with something decent.

 

[TFIR]

OK this deal just happened. It is an example of how 2020 trades might occur due to the lack of minors this year. Obviously PTBNL will be prominent but also this:

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the White Sox have acquired Jarrod Dyson from the Pirates in exchange for international bonus pool money.

 

[sportscoach]

OK this deal just happened. It is an example of how 2020 trades might occur due to the lack of minors this year. Obviously PTBNL will be prominent but also this:

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the White Sox have acquired Jarrod Dyson from the Pirates in exchange for international bonus pool money.

I dont think this will be a super busy trade deadline, but I would say Cleveland will at least try and make this type of trade for an OF bat.

 

[Huber.]

I dont think this will be a super busy trade deadline, but I would say Cleveland will at least try and make this type of trade for an OF bat.

Perhaps vets that are on expiring contracts will request trades or threaten to go home a month early after acquiring a year of service time.

 

[Urban]

I know I am a few days late on the subject, but in my opinion, I think it is more likely that the Indians pick up Santana's option and flip him (a la Kluber) than keep him at $17.5m

Not based on anything but my opinion/feeling, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Indians trade away high salary vets (Santana, Hand, Lindor, Clevinger) to retool with near-term assets who will help contribute to the new emerging core of players.

 

[avs2000]

I know I am a few days late on the subject, but in my opinion, I think it is more likely that the Indians pick up Santana's option and flip him (a la Kluber) than keep him at $17.5m

Not based on anything but my opinion/feeling, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Indians trade away high salary vets (Santana, Hand, Lindor, Clevinger) to retool with near-term assets who will help contribute to the new emerging core of players.

I am for that route. Those 4 should bring a plethora of young quality controllable players

 

[sportscoach]

I am for that route. Those 4 should bring a plethora of young quality controllable players

My biggest issue with that is in 21, on paper, we have a legit chance to make the post season still and win it all. We trade/cut all 4 guys, we aren't making the playoffs in 21 or 22. We would have a solid team, but i dont know how we are going to get the hitting talent anywhere near Chicago and Chicago has a ton of money to sign starting pitching. They are a favorite to win it going into 22 right now.

I know people are like thats way to far ahead to project and blah blah blah, but if you look at the Chicago roster a ton of the young hitters are up now and doing fairly well plus they are under team control already because they have been extending guys early. They have a decent pitching staff as well, you add another ace in free agency for the 22 season, i dont think the Indians will be able to compete.

I guess what I am saying is the fact, we might have to wait 3-4 years if we get rid of Hernandez, Clev, Hand, Santana, O. Perez, and Lindor for the 21 season. On paper with Twins, Chicago and us all being equal overall (Indians having high pitching, so-so hitting) and the other two teams (middle of the road pitching, but great hitting) where are the guys that can replace those guys from within the organization?

 

[NEOLeo]

My biggest issue with that is in 21, on paper, we have a legit chance to make the post season still and win it all. We trade/cut all 4 guys, we aren't making the playoffs in 21 or 22. We would have a solid team, but i dont know how we are going to get the hitting talent anywhere near Chicago and Chicago has a ton of money to sign starting pitching. They are a favorite to win it going into 22 right now.

I know people are like thats way to far ahead to project and blah blah blah, but if you look at the Chicago roster a ton of the young hitters are up now and doing fairly well plus they are under team control already because they have been extending guys early. They have a decent pitching staff as well, you add another ace in free agency for the 22 season, i dont think the Indians will be able to compete.

I guess what I am saying is the fact, we might have to wait 3-4 years if we get rid of Hernandez, Clev, Hand, Santana, O. Perez, and Lindor for the 21 season. On paper with Twins, Chicago and us all being equal overall (Indians having high pitching, so-so hitting) and the other two teams (middle of the road pitching, but great hitting) where are the guys that can replace those guys from within the organization?

It’s a great question and why I don’t think these guys will be dumped. To be fair, I don’t think Pluto meant that Frankie would be dumped as a salary casualty after this year when he said he’ll make over $20M in 2021 and “the Tribe won’t pay him that”. I think he meant they’ll trade him this off season and he’ll be getting paid that much by someone else.

But to suggest that they’re simply going to cut guys like Hand and Santana I think is crazy. They will either be traded for cheaper controllable assets (Hand), or renegotiated at a lower annual salary (Santana).

The returns for Clev, Frankie and Hand, along with Nolan Jones, then become the answer to your question.