Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[Cavatt]

Sure, 10 spots......but 39 players got at least 1 vote. That is all I was pointing out. The notion a player could be elite at something and then not get a single vot relative to the size of the voting pool.

Generally, is it your view that youth inhibits defensive production? Just as a concept moving forward?

I think there is a good argument for offensive production lagging in your teens, or 20 year......but a lot of young guys make All-Defensive teams right out of the gate.

So I'm fine giving Isaac more time but his ascension as a defensive player, relative to the league, should probably be pretty quick if his other development continues to plateau. I guess that is all I would leave it as.

Larry Nance is also not a good defender as evidenced by no votes. Doesn't matter that he led the league in steals while he was healthy.

QED

 

[I'mWithDan]

Larry Nance is also not a good defender as evidenced by no votes. Doesn't matter that he led the league in steals while he was healthy.

QED

@Cavatt Come on.

A guy playing his usual quarter to half a season and a guy playing 2100+ minutes aren't exactly the same thing are they?

I do believe guys can be good defenders without getting things like All-Defense votes, I have said Okoro is in that above average / good zone. I was responding to this notion that he's somehow an elite defender, played the entire season but didn't manage to get a single vote from someone.

My general belief, in that scenario, would maybe be that people are exaggerating his skill and impact at this point.

 

[Cavatt]

@Cavatt Come on.

A guy playing his usual quarter to half a season and a guy playing 2100+ minutes aren't exactly the same thing are they?

I do believe guys can be good defenders without getting things like All-Defense votes, I have said Okoro is in that above average / good zone. I was responding to this notion that he's somehow an elite defender, played the entire season but didn't manage to get a single vote from someone.

My general belief, in that scenario, would maybe be that people are exaggerating his skill and impact at this point.

Please explain what did he make the 2nd rookie team for? Offense? Is one award legit and the other bogus?

I can tell you exactly how you can know he is a good defender. Trae had very little impact on the game. Why couldn't your boy Thybulle do that? Why couldn't DPOY candidate Ben Simmons do that?

His defense is different. He just keeps guys from getting to their spots and he is especially good guarding guys whose primary threat is the pass. Harden, Simmons, Trae all struggle against him. Lebron didn't, but he cut off his passes too and Lebron had to shoot over him. People kept saying "well guys just shot over him", well he forced them to do that because they can't drive and they can't pass. Guys who can make tough shots will score on him.

I'm the biggest Okoro fan, and I am totally willing to say his improvement on offense has been non-existent or at least underwhelming. But trying to tell us he is not better than an average defender is not what anyone is seeing out there.

 

[weepinwillow]

Sure, 10 spots......but 39 players got at least 1 vote. That is all I was pointing out. The notion a player could be elite at something and then not get a single vot relative to the size of the voting pool.

Generally, is it your view that youth inhibits defensive production? Just as a concept moving forward?

I think there is a good argument for offensive production lagging in your teens, or 20 year......but a lot of young guys make All-Defensive teams right out of the gate.

So I'm fine giving Isaac more time but his ascension as a defensive player, relative to the league, should probably be pretty quick if his other development continues to plateau. I guess that is all I would leave it as.

Experience.. typically I find young guys aren't ready for what vets throw at them. Once you get to know the league, and what players like to do, if you are a good defender and a smart defender, you know what to take away. We will see how Okoro elevates his defense this year now that he's seen the league for a season.

Here is a list of the last 5 years of All Defensive 1st and 2nd teamers. Almost all these guys had at least 4-5 years in the NBA under their belt, and many of them had even more seasons.
2017:



2018:

2019:

2020:

2021:

Thybulle seems like an outlier more than a constant here, and that was his 2nd year, playing on a very good 76ers team who had one of the better defenses in the EC.

 

[rastamon87]

@Cavatt Come on.

A guy playing his usual quarter to half a season and a guy playing 2100+ minutes aren't exactly the same thing are they?

I do believe guys can be good defenders without getting things like All-Defense votes, I have said Okoro is in that above average / good zone. I was responding to this notion that he's somehow an elite defender, played the entire season but didn't manage to get a single vote from someone.

My general belief, in that scenario, would maybe be that people are exaggerating his skill and impact at this point.

How is he doing in Portland?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Please explain what did he make the 2nd rookie team for? Offense? Is one award legit and the other bogus?

I'm not saying any award is bogus. We are kind of going off in this other direction here. I haven't dismissed his selection on any team. It was in response to this notion that he was an elite defender already. What elite defender isn't getting a single All-Defense vote? That was the question. I'm not discounting his All-Rookie selection.

Why couldn't your boy Thybulle do that?

Look, keep my boy out of this.

Thybulle also received a vote in his rookie season. Thybulle was All-Defense in year 2.

Isaac can shut me up if he does that. I'll eat a giant pile of crow.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Here is a list of the last 5 years of All Defensive 1st and 2nd teamers. Almost all these guys had at least 4-5 years in the NBA under their belt, and many of them had even more seasons.

Who are the comps on this list to you? I would tend to think, relative to draft capital, it would be Smart wouldn't it?

I'll be interested to see how Okoro's numbers shift, now that he is on a better defensive team, with better back line help.

Rookie seasons:

Smart (#6 pick): 7.1 FGA, 0.7 VORP, 1.5 DBPM, 27 MPG, Age 20
Okoro (#5 pick): 8.3 FGA, -1.6 VORP, -0.8 DBPM, 32 MPG, Age 20

So I think, being in a better situation with a clearly defined role, I would hope to see Okoro's 2021-2022 season simply be on par with Smart's rookie year.

 

[kookoo]

Okoro absolutely needs to gain a consistent jumper if he wants to play an important role on this squad. If he can hit that shot, he'd be a perfect 2 guard with Sexton on the bench.

 

[Cavatt]

I'm not saying any award is bogus. We are kind of going off in this other direction here. I haven't dismissed his selection on any team. It was in response to this notion that he was an elite defender already. What elite defender isn't getting a single All-Defense vote? That was the question. I'm not discounting his All-Rookie selection.



Look, keep my boy out of this.

Thybulle also received a vote in his rookie season. Thybulle was All-Defense in year 2.

Isaac can shut me up if he does that. I'll eat a giant pile of crow.

It wasn't just elite. You said he was average.

He's doing things guys who got recognition couldn't. We can pretend it is an accident, but we have won 3/4 games against the Hawks in 2 years, won the season series against Philly 2/3 last year, as well as Brooklyn 2/3. Heliocentric offenses with guys whose main weapon is the pass.

I mean that Rubio, Okoro, Lauri, Mobley, Allen lineup looks stifling. Nobody can score.

Let's just watch while Okoro is out. Maybe Stevens comes in and we don't miss a beat.

 

[Fish Monger]

Okoro absolutely needs to gain a consistent jumper if he wants to play an important role on this squad. If he can hit that shot, he'd be a perfect 2 guard with Sexton on the bench.

I'd argue that he's already playing an important role, albeit an unsexy one, with no jump shot at all.

Obviously a consistent jumper is necessary for him to maximize his impact on the game, but let's not minimize what he brings to this squad based on the things that he doesn't yet bring.

 

[kookoo]

I'd argue that he's already playing an important role, albeit an unsexy one, with no jump shot at all.

Obviously a consistent jumper is necessary for him to maximize his impact on the game, but let's not minimize what he brings to this squad based on the things that he doesn't yet bring.

He's been quite inconsistent with his defense and he doesn't cut to the rim as often as I'd like him to. But regardless of his defense, if he's not able to shoot even average, he becomes useless in close games, when we will likely have Allen and Mobley out there. He's also a suspect free throw shooter. Also, at #5, his ceiling can't just be a less defensive Tony Allen... Which is what he's currently looking like.

And honestly, the expectations aren't even high. He just looks very uncomfortable even attempting the 3 ball. Hesitance kills confidence. He's never going to be expected to be the guy offensively, but he needs to keep the defense honest.

 

[Fish Monger]

He's been quite inconsistent with his defense and he doesn't cut to the rim as often as I'd like him to. But regardless of his defense, if he's not able to shoot even average, he becomes useless in close games, when we will likely have Allen and Mobley out there. He's also a suspect free throw shooter. Also, at #5, his ceiling can't just be a less defensive Tony Allen... Which is what he's currently looking like.

And honestly, the expectations aren't even high. He just looks very uncomfortable even attempting the 3 ball. Hesitance kills confidence. He's never going to be expected to be the guy offensively, but he needs to keep the defense honest.

A lot of words and personal gripes in there, but none of that has anything to do with your initial assertion that he doesn't play an important role on this team.

 

[I'mWithDan]

It wasn't just elite. You said he was average.

He's doing things guys who got recognition couldn't. We can pretend it is an accident, but we have won 3/4 games against the Hawks in 2 years, won the season series against Philly 2/3 last year, as well as Brooklyn 2/3. Heliocentric offenses with guys whose main weapon is the pass.

I mean that Rubio, Okoro, Lauri, Mobley, Allen lineup looks stifling. Nobody can score.

Let's just watch while Okoro is out. Maybe Stevens comes in and we don't miss a beat.

Maybe I have found the metric that somewhat correlates to what you all are seeing?

All defensive vote getters, isolated to wing defenders, sorted by DRAPM.

I more so was just going through everything I had and thinking, "Ok, there is a good amount of people that maybe don't have the viewpoint I do, where is some data that supports this". This probably also asks why the hell Spider got votes here.

Here are these numbers relative to rookie team vote getters. I also want to point out these isolated RAPM numbers ranked my sweet prince lower than Isaac. So I can take the L there on this data set.

 

[kookoo]

A lot of words and personal gripes in there, but none of that has anything to do with your initial assertion that he doesn't play an important role on this team.

Have you watched modern basketball by chance? Being a starter where your only role is defending is pretty much career suicide. If you consider doing one thing 'important', that's a low bar to set for a lottery pick First off, he's not an amazing defender. I've seen him get lost plenty of times. His best defense this season so far has been against Austin Rivers. Not being able to shoot, not cutting often, not being a good ball handler, ect. Those aren't personal gripes.. Those are legitimate issues. His rebounding is also extremely poor.

He's a solid 3 point line defender, but his defensive fg% last season was just over 50%... If that's what he's doing as an 'important role', your standards are quite low. Your personal favouritism towards Isaac is clearly clouding your judgement from correctly assessing his play. So maybe do some legitimate research before you respond to people.

 

[weepinwillow]

Who are the comps on this list to you? I would tend to think, relative to draft capital, it would be Smart wouldn't it?

I'll be interested to see how Okoro's numbers shift, now that he is on a better defensive team, with better back line help.

Rookie seasons:

Smart (#6 pick): 7.1 FGA, 0.7 VORP, 1.5 DBPM, 27 MPG, Age 20
Okoro (#5 pick): 8.3 FGA, -1.6 VORP, -0.8 DBPM, 32 MPG, Age 20

So I think, being in a better situation with a clearly defined role, I would hope to see Okoro's 2021-2022 season simply be on par with Smart's rookie year.

Do you look at it as "where drafted" or "where ranked in draft class" (after all is said and done)? I have always felt that in every draft there are 7-9 guys who end up being really good to great NBA players and they can be found up and down the draft board. Some drafts might have a few more "just a guy" players than others, but it feels like that 7-9 range is pretty consistent for really good to great players.
So the "where drafted" comp points to Smart for sure. The where ranked in draft class comp for how good I think Okoro can eventually be is somewhere around Tony Allen (floor) to Jimmy Butler (ceiling w/an attic).