I guess this is the part I disagree with. No one is omniscient or clairvoyant and by this logic, I feel like you could qualify or knock any Pro Bowl player taken after the 3rd Round, right? If GM knew this prospect was going to turn into a Pro Bowl caliber guy, why didn't he take him in the 2nd round?
In the same draft, the Ravens took Mark Andrews in the 3rd-86th overall. Andrews is now arguably a Top 5 TE, certainly Top 10. I think we'd all agree that turned out to be a great pick. Upon a closer look, the Ravens took a different TE earlier in the draft 2nd TE (Hayden Hurst 1-25) and they could've taken Andrews at 3-83, but took Orlando Brown instead. Does that make you think less of the pick? I suppose it's fair to, but I guess I just look at it as a hit or a miss. And Andrews was a big hit considering his draft position.